Tag: Michael Turner (Page 14 of 21)

Another reason to be down on Michael Turner this season…

I’ve already mentioned the “Curse of 370,” but Michael Turner is facing yet another challenge this season — a much tougher schedule.

Here’s a look at Turner’s performance last year against good, mediocre and bad rush defenses:

– In three games against top 10 rush defenses (Chicago, Philly and Minnesota), Turner averaged 20.3 carries for 60.7 yards and 0.3 TD, which translates to 8.1 fantasy points.

– In seven games against teams ranked #11-#20 in rush defense (New Orleans x 2, Carolina x 2, Tampa Bay x 2, and San Diego), Turner averaged 23.4 carries for 92.0 yards and 1.0 TD, which equals 15.2 fantasy points.

– In six games agains teams ranked #21 to #32 in rush defense (Denver, St. Louis, Detroit, Kansas City, Green Bay and Oakland), Turner averaged 25.2 carries for 145.5 yards and 1.5 TD, which is 23.5 fantasy points.

In short, Turner killed poor rush defenses, did pretty well against mediocre defenses and struggled against good ones. That makes sense, right?

Heading into the 2009 season, Turner’s schedule is shaping up to be tougher. He has six matchups with teams that finished in the top 10 last year, nine matchups with teams that finished #11-#20, and just one game against a team that finished #22-#32 (#22 Buffalo). On average, he’s going from a schedule that has an average rank of 19.3 against the rush to one that has an average rank of 13.6. Not good.

So assuming that Turner has the same averages against each of the three groups, and last year’s finish is a reasonable expectation for how these defenses will fair (a big assumption, I know), then Turner would project to 358 carries for 1338 yards and 13 TD. Those are still good numbers, but a far cry from the 1699 yards and 17 TD he posted last year.

Assuming he continues to be a non-factor in the Atlanta passing game (and with the addition of Tony Gonzalez, this is not a big assumption), and posts another six catches for 41 yards, then these rushing and receiving totals translate to 221 fantasy points (in a high performance PPR league). That would have made him RB15 last year.

I still like Turner — hell, I have him in a keeper league, so I’m rooting for the guy — but I just don’t think he’s first round material this season in PPR leagues.

Will the ‘Curse of 370’ slow Turner down?

Michael Turner carried the ball 376 times last season, which is a bad omen if you believe in the “Curse of 370.”

The stat was “discovered” by Football Outsiders founder Aaron Schatz in 2004.

The “370 Curse” has reared its head in the Falcons locker room before.

Running backs who rush for more than 370 carries in a season will either have a significant decline or get hurt the following season. Only one running back, Eric Dickerson, has been able to beat the curse.

After Jamal Anderson powered the Falcons to the Super Bowl with 410 carries in 1998, he suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in 1999 and was never the same.

Gerald Riggs ran for 1,719 yards on 397 carries in 1985. He followed up that season with 1,327 yards on 343 carries but although he played five more seasons, he never eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark again.

Some of the latest players to succumb the curse include Seattle’s Shaun Alexander, Kansas City’s Larry Johnson, Tennessee’s Eddie George and Miami’s Ricky Williams.

For their part, the Falcons don’t believe Turner was overused, and when they need to run the ball, they’re going to call Turner’s number.

I like Turner this year, but I don’t think he’s going to rack up 370+ carries again this season. Assuming he doesn’t get injured, I expect him to carry the ball 320-350 times. He’s not a big part of the Falcons’ passing game, so that hurts his fantasy stock in PPR leagues.

It’s going to be interesting to see if Turner can avoid the “curse” this season.

The top five best, worst and most improved offensive lines in the NFL

There’s a secret that most good fantasy football owners don’t want you to know: Knowing how good (or how bad) an offensive line is could be the difference between you making the playoffs in your league, and winning the whole damn thing.

The bottom line is that the offensive line is the key to whether or not an offense is going to be successful in any given season. They’re the reason why guys like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brews are able to rack up terrific passing yards year in and year out, and why Brandon Jacobs, Michael Turner and Adrian Peterson continue to be solid fantasy backs. So knowing which O-lines are quality and which act like revolving doors to their team’s backfield will give you an edge on draft day.

Below is a ranking of the top five best lines, the top five most improved lines and the top five worst lines in the NFL heading into the ’09 season. Use these rankings as a tool to help you make better decisions on draft day and to also aid you when you’re stuck between a couple of players in later rounds.

Granted, we’re not advocating bumping certain players to the top of your pre-draft rankings just based on these rankings. The Lions offensive line is the worst in football, but if Kevin Smith is there for the taking in the 5th round, by all means jump on him. This article is purely meant to be a helpful aid; obviously you still have to use solid judgment on draft day.

Continue reading »

2009 fantasy football is coming soon—a look back at 2008 RBs

So you still want to draft a running back with your number one pick after we crunched the numbers to find that quarterbacks have become equally or more valuable in fantasy football? Well, I can’t blame anyone that goes the traditional route here, especially with guys like Michael Turner and Adrian Peterson looking like legitimate #1 picks. Here are last season’s Top 10 running backs in fantasy points, keeping in mind that this is based on my league, and stats vary from league to league:

1. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers—I know some players take a few years to develop, but I live in Tennessee and saw Williams play on TV a lot when he was with Memphis. I drafted him in 2006 because I knew what not everyone knew—his upside was tremendous. Of course, he had 501 yards and a TD that year. But once DeShaun Foster was gone, Williams exploded, and last year racked up 1639 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns. Potential realized, and there’s more where that came from despite Jonathan Stewart sharing the load.

2. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons—Turner “The Burner” finally got out from under LT’s shadow in San Diego and showed with his new team that he can be a #1 RB—in a big, big way. In fact, Turner out-rushed LT by almost 600 yards. Take that, AJ Smith.

3. Thomas Jones, New York Jets—Jones had a big year, with 1519 total yards and 15 scores. But something tells me to expect a substantial drop-off this year. I mean, this is the same guy who scored 1 rushing TD in 2007.

4. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears—A rookie in 2008, Forte was a pleasant surprise and was basically the Bears’ entire offense. Now they have Jay Cutler at QB, which could mean just a bit less focus on the running game. Still, it’s the Bears, and plus Forte is just as valuable a receiver as he is a runner. Don’t expect a re-run of 2008 (1715 yards and 12 total touchdowns) but don’t expect a crappy season either.

5. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings—He may be frequently injured but AP is about as explosive as any player in the NFL. In fact, he may be what everyone expected Reggie Bush to be. Who? Yeah, I know. Anyway, Peterson had 1885 all-purpose yards but only 10 TDs. This season, I’m looking for 2400 yards from scrimmage and 15-20 scores. I can feel it.

6. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles—Off-season surgery is either going to hamper Westbrook or make him better. I’ll still take a Brian Westbrook at 70% than, say, a Willis McGahee at 100%. When Westbook is on the field (1338 total yards, 54 catches, 14 total TDs in ‘08), he’s fantasy money.

7. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants—Jacobs seemed to perform best when he shared carries with Derrick Ward, who is now in Tampa. Jacobs will still share carries, but with Ahmad Bradshaw. Jacobs had his second straight 1000-yard season (Ward also topped 1000 yards) with 15 touchdowns, and there is no reason to believe he’ll fall short of that in ’09. Well, unless the injury bug bites again.

8. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers—I’m still sick about drafting LT #1 last season in my league. I know that having the top pick doesn’t happen too often, and this guy just killed my season and probably everyone else’s that picked him first or second.
I mean, 1536 yards from scrimmage and 12 scores is not bad, but consider LT’s 2006 season—2323 overall yards and 31 TDs. Last year, LT was more like Thomas Jones in a good year.

9. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars—Streaky yes, but a solid player who can run and catch passes effectively. MJD had 824 rushing yards, and 62 receptions for 565 with 14 total touchdowns. With Fred Taylor in New England, expect those numbers to jump this season.

10. LenDale White, Tennessee Titans—This guy was the touchdown bogart for Chris Johnson, with only 773 yards but 15 scores. Should we expect an encore? It’s hard to say, but Jeff Fisher is definitely a creature of habit.

Ten things to look forward to now that the Super Bowl is over

Click here for six observations on Super Bowl XLIII.

Lucifer himself might as well have created the Monday after Super Bowl Sunday.

Is that extreme? No.

The Monday after the Super Bowl signals the end of another NFL season and that means there is no football on the horizon unless you’re one of the 10 people that watches the Pro Bowl. There are seven months between now and the start of preseason games, which makes me sick to think about. If I could freeze myself for the next seven months and thaw just in time for the 2009 season, I would.

Is that extreme? No.

But fear not my football friends because even though there isn’t any football this Sunday, it doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty to get excited about while looking ahead. Below are 10 things to look forward to now that the Super Bowl is over.

Before you read on, realize that I’m not going to cop out and write about how free agency and the draft are things to look forward to. Of course they are, but let’s get more specific here, people.

Tom Brady1. The Patriots’ decision regarding Tom Brady and Matt Cassel.
The Patriots are faced with arguably the biggest decision of any team this offseason. Brady has won multiple Super Bowls for the organization, has been the face of the franchise for almost a decade and he’s one of the Pats’ most outspoken leaders. But he’s also coming off major knee surgery, is 32 years old and his backup (Cassel) is younger and had a productive season as a fill-in. Cassel is also an unrestricted free agent, which makes this situation even more intriguing. Rumor has it that the Pats will franchise Cassel, but that’s a risky move because they would have to pay him $14.65 million for one year. If New England went that route, they would have nearly $30 million tied up in the quarterback position next year and Cassel might not even take a snap if Brady recovers in time for the start of the season. Another option would be to re-sign Cassel to a long-term contract and then trade Brady, but that’s easier said than done. Even though Brady’s a multiple Super Bowl winner, the Pats would still have to find a suitor willing to take on his injury concerns and contract. Of course, New England could keep Brady and allow Cassel to walk, but then they would have to hope golden boy Tom is healthy, and have a backup option in place in case he does get hurt again. Either way, the Pats have one hell of a decision to make soon.

2. Will the Cardinals trade Anquan Boldin?
On the surface, this situation isn’t too complicated. Boldin wants to be paid like a No. 1 receiver, but the Cardinals want him to honor the contact extension he signed in 2005, which won’t make him a free agent until 2011. If Boldin doesn’t get paid, he wants Arizona to trade him, but the Cardinals just got done playing in the Super Bowl and would love to keep their dynamic passing game intact for next season. Will the Cardinals pony up? They might not have to. Larry Fitzgerald once again proved this season that he is the team’s No. 1 and while Boldin remains highly underrated, Steve Breaston is more than capable of being the Cards’ No. 2. The team could find another wideout to play the slot either via the draft or free agency. Plus if they trade Boldin, they could acquire multiple draft picks to use to strengthen other areas on the team, including offensive line and defense. But if Fitz is willing to rework his contract in order to help keep Boldin, then obviously Arizona is a much better team with him than without him.

3. Will the Lions draft a quarterback with the first overall pick?
The Lions have a new general manager in Martin Mayhew and it’s unclear at this point what they’ll do with the first pick in the draft. Some mock drafts have Detroit selecting Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford first overall, while others suggest Alabama offensive tackle Andre Smith should be the team’s first pick. With the success that rookie signal callers Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco had last year, many draft pundits will probably urge the Lions to take a franchise quarterback. But taking a quarterback in the first round (especially in the top 10) has proved to be a fatal move for teams in the past and the Lions’ offensive line is one of the worst in the league. Perhaps Mayhew’s plan for free agency will be a telltale sign of what the Lions do come draft day. If the GM decides to rebuild the offensive line, Stafford might be the pick. But considering new head coach Jim Schwartz’s background is in defense, Mayhew might spend the entire offseason rebuilding on that side of the ball and then target quarterbacks Sam Bradford or Colt McCoy next year.

4. Donovan McNabb’s situation in Philadelphia.
McNabb is under contract with the Eagles until 2013, but according to several sources, he’s only signed through 2010, which is why he and the team are talking about a possible contract extension. Let the rumor mill start. Some media outlets claim that McNabb wants out of Philly, while others suggest that he wants to retire an Eagle. The fact that Andy Reid benched McNabb for former second-round pick Kevin Kolb in a game against the Ravens earlier this season adds intrigue. But I guess before anyone gets too wrapped up in the McNabb-Eagles offseason story, more information has to be released about his contract. If he’s under contract through 2012, there’s no sense in buying the rumors that he won’t be an Eagle next year. But if his contract is up, there are seemingly endless possibilities in this situation.

5. Brett Favre…the saga continues.
If this were a list of “top 10 things not to look forward to now that the Super Bowl is over”, this same exact topic would be listed. Favre’s retirement dance is brutal, but it makes for good drama. Jets’ owner Woody Johnson recently said that if Favre isn’t in OTA’s this spring, he wouldn’t be with the team next year. Peter King thinks that Favre will retire. Methinks that unless Favre isn’t in uniform next year, then he won’t retire. He’ll never retire…ever.

Ray Lewis6. What will the Ravens do about their linebacker corps?
Ray Lewis, Bart Scott and Terrell Suggs are all set to become free agents this offseason. The Cowboys are reportedly willing to spend upwards of $30 million to acquire Lewis, but that’s just a rumor at this point. If you’re Baltimore and another team wants to spend that kind of money on an aging linebacker, you might have to let him walk. Scott is highly underrated and Suggs is one of the premier pass-rushers in the league. Both players are also younger (Scott is 28, Suggs is 26) than Lewis and the Ravens can’t afford to lose all three players, especially considering their defensive coordinator (Rex Ryan) just became the new head coach of the Jets. Baltimore finally found a franchise quarterback in Joe Flacco and an offense that can score points and now their defense could be falling apart.

7. Will Kurt Warner stick around?
Warner proved that he has plenty left in the tank after leading the Cardinals to the Super Bowl, but he’s no spring chicken at 37 years old and he’s set to become one of the more sought after free agent quarterbacks on the market. While Arizona might be the best fit for him, this will likely be his last opportunity to get a decent-sized contract and while the Cardinals would love to have him back, Matt Leinart is still waiting in the wings to take over the reins again (again). Warner’s agent recently said he’d test the market, but it’ll be interesting to see how many teams will pursue him given his age and decreasing arm strength.

8. Scott Pioli’s first offseason in Kansas City.
It’s time to see what the mastermind behind the Patriots’ drafts this past decade can do outside of New England. The situation in Kansas City is a mess and it’ll be interesting to see whom Pioli hires to replace Herman Edwards at head coach. He has a plethora of candidates, but will he hire a veteran like Jon Gruden or go with an unknown? It’ll also be interesting to see what he does in his first draft, with the Chiefs in need at all positions. KC needs to rebuild the offensive line, has tons of holes on defense and unless Pioli thinks Tyler Thigpen is the answer, he’ll probably look at quarterback this offseason, too. Chiefs fans have one hell of a busy offseason to look forward to.

9. Is LaDainian Tomlinson done in San Diego?
By now, most people understand the situation in San Diego. Tomlinson is coming off his worst season as a pro, isn’t getting any younger and his backup is a free agent. All of this has spurned the idea that GM A.J. Smith will trade or release LT this offseason, re-sign Darren Sproles and then concentrate on landing another back either in free agency or the draft. But when you stop and think about it, the Chargers obviously didn’t think LT was on his last legs last offseason when they didn’t try and persuade Michael Turner to stick around. Had they known Tomlinson was done, they would have taken preemptive measures in trying to keep Turner and pair him with Sproles. Tomlinson is still under contract and Sproles is likely to test the free agent market. So maybe Smith’s decision isn’t as tough as everyone thinks and LT will remain a Charger for at least the 2009 season. Or Smith could part ways with the most productive back in team history and then the fun really begins.

10. Mock Drafts – in all of their glory.
All right, I had to do one less specified thing to look forward to this offseason. Mock drafts – are they pointless? Yeah. But you know damn well that you’ve already Googled over hundreds of them. Don’t lie.

« Older posts Newer posts »