Closer. It’s one of the toughest jobs in baseball, in all of sports even. Or so we’re led to believe. What is it about getting three outs in the ninth inning that’s so different from getting three outs in the seventh? Why do managers make situational decisions in the seventh (e.g. bringing in lefties to face lefties) but insist on using their pre-assigned “closer” in the ninth? What if the situation in the seventh is far more dire than that of the ninth (e.g. if the three, four, and five hitters are due up or the bases are loaded)? Why isn’t the best pitcher on the mound in the biggest spots?

I’ll tell you why: saves, the only statistic that changes the way the game is played, as well as the way it’s financed. A save situation is the only time a manager makes a decision based on arbitrary numerals rather than what’s going to help his team win. The only time he’d do it on purpose anyway. To quote Michael Lewis in Moneyball:

The central insight that led [Billy Beane] to turn minor league nobodies into successful big league closers and to refuse to pay them the many millions a year they demanded once they became free agents was that it was more efficient to create a closer than to buy one. Established closers were systematically overpriced, in large part because of the statistic by which closers were judged in the marketplace: “saves.” The very word made the guy who achieved them sound vitally important. But the situation typically described by the save—the bases empty in the ninth inning with the team leading—was far less critical than a lot of other situations pitchers faced. The closer’s statistic did not have the power of language; it was just a number. You could take a slightly above average pitcher and drop him into the closer’s role, let him accumulate some gaudy number of saves, and then sell him off. You could, in essence, buy a stock, pump it up with false publicity, and sell it off for much more than you’d paid for it.

Before I really get started I suppose I should give full disclosure. I’m a Mets fan, woe be upon me, and that’s why this stuff’s on my mind. For some reason Terry Collins insists on calling Frank Francisco his closer. Frank Francisco, he of the 8.59 ERA and 2.05 WHIP. He of the three losses, 14 earned runs, eight walks, and 22 hits in just 14.2 innings pitched. He is our closer, and nobody else. All those questions in the first paragraph, yeah, I’ve been shouting them at my television over the past few days.

Yet it’s not those numbers that most horrify me, it’s these: two years and $12 million, or Frank Frank’s contract. It’s because of them that Francisco remains in his position, “for now.”

Like so many other closers, Francisco has but one man to thank for those numbers. That man is Jerome Holtzman, the sportswriter who invented the save in 1960, leading to it becoming an official statistic in 1969.

There was a time when the best relievers were called “firemen,” and they pitched when they were needed most. Bases loaded with one out in the eighth? That’s fireman time. Closer time is the ninth inning, with a three run lead and nobody on base, which has lead some to call it “the most overrated position in sports.”

Those who believe in the sanctity of the closer will tell you the ninth inning is different, there’s more pressure, it gets in your head the way no other inning can. To them I say this: bullshit. Dave Smith of Retrosheet conducted a study of late-inning leads from 1944 to 2003 and an additional 14 seasons prior. He found that regardless of strategy, teams that enter the ninth inning with a lead win 95 percent of the time. The figure doesn’t even vary all that much, the high was 96.7 percent (1909), while the low was 92.5 percent (1941).

Granted, those figures apply to any lead, not just “save situations,” so they’re not really relevant to this discussion, right? Wrong. Smith calculated the figures for those scenarios as well, and they’re not all that different. Going into the ninth inning, a team ahead by one run wins 85 percent of the time, if they’re two runs up it’s 94 percent, and a three-run lead gets you 96 percent.

The problem for most teams is that they obsessively save their closer for the ninth, he might go a week without seeing action during a losing streak. As a result, they lose in the middle innings. The Mets have the exact opposite problem. Their fireman situations often come in the ninth inning, but only because Francisco creates them. They save the guy they think is their best reliever, because he’s making the most money, and waste better pitchers like Bobby Parnell, Tim Byrdak, and Jon Rauch in the middle innings. Now, the Mets think Francisco is their best for a reason, and maybe he is. But he’s not their best right now, and until he is there should be someone else on the hill in critical situations, regardless of what inning it is.

New York City based singer/songwriter Ari Hest has a very passionate fan base, one that helped choose the songs for his 2009 release, Twelve Mondays. Hest is back with a brand new album of new material, Sunset Over Hope Street, and as always, this prolific songwriter has delivered another set of stellar songs that can maybe best be described as alternative pop.

And speaking of passionate, Hest is a huge fan of the New York Yankees, and we had the chance to catch up with him while he’s on tour in support of Sunset Over Hope Street, to ask him some questions about the 2010 baseball season complete with predictions:

The Scores Report: So how do you feel about the Yankees’ chances this year as a whole–and where you do expect them to end up in the standings and why?

Ari Hest: I think the Yanks will finish first in the division, but I have doubts about them beating Texas in the playoffs. The pitching isn’t quite what it used to be.

TSR: What do you think about the starting rotation and do you think the Yankees can get by with Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia as the 4 and 5 starters, or will that offense just bludgeon opponents anyway?

AH: Actually I think they will win around 90 games and still take the division, so neither their pitching nor offense will be anything special — only enough to win the division.

TSR: How many years do you think Mariano Rivera can effectively pitch?

AH: I think somewhere around 2046 he’ll retire. He’s only 43 now.

TSR: What are your long-range predictions for who will meet in the World Series and why?

AH: World Series this year: Phillies beat Rangers in 7 games, since both teams are stacked. Nobody can beat that Philly pitching in a short series.

TSR: What are your predictions for AL and NL MVP?

AH: AL – Josh Hamilton and NL – Ryan Howard

Bonus question, TSR: Do you think the NFL labor situation will be settled before September?

AH: I really hope so. It’s so lame. And the fans get hurt the most.

For more information on Ari Hest music and tour dates, please visit www.arihest.com. And maybe we’ll check back with Ari at the end of the season to see how things shook out.

The regular season is almost over, and we have an almost anti-climatic AL East race going on, with just playoff positioning to determine. In the NL, the Phillies and Reds are in but the Giants, Padres and Braves are battling for the final two spots. The Rockies sure flamed out fast, didn’t they? I guess this will be our final power rankings for the year, and it’s time to focus on our NFL MVP, Coach of Year and Rookie of Year power rankings. Thanks for reading, folks and enjoy the playoffs!

1. Philadelphia Phillies (96-64)—As a Mets fan, it pains me to say this, but I can’t see anyone beating these guys at this point. They had their rough patch the first half of the season when the Braves and Mets battled for first place and they sat back and watched, but here they are.

2. Tampa Bay Rays (94-66)—It’s going to be a photo finish in the AL East.

3. New York Yankees (94-65)—I feel like NY will wind up with the wild card, and they may want it that way so they can face Minnesota instead of Texas, if only to avoid Cliff Lee.

4. Minnesota Twins (93-67)—One win this past week, but it doesn’t even matter having clinched a while ago.

5. San Francisco Giants (91-69)—No champagne yet, guys. But this team is looking mighty strong heading into the postseason. However, like I said, no champagne…

6. Atlanta Braves (90-70)—Tough luck drawing the Phillies this weekend, and their lead in the wild card is just one game over San Diego. At least we have some tight races to look forward to in the NL.

7. San Diego Padres (89-71)—A good thing they didn’t trade Adrian Gonzalez. Wow, what a shame it would be for these guys to miss the postseason at this point, but it might happen. Then again, see Giants above….and don’t count the Braves out from collapsing either.

8. Cincinnati Reds (89-71)—They could be dangerous this month because of three words. Joey Freaking Votto.

9. Texas Rangers (89-71)—Cliff Lee and that Murderer’s Row lineup could make noise too, but I’m not banking on it.

10. Boston Red Sox (87-72)—Tough division, but it’s likely the Sox will finish with a worse record than any of the 8 playoff teams.

Things have shifted a lot in MLB since I took a hiatus last weekend. Wow, have they ever shifted. The Rockies have now lost 5 in a row and are fading out of the race. The Phillies have won 11 in a row to take over the top spot. The Rays are ahead of the Yankees now in the AL East and the Twins are as hot as the Phils. The Braves are whopping 7 games back of the Phillies now. Damn, this is getting fun.

1. Philadelphia Phillies (93-61)—Peaking but maybe too soon. Still, when you have Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels, it’s not really fair. And everyone else is getting healthy now.

2. Tampa Bay Rays (92-61)—They finally overtake the Yanks, but have company up here. Still, they’ve been consistent all year and they have David Price at the top of their rotation.

3. Minnesota Twins (92-61)—Even without Justin Morneau, this is a very dangerous team. But are they peaking too soon as well?

4. New York Yankees (92-62)—When I heard the New York sports talk guys being all gloom and doom after a split with the Rays this past week, I didn’t understand it. But when you look at the remaining schedules of both teams, you get it. A loss to Boston last night probably didn’t do much for Yankees fans’ confidence.

5. San Francisco Giants (87-67)—Making for one of the most compelling pennant races, because the winner will move on while the loser may not even take the wild card.

6. San Diego Padres (86-67)—Looking back, that long losing streak came at the right time, and the wrong time, at the same time.

7. Cincinnati Reds (86-68)—The magic number is 3. I wonder if Brandon Phillips will get a Christmas card from the Cardinals’ organization this year.

8. Atlanta Braves (86-68)—Now trailing in the wild card race by a half-game. This is another compelling race that shouldn’t have been so compelling, but seriously, how do you hold off the Phils and that pitching staff?

9. Texas Rangers (85-68)—Magic number is 2, will they be the second team to clinch?

10. Boston Red Sox (85-68)—I don’t think they’ve officially been eliminated yet, but it’s getting very, very late. And what a shame for a team that really is as talented as most of the teams on this Top 10 list.

The Yankees just keep winning, and suddenly the Padres keep losing, sitting with an 8-game losing streak, but still clinging to a three-game lead over the Giants. We may wind up with very few pennant races, but we are likely to have lots of new match-ups in the postseason this year. For that, I’m excited. And let me go out on a limb here. Watch out for the Rockies. They have this knack for winning 98% of their games in September and climbing fast in the standings.

1. New York Yankees (85-50)—They haven’t lost since I did my last rankings. The Rays caught up, but then the Yanks jumped back out to a 1.5-game lead. I know I’ve been high on the Rays, but the Yankees ain’t gonna fold. And CC for Cy Young?

2. Tampa Bay Rays (83-51)—With a 7-game lead in the wild card, that’s got to be what the Rays are gunning for. And they’d have to suffer a major collapse for that to happen at this point.

3. Cincinnati Red (78-56)—No longer a flash in the pan, the Reds are not just for real, they are striking fear in every other MLB team. How about the addition of Aroldis Chapman? Did anyone thing he would be helping this team in a pennant race in September?

4. Minnesota Twins (78-57)—The White Sox have Manny Ramirez now, but that won’t stop the Twins from pulling away this month.

5. Atlanta Braves (78-57)—Hanging tough as the Phillies make a charge. This could be one division race worth biting your nails over.

6. San Diego Padres (76-57)—Speaking of biting nails, how are you Padres’ fans feeling these days? Yikes.

7. Texas Rangers (75-59)—Now with a 9-game lead, Nolan Ryan can print those playoff tickets.

8. Philadelphia Phillies (77-58)—This team has caught fire at the right time, and we all knew they had it in them. One game back, and the Braves could wind up missing the postseason entirely after a great year.

9. Boston Red Sox (76-58)—A good season, and they’d be in the divisional hunt in every other division but the AL East.

10. San Francisco Giants (74-61)—With the Padres losing 8 in a row, the Giants have still not been able to capitalize. And now they trail the Phillies by 3 games in the wild card hunt.