Month: January 2009 (Page 41 of 61)

Six Pack of Observations: Ravens at Titans

Here are six quick-hit observations on the Ravens’ 13-10 victory over the Titans in Saturday’s NFL divisional round playoff game.

1. Chris Johnson’s injury destroyed the Titan offense.
It’s no mystery how the Titans opened the game with a touchdown and then went scoreless until late in the fourth quarter. Johnson totaled 100 yards before an ankle injury in the second quarter sidelined him for the rest of the game. The rookie was clearly the most explosive player on the field in the first half and once he went out, LenDale White was a huge drop off. No disrespect to Justin Gage (10 receptions, 135 yards) who had a solid day, but the Titans’ offense lacked explosiveness and this game was a great example of how good Johnson was this season.

2. Joe Flacco played a perfect game.
If someone checked the stat sheet and saw that Flacco was 11 of 22 for only 161 yards and a touchdown, they would probably note that his performance was far from perfect. But in his first two career playoff games, Flacco has not turned the ball over once. For a rookie, he’s played flawlessly because he hasn’t turned the ball over, has made just enough plays in the passing game and he’s given his defense a chance to do what it does best – shut opponents down. For a rookie, he’s played two perfect games and now he’s one win away from playing in a Super Bowl.

3. Tennessee saved its worst performance for the most important game of the season.
Tennessee totaled 12 more first downs (21 to 9) than Baltimore and out gained the Ravens by 180 yards (391 to 211). But they turned the ball over three times, were penalized 12 times and were just 4 of 14 on third downs. The Titans had one of the best seasons of any team in the NFL, but not even good teams can win like this – especially not against a great defense like Baltimore’s.

4. Derrick Mason can still play.
Mason might have well been the Ravens’ entire offense today. On his lone touchdown of the afternoon, Mason snuck by the Titans’ secondary and Flacco put a perfect pass on the numbers. Then on Mason’s 37-yard reception late in the third quarter, Flacco threw into double coverage but the 34-year old vet made an outstanding adjustment on the ball and came down with the catch between two Titan defenders who couldn’t keep their balance. NFL pundits like to note how Flacco has nobody to throw to, but Mason proved once again that he could still excel at this level.

5. Alge Crumpler was a dud free agent pick up
Some football purists criticized the Falcons for cutting Crumpler – an experienced, veteran leader – in the offseason and then lauded the Titans’ decision to sign him to a two-year, $5.25 million deal. Word this preseason was that Crump was healthier than ever, his knees were stronger than they had been in previous years and he was glad to be out of the mess that was Atlanta. Then the season started and the veteran promptly disappeared. He caught just 24 passes for 257 yards and one touchdown this season, then cost the Titans dearly when he fumbled in the red zone against the Ravens on Saturday. One play doesn’t cost a team a win, but if Crumpler would have hung onto the ball the Titans might put six on the board that drive and come out with a victory.

6. Overall, this was a brutal game.
With all due respect to Sunday’s Eagles-Giants game, this was supposed to be the best matchup of the weekend. But penalties (20 total to be exact), turnovers (three to be exact – all from the Titans), injuries and cheap shots from both teams ruined an otherwise excellent matchup. And the officials were no bargain either – how does a Tennessee offensive lineman get flagged for helping Chris Johnson up after multiple Raven defenders bent him backwards after the whistle blew? Ugly doesn’t begin to describe how this game played out.

NFL Divisional Round Preview

Before I get to my Divisional Round Preview, I’d like to send all of the losers from Wild Card Weekend off the only way I know how: By jabbing them one final time.

Atlanta Falcons: Hey Mike Smith and Mike Mularkey, his name is Jerious Norwood. He’s #32 and he’s one of the best playmakers on your offense. Might want to think about using him more the next time an opposing defense figures out how to shut down Michael Turner.

Indianapolis Colts: Seven trips to the postseason in the last seven years and you only manage one Super Bowl appearance with a three-time MVP at quarterback? Dear Barbara…

Miami Dolphins: Chad, I love you man and I love your story this season. But you can’t force passes down field into double coverage and expect good things. You should have kept doing what you did all season and what you did in your first possession of the game – hit the high-percentage passes and let your receivers get the yardage.

Minnesota Vikings: Did anyone else scratch their head when Brad Childress declined a holding penalty on third down early in the first quarter that would have moved the Eagles on the edge of field goal range? Instead, it brought up forth down and David Akers drilled a 43-yarder to give Philly a 3-0 lead. Childress basically said, “I’m not sure if my defense can hold the Eagles on 3rd and 14 – better give up the field goal so we don’t give up a potential touchdown instead.” You never give your opponents points in the playoffs. Never. Not even a field goal. Force them back, force them to make a play and force them to earn the points.

Myself: I went 1-3 with my Wild Card Predictions last week. Seriously? You went with the Colts in the playoffs? A rookie in Matt Ryan? The Vikings over everyone’s sleeper team in the Eagles? You’re a freaking bum. (Ironically I went 3-1 in a family football pool because I came to my senses and picked San Diego and Philly.)

Moving on…

Chris JohnsonBaltimore Ravens (11-5) at Tennessee Titans (13-3)
Saturday, January 10, 4:30PM ET
Opening Odds: Titans –3
Over/Under: 34.5
Game Outlook:
No disrespect to the Giants and Eagles or any other team playing this weekend, but this is easily the best matchup on the divisional playoff schedule. Did you see what Ed Reed and the Ravens did to Chad Pennington and the Dolphins last week? They held them to only 276 total yards, forced five turnovers and surrendered only 52 rushing yards. And although they used a lot of gadget formations throughout the season, it’s not like Miami’s offense was a dud this year. Granted, the Titans have the seventh best rushing attack in the league and rookie Chris Johnson brings an added dimension to the field, but Mike Heimerdinger has his hands full this week trying to come up with a game plan to move the ball against a Baltimore defense allowing just over 15 points a game this season. That said, it’ll be interesting to see how rookie quarterback Joe Flacco does against the seventh best defense in the NFL. Flacco passed with flying colors last week while playing mistake-free and running for the game-clinching score in the fourth quarter. But he’ll have to do a hell of a lot more than complete 9 of 23 passes for 135 yards against a Tennessee defense that could have DT Albert Haynesworth and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch back on their defensive line. If both players are in the lineup Saturday, Flacco is going to feel the heat up the middle and from the edges so he better get rid of the ball in a timely manner. Overall, this is the best defensive matchup of the year and this game will probably come down to who doesn’t turn the ball over.
X-Factor: Chris Johnson, Titans RB
The only time the Dolphins found success last week was when they used the Ravens’ aggressive style against them and slipped backs out in the flats. Pennington was able to hit Patrick Cobbs and company for seven to 10 yard gains and the Titans could employ the same method. Johnson is a homerun threat and more than capable of taking one to the house every play. Tennessee has to get the ball in this kid’s hands and force the Ravens to miss tackles in the open field, which they have the penchant for doing at times.
Prediction: Titans 16, Ravens 13.
I’m not going to bite on this potential upset. The Ravens’ defense is absolutely nasty, but Flacco worries me against a ball-hawking Tennessee secondary and I think the Titans are going to shut down Baltimore’s running game. This game comes down to which team makes fewer mistakes and I’ll take a veteran in Kerry Collins over the rook Flacco. (Word to the wise though, Kerry – stay away from Ed Reed’s side if you can.)

Steve SmithArizona Cardinals (9-7) at Carolina Panthers (12-4)
Saturday, January 10, 8:15PM ET
Opening Odds: Panthers –10
Over/Under: 48
Game Outlook:
There’s no sense avoiding the obvious: the Cardinals are a different team at home than they are on the road. The Cardinals played an inspired game last week in their win over the Falcons, but the Panthers aren’t going to make the same mistakes Atlanta did. Unlike the Falcons, Carolina will attack the edges of Arizona’s defense with the dynamic running duo of DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart. And for as well as the Cards played against the run last Saturday, it’s highly doubtful they do it two weeks in a row, especially considering that this time they’ll be on the road. Jake Delhomme isn’t going to be as awestruck as rookie Matt Ryan was either, so don’t expect Arizona to be handed three gift turnovers like they were last week. Granted, the Cardinals did play the Panthers tough in Carolina earlier this year and probably should have beaten them, but the Cats are well rested and their defense is playing better now than it was in the middle of the season. Look for the Panthers to establish their running game early, but also get playmaker Steve Smith involved on their first two offensive possessions. Carolina loves to run zero-screens to Smith to see if he can break one early, and he just might against a defense that will be more concerned with stopping the run. Another factor working in the Panthers’ favor is that Anquan Boldin continues to be hampered by injuries. If he can’t be effective, Carolina will load up to stop the run (which Atlanta failed to do) and blanket Larry Fitzgerald in coverage. The Falcons were unable to get pressure on Kurt Warner, but Carolina won’t make the same mistake. Arizona OT Mike Gandy won’t be as lucky as he was last week playing a hobbled John Abraham, because Julius Peppers is revving to go.
X-Factor: Steve Smith, Panthers WR
Defenses try to double and triple-team this guy and he still winds up making plays. You can’t stop him – you can only hope to limit him from making game-changing plays. If the Panthers can run the ball effectively, Smith is going to have a huge day because the play action pass will open up.
Prediction: Panthers 35, Cardinals 24.
Although Arizona burned me last week when I predicted them to lose to the Falcons, I think everything that worked for the Cardinals last week will go against them this Saturday. They won’t be able to run the ball, Warner is going to see more pressure and the defense won’t shut down Williams and Stewart like they did Turner.

Donovan McNabbPhiladelphia Eagles (9-6-1) at New York Giants (12-4)
Sunday, January 11, 1:00PM ET
Opening Odds: Giants -4
Over/Under: 40
Game Outlook:
I wrote about it Sunday after the Eagles beat the Vikings and I’ll write about it again: this is not a matchup the Giants wanted. Philadelphia is brimming with confidence right now, has already beaten the Giants in New York once this season and is playing incredibly well defensively. The G-Men won’t admit it, but their fans will – they would have rather played the Cardinals this weekend than NFC East rival Philadelphia. Either way, they’ve got the Eagles and now the defending champs will have to defend their title the hard way. This game will come down to two things: 1) Brandon Jacobs and 2) protecting Eli Manning. If the Giants can get Jacobs and the running game going, it’ll help neutralize what Eagle defensive coordinator Jim Johnson does best: blitz. But if Jacobs is ineffective, the Eagles are going to send the house every play and pressure Manning, who can look like a Super Bowl winner one moment and Henry Burris the next. Not having a playmaker at receiver has hurt the Giants over the past couple weeks. Their win over the Panthers in Week 16 was inspiring, but their receivers aren’t making big plays and that’s a problem going against a secondary that is playing incredibly well right now. As for Philly, they have to stop the run. They allowed the Vikings to rush for close to 150 yards last Saturday and they were fortunate that Tarvaris Jackson couldn’t make enough plays in the passing game to beat them. If the Eagles can’t stop the run again this week, they can rest assure that Manning will beat them, even with the lack of a playmaker at receiver. They need to stuff the run, pressure Eli and get his confidence down immediately. They also need better production from Brian Westbrook, who couldn’t get going against a very good Minnesota front seven. Donovan McNabb has played extremely well over the past month, but he needs Westbrook to open things up for him so the Giants don’t just pin their ears back and pressure him into mistakes.
X-Factor: Brandon Jacobs RB Giants
If he can be effective, he’ll take the pressure off Manning and the Giants will move on. If he can’t, the Eagles win this one in a defensive struggle.
Prediction: Eagles 20, Giants 16.
I didn’t bite on the Ravens upsetting the Titans, but I will here. The Giants haven’t looked sharp in over a month and losing Burress hurt them more than they’ll admit. McNabb seems to be playing looser since being benched at Baltimore and Jim Johnson beats Kevin Gilbride in the battle of the coordinators.

Troy PolamaluSan Diego Chargers (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
Sunday, January 11, 4:45PM ET
Opening Odds: Steelers -6
Over/Under: 38
Game Outlook:
The Chargers provided the upset of Wild Card Weekend in knocking off the Colts, as Darren Sproles has emerged as the next young playmaker in San Diego’s backfield. Chances are we haven’t seen the last of him either, because word is that LaDainian Tomlinson will be out the rest of the playoffs with a groin injury. Defensively for the Chargers, coordinator Ron Rivera has had massive impact since taking over for Ted Cottrell midseason and now San Diego is playing with more confidence than earlier in the year. The biggest turnaround has been in the secondary, which had been shredded earlier in the season but has since come together and even held Peyton Manning in check the late in the game last Saturday. The true test for the Chargers this week is keeping Ben Roethlisberger (who will play despite receiving a concussion being concussed in Week 17) from making plays on third down. Teams have gotten to Big Ben, but he’s often burned them by escaping the pressure while keeping his eyes down field and making plays in the passing game. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is being held together by duct tape, so it’ll be interesting to see if Rivera can drum up a pass rush with his front seven and possibly force Roethlisberger to make mistakes like he did in the Steelers’ loss to the Titans a few weeks ago. Offensively for San Diego, if Sproles can’t find running room against the best defensive defense in the league, the game will be placed directly on quarterback Philip Rivers’ shoulders. Antonio Gates has been hobbled of late, but should play. Watch for the Steelers to blanket him in coverage and force Rivers to go to Chris Chambers and his other receivers. Rivers can’t make mistakes this weekend or else the Steeler defense will eat him alive and the wild ride will be over with for the Chargers. Anyone expecting a Pittsburgh romp will be sorely mistaken because this game should be tight throughout. This game also has some added intrigue because when these two teams met earlier this season, the Steelers came away with an 11-10 victory, which was the first 11-10 final in NFL history. Of course the final score should have been 18-10 because Troy Polamalu scored a defensive touchdown in the waning seconds of the game, but the officials blew a forward-lateral call and the score came off the board, resulting in the 11-10 finish. It was one of the most bizarre plays of the season, which incidentally cost gamblers millions of dollars.
X-Factor: Troy Polamalu, Steelers S.
Any chance I get to write about a playmaking safety, the better. Much like the Ravens’ Ed Reed, Polamalu is a game-changer and he made the catch of the year in the Steelers’ win against the Chargers earlier this season. He’s the type of defender that can cover the entire field and there’s no doubt he’ll make a play or two to shift the momentum of the game in Pittsburgh’s favor.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Chargers 13.
Although this is definitely another game San Diego can win, I don’t see them moving the ball as well as they did against Indy. The Steelers have issues, but their defense should win this one for them.

Breaking down the potential upsets of the Divisional Round

There are eight teams playing in four playoff games this weekend. Of the eight, two of the teams (the Ravens and Eagles) have legitimate shots of pulling off upsets, one has a decent shot (Chargers) and one might be lucky to still be in the game by the fourth quarter (Cardinals).

Granted, these are playoff games we’re talking about, so every team has a chance to pull off an upset. But does anyone outside of Arizona truly believe that the Cardinals will fly east and beat the Panthers with Carolina coming off a bye week? The Cards were impressive in their win over the Falcons, but they’ve always played better on the road than at home so there’s a big possibility that ‘Zona won’t make it to the next round.

The Chargers could very well go into Pittsburgh and knock off a Steelers team that has offensive line issues and a quarterback that doesn’t mind turning the ball over from time to time. But Pittsburgh’s defense is freaking nasty and I can’t see Darren Sproles rushing for over 100 yards like he did last week. Again though, a few key bounces go the Chargers way and SD could pull off the upset.

But the two games people are mostly taking about are the Ravens-Titans and the Eagles-Giants matchups. Those are easily the best two matchups of the weekend and games that could go either way.

Let’s gauge these two potential upsets:

Ravens at Titans: Baltimore’s defense has stifled opponents all year, but Tennessee’s has played just as well. Look for the Titans to gang up to stop the Ravens’ outstanding rushing game and force rookie quarterback Joe Flacco to beat them via the pass. For as good as Baltimore’s defense is and for as well as Flacco has played this season, he’s still inexperienced, as is head coach John Harbaugh. A lot of folks are getting wrapped up in how good the Ravens defense is, but inexperience is eventually going to catch up with Flacco and Harbaugh. I think it will be this week against a veteran Titans squad with an equally good defense.
Upset rating: 7 out of 10.

Eagles at Giants: Philadelphia has been one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL this season and they didn’t necessarily rough up the Vikings as many predicted last Sunday. But the G-Men haven’t looked sharp in over a month and if the Eagles can stop Brandon Jacobs and the running game, Eli Manning might succumb to the pressure without having a big time playmaker at receiver. Philly has also already beaten the Giants in New York this year and their defense matches up very well with what the G-Men bring to the table. Brian Westbrook isn’t 100% and it’s tough to win in New York, but I actually think the Eagles have a better shot with Donovan McNabb and company of producing an upset than the Ravens do in Tennessee.
Upset rating: 8 out of 10.

What’s your upset of the weekend?

Hot Stove League: It’s getting hot in here!

I know that I’ve been clamoring for some action in the MLB Hot Stove League for weeks, even months. But please, I can’t keep up with the floodgates these last few days. Well, here are the highlights (i.e., the bigger names), and you can bet much more will happen in the coming weeks as we get closer to spring training:

First off, two long-time players for a single team will have new addresses in 2009: Trevor Hoffman and John Smoltz. Hoffman, who has been with the Padres since 1993 when he came over as part of a trade with the Marlins for Gary Sheffield, has not only been a great closer for San Diego for 16 seasons—he has become the all-time MLB leader in saves with 554. But when San Diego no longer put the welcome mat out, Hoffman sought to sign elsewhere, and settled on a one year, $6 million deal with the Milwaukee Brewers that can also pay him $1.5 million in performance bonuses.

As for Smoltz, he came to the Braves in 1987 from Detroit in the Doyle Alexander trade, and has been with Atlanta, his only major league team, for 21 years. But the Braves, who are trying to inject more youth into their roster, did not offer Smoltz the money he was looking for and so he signed with the Boston Red Sox. Granted, Smoltz still is injured and probably won’t be available to the Sox until a few months into the season, but you’d rather have him in September and beyond anyway.

The Sox also finalized their deal with free agent RHP Brad Penny on Friday, so both he and Smoltz will join a rotation that includes Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Whoa. I gotta be honest, I think I like their rotation better than the CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett-led Yankees’. Not to sit tight after losing out on the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes to the Yankees, Boston also signed utility outfielder Rocco Baldelli, formerly of the Rays, who grew up in New England.

The Cubs signed outfielder Milton Bradley to a 3-year, $30 million deal, a year after he had one of his most productive seasons with the Texas Rangers (22 homers, .321 batting average). The Rays, who nearly won a title with all that youth in 2008, signed veteran OF Pat Burrell away from Philly, the team that beat them for said title.

Also, Jason Giambi has returned to his roots, signing a one-year. $5.25 million deal with Oakland, the team he began his career with before taking his big bat (and his tubes of stuff, allegedly) for big bucks.

Oh, and as if the Mets and Braves didn’t have enough to battle about on the field (I bet New York is thrilled not to have to face Smoltz anymore), the two teams are reportedly fighting hard over the services of one Derek Lowe. Then, whoever loses out on Lowe can turn their attention to the likes of Ben Sheets, Freddy Garcia or Andy Pettitte.

I know the economy still sucks, but at least we have some signings and movement.

LeBron leads Cavs past Celtics

In a game that was closer than the final score, the Cavaliers went on a 9-2 run in the middle of the fourth quarter to coast to an impressive 98-83 victory over the struggling Celtics. Cleveland benefited from a couple of favorable calls to start that run. First, there was a phantom offensive foul on Leon Powe, and then there was the officials’ decision not to reset the shot clock after LeBron stole the ball and lost it out of bounds (which ultimately resulted in a shot clock violation for the Celtics). Even though the Cavs outplayed the Celtics for much of the game, Boston was hanging around and it was those two defensive stops that ignited the run that ultimately put the game out of reach.

LeBron was outstanding — 38 points, seven rebounds, six assists, four steals and three blocks. Truly, it was an MVP performance for all of the doubters out there. In the past, I’ve been critical of his defense, but it looks as if his stint with Team USA has done wonders for his intensity on that end of the court. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that he’s extremely motivated when he faces Paul Pierce. Pierce struggled for much of the night and that had everything to do with LeBron’s defense.

A few random thoughts about the game…

– Where was the crowd? Given a game of this magnitude, I was expecting to tune in to see a playoff atmosphere, but the Cleveland fans sat on their hands for much of the game. They didn’t really get loud until that aforementioned run in the middle of the fourth quarter. It looked like a typical NBA crowd and that’s pretty sad given the relative importance of this game.

– I don’t like the call to wear the throwback uniforms in a game like this — it’s just too important of a game to throw crazy unis on your players. Basketball players are creatures of habit and it messes with their psyche to be wearing road throwbacks in a game of this magnitude. Ultimately, it didn’t matter, but it might have.

– Did anyone else see KG intentionally run into LeBron after the refs refused to reset the shot clock? He walked right past LeBron and hit him with a shoulder. He looked like a high school bully trying to pick a fight. LeBron reacted by turning and glancing at Garnett, but kept his cool.

– The Celtics have to do something about their bench. They lost James Posey and P.J. Brown and the guys they currently have aren’t ready to step in and play crunch time minutes like those guys did in the playoffs last season. This will be one of the more interesting storylines between now and the trade deadline and then throughout the playoffs. If the Celtics don’t repeat or at least make the Finals, then Danny Ainge is going to be second-guessed for electing not to re-sign Posey. He is likely to make a move or two to bolster the bench, but as I wrote earlier this week, they don’t have any expendable pieces to offer in trade.

– I brought this up last season, but I don’t like the way Doc Rivers uses Pierce, Garnett and Ray Allen. When you have three players of that caliber, there’s no reason to have more than one of them out of the game at any given time. Rivers elects to bench Pierce and KG at the same time and have Ray Ray out there with the reserves, but he’s not capable of carrying that unit night in and night out, especially now that they’re without Posey and Brown. I would have two of the Big Three on the court at all times. But that’s me.

– Mo Williams looks like a great fit in Cleveland. He had 13 points on 5-9 shooting, and was the Cavs’ main playmaker when LeBron went to the bench. I was sad to see the Bucks trade him away, but apparently he didn’t get along with Michael Redd — who knows, maybe Milwaukee should have jettisoned Redd instead. Williams has always struggled with his defense, but now that LeBron is doing most of the playmaking on offense, Mo can focus more on defending his guy and getting after loose balls. He had a couple of nice hustle plays tonight.

– Wally Szczerbiak is washed up. I don’t know if Mike Brown was trying to showcase him tonight for a trade, but it’s mind-boggling to me that this guy is getting minutes over Daniel Gibson and Sasha Pavlovic. He can’t really defend and if his shot isn’t falling (and it wasn’t tonight), he’s basically useless. It will be interesting to see if the Cavs decide to trade him for some more help or if they let his contract expire at the end of the season and take the salary cap relief.

– J.J. Hickson looks like a player. He’s raw, but he’s athletic and has some moves down low.

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