The Deshaun Watson trade has rocked the NFL in many ways. After a grand jury in Texas decided against indicting Watson, the Browns won a bidding war to acquire the talented quarterback, and secured the deal with a fully-guaranteed contract for $230 million.

There was already plenty of controversy around any trade for Watson with 22 pending civil lawsuits, but the guaranteed money made the move even more controversial. NFL teams avoid large guarantees, and this contract blew away the guarantees given to other top quarterbacks. The fact that Watson, with all his legal troubles, was the recipient of this contract made it even worse for many. People will have different reactions to the Browns trading for someone saddled with these allegations, but the monetary award made it worse for many fans who felt that the Browns and the NFL were rewarding bad behavior.

But other NFL owners have also been complaining. They know that the Browns have turned the market upside down and that they will ultimately need to consider similar deals if they’re fortunate to land a top-tier quarterback. Baltimore Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti was vocal in his displeasure, not that the Browns or their fans give a damn what the owner of the Ravens thinks about this. The Ravens will have to pay Lamar Jackson, and Browns fans will be happy to see that franchise also saddled with a monster, guaranteed contract, as most Browns fans see Jackson as a more limited quarterback than Watson.

And that leads us to the real issue here. The game in the NFL has been changing as the rules make it easier and easier for elite quarterbacks to dominate the game. Sure, defenses can still make a difference, but a team’s chances of winning a Super Bowl are very low without one of the 8 – 10 elite quarterbacks in the game.

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The Baltimore Ravens started the season against the Miami Dolphins, easily one of the worst teams in NFL history. Then they played the woeful Arizona Cardinals. After easy wins, naturally many in the press jumped to the conclusion that the Ravens were one of the best teams in the NFL. Oh, and suddenly Lamar Jackson was a cut below Patrick Mahomes.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns had plenty of hype coming into the season, and many in the pressed relished watching them struggle in their opener and then suffer some horrible play calls from Freddie Kitchens last week against the Rams. Many loved mocking Baker Mayfield for his slow start.

This poll from last week summed up the silliness we’ve been hearing. Lamar Jackson is a very talented player with a unique skill set, but there’s no way you take him over Baker Mayfield.

Who would you rather build your franchise around?

— GMFB (@gmfb) September 28, 2019

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This video is pretty awesome, as Buffalo Bills players watch the Cincinnati Bengals pull off a late win over the Baltimore Ravens to help the Bills break the longest running playoff drought in the NFL.

GINGA TO BOYD! 6 Points!
We coming for you Marrone!!
😤😤😤😤
Drought. Broke. ✔️ pic.twitter.com/6B2AErra8L

— Buffalo Fanatics (@BuffFanatics) January 1, 2018

Mississippi vs. Alabama, 6:30PM ET
Alabama doesn’t look as dominant as it has in year’s past, and bettors have taken notice. The spread in this game has been bet down from one key number of 17, to another key number in 14. The Rebels have fared well against the Tide, covering in all four of their last four meetings with ‘Bama in Tuscaloosa. They’re also 6-2 against the spread in their last eight meetings overall with the Tide, while the road team is 5-0 against the number in the last five meetings between these two teams. Ole Miss has a balanced offensive attack thanks to quarterbacks Bo Wallace and Barry Brunetti, who is a running threat. The Rebels enter tonight’s game with plenty of confidence and should stay within two touchdowns of a Tide team that didn’t look sharp defensively two weeks ago versus A&M.
FREE PICK: OLE MISS +14

Wisconsin vs. Ohio State, 8:00PM ET
The Buckeyes have been flat-out dominant in their first three games and own the fourth-highest scoring offense in the country (52.5 points). But Braxton Miller is set to return tonight following a sprained left MCL injury suffered a few weeks ago. Rust might be a factor in the early going, which could give Wisconsin confidence for the rest of the game. The underdog is 10-3 against the spread in the last 13 meetings between these two teams and the Badgers are 4-0 against the number in their last four games overall. They’re also 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 conference games and have rushed for 387 yards or more in three of their four games. Look for Wisconsin to give Ohio State its first challenge of the season.
FREE PICK: WISCONSIN +6.5

Bengals vs. Browns, 1:00PM ET
The Bengals are coming off two emotional victories against Pittsburgh and Green Bay, and now has to travel to Cleveland and play a team in the Browns that they’re expected to beat. There’s always value in the home underdog, especially one in Cleveland that shocked bettors a week ago by beating Minnesota outright as a 6.5-point dog. The line in this game has been bet down from 5 to 3.5 despite the public siding with Cincinnati. The underdog is 10-1-1 against the spread in the last 12 meetings between these two teams and the Bengals are just 2-5-1 against the number in their last eight games versus the Browns. Look for a confident Cleveland team behind Brian Hoyer to keep this game within a field goal.
FREE PICK: BROWNS +3.5

Seahawks vs. Texans, 1:00PM ET
The Seahawks look every bit a Super Bowl contender in the early going. They suffered no letdown last Sunday when they thumped a brutal Jacksonville team a week after crushing division rival San Francisco on Sunday Night Football. But the Seahawks have never been a team that travels well and the Texans are licking their wounds after being embarrassed in Baltimore last week. Houston knows it can’t afford to fall behind in the AFC South, especially with Indianapolis playing Jacksonville this week. Look for the underdog Texans to win outright as a small home dog.
FREE PICK: TEXANS +1

Manning, Broncos stomp Ravens in opener by FOX Sports

The Broncos wanted revenge, but they got much more than that last night. Peyton Manning threw for seven touchdowns with no interceptions as he carved up the revamped Ravens defense.

How many “experts” were saying that the Ravens could be better on defense this year? The thought now seems like a joke. Of course they will get better, and it’s hard to prepare for Peyton Manning when you have a bunch of new players. But playing as a unit takes time, and the Ravens lost more than half of their defense! The results should not have been surprising.

Meanwhile, Joe Flacco was mediocre with two interceptions. It was hardly an endorsement of his monster contract.

So the Broncos have served notice that they can live up to the hype, and the Ravens have some work to do. But, just as a word of caution, you can never read too much into one NFL game. Things can change dramatically from week to week, so all is not lost for the Ravens . . . yet.