I don’t know how he did it, but Chad Ford convinced 15 NBA GMs/executives to rank the top 13 point guards in the draft. If I were running a team and he asked me to do this, I would have told him to go jump off a cliff. (Or I’d have my secretary rank the players by how cute she thinks they are and pass that off as my list.)

Anyway, here are the rankings, along with an average ranking. Ford’s column has a lot more detail on each player.

1. Ricky Rubio (avg 1.9)
2. Stephen Curry (2.4)
3. Jonny Flynn (3.0)
4. Jrue Holiday (3.8)
5. Tyreke Evans (4.5)
6. Jeff Teague (6.5)
7. Brandon Jennings (6.8)
8. Eric Maynor (8.0)
9. Ty Lawson (9.5)
10. Patrick Mills (10.0)
11. Darren Collison (11.0)
12. Nick Calathes (12.0)
13. Toney Douglas (12.5)

I’m surprised that Stephen Curry moved up so much. Prior to the combine, there were still some who questioned whether or not he was even a first round talent. But apparently he put those concerns to rest. Besides, if you can shoot the ball like he can (and aren’t a complete stiff in other areas of the game), there’s a place for you in the NBA.

Brandon Jennings is hurting himself by skipping the combine and the Reebok Eurocamp. He’s going to need to go head to head with some of these players if he wants to stick in the lottery. Conversely, Jonny Flynn is impressing in his interviews and teams are happy to see that he measures over six-foot in shoes. He’s basically the same size as Chris Paul. So is Ty Lawson, but he continues to fall. I still think whoever gets him in the mid- or late-first round is going to have a starter-caliber point guard in a couple of seasons.

Florida’s Nick Calathes raised a few eyebrows when he decided to sign a three-year deal with Greek team Panathinaikos, but since he already has dual citizenship and a closer look at the contract reveals that he’d need to go in the lottery to match the financial windfall he’s going to enjoy overseas, it’s probably a good decision for the young man.

With the NBA Draft Lottery behind us, we now know the exact order of the first 14 picks. The Los Angeles Clippers hit paydirt when they won the right to draft Oklahoma forward Blake Griffin with the first overall pick. The Grizzlies moved up from #6 to #2, and the Thunder moved up one spot to pick #3. The big losers Tuesday night were Sacramento and Washington, who had the best and second-best shot at the top pick, but instead fell to #4 and #5, respectively.

Mock drafts are tough for me because I’m usually thinking about what teams should do instead of trying to predict what they will do. This mock will be more predictive, but if I disagree with a selection, I’ll say so. Over the next few weeks, I’ll update this mock to jive with the latest news from around the league. It’s still very early in the process so things are very fluid. One mock has a player going #11 while another may have him going #29.

I’m just going to make picks for the first fourteen slots on the first go-round and then provide the picks of a few different mocks that I respect for #15-#30, along with a short writeup for each team.

#1 LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Even Mike Dunleavy can’t screw this one up. Barring something obscenely out of the blue, Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin will be the first overall pick. The Clippers could use a power forward to replace Elton Brand, and Griffin is the only “sure thing” in this draft. He’s strong, skilled and athletic, and he has an improving offensive game. He has star written all over him.
Pick: Griffin, PF

#2 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
The Grizzlies were reportedly one of the few teams more interested in UConn’s 7’3” center Hasheem Thabeet than they were in Blake Griffin. The Grizzlies already have 7’1” Marc Gasol, so Thabeet wouldn’t fill a need like Jordan Hill, Ricky Rubio or Brandon Jennings would (assuming the team isn’t sold on Hakim Warrick or Mike Conley), but Thabeet has the potential to become a dominant defensive center along the lines of Dikembe Mutombo. But will he be willing to put the work in to become an effective post player?
Pick: Thabeet, C

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As all eyes turn to today’s NFL Draft, why not take a moment for a little speculating about June’s NBA Draft.

Three significant underclassmen guards announced their entry into the NBA Draft this week – Davidson’s Stephen Curry and North Carolina’s Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson – joining a talent pool already loaded with guards.

Here are list of a few more who figure to be in the running to be top 20 picks in this year’s draft:

Ricky Rubio, Spain

James Harden, Arizona State

Tyreke Evans, Memphis

Brandon Jennings, Italy

DeMar DeRozan, USC

Eric Maynor, VCU

Gerald Henderson, Duke

Jrue Holliday, UCLA

Terrence Williams, Louisville

Jonny Flynn, Syracuse

Jeff Teague, Wake Forest

Patrick Mills, St. Mary’s

The question is, where are these three newcomers going to go? ESPN’s Chad Ford doesn’t even have Ellington in his top 30 available prospects, and while he did come up big in the Tar Heels’ championship run this season, he had to withdraw from the draft last year because of a lack of interest from NBA teams.

Lawson’s stock is up this year, and he has the reputation of being one of the fastest end-to-end point guard prospects in the draft. But will NBA GMs side with him over the just-as-quick and better-shooting Jonny Flynn, Eric Maynor or Jeff Teague?

Same goes for Curry. From a production standpoint, he’s light years ahead of everybody on this list except perhaps Lawson or James Harden. But he would likely enter the NBA as the league’s skinniest player, and given teams’ tendencies to let workouts and physical potential rule the day, it may be tough for them to take Curry over say, a DeMar DeRozan, Tyreke Evans or even a Jrue Holliday – all players with NBA-ready bodies and major upside.

Wayne Ellington couldn’t miss, Ty Lawson couldn’t drive without getting fouled and Michigan State couldn’t handle the ball — this all added up to a 89-72 win for the Tar Heels.

North Carolina jumped out early and Michigan State simply couldn’t recover. They looked tight; the jumpers weren’t falling and they turned the ball over 21 times, which is a TON. Seemingly every time Ty Lawson put the ball on the floor the officials blew the whistle — he ended up shooting 18 free throws and there were a number of questionable calls. For the most part, the refs called a tight game, and that worked against the Spartans, who are used to the rough and tumble play in the Big Ten. Lawson finished with 21 points, six assists and eight steals.

Michigan State didn’t give up; the Spartans had a few opportunities to cut into the lead, but they missed a bunch of threes and anytime the Tar Heels needed a bucket, someone stepped up and knocked down a shot. Ellington and Danny Green combined to shoot 5 of 6 from long range. It was obvious that the estimated 60,000 Spartan fans in attendance were desperate for something to cheer for — but the run never came.

All in all, it was a pretty boring finale to a pretty boring tournament. There were a few buzzer beaters and several good games, but this year’s tourney didn’t have the drama of years past. I don’t know if it was just bad luck or a lack of mid-majors in the field, but it just wasn’t quite as exciting as usual.

Maybe they need to go to a BCS-type format…

Just kidding.

When I filled out my bracket, I felt that North Carolina’s chances were tied to the health of Ty Lawson’s toe. And I still think so.

The ACC POY had to sit out the ACC tournament to allow the swelling to go down. And this wasn’t just any swelling; Dick Vitale said that the toe was “cartoonishly” swollen (and I think he just made that word up). This is obviously a huge concern for North Carolina.

He injured the toe on March 6 and played two days later against Duke, scoring 13 points (on 2 of 7 shooting) and dishing out nine assists. He sat out both of North Carolina’s ACC tournament games, and the Tar Heels lost to Florida State. They aren’t the same team without him.

I think that UNC can get past the first two rounds even if Ty Lawson isn’t 100%. But I’m not sure that they can get by Gonzaga without him playing at a high level. This is probably the biggest “IF” of the entire tournament. If Lawson can play at 90-95%, then the Tar Heels are probably the tournament favorite. If he can’t, then they could easily lose before the Final Four.

So how do we handle this? Well, for the purposes of a single bracket, I’m going to wager that a “cartoonishly” swollen toe isn’t going to be 90-95% healed in time for the tournament. I don’t particularly like Oklahoma or Syracuse to beat them unless Lawson is out or very limited, so I am going to put the Tar Heels through to the Final Four. If I were in two or more brackets, I’d have one where North Carolina loses in the Final Four semis, and one where they lose to Gonzaga in the Sweet Sixteen. The bottom line is that I’m betting that Lawson’s toe is not good enough for him to play at a high level for six games over the next three weeks.

If Lawson had been healthy heading into the tournament, I would have picked the Tar Heels over Connecticut for the title. I haven’t seen a guy play this well on a bum toe, so either it wasn’t ever as bad as it seemed, or Lawson has a tremendous ability to play with pain. I’m bummed about my bracket blowing up in my face (thanks, Pitt), but I feel like my original take sans health issues — UNC & UConn — was spot on, but I couldn’t in good conscience pick a team whose best player was gimpy with a bum toe. Simply stated, I guessed wrong on Lawson’s toe.

I think we’ll see a UNC-UConn final, but Michigan State and Villanova are both playing their best basketball of the season. It should be an interesting Final Four.

These March Madness diaries have turned into something of a tour of the sports bars of Orange County. Last Thursday it was Rudy’s in Newport Beach (still my favorite), yesterday it was the Costa Mesa Hooters, and tonight it’s Sandbox, a relatively new sports bar/lounge on Beach Blvd in Huntington Beach. The setup is nice – but no wifi, so this diary is going up in one fell swoop – with a number of HD flatscreens positioned around the restaurant. At night, it turns into more of a lounge/dance club for the well-dressed. Our server’s name is Jessie and she’s looking sharp in her little black dress. We’ll see if I can get a picture of her for you.

I’m watching the games with LaRusso and his co-worker/buddy Kevin, who is from Foxboro, so he’s a big Patriots, Celtics and Red Sox fan. We got into a minor spat last year over whether or not the Celtics would have beat the Lakers had Andrew Bynum been healthy – he thought a Boston win would have been a sure thing while I thought it would have thrown the series on its ear, but we’re way past that now.

5:14 PM: Louisville is spanking Arizona (not a huge surprise) and Oklahoma is up eight or ten on Syracuse (a bit of a surprise). I think the Orangemen have a shot at pulling this one out, though it’s not looking particularly good right now.

5:20 PM: What is the deal with these Howie Long commercials where he mocks anyone who has a truck that’s not a Chevy? This probably brings back memories of high school for Howie. Is there any chance that he wasn’t stuffing freshman in lockers on a regular basis? He reminds me of a meaner “Big John” from “Can’t Buy Me Love.” He was the one who stuck his butt out the window of a house party and farted in the face of a young Seth Green. For those that haven’t seen the flick, it’s one of my favorites from the ’80s — McDreamy plays a McLoser who pays a girl to date him so he can be popular. Hilarity (and surprisingly touching social commentary) ensues. Anyway, I’m waiting for one of these guys in these commercials to tell Howie to go f*ck himself. Do we really need a washed up NFLer mocking a fellow truck owner because it has a convenient “man step” or gets two fewer miles to the gallon? Give me a break.

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It looks like Ty Lawson’s toe is good enough to play against Gonzaga in the Sweet Sixteen on Friday.

“It’s getting better,” Lawson said Tuesday. “I’m walking on it better. Hopefully in a couple of days, it’ll be back to 100 percent.”

He participated in the team’s shootaround Monday and expected to go through some drills during practice this week. But the team has been cautious, keeping him out of practice for almost two weeks, in addition to missing both of the Tar Heels’ ACC tournament games and their NCAA opener against Radford.

[Roy] Williams said the injury will linger.

“It’s here,” he said. “It’s going to be here. It’s not going to go away. It’s going to hurt the whole rest of the season until he can take that time off.”

“I don’t think he’s going to be 100 percent,” Williams said. “But we’ll take whatever we can get, especially if it’s like that performance Saturday. That’s about as good as I’ve had a point guard play in 21 years as a head coach. I even told him that I was thinking of calling him ‘Rambo’ instead of ‘Dennis the Menace.”

All right, so he’s going to play. After performing well (though looking a little gimpy) against LSU, that’s no surprise. But is 80% or 90% of Ty Lawson enough to get the Tar Heels past a good Gonzaga team? That question will be answered on Friday.

From UNC Basketball, a quote from UNC assistant coach, Joe Holladay, commenting on North Carolina’s practice on Monday.

“I saw him today. We didn’t do a whole lot today, but we put up a lot of shots. He participated in everything we did [in practice today]. He’s sore, but he always moves around like an old man … He’s moving around a little cautiously and is able to shoot the basketball, which is a good sign because there for a week he couldn’t even come up on his toe to shoot. So I think he is doing as well as can be expected.”

It’s a good sign (for Tar Heel fans) that he was able to shoot after hearing a “popping” sound in his toe against LSU on Saturday.

Those amateur bracketologists out there that have North Carolina in their Final Four might want to re-think that pick. Ty Lawson is doubtful for the opening round game against Radford.

North Carolina coach Roy Williams said Wednesday there is a “huge, huge probability Ty Lawson will not play” in Thursday’s NCAA tournament opening round game against Radford because of the injury to Lawson’s right big toe.

“Some things would have to change drastically before I’d change my mind on that,” said Williams, whose No. 1-seeded Tar Heels face Radford at 2:50 p.m. Thursday in the first round of the NCAA tournament.

Williams said his point guard, the ACC’s Player of the Year, has been limited in the past two practices and wasn’t able to do any live drills against any of his teammates. Lawson was injured in practice on March 6.

Wait, it gets worse…

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It’s nice to have a President that knows a little something about sports. He filled out a bracket for ESPN, but he picked North Carolina to win it all, so he must have missed the news about Ty Lawson’s big toe. (Or maybe he knows something I don’t.)

Full story.