Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
1:00 pm ET
TV—FOX

Of any player that needed the bye week, you have to believe 40-year-old Brett Favre did the most. He might not say so, because in many ways, the man who had an incredible “comeback” season (4202 yards, 33 TDs, 7 picks) thinks he’s still 18. Dallas, meanwhile, has been on quite a roll ever since they upset the Saints in New Orleans in Week 15. They are playing lights out on both sides of the ball, and Tony Romo (whose boyhood hero growing up in Wisconsin was Favre) along with Jason Witten and Miles Austin are going to give the Vikings’ sixth ranked D all they can handle. On defense, the Cowboys rank ninth overall, and even though they are 20th against the pass, that’s skewed a bit because they terrorized Donovan McNabb for two weeks straight, and virtually shut down Drew Brees’ Saints for three quarters in that upset game. The Vikings will likely turn to all-world RB Adrian Peterson a bit more than usual, to try and soften Dallas’ front seven for Favre to take shots down the field with big receiver Sidney Rice and speedy rookie Percy Harvin. And pass rushing specialist Jared Allen will have fun chasing Romo all day. This one has all the makings of a classic, and it’s even more intriguing because these teams have not played each other since 2007. Upset? Don’t be surprised. THE PICK: COWBOYS 27, VIKINGS 20

New York Jets at San Diego Chargers
4:40 pm ET
TV—CBS

Imagine a tug of war where the other team lets go of the rope halfway through the contest. That’s basically what happened to the Jets when the Colts pulled their starters in Week 16, and a 15-10 Colts’ lead turned into a 29-15 Jets’ upset. Since then, the Jets routed the Bengals 37-0, when Cincinnati also basically rested their players most of the game. But rookie head coach Rex Ryan doesn’t think his team had any advantage or luck or whatever, and he proved it last week when his Jets went into Cincinnati and upset the Bengals at full strength, and on the road, 24-14. That #1 defense of the Jets is no mirage, so Philip Rivers and that fifth ranked passing offense will really have their hands full. They do have LaDainian Tomlinson, but based on the fact the Chargers are ranked 31st in rushing offense, either LT or his supporting cast is not the same. So the Jets will likely try to stop Rivers, along with big receivers Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates first, but they can’t make the mistake of paying no attention to Tomlinson or the speedy change-up back, Darren Sproles. The Jets will try and use their top ranked run game to speed up the game, and with the Chargers ranked 20th against the run, they just might be able to do that a bit. What’s likely here is that the team which makes the most mistakes will lose. And the Jets are due for one of those games. THE PICK: CHARGERS 23, JETS 13

When it comes to fumbles, nobody drops the ball more than quarterbacks, because they handle the ball more than anyone besides the center. Brett Favre has 157 of them, which leads active players (yes, we’re considering Favre active). But many times when a QB fumbles, he can pounce right back on the ball. Running backs are a different story. The ones who fumble a lot often wind up in their coach’s doghouse because most of the time it’s because of careless ball handling. As for fantasy football, you’ll want to be careful with these guys too because they take points off your scoreboard, both by negative points for fumbles, and for lost opportunities on offense. So here is the active Top 10 in fumbles by running backs…..

1. Edgerrin James (43)—James isn’t as bad as early in his career, like when he fumbled 8 times during his rookie year of 1999 with the Colts. But you tend to look the other way when the other numbers offset the fumbles—and James was an All Pro that year with 2139 yards from scrimmage and 17 total touchdowns.

2. Ricky Williams (41)—Ricky definitely comes down with fumble-it is pretty often, and that has to drive Bill Parcells crazy. I wonder if it would help if Ricky thought he was carrying a bag of..…oh forget it.

3. Jamal Lewis (39)—Lewis has improved drastically in this area, fumbling only twice last season. But he fumbled 8 times in back to back seasons in 2002 and 2003 while with Baltimore. Yikes.

4. Ahman Green (37)—He hasn’t fumbled since 2006, but that’s only because Green has carried the ball just 144 times since then.

5. Michael Pittman (31)—Pittman was one of like 15 running backs used by the Broncos last season.

6. Shaun Alexander (31)—For a few years there, Alexander was putting up such ridiculous numbers that Mike Holmgren was forced to accept some drops.

7. Warrick Dunn (26)—He’s never had more than 4 fumbles in a season, but he’s been playing for so long that he wound up on here. Dunn may be one of the most underrated RBs in the history of the NFL.

8. Fred Taylor (26)—Taylor has fumbled less in recent years, but he’s also carried the ball less. It should be interesting to see if his career is re-ignited in a Patriots’ uniform.

9. LaDainian Tomlinson (25)—He fumbled 8 times in his rookie year, and only 17 times since. With 2657 total carries, that’s not bad at all.

9 (tie). Clinton Portis (25)—Portis is a solid RB, but he does have two quirks—he’s injury prone and he drops the ball a few too many times.

Source: Pro Football Reference

So you still want to draft a running back with your number one pick after we crunched the numbers to find that quarterbacks have become equally or more valuable in fantasy football? Well, I can’t blame anyone that goes the traditional route here, especially with guys like Michael Turner and Adrian Peterson looking like legitimate #1 picks. Here are last season’s Top 10 running backs in fantasy points, keeping in mind that this is based on my league, and stats vary from league to league:

1. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers—I know some players take a few years to develop, but I live in Tennessee and saw Williams play on TV a lot when he was with Memphis. I drafted him in 2006 because I knew what not everyone knew—his upside was tremendous. Of course, he had 501 yards and a TD that year. But once DeShaun Foster was gone, Williams exploded, and last year racked up 1639 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns. Potential realized, and there’s more where that came from despite Jonathan Stewart sharing the load.

2. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons—Turner “The Burner” finally got out from under LT’s shadow in San Diego and showed with his new team that he can be a #1 RB—in a big, big way. In fact, Turner out-rushed LT by almost 600 yards. Take that, AJ Smith.

3. Thomas Jones, New York Jets—Jones had a big year, with 1519 total yards and 15 scores. But something tells me to expect a substantial drop-off this year. I mean, this is the same guy who scored 1 rushing TD in 2007.

4. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears—A rookie in 2008, Forte was a pleasant surprise and was basically the Bears’ entire offense. Now they have Jay Cutler at QB, which could mean just a bit less focus on the running game. Still, it’s the Bears, and plus Forte is just as valuable a receiver as he is a runner. Don’t expect a re-run of 2008 (1715 yards and 12 total touchdowns) but don’t expect a crappy season either.

5. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings—He may be frequently injured but AP is about as explosive as any player in the NFL. In fact, he may be what everyone expected Reggie Bush to be. Who? Yeah, I know. Anyway, Peterson had 1885 all-purpose yards but only 10 TDs. This season, I’m looking for 2400 yards from scrimmage and 15-20 scores. I can feel it.

6. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles—Off-season surgery is either going to hamper Westbrook or make him better. I’ll still take a Brian Westbrook at 70% than, say, a Willis McGahee at 100%. When Westbook is on the field (1338 total yards, 54 catches, 14 total TDs in ‘08), he’s fantasy money.

7. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants—Jacobs seemed to perform best when he shared carries with Derrick Ward, who is now in Tampa. Jacobs will still share carries, but with Ahmad Bradshaw. Jacobs had his second straight 1000-yard season (Ward also topped 1000 yards) with 15 touchdowns, and there is no reason to believe he’ll fall short of that in ’09. Well, unless the injury bug bites again.

8. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers—I’m still sick about drafting LT #1 last season in my league. I know that having the top pick doesn’t happen too often, and this guy just killed my season and probably everyone else’s that picked him first or second.
I mean, 1536 yards from scrimmage and 12 scores is not bad, but consider LT’s 2006 season—2323 overall yards and 31 TDs. Last year, LT was more like Thomas Jones in a good year.

9. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars—Streaky yes, but a solid player who can run and catch passes effectively. MJD had 824 rushing yards, and 62 receptions for 565 with 14 total touchdowns. With Fred Taylor in New England, expect those numbers to jump this season.

10. LenDale White, Tennessee Titans—This guy was the touchdown bogart for Chris Johnson, with only 773 yards but 15 scores. Should we expect an encore? It’s hard to say, but Jeff Fisher is definitely a creature of habit.

Remember when we were instructed to draft running backs with our first two, and in some cases, our first four, fantasy football picks? Yeah, that was so 1999. Heck, that was so 2004 or 2005 when LT and Shaun Alexander were dominating the gridiron. But a funny thing has happened. Running backs by committee are not only keeping legs fresh, they are wreaking havoc on fantasy rosters. Also, a recent trend toward pass-happy offenses is making quarterbacks and receivers more valuable. Last season, QBs were dominating — here is how the Top 10 QBs finished fantasy-wise in 2008 (your league may have scored differently than mine) and what you can expect from them in 2009:

1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—Brees fell 15 yards short of Dan Marino’s single season passing yards record, finishing with 5069 yards, along with 34 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. Is he going to match that? There’s no reason to believe he won’t.

2. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers—I had LT last year and one of the reasons his stats suffered was because this guy kept throwing the damn ball. Rivers threw for 4009 yards with 34 TDs and just 11 picks. This year, will they go back to more of a run-first offense? Probably not — not with LT a year older.

3. Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals—Ah, the Fountain of Youth is a beautiful thing. Warner drank from it often, and of course when you have guys named Boldin and Fitzgerald to throw to, it can make you look good and feel ten years younger. Still, who expected 4582 yards and 30 touchdowns with 14 picks and a trip to the Super Bowl? Not me. This year, Warner may not have Boldin, who just keeps whining about his contract, but don’t think the QB’s numbers will suffer all that much.

4. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers—Brett who? You certainly won’t hear anyone blaming the Packers’ 6-10 season on Rodgers. It was in fact their defense that failed them, because Rodgers passed for 4038 yards with 28 TDs and 13 interceptions. And just for kicks, Favre’s numbers with the Jets were 3472 yards, but 22 TDs and league leading 22 picks. Going into 2009, Rodgers’ stock has to be even higher.

5. Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos—On what planet does 4526 yards and 25 touchdown passes get you run out of town? In Denver, where new coach Josh McDaniel screwed up and tried to trade for Matt Cassel. Oops. Cutler is now in Chicago, so that means his fantasy stock automatically drops a few notches.

6. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—The Colts got off to a horrible start and in fact didn’t win the division for the first time in years. But Manning finished strong, with 4002 yards, 27 TDs and just 12 picks. Marvin Harrison is no longer catching his passes, but that doesn’t mean Manning doesn’t have weapons.

7. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles—It was a roller coaster season in 2008, but the Eagles came within about a quarter of reaching the Super Bowl. Somehow McNabb held it together (what, they have ties in the NFL?) and wound up having a great season, passing for 3916 yards with 23 TD passes and 11 picks. He only had 147 rushing yards and 2 rushing scores, but that’s what Philly has Brian Westbrook for. McNabb is getting long in the tooth, but he’s smarter and as accurate as ever.

8. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys—Okay, so there may be trouble in paradise and there is no T.O. anymore, but Romo is still a very good fantasy QB. His 3448 yards and 26 TDs were a bit off his 2007 pace (4211, 36 TDs), but part of that is because he missed a few games with a thumb injury.

9. Matt Cassel, New England Patriots—With zero pro experience and almost zero college experience, who would have thought Matt Cassel could come in for Tom Brady and have the season he did? Okay, so he is no Brady, but Brady is in a class of his own anyway. Cassel’s 3490 yards with 21 TD passes and just 10 interceptions were good enough to land him the starting job in Kansas City. How that will affect his fantasy stats remains to be seen, but don’t expect too much of a drop-off on an improved Chiefs’ team.

10. Chad Pennington, Miami Dolphins—You know Chad is still gloating after being pushed out of New York by Brett Favre, and then leading his Dolphins to the division title. Pennington is always risky as a fantasy QB because of injuries and inconsistency, but 3653 yards and 19 TDs is not shabby, nor was his microscopic total of 7 picks. If he stays healthy, Chad should have another good season.

The other name you’ll have to consider in 2009 is Brady. He missed the final 15 ¾ of the season after getting knocked out of the opener against Kansas City, but early reports are that Brady is looking and feeling great and will be at full strength in 2009. Randy Moss is salivating, and so will fantasy owners, though they will do so skeptically.

Are you ready for some football? I know I am and feel great just talking about it!

(Next week: Wide Receivers)

Last week, the San Diego Chargers ended the LaDainian Tomlinson controversy by signing him to a new restructured three-year deal…or did they postpone an inevitable confrontation with their marquee star until next year.

Under the new terms of his contract, LT will receive $6.75 million as his base salary for next season, with a large roster-bonus payment being owed in March of 2010. At that time, the Chargers will have to decide if they want to pay him for another year of service.

Team President Dean Spanos played a large role in completing this contract agreement, as he couldn’t bear to see LT playing in another uniform this upcoming season. GM AJ Smith advised management that the team needed immediate salary cap relief in order to sign several key players (QB Philip Rivers, TE Antonio Gates, CB Antonio Cromartie) to future contracts, and felt they should zero in on Tomlinson’s contract.

Smith hoped to use his abrasive managerial style to negotiate a restructured deal with Tomlinson. In a newspaper article (click here to read), he mocked LT’s wishes to remain in San Diego. Spanos had to step in and remove Smith from the negotiating team in order to complete this deal. Tomlinson publicly thanked him for his role in smoothing out their relationship during the process and also for their personal friendship.

Tomlinson turns 30 this summer and is eager to prove his explosive running style has not left him just yet. Defensive coordinators from opposing teams would agree, as they still respect LT’s running ability enough to employ an eight-man front on first and second down last season. This allowed Rivers to blossom into an upper-echelon passer, as he exploited single coverage for over 4000 yards and 34 touchdowns last season. And Rivers did this without a legit # 1 receiver on the roster.

The reports of LT’s demise are a bit premature, as he has only missed one regular season game in his career. Unfortunately, Tomlinson’s last two post-seasons have been cut short due to injuries. The uncertainty of his health raised the question if he would continue his career as a Charger. But the alternative is unthinkable for Charger fans…in their minds, he belongs in San Diego forever.