Projected carries in KC, Houston, Indy, Buffalo and Oakland

DENVER - JANUARY 03: Jamaal Charles #25 of the Kansas City Chiefs rushes against the Denver Broncos at Invesco Field at Mile High on January 3, 2010 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)

Chris Wesseling of Rotoworld has released updated carry projections for the entire AFC, but let’s focus on five teams: the Chiefs, Texans, Colts, Bills and Raiders.

We’ll go one by one:

Jamaal Charles: 220
Thomas Jones: 140
Kestahn Moore: 30

Charles emerged as the Chiefs’ MVP last year, averaging 20 carries and 121 rushing yards once hit he the starting lineup at mid-season. The projection above accounts for Jones in slightly more than a Willis McGahee-type short-yardage/inside role, giving Charles just under 14 carries per contest. Throw in three receptions per week and it’s enough to leave Charles as a borderline RB1.

Obviously, these numbers disregard the fact that TJ is still atop the depth chart and the head coach is telling the press that Charles’s role is ‘undefined.’ While it would seem incomprehensible to fantasy owners that Haley would limit Charles’s touches given how well he played last season, the news out of KC should not be ignored. TJ has been overlooked everywhere he’s went and while I’m hoping for a 60/40 split like we see here, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s more 50/50.

Arian Foster: 215
Steve Slaton: 125
Jeremiah Johnson: 20
Chris Henry: 10

The line for now trendy Foster love starts behind Rotoworld. We were hyping the former Tennessee star as a Dynasty deep sleeper once the Texans snatched him up after last year’s draft while promoting him as the potential answer in Houston by mid-November. Although Ben Tate’s season-ending broken fibula has killed Foster’s sleeper potential for this year, it certainly offers more clarity in this backfield: Foster is Batman; Slaton is Robin. Draft accordingly.

I didn’t jump on the Foster bandwagon until earlier this summer, but with Tate’s injury, he looks like he should vastly outplay his current draft position (9.02 over the last week). Look for his ADP to continue to rise. I’d start thinking about picking him in the 7th or the 8th. He played very well at the end of last season, has drawn rave reviews from the coaching staff this summer, and it’s clear that the team doesn’t view Slaton as a feature back any longer.

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Breaking down the 2009 NFL Offensive Rookie Year candidates

Around this time last year, I compiled a top 10 list of Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates and ranked Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan No. 1. He went on to throw for 3,440 yards, 16 touchdowns and led Atlanta to a remarkable playoff appearance, all while making me look like some kind of OROY-predicting genius.

Of course, I also listed Titans running back Chris Johnson at No. 7 behind less-productive names like Darren McFadden (No. 4), Kevin Smith (No. 5) and Rashard Mendenhall (No. 6), hence making me look like some kind of OROY-predicting moron.

To see my top 10 ranking from last year, click here. And for my top 10 ranking of the offensive rookie of the year candidates for this season, see below.

1. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos
While the knee injury he suffered in Denver’s preseason opener is a concern, Moreno is expected to be ready for Week 1 and will be given every opportunity to shine in ’09. Granted, he’s stuck in a crowded backfield and could be eased into the season after hurting his knee, but he has the potential to be an every-down back at some point this year. He was the most complete back in April’s draft, has outstanding vision and should get plenty of opportunities to make plays in Josh McDaniels’ shotgun-heavy offense. He’ll also benefit from running behind the Broncos’ stellar O-line. Expecting him to put up rushing numbers similar to those of Chris Johnson (1,228 rushing yards) last year might be a little ambitious. But if Moreno stays healthy, a 400-plus yard receiving season in McDaniels’ system is certainly doable.

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An early look at the running back class for the ’09 NFL Draft

LeSean “Shady” McCoy has decided to forego his final two years of eligibility at the University of Pittsburgh and enter April’s NFL draft.

So how does McCoy stack up against the likes of Knowshon Moreno (Georgia), Chris “Beanie” Wells (Ohio State), Donald Brown (Connecticut), P.J. Hill (Wisconsin) and Shonn Greene (Iowa)? Let’s take a look.

Even though he had a major setback earlier in the year when he injured his foot/toe in the Buckeyes’ first game of season, Beanie Wells has all of the intangibles NFL teams look for in a back. He’s big (6’1” 237 pounds), fast (he should run in the 4.5-range for the forty at the combine) and might even grade out better than Darren McFadden, who was selected No. 4 overall a year ago. He has had some durability issues, but after watching him over the course of the second half of the season, it didn’t look like he was suffering any lingering effects from the injury. Ohio State head coach Jim Tressel believes that Beanie is a top-5 pick and when you look at the entire package, it’s hard to disagree.

Knowshon Moreno will probably go somewhere in the first round, but it’s hard to speculate at this point whether or not he’ll go in the top 15 or fall in the 20-25 range. He doesn’t have a ton of experience (he only played two seasons at UGA), but that also means he has fresh legs and he was incredible the two years he played at Georgia. He is being compared to Thomas Jones and Cadillac Williams in that he’s a grinder who doesn’t necessarily have great top-end speed, but makes up for it with outstanding instincts and vision. If he falls past the top 15 picks, he’s going to be a steal for whichever team grabs him.

At 5’11, 210 pounds, Shady McCoy isn’t the biggest back in the draft, but his change-of-direction skills are unrivaled. After what the Texans’ Steve Slaton (a similar back with great speed) was able to accomplish in his rookie season, as well as the growing popularity of the “Wildcat” formation in the NFL, a lot of teams are going to value McCoy’s versatility and athleticism. His ability to make people miss will certainly separate him come draft time and he should run a forty in the 4.4-range at the combine.

Shonn Greene is perhaps the most intriguing back in this draft because his stock couldn’t be higher after rushing for 1,850 yards and 20 touchdowns for the streaking Hawkeyes. He also won the Doak Walker Award, which is given to the nation’s top running back and given his powerful running style, he might be a sleeper pick in the top three rounds. He’s overshadowed by Wells, Moreno and McCoy, but his skill set is outstanding.

Donald Brown rushed for 2,083 yards at Connecticut this season and will likely draw comparisons to Kevin Smith of the Lions come April. Like Smith, Brown racked up a ton of yardage at the collegiate level, but doesn’t have elite speed or athleticism. Instead he excels because of his vision and creativity and unlike Smith (who played at Central Florida), Brown faced some decent defenses in the Big East so the “weak competition” knock shouldn’t be applied come draft day.

P.J. Hill will be a late round pick given his durability issues at Wisconsin and the fact that he’s not much of a pass-catcher. He’s a bowling ball of a runner, but won’t draw much consideration in the top three rounds.

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