2011 Week 9 NFL Primer

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger tries to get off his pass as he gets hit by Baltimore Ravens cornerback Lardarius Webb and safety Haruki Nakamura in the fourth quarter of their NFL football game in Baltimore, Maryland September 11, 2011. REUTERS/Joe Giza (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

Giants @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET
There are a couple of really good matchups on this week’s schedule, including Ravens-Steelers, Bucs-Saitns and Packers-Chargers. But none of them compare to this one when you think about the intrigue surrounding this game. Not only were the Giants the ones to ruin the Patriots’ perfect season back in 2007, but New England is also coming off a loss and Bill Belichick never loses when coming off a loss. But for whatever reason, New York has had New England’s number over the years. Could you imagine how burned Belichick would be if the Giants were the ones to end his non-consecutive losing streak? Game…of…the…week.

Ravens @ Steelers, 8:20PM ET
It doesn’t get much better than this, especially when you considering how hot the Steelers are and how badly the Ravens beat Pittsburgh in Baltimore in Week 1. The Steelers are coming off an emotional win against the Patriots but Pittsburgh and Baltimore always get up for each other so don’t expect Mike Tomlin’s squad to suffer a letdown. But can Ben Roethlisberger bounce back from his rough Week 1 performance in order to create even more of a divide between these two teams in the AFC North? After brutal matchup after brutal matchup for the Sunday Night Football gang, finally NBC gets a good game.

Bears @ Eagles, 8:30PM ET, Monday
Are the Eagles back? That’s the question on everyone’s mind. They might be but don’t forget Michael Vick has never beaten the Bears, which includes losing 31-26 in Chicago last season. For whatever reason, Vick has never been able to get the best of Brian Urlacher and with the Bears having two weeks to prepare for this game, it’ll be interesting to see how Philly plays following its 34-7 dismantling of Dallas last Sunday.

Bucs @ Saints, 1:00PM ET
I wouldn’t want to be Raheem Morris’ Bucs this weekend. Not only are the Saints steamed that they lost to Tampa three weeks ago but they’re also coming off an embarrassing loss to the previously winless Rams last Sunday. No wonder oddsmakers set the spread at New Orleans –9 despite the fact that this is a divisional game and should be close. If the Bucs can drum up some pressure on Drew Brees using their front four and force turnovers, Tampa could hand New Orleans its second straight loss. But I wouldn’t count on the Bucs pulling off the upset. The Saints have been a different team at home this year. A 62-7-type of team.

Packers @ Chargers, 4:15PM ET
We’re about to see what Norv Turner’s squad is made of. They had a win in the bag on Monday night before Philip Rivers fumbled it away and now the undefeated defending Super Bowl champions come in this Sunday. San Diego’s pass rush has been very good this season but its secondary has been picked apart at times. If the Chargers can get after Aaron Rodgers then there’s no reason to think that San Diego can’t pull off the upset – especially at home. But on the other side of the ball, if the Chargers can’t get their running game going then Rodgers may eventually start to pick apart the Bolts’ secondary. This is an extremely interesting matchup.

Jets @ Bills, 1:00PM ET
What a great matchup this will be between one of the best passing attacks in the league and one of the best pass defenses. Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills’ offense have moved the ball through the air at will but the Jets don’t wilt in coverage. That said, Rex Ryan better get more consistency out of his pass rush or else the Bills could walk away with yet another divisional win. The Jets can’t afford another divisional loss on their record.

Falcons @ Colts, 1:00PM ET
The Falcons have a great opportunity to right the ship after a slow start. If they beat the Colts on Sunday, they’d be 5-3 heading into their big showdown with the Saints next week. But beware the trap. The Saints overlooked the Rams last Sunday and we all saw what happened. Because of the conservative ways of Mike Smith and OC Mike Mularkey, the Falcons have tendency to leave opponents in games. If they allow the Colts to stick around at home, there’s no reason Indy can’t pull off the upset. Atlanta better use New Orleans’ loss to St. Louis last Sunday as a warning of what could happen if it doesn’t come to play this weekend.

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Sunday Evening Quick-Hitters: Reactions from Week 8 in the NFL

Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

St. Louis Rams Steven Jackson looks downfield after making a reception in the second quarter against the Carolina Panthers at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis on October 31, 2010. St. Louis won the game 20-10. UPI/Bill Greenblatt

– “If only the Rams could now somehow beat the Saints on Sunday, this would be the greatest sports weekend EVER,” uttered the random St. Louis fan on Friday night after the Cardinals defeated the Rangers in Game 7 of the World Series. How do the previously winless Rams defeat a team in the Saints that just racked up 62 points on the Colts? Well, that’s pretty easy. When you can’t stop Steven Jackson even though you know he’s going to get the ball every down, you lose two turnovers over on your side of the field, and you don’t protect your quarterback, you’re going to lose to most opponents regardless of whether or not they have any wins. The Rams won this game because of Jackson and their defense, which sacked Drew Brees six times and returned one of his passes for a game-clinching touchdown in the fourth quarter. Chris Long absolutely abused Charles Brown, who should have been given more help because he clearly needed it. The Rams clearly haven’t checked out and they’ll continue to fight every Sunday. That was apparent for anyone who saw Jackson flip out on his offensive line late in the second half following yet another false start penalty. What a sweet first win this was for a city that is on cloud nine right now.

– It’s not really shocking that the 2-6 Panthers lost another game. But considering whom they were playing and given that they were 3.5-point home favorites, it was a little surprising to see Carolina go down in flames to Minnesota on Sunday. Christian Ponder’s 102.7 passer rating and 8.4 yards per attempt were both season-highs for the Vikings, who apparently just should have started the kid from Week 1 and bypassed acquiring Donovan McNabb altogether. Ponder threw for 236 yards and a touchdown on 18-of-28 passing while earning his first career win thanks in large part to Olindo Mare’s inability to hit a 31-yard chip shot. The miss, which came with under a minute left to play, cost the Panthers an opportunity to force overtime. Good thing Carolina GM Marty Hurney spent so much money on Mare this offseason. Dude was totally worth it.

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Great partnerships between head coaches and quarterbacks

The quarterback has always been the most important position in pro football, even in the days when the running game was dominant. Many fans don’t realize that quarterbacks called all the plays as late as the 1970s and into the early 1980s. So even if offenses weren’t quite as complex back then and great teams had excellent running games, having a field general like Bob Griese, Terry Bradshaw or Roger Staubach was critical. As the NFL evolved into a more pass-happy league, an evolution that has accelerated in the last ten years with rules protecting the quarterbacks and defenseless receivers, the importance of the quarterback has only been magnified.

This reality makes the relationship between the head coach and the quarterback the most important in pro football. Look at the great teams over the years, and you see great partnerships between coach and quarterback leading to success on the field. It’s interesting to take a look back and see how these relationships took shape and see how they varied based on the situations and the personalities involved. Here are several interesting examples:

1-Bill Belichick and Tom Brady

Bill Belichick was known as a defensive genius when he took over the New England Patriots, but he was also known as a rigid coach who had a complete lack of imagination on offense as a result of his years as head coach of the Cleveland Browns. Belichick wanted the quarterback to be just another position on the field as he didn’t seem to acknowledge the leadership qualities of the position. Tom Brady was a sixth round pick sitting on the bench behind Drew Bledsoe.

When Bledsoe got hurt, Belichick turned to Brady and immediately saw Brady’s talent, decision-making and leadership ability. When Bledsoe came back, Belichick decided to stay with Brady, which at the time was a controversial decision. They made it to the Super Bowl, and by then Belichick has so much confidence in Brady that he made the aggressive decision to drive down the field with little time left in the fourth quarter in a tie game against the Rams. John Madden famously said on television that the Patriots should have just run out the clock and took their chances in overtime. Instead, Brady drove the Pats down to the game-winning field goal.

Two more Super Bowls and one undefeated regular season later, this partnership between Belichick and Brady is one of the most successful in NFL history. Belichick and his offensive coaches let Brady achieve his full potential by becoming just as imaginative on offense as Belichick had been his whole career on defense. From year to year the Patriots would beat you in many different ways, and then they grabbed Randy Moss they were almost unbeatable.

2-Mike Shanahan and John Elway

John Elway is one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. Yet despite his heroics with “The Drive” and countless other games that he won on sheer athletic ability, Elway had never managed to win a Super Bowl. He never had a real running game, and the Denver defenses were routinely embarrassed in Super Bowls. Then Mike Shanahan arrived. Shanahan is a stubborn system guy, and since the John Elway days he’s not had nearly as much success with his arrogant attitude. But Shanahan’s system was exactly what Elway needed. Elway bought into the changes which placed more emphasis on a running game and a disciplined approach to the passing game, and the result was two Super Bowl titles.

3-Bill Walsh and Joe Montana

Bill Walsh was a system guy. He was an offensive genius who dominated the NFL with his West Coast offense, and he happened to find the perfect quarterback for his system in third-round draft pick Joe Montana. Montana was very accurate and incredibly smart, and he played the quarterback position flawlessly in this system. Of course the 49ers were loaded with talent on offense, but the natural relationship between Walsh and Montana set a standard that would be copied over and over again in the NFL. Look at Aaron Rodgers today, and you see flashes on what Walsh and Montana created thirty years ago. Rodgers and Mike McCarthy have forged a great relationship following the Brett Favre drama in Green Bay.

Of course there are exceptions that help prove the rule. Chuck Noll and Terry Bradshaw never got along, but they managed to ride one of the best defenses in history plus a great running game to four Super Bowls, and Bradshaw thrived under pressure despite his frosty relationship with Noll. Bill Parcells was notorious for riding Phil Simms, and they had great success as well.

But there’s no doubt that the relationship between the head coach and the quarterback is usually a critical component to sustained success in the NFL. It will be interesting to see how young quarterbacks like Sam Bradford and Matthew Stafford grow with their head coaches.

Fade Material: NFL Week 5 Predictions

New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning calls a play at the line of scrimmage against the St. Louis Rams during the first quarter of their NFL football game in East Rutherford, New Jersey, September 19, 2011. REUTERS/Mike Segar (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

Oh, how I crashed and burned in glorious fashion last Sunday.

I picked the Cowboys, who coughed up a 27-3 lead to the Lions.

I had the Bears, who were covering with just over a minute to play before they allowed Cam “Backdoor Cover” Newton to waltz right down the field and score a meaningless touchdown on a fourth-and-goal with just seconds remaining.

I had the Cardinals, who were beating the Giants with five minutes remaining in the game before losing and finally, I had the Broncos, who were promptly hammered by the Packers in Green Bay.

For those scoring at home, that was an 0-4 Sunday, which runs my season record to 5-11 on the year. If you’re not cashing these puppies in, then I highly recommend you start doing so. The pickings don’t get any better than this…

Eagles @ Bills, 1:00PM ET
The Eagles’ offensive line, secondary, and run defense have struggled mightily over the last three weeks and yet Michael Vick and Co. still find themselves as 3-point road favorites in Buffalo. What a slap in the face to a good Bills team, which got a lesson in humility last Sunday in Cincinnati. Buffalo is a better team right now than Philadelphia, plain and simple. So I’ll gladly take the points with the home dog.
THE PICK: BILLS +3

Seahawks @ Giants, 1:00PM ET
I’m going to eat a lot of chalk today but I don’t really mind. The Seahawks may have played well in the second half last week against the Falcons, but Atlanta inexplicably went to a shell defense in the third quarter and completely took its foot off the gas offensively. That allowed Tarvaris Jackson and the Seahawks to get back into a game they should have been blown out in. I thought Eli Manning and the Giants would suffer a letdown last Sunday in Arizona and for three and a half quarters, it looked like they would. But his New York team is playing with a ton of confidence right now and I like the G-Men to roll against a Seattle squad that is brutal on the road.
THE PICK: GIANTS –9.5.

Jets @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET
I’m highly aware that the Jets went into Foxboro during the playoffs last season and beat the Patriots in impressive fashion. But Mark Sanchez and the Jets also have mystical powers that apparently only work in the postseason. During the regular season, Sanchez is liable to throw for 76 yards and two interceptions in any given game. New York can’t run the ball and has major issues on offense. If the Patriots get up big, don’t expect Bill Belichick to let up after his team was embarrassed in Buffalo after squandering a 21-0 first half lead. I think this game will be more like the 45-3 thrashing the Pats served the Jets in the regular season last year than the New England’s home playoff loss a few months later.
THE PICK: PATRIOTS –7.5.

Packers @ Falcons, 8:20PM ET
This the second big mismatch on the Week 5 schedule behind Jets-Patriots. Forget the fact that the Packers went into Atlanta last year and drubbed the Falcons 48-21 in the playoffs. Green Bay is simply leaps and bounds better than Atlanta at this point in the 2011 season. The Falcons have major issues along the offensive line and Aaron Rodgers will feast on the likes of Dunta Robinson in the passing game. I think it was a bad omen that the Falcons blew a 27-7 lead last week in Seattle. They may have won the game but the coaching staff gets too predictable and too conservative once this team builds a lead. Fortunately for Mike Smith and Co, the Falcons probably won’t have too many leads come Sunday night.
THE PICK: PACKERS –5.5

Last Week: 0-4
Season: 5-11

Check out Bullz-Eye.com for a list of Sunday’s NFL Odds.

Sixteen Questions for 16 NFL Playoff Contenders

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning watches his team play the San Diego Chargers from the sidelines during the fourth quarter of their NFL game in Indianapolis November 28, 2010. REUTERS/Brent Smith (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

After tonight there are no more predictions, no more projections and no more speculation. After tonight, the NFL season will have begun and it’s time to put the pre–season prognosticating to rest and let teams settle things on the field.

But for one last time before the games start counting for real, let’s examine what could potentially trip up contenders in both conferences. Below are 16 postseason contenders for the 2011 NFL season, along with 16 questions that revolve around concerns that that team has heading into the new year.

Patriots: What about the last line of defense?
The Patriots did a fantastic job this offseason addressing their need for more pass-rushers. But Bill Belichick may have created another weakness by leaving himself awfully thin at safety with the release of veterans Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders. Granted, Meriweather was less than impressive a year ago and Sanders has been injury prone throughout the years. For Meriweather, he often took bad angles to the ball last season and was caught out of position numerous times throughout the year. But in releasing both he and Sanders, Belichick is putting a lot of faith in Patrick Chung and 2010 rookie free agent Sergio Brown to man both safety positions. If Chung and Brown stay healthy and hold their own, then Belichick will once again look like a genius in his personnel decisions. If they falter, it doesn’t appear as though Belichick has left himself with a plan B.

Jets: Can Sanchez step up in the regular season?
If Mark Sanchez played as well in the regular season as he has in the postseason then maybe the Jets wouldn’t have to win playoff games on the road every year. Sanchez did take a step forward in his development last year but his consistency week-to-week remains an issue. This is a Jets team that could contend for a Super Bowl berth but not if Sanchez doesn’t continue to raise the level of his play. The goal for Rex Ryan and his team shouldn’t be the Super Bowl: it should be supplanting the Patriots in the AFC East first. Then they can set their sights a little higher.

Colts: How long will Peyton be out?
There’s no bigger question that needs to be answered for the Colts. With Manning they’ll once again be favored to win the AFC South. Without him they’ll probably sink to the bottom of the division. Kerry Collins may be able to keep this team afloat for a game or two, but without Manning the Colts will inevitably fall over a 16-game season. Hopefully for Indy’s sake Manning will return in a few weeks and more importantly, he’ll be close to 100-percent healthy. But there are reports that he’ll be out “a while” and if so, the next team on this list will have its shot to win the AFC South crown.

Texans: Is the defense really fixed?
Regular readers know that I fully believe this is the Texans’ year. I love the hiring of Wade Phillips, who has a long history of turning teams around in his first year as either head coach or defensive coordinator. This team also went a long way in shoring up a weakness with the signing of free agent cornerback Jonathan Joseph. But question still remain on that side of the ball. Is Mario Williams a linebacker? Can Kareem Jackson make strides in his second year? Will the safety position be a spot opponents can exploit? Arian Foster’s hamstring is a concern, as is whether or not Matt Schaub is the right man to get this team over the hump. But if the defense hasn’t been fixed then it won’t matter how much Foster or Schaub contribute because the Texans will fall short of expectations once again.

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