This is it – the week NFL draft nuts have been waiting for. Soon enough, prospects will know what cities they’re headed to and draft mock experts everywhere will look like idiots when less than half of their predictions are correct despite spending hours of time researching the picks.

I say it every year – the NFL draft is a crapshoot in terms of trying to make predictions. Nobody knows how high prospects are rated on draft boards around the league except the teams themselves. So while it’s fun to project who will go where, nobody has a clue – not Mike Mayock, not Mel Kiper and certainly not Anthony Stalter. (Did I just refer to myself in the third person? What a joke.)

The following is my third and final mock of the first round. In my previous two mocks, I had some fun by predicting potential trades that could play out, but I won’t do it here. I’m playing this mock “straight up” because predicting trades in the first round is harder to do than predicting what kind of mood Billy Bob Thornton will be in when he sits down to give an interview. Zing!

Some of you will inevitably feel as though that I have teams reaching with their picks. That’s fine, but realize that reaches are going to happen come Saturday because they’re just a part of the draft. If you disagree with any of my picks, go ahead and let me hear about it in the comments section. After all, the NFL draft is a spectacle and it’s supposed to be fun for fans. Enjoy all the action on Saturday and good luck to your favorite team on draft weekend.

(Click here to see Mock Draft Version 1.0 and Mock Draft Version 2.0)

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In my first attempt to project the first round of the 2009 NFL Draft, I predicted the Lions to take Georgia’s Matthew Stafford with the first overall pick, Alabama’s offensive tackle Andre Smith to fall out of the top 15 and I also drummed up a potential swap between the Browns and 49ers so that San Fran could land USC signal caller Mark Sanchez.

But to paraphrase that overactor Nicholas Cage in “The Rock”: Gee, kind of a lot has happened since then. Most notably the Bears sending two first round picks to the Broncos for quarterback Jay Cutler and the Giants’ release of receiver Plaxico Burress.

Here’s my second attempt at projecting the first round of this month’s draft. As always, feel free to criticize in the comments section, but remember that I’m a human – I have feelings, too, damn it. So be gentle.

(Click here to see Mock Draft Version 1.0)

1. Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
Mock 1.0 Projection: Stafford
Nothing in the past couple of weeks has changed my mind about Stafford eventually winding up in Detroit. GM Martin Mayhew reportedly wants to trade this selection because of the financial burden that is bestowed upon having the top overall pick, but other teams don’t want it for the same reason. In the end, Jason Smith (Baylor) and Eugene Monroe (Virginia) are both very good options here, but the Lions were reportedly very impressed with Stafford’s private workout and you know what? They simply need a quarterback.

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Growing up, we were all told that if we studied hard enough, we’d ace tests, understand our homework and get good grades in school.

What’s funny is that same philosophy can be applied to NFL teams when they scout the draft, yet they’re not guaranteed to succeed in the end. Teams pour countless of hours into scouting the draft and yet they still wind up failing by selecting players that turn out to be busts.

Pundits will brag that it’s easy to spot potential first round busts, yet teams continue to draft flops every April. The teams that usually do well (Steelers, Patriots, Colts, etc.), are the ones that can spot players that fit their specific offensive or defensive schemes. They limit the risk of taking a bust because they can scout prospects that fit specific roles within their overall team philosophies.

But for the teams that are still enamored with drafting the best player available regardless of scheme, or the ones that draft for need and ignore everything else, I’ve ranked the top 5 potential first round busts in this year’s NFL draft. Granted, it’s easy to list all of a player’s weaknesses and label them as a potential bust, but I tried to compile the five prospects that demonstrate specific concerns for pro teams.

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FOX Sports.com previewed the Illinois-Missouri game this Saturday. FOX thinks the Illini will keep it close.

No. 6 Missouri vs. No. 20 Illinois at St. Louis, — Saturday at 8:30 p.m. ET

Last year at this time, would you have believed that this matchup would be a battle between a future No. 1 Missouri and a Rose Bowl-bound Illinois? The Tigers won 40-34 after jumping out to a big early lead and then hanging on, and now they’re looking to make a big early statement as the potential star of the Big 12, or at least the North.

On the other side, Illinois has far more rebounding to do and far more question marks, but this is still a strong team that’s looking to improve upon last year’s breakout success. It might be a big upset if the Illini can pull off the win, but it would be a huge feather in the Big Ten’s cap if it happens.
Meanwhile, if the Big 12 really is supposed to be a challenger to the SEC in the best-conference-in-America argument, Mizzou can’t just win, but it has to win convincingly.

It’s a BCS-game being played in August, and it’s one of the marquee non-conference games of 2008.
This should be a better defensive battle than last year’s shootout, at least for the first half, and then the quarterbacks will take over. Both Daniel and Williams will be tremendous, but the Tiger defense will be a little bit better, and the offense will be more efficient when it needs to be.

Prediction: Missouri 34 … Illinois 27

I don’t see it – a close game, that is. I know this series is usually close and the Illini have an underrated defense, but who doesn’t like the Tigers’ explosive offense on the fast track of the Edward Jones Dome? I fully expect Daniel to stay away from corner Vontae Davis and exploit the rest of Illinois’ below average secondary.

Missouri is currently 8.5-point favorites. I’ll say Tigers win by 10 at least.