The NFL draft never unravels the way we expect. In the months leading up to the event, we discuss a multitude of scenarios surrounding our favorite teams and yet, there are always a handful of surprises in the first round.

That said, don’t be surprised if…

…Florida State quarterback E.J. Manuel is selected in the first round.
Out of all of the quarterbacks in this year’s draft class, Manuel is the best fit for the read-option (i.e. the NFL’s hottest trend). If a team were to take a chance on a quarterback in the first round, it would for Manuel – not USC’s Matt Barkley, who doesn’t have great arm strength and who is coming off a shoulder injury. While his accuracy and decision making need to improve, Manuel is described as a natural leader with great athleticism, prototypical height and above average arm strength. He’s also been invited to attend Radio City Music Hall, indicating that he’ll be a top 40 selection.

…the two guards aren’t selected in the top 15.
Over the past three months, Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper have drawn rave reviews from scouts and draftniks alike. In fact, Warmack is a popular pick for the Titans at No. 10 in most mocks, and Cooper is often listed in the teens. But not many mocks had Stanford’s David DeCastro falling out of the top 15 last year and he made it all the way to the Steelers at No. 24 overall. The fact is that teams don’t value guards as highly as draftniks do, not even elite prospects like Warmack and Cooper. Since 2004, the average draft position for guards in the first round is pick No. 23.

…Tavon Austin drops out of the top 15.
The NFL is about height, weight and speed. It’s why hundreds of grown men flock to Indianapolis every year to pour over measurements and forty-yard dash numbers for nearly a week. There’s plenty of buzz that Austin could be selected in the top 15, but his lack of size would suggest otherwise. He’s 5’8″ and 174 pounds, which is right at the NFL minimum for wide receiver prospects. Granted, his 4.3 speed and playmaking ability make him a surefire first-rounder, but this notion that he’ll be taken in the top 10 seems absurd. The Rams have the No. 16 selection. If you’re looking for the perfect over/under for Austin’s draft projection, start with that number.

…the Dolphins trade into the top 5.
There’s been talk about Miami trading into the top 10 but why would Jeff Ireland stop there? He was the most active general manager in free agency and he knows his team needs to find a replacement for Jake Long (FA/Rams). Thus, why trade ahead of the Cardinals at No. 7 in efforts to land Oklahoma’s Lane Johnson when he might be able to get into the top 5 and nab an elite left tackle prospect like Central Michigan’s Eric Fisher? The Raiders own the No. 3 overall pick and might make the perfect trade partner seeing as how a) they lack picks due to Hue Jackson’s boneheaded trade for Carson Palmer two years ago and b) they select directly ahead of Philadelphia and Detroit, which also need offensive line help. Ireland has seemingly made aggressive move after aggressive move this offseason in efforts to save his job in Miami. What’s one more on draft night?

…the Jaguars take Geno Smith.
The most popular pick to Jacksonville at No. 2 is Oregon defensive end/linebacker Dion Jordan, which makes sense given the team’s need at pass rusher. But neither David Caldwell nor Gus Bradley drafted Blaine Gabbert, which means there’s no loyalty there. How many times do we see new head coaches and/or general managers take over a team and one of their first moves is to acquire a franchise signal caller? Smith isn’t close to being a top 5 pick but he plays the most coveted position in the NFL and he is the best quarterback prospect in this draft. He could wind up sinking the Jaguars further into NFL oblivion but chances are Caldwell and Bradley are willing to take that chance.

+ There’s a large contingent that feels as though Jerry Jones has condemned his own team by handing Tony Romo a six-year, $108 million contract extension that includes $55 million guaranteed. And who could blame them? Romo is a competitor and a leader. Outside of missing 10 games in 2010 due to a shoulder injury, he’s durable and has eclipsed 4,000 yards passing in four of his last six seasons. He’s also 1-3 in the postseason and has a nasty habit of saving his worst effort for the most crucial of moments. How could any Dallas fan be okay with rewarding what essentially amounts to mediocrity? But survey the league. There are at least 10 teams that would gladly guarantee Romo $55 million if he could suit up for them. Jones is rolling the dice that Romo will eventually prosper in those moments that have ruined him in the past. He’d rather continue to invest in the undrafted gem that he signed in 2003 instead of starting all over again at the position next year. And maybe he’ll eventually be undone by his unwavering loyalty, but it’s not as if the Cowboys developed any Pro Bowlers in the years between Troy Aikman and Romo. For better or worse, Jones has pushed Romo and a large chunk of his money into the middle of the pot and said, “All in.” We’ll see if the gamble pays off in the upcoming years.

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Jason Whitlock has an interesting take on Robert Griffin III and the impressive 40-time he displayed at the combine.

In my opinion, Griffin’s speed doesn’t enhance his draft stock. It damages it.

I am not a Robert Griffin hater. I love RG3. In all likelihood, he will be my favorite NFL player next season. He could quickly become my favorite active athlete, ahead of Tiger Woods, Ray Lewis and Jeff George (has yet to file his retirement paperwork).

But I’m worried about Griffin. He’s blessed with too many tools. Oftentimes, the greatest athletes are physically limited, which strengthens their focus. Bill Russell could never match Wilt Chamberlain’s size and limitless athleticism. Larry Bird and Magic Johnson weren’t the greatest leapers or the quickest on their feet.

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are relatively immobile. They play from the pocket because they have no choice. They mastered the art of playing from the pocket because they had no other choice.

NFL games are won most consistently by quarterbacks who play from the pocket. If a quarterback leaves the pocket, he’s going to get hit. If a quarterback gets hit regularly, he’s going to get hurt. If a franchise quarterback gets injured, his team has little chance of winning the Super Bowl.

NFL teams are looking for the next Manning or Brady. Or the next Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger. A little mobility is good, especially if the quarterback moves in the pocket in an effort to throw downfield. Rodgers and Big Ben are terrific at moving to throw. Is that how Griffin will use his athleticism?

Or does Griffin have so much speed that he’ll channel Michael Vick?

Whitlock goes on to recount Vick’s early problems as he relied too much on his speed and athleticism. Athletes like Steve Young had to learn how to stay in the pocket.

Whitlock basically sums up the primary reason why Andrew Luck is rated higher than RG3, even as some think RG3 has more upside. It’s a risk/reward analysis. Luck has shown that he can win strictly as a pocket passer, using his athleticism only when needed.

Can RG3 learn to play that way? Of course he can. But just because he has the aptitude and temperament to learn doesn’t guarantee success. Luck isn’t guaranteed success either, but we’ve seen him operate consistently from the pocket, so there’s less risk.

When the Cleveland Browns traded the No. 6 overall pick in last year’s NFL draft, they received quite the haul from the Atlanta Falcons (who used that pick to select Alabama wideout Julio Jones). And now the Browns seem unwilling to part with one of the key pieces from that deal in order to move up in this year’s draft.

According to a report by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Redskins continue to be the “frontrunner” to acquire the Rams’ No. 2 overall pick. That’s apparently because the Browns are unwilling to part with the No. 22 overall pick, which they acquired from the Falcons last year in the Jones trade. (Cleveland also owns the No. 4 overall pick this year.)

The Redskins are reportedly willing to part with both their 2012 and 2013 first-round picks in order to move up to the No. 2 spot, but don’t want to trade their second-rounder.

A deal with the Dolphins, meanwhile, appears to be “dead in the water” according to the Post-Dispatch. After losing out to St. Louis in the Jeff Fisher sweepstakes, Miami isn’t too eager to make any deals with the Rams. The Seahawks aren’t a realistic trade partner either, as the Rams don’t want to deal with the prospect of facing Robert Griffin III twice a year from here on out.

Thus, it appears as though the Rams’ best two options remain the Browns and the Redskins. And if Washington were willing to part with two first-round picks, it would behoove St. Louis to make a deal with the Skins. But per the above report, Washington’s unwillingness to part with its second-rounder is “unacceptable” to the Rams, so you get the feeling that this storyline will only get more intriguing the closer we get to April’s draft.

A couple of months ago I did division-by-division draft needs for every team. But now that we’re a couple of hours away from Roger Goodell taking the stage at Radio City Music Hall, I’ve decided to put together an updated post together on all 32 teams. So below you’ll find team-by-team needs for the NFC, as well as a quick summary for each division. (Click here to check out the AFC.)

NFC East

Cowboys: OT, DE, OG, S, CB
Giants: OT, OLB, ILB
Eagles: OL, LB, CB
Redskins: QB, WR, RB, OL, DE, ILB, CB, S

Quick & Dirty Summary: The Cowboys’ biggest need is arguably safety, although there won’t be a safety worthy of taking at No. 9. If neither of the top corners (Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara) fall to them in the first round, it’s possible the ‘Boys will take the top OT on their board…The Giants don’t have a ton of holes to fill (at least not compared to other teams around the league), so they might draft the best player available at No. 19. But they’ll have to re-evaluate their offensive line at some point, which could mean drafting at OT and moving David Diehl inside…The Eagles had the worst red zone defense in the league last year and may look to remedy the situation by adding a cornerback in the first round, or a pass-rushing outside linebacker that can provide pressure off the edge…What don’t the Redskins need? With so many holes to address, it’s no wonder why Mike Shanahan said his team would like to acquire more picks. Quarterback is at the top of the list, but this is a team lacking playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Defensively, there are needs on almost every level.

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