Nobody knows how tonight’s picks will work out. But naturally everyone will have opinions.
I’m more interested in overall strategy as opposed to making definitive statements about specific players. Good drafting is about more than player valuation. It’s mostly about probability analysis. The teams that forget that and fall in love with players usually end up making mistakes.
Let’s start with the Texans. This team has a horrible roster, and they have an owner that likes to meddle. They’re also on their third head coach in three years. Basically, the organization is a dumpster fire.
Despite that, the Texans were sitting on a ton of draft capital as a result of last year’s Deshaun Watson trade with the Browns. If they sat back and let the draft come to them, they could load up on talent this year and next.
But these are the Texans, so chaos rules. The owner wanted a quarterback, so they draft C.J. Stroud with the second pick of the draft. Solid pick. Now they could wait till pick #12 and get another very good player.
The NFL season kicks off tonight with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs taking on DeShaun Watson and the Houston Texans. It’s a battle of two of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league so this one should be fun. Can the defending champs cover a big line tonight?
You can see all the current NFL lines here and also check out the video above. One of many interesting games has Miami getting 6.5 points on the road against New England. The key here is that Miami is an up-and-coming team, while New England starts the post-Tom Brady era. Cam Newton gets the nod, and that would not make me feel comfortable about laying down the points.
Who anointed Bill O’Brien as a quarterback guru? Sure, he coached Tom Brady in his prime, but wouldn’t Brady make any quarterback coach and offensive coordinator look good?
O’Brien’s track record in Houston with his quarterbacks is an embarrassment, and things took a turn for the worse on opening day as he benched his starter for the second time in three years on opening day. What a joke . . .
And now they’re throwing Deshaun Watson into the fire on Thursday night against the Bengals behind their miserable offensive line. Watson may be better than Tom Savage, but he’s a rookie with a weak arm and was probably overdrafted due to his incredible college career.
This looks like an impending disaster, and Browns fans can rejoice as they have the first two Texans draft picks in 2018!
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The NFL can’t be too happy with the Raiders-Texans matchup this weekend. After the injury to Derek Carr, the Raiders are stuck with rookie QB Connor Cook starting this weekend. He was passed over by a number of teams in the draft last year and got plucked by the Raiders in the 4th round. The kid has some talent even if many question his leadership, but it’s tough for anyone to start their first NFL game in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Brock Osweiler is only getting the start for the Texans due to an injury to Tom Savage, the guy who took his job.
This game might end up being fun, but more likely we’ll see a mess.
Let the Brock Osweiler overreaction begin. He had a rough game Thursday night, and he’s rightfully taking some grief. He doesn’t look like a quarterback worth the big contract he signed.
I’ve never been a huge fan, so I’m still not impressed.
Still, the NFL is a weird league these days. Teams can look great and then lay an egg like the Texans did on Thursday. So you really have to give Osweiler time to see how he develops. To be a good NFL QB, you need to bounce back from games like this. Let’s see what Bill O’Brien can do about it.
