Nobody knows how tonight’s picks will work out. But naturally everyone will have opinions.
I’m more interested in overall strategy as opposed to making definitive statements about specific players. Good drafting is about more than player valuation. It’s mostly about probability analysis. The teams that forget that and fall in love with players usually end up making mistakes.
Let’s start with the Texans. This team has a horrible roster, and they have an owner that likes to meddle. They’re also on their third head coach in three years. Basically, the organization is a dumpster fire.
Despite that, the Texans were sitting on a ton of draft capital as a result of last year’s Deshaun Watson trade with the Browns. If they sat back and let the draft come to them, they could load up on talent this year and next.
But these are the Texans, so chaos rules. The owner wanted a quarterback, so they draft C.J. Stroud with the second pick of the draft. Solid pick. Now they could wait till pick #12 and get another very good player.
The Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay may end up as one of the greatest blown opportunities in NFL history. Winning one Super Bowl with a talent like Rodgers is just not good enough.
Of course, the Packers still have Rodgers, and they played for the NFC championship last season. So what did they do heading into a draft loaded at the wide receiver position in a year where they really needed to get Rodgers more weapons?
Aaron Rodgers' receivers cost him at least 648 yards last season because of drops. The average for qualifying quarterbacks was 282 and the second-placed quarterback had only 507. pic.twitter.com/UCkG2iYXpM
They drafted a quarterback in the first round. Jordan Love may end up being a great pick, but he doesn’t seem like a sure thing at this point. And while
April 19, 2020 ” target=”_blank”>Rodgers will say all the right things, he has to be pissed at the situation.
The Packers have a window to win an NFL championship that runs the length of time that Rodgers remains an elite quarterback. Yes, they need to think about the future, but they shouldn’t squander this opportunity.
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How bad can things get in New York? Dave Gettleman comes across as a caricature of a meathead sports executive who can’t seem to wrap his head around analytics and rational player evaluation. He goes by his considerable gut, and may end up making the New York Giants the laughing stock of the NFL.
Last year, Sam Darnold fell int his lap, but he passed and took a running back. This year, Josh Rosen was available for pennies on the dollar, and Gettleman passed again. Dwayne Haskins was available and yet Gettleman wasn’t interested. Oh, and he managed to get rid of Odell Beckham Jr. along the way as well.
Instead, Gettleman fell in love with Daniel Jones and drafted his with the 6th pick, even when he easily could have waited until pick 17. Jones seems like a great kid and a nice player, but there’s no way he’s worthy of the 6th pick in the draft based on his tape. The kid isn’t accurate and he doesn’t handle pressure well.
This pick is a disaster for the Giants, and this once-proud franchise is tuning into a joke.
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What’s going on in Oakland? Leading up to the draft it sounded like chaos in that building, and then Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock raised eyebrows during the draft. Clelin Ferrell is a very good player, but nobody thought he’d go in the top 10. But the Raiders decided to snag him at pick #4, even with tons of other talent sitting there on the board. Gruden has never been good at managing the draft, but you would think Mayock would have a clue about how to trade down, get more assets, and still get your man.
Only the idiocy of the Giants pushed this down as the top story.
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With over four months to go before the NFL Draft mercifully arrives on April 27th, we’re going to be hearing a ton about this draft class, particularly the quarterbacks. It’s fun now, and the Senior Bowl, combine and individual workouts will be interesting, but at some point we’ll reach information overload.
Perhaps at some point in the process we’ll be able to get beyond the DeShaun Watson hype that is naturally building following his epic performance against Alabama in the National Championship game. Watson is a fantastic prospect, and along with Mitch Trubisky, DeShone Kizer and Patrick Mahomes he leads an interesting if not overwhelming quarterback class for 2017.
The key is separating his college heroics from traits that will lead him to succeed or fail in the NFL. He certainly has the intangibles and was a great college QB, but we all know that’s nowhere near enough. Let’s see how this plays out.
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