Melky Cabrera and the Most Costly Failed Drug Test of All Time

Major League Baseball announced yesterday it would be suspending San Francisco Giants’ outfielder and All-Star Game MVP Melky Cabrera for 50 games following his testing positive for the performance-enhancing substance  testosterone. The news will be all over television screens, newspapers, and the minds of baseball reporters, fans, and executives—for a day or two at least. But with Cabrera in the midst of a career year and eligible for free agency this offseason, it could well haunt him for the rest of his life.

Cabrera is hitting .346 with 11 home runs, 60 RBI, 13 stolen bases, and a league-leading 159 hits for the Giants this season, his first in San Francisco. He came to the team from Kansas City after being traded for left-handed pitcher Jonathan Sanchez in November and quickly signed a one-year, $6 million deal to avoid arbitration. Cabrera enjoyed similar success playing for the Royals in 2011, hitting .305 with 18 home runs, 87 RBI, and 20 stolen bases. In the prime of his career at age 28 and coming off two great seasons at the dish, Cabrera was sure to receive a multi-year, big money contract this winter. The failed drug test and suspension will change that.

The statistical surge in his breakout season last year came in large part as a result of increased power numbers. Along with career highs in home runs (18) and OPS (.809), Cabrera hit 44 doubles, 16 more than his previous best. It’s impossible to measure what effect his use of testosterone had on those numbers, and even more difficult when it comes to its impact on his even more dramatic spike in batting average. It’s hard to argue that being bigger or stronger helps put the bat on the ball. Nonetheless, teams in need of a good hitter this offseason will be deservedly wary of giving a long-term contract to a player whose output may (or may not) have been significantly affected by his violating the sport’s drug policy.

Before this development, Cabrera might have been looking at a deal along the lines of those signed by (the arguably overpaid) Torii Hunter (five years, $90 million) or (the definitely overpaid) Aaron Rowand (five years, $60 million). But his current prospects will be closer to a few other outfielders on the list of players suspended for using performance-enhancing drugs. Namely Mike Cameron, Jose Guillen, and Manny Ramirez. It’s important to note that none of the players on the list of PED suspensions has ever signed anything longer than a two-year contract after failing a drug test. Most had to play it one year at a time for the rest of their careers, as teams were unwilling to grant them anything long-term both for PR reasons and the aforementioned suspicion that their stats would shrink absent the drugs. By failing this drug test the Melk Man has gone from being a name close to the top of every team’s letter to Santa to one who will be lucky to have more than a team or two willing to take a short-term flyer on him in the hopes that he can sustain his production. When things are all said and done, this one failed drug test could end up costing Cabrera more than $60 to 70 million and a whole lot of the peace of mind that comes from knowing where your next paycheck’s coming from.

And hey, that’s just the effects it’ll have on Cabrera and his wallet. Let’s not forget that baseball is a team sport, and that the 50 game suspension comes at a time when the 64-54 Giants are just one game behind the Dodgers in the NL West and deep in the midst of a playoff (and maybe even pennant) run. But the team only has 44 games left in the season, meaning Cabrera will also miss the play-in game should the Giants capture a wild card spot and at least part of their division series (if they make it that far) regardless of the nature of their playoff berth. That is, assuming they get one at all without Cabrera, who has been a large, but ultimately indefinable part of the team’s success. One thing is certain, the San Francisco front office comes off looking like a bunch of future-telling baseball geniuses, as the team traded for Hunter Pence in July. Without Pence, the team would be left with an incredibly shallow outfield. I mean, they were already shallow back there in the grass, that’s why they were willing to let go of Tommy Joseph, one of their top two or three prospects to get Pence in the first place.

Before I sign off, I’d like to note one more thing. As soon as the report of his failed drug test was released, Cabrera released a statement through the players’ union to apologize and admit his mistake, saying, “My positive test was the result of my use of a substance I should not have used. I accept my suspension under the Joint Drug Program and I will try to move on with my life. I am deeply sorry for my mistake and I apologize to my teammates, to the San Francisco Giants organization and to the fans for letting them down.” Whether his words and regret are genuine or not, at the very least, Melky didn’t make excuses or try to hide behind lawyers, his union, or an appeals process. For that at least, I give him credit.

Follow the writer on Twitter @NateKreichman.

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Jeff Passan’s 25 things you didn’t know about baseball

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Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports recently discovered FanGraphs, a great baseball website which uses complicated algorithms to determine attributes about players. Passan compiled 25 intriguing stats that the common fan would never realize unless they went to this site.

1) The best fastball in baseball is 88.4 mph.

And it belongs to Jarrod Washburn. He also throws a slider, cutter, curveball and changeup, but his average-velocity fastball is the dagger of the bunch. At 22.4 runs above average this year, it has been more effective than the fastest (Ubaldo Jimenez) and the slowest (Jamie Moyer). The most amazing part: Washburn’s fastball was actually 8.3 runs below average last year.

6) The best pitch in baseball is a changeup, and you’ll never guess who throws it.

Tim Lincecum came up heralded for his blazing fastball and hammer curveball, and neither is close to his best pitch. Lincecum’s changeup has been 27.5 runs above average this year, the highest total for any pitch and almost double the second-best change, Brian Tallet’s 14-runs-above special. It’s not like Lincecum piles up the runs above average by throwing the changeup egregiously. His 5.62 runs above per 100 changeups thrown is also the best for that pitch.

15) One person has three pitches that are among the five best in runs above average.

More evidence that Dan Haren is the business: He’s got the best splitter in baseball (7.2 runs above average), the fourth-best cutter (13.7 above average) and the fifth-best fastball (19.3 above average).

25) Six players in baseball do not have a weakness on a specific pitch.

As you know, Pujols isn’t one of them. Joe Mauer is an easy guess, and it would be correct. Same with Cabrera, who has the privilege of being the only player above average in all six categories – knuckleball included. Torii Hunter(notes) just makes it, one-one hundredth a run in the black on curveballs, and his center field peer Adam Jones(notes) joins him. The two National League representatives come from the Central Division. Cincinnati first baseman Joey Votto(notes) is a monster. The other is not. He hits .292. He slugs .386. He is the epitome of utility. The final player without a weakness: Skip Schumaker(notes).

If I’m a professional baseball player, I’m checking this site everyday, as it reports useable statistics scouts are even missing. The people they have contributing to the site are all very serious and spend days mapping out an athlete’s progression or regression in various areas. Be sure to check out Passan’s entire list as well as the FanGraphs page.

And what about that Dan Haren? These stats show that he has the stuff of a Cy Young-worthy pitcher. It should either be he or Lincecum who ends up with the award in the NL. While the Diamonbacks have no chance of making the playoffs, at least Haren can accomplish this feat on his own. As for Lincecum, his team is looking better by the day.

American League All-Star voting–who is leading and who should be

It’s always funny how the voting for the Major League Baseball All-Star game shakes out, and it’s generally more of a popularity contest than anything. That, or the more familiar names like Derek Jeter, David Wright and Manny Ramirez always generate lots of attention. Well, since we’re about 75 games in, and the mid-summer classic is two and a half weeks away, I decided to look at the current vote leaders and make my own picks of who I think should be in there. First the American League — and next week, the National. Here we go….

First base
Leader: Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
Mike’s pick: Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins. It’s kind of hard to argue with Teixeira’s numbers, short porch in right or not. He’s got 20 homers, 57 RBI, 20 doubles, and a .280 average (and in the field, zero errors). You can make a case for Carlos Pena (22 homers), but he’s batting .236. Morneau is batting .315, and has 16 homers (let’s say he’d have 20 if he played in Yankee Stadium), and more RBI than Teixeira (58). And he’s only made one error.

Second base
Leader: Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
Mike’s pick: Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays. I love a good comeback story, and this is it. Hill doesn’t have as many homers as Kinsler (17 to Kinsler’s 18), but he is hitting for a higher average (.306 to .268) with more RBI (52 to 49). Sure, Kinsler has 16 steals to 2 for Hill, but I’m sticking with my comeback story.

Shortstop
Leader: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
Mike’s pick: Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay Rays. Jeter’s having a good season, but Bartlett is leading the American League in batting with a sick .363 average. Even after spending some time on the DL, Bartlett still has 7 homers, 35 RBI, 13 doubles, 3 triples and 15 steals…..pretty awesome numbers for a shortstop.

Third base
Leader: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
Mike’s pick: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays. With a nod to Chone Figgins and his .325 average with 23 stolen bases, Longoria has delivered at a power position with 16 home runs, 62 RBI, 24 doubles and a .312 batting average.

Catcher:
Leader: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
Mike’s pick: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins. Hey, these voters aren’t doing a bad job after all! This is an easy one, though. Mauer is batting almost .400 (.396) with 14 homers and 43 RBI, and a staggering .695 slugging percentage that leads the American League.

Outfield
Leaders: Jason Bay, Boston Red Sox
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers

Mike’s picks: Jason Bay, Boston Red Sox—It’s hard to argue with 19 homers, 69 driven in (leads the AL) and a respectable .278 average, especially when Big Papi has struggled. Manny who?
Torii Hunter, Los Angeles Angels—He’s currently fourth in the voting, but he should be higher. 17 dingers, 56 RBI, and he’s batting .309 with 12 stolen bases.
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays—The Rays are running on everyone, and this guy leads them and the world with 38 stolen bases. He’s also batting .314 with 6 homers and 35 RBI.

Starting pitcher
As you all know, pitchers are chosen by the managers and announced shortly before the all-star break.
Mike’s pick: Zach Greinke, Kansas City Royals. The guy got off to a blistering start, when the Royals stunned everyone by spending more than a few days in first place. He’s cooled off, but Greinke is still 9-3 on a team that’s 31-41, he has a stellar 1.90 ERA, and he’s second in the AL with 111 strikeouts to just 18 walks in 109 innings.

Relief pitcher
Mike’s pick: Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox. Okay, so he’s not leading the league in saves (he has 17 and the Angels’ Brian Fuentes has 20). But Papelbon sports a 1.97 ERA and 33 K’s in 32 innings. And he just has that sick “you can’t hit me” demeanor.

Source: Baseball Reference

2009 MLB Preview: #5 Los Angeles Angels

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Offseason Movement: The Halos added outfielder Bobby Abreu for cheap and also signed former Colorado reliever Brian Fuentes to replace long-time closer Francisco Rodriguez. Along with K-Rod, the club also lost Garret Anderson, Jon Garland and Mark Teixeria via free agency.

Top Prospect: Nick Adenhart, RHP
Some feel as though Jordan Walden is the Halos’ best prospect, but Adenhart is the one that will have the opportunity to make the big league roster this year as a fourth or fifth starter. With Ervin Santana, Kelvim Escobar and John Lackey all sidelined due to various injuries, Adenhart will likely start the season in the starting rotation. He could be sent down as soon as the rest of the starters get healthy, but if he does well he’ll no doubt earn a future spot in the rotation. Thus far in spring training, Adenhart has displayed good command and struggled just once in five outings.

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