Tag: Charlie Villanueva (Page 2 of 3)

NBA Free Agency Rumors: Kidd, Turk, Gordon and much more

Pistons not willing to pony up for Boozer?

The Pistons would love to sign Carlos Boozer should he decide today to opt out of the final year of his contract with the Jazz and become a free agent.

However, if Boozer opts out, he would leave $12.6 million on the table in Utah. Thus, there is a good chance Boozer, as has been widely speculated, would look to start his next contract at $14 million or $15 million.

If that is the case, the Pistons most likely would walk away.

Just because a guy asks for a contract starting at $14-$15 million doesn’t mean that the Pistons have to give it to him. If Boozer opts out, the Pistons are his most likely landing spot, so they set the market, not him. If he wants an unreasonable deal, they shouldn’t walk away, they should make an offer and give him some time to find a better one. Chances are that he won’t, and he’ll end up taking Detroit’s deal.

Assuming Boozer does not dramatically reduce his asking price, the Pistons would go after Bucks forward Charlie Villanueva.

Villanueva will turn 25 in August and is coming off his best season. He averaged 16.2 points and 6.7 rebounds for the Bucks.

The Pistons could conceivably sign Gordon and Villanueva and still have money left over to pursue re-signing Antonio McDyess.

I estimate Gordon’s value to be about $9 million, though he has turned down bigger offers from the Bulls in the past. Villanueva will probably get lots of MLE offers, so the Pistons would likely have to trump those to convince him to play in Detroit instead of Cleveland (or for another contender). So if Detroit signs both, expect them to pay at least $15.5-$16.0 million combined. That doesn’t leave a lot of space for McDyess.

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Bucks let Charlie Villanueva go

Unless the guy is a major disappointment, a team will usually extend the qualifying offer required to make a player a restricted free agent. In the last year of their rookie contract, players are generally still affordable, so average to decent players usually end up as RFAs for a year before hitting unrestricted free agency the following summer.

I told you all of that to tell you this — the Bucks elected not to make the qualifying offer of $4.6 million to perimeter-oriented power forward Charlie Villanueva, who averaged 16.2 points and 6.7 rebounds last season. In 47 games as a starter, he averaged 17.7 points and 7.3 rebounds. He can now sign with any team he likes and the Bucks will receive no compensation. I expect that he’ll garner at least a mid-level deal on the open market. His defense is definitely suspect, but he’s young (24) and can really put the ball in the hole.

I sure hope that general manager John Hammond explored all of his options before making this decision. It seems like Villanueva holds enough value to pry a first round pick or a prospect away from a contender (how about a J.J. Hickson-for-Villanueva swap with Cleveland?), but this decision, coupled with the Richard Jefferson giveaway last week indicate that the Bucks are in serious cost cutting mode.

The good news is that, with the move, Milwaukee should be better able to match offers for Ramon Sessions, who is a TSR fave.

2009 NBA Free Agency Preview: The top restricted free agents

Yesterday, I ranked the top unrestricted free agents of 2009, but now it’s time to look at this summer’s crop of restricted free agents (RFA). Teams can sign an RFA to an offer sheet, then his team has seven days to match that offer to retain him. If the player doesn’t sign an offer sheet and can’t come to terms on a new contract with his current team, then he will play for a year for the qualifying offer and then become an unrestricted free agent the following summer.

For each player, I’ll provide his position, age, Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and an estimate of what kind of contract he’s likely to sign. They’re ranked in order of total value, which is based on overall talent, age, injury history and cost.

1. Paul Millsap, PF (24)
PER: 18.71
In his third year, this former second round pick had the best season of his career. He averaged 13.5 points and 8.6 rebounds, while shooting better than 53% from the field. While Carlos Boozer was out in December and January, the Jazz got a preview of what this kid can do when he gets starter’s minutes. He was a 17/11 guy during those two months, but the Jazz only went 11-13 in games in which Millsap played during that span. His camp expects a deal similar to the one David Lee is asking for, so something in the $10 million per season range. Is he worth it? Probably. And from the sound of it, the Jazz plan on offering him a deal that will keep him from testing the market. If he does explore his options, it may pay off as the Thunder and Pistons are rumored to have interest.
Value: $9.5 – $10.5 million per year

2. David Lee, PF (26)
PER: 19.07
GM Donnie Walsh said that the Knicks’ picking Jordan Hill in this year’s draft has nothing to do with Lee, but the two play the same position, so of course it’s going to have an effect on how the Knicks and Lee each view their relationship. The other issue is that two of the Knicks’ targets in 2010 are Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire might also play the same position as Lee, though Mike D’Antoni would likely play either at center, allowing Lee to play power forward. He gets most of his points off the glass, so he’d be a good fit with either of those guys. The Knicks are projected to have about $35 million in cap space heading into the summer of 2010 and whatever deal they sign Lee to will cut into that. If they want to keep Lee and sign two big-name free agents, then they’re going to have to rid themselves of either Jared Jeffries or Eddy Curry prior to 2010. I like Lee, but he’s not a guy that you can give the ball to on the block and expect him to score, and that limits his value somewhat as a big man. The Thunder, Kings, Grizzlies, Raptors and Pistons could all make a serious run at Lee, though anytime a team tries to poach a restricted free agent, it’s a delicate balance between offering him enough to convince the other team to let him go, while getting a reasonable deal at the same time.
Value: $9.0 – $10.0 million per year.

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Richard Jefferson to the Spurs?

Chad Ford is reporting that the Bucks and Spurs have agreed to a swap that would include star swingman Richard Jefferson.

The Milwaukee Bucks agreed to trade Richard Jefferson to the San Antonio Spurs for Bruce Bowen, Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto a Bucks source told ESPN.com.

The two teams have agreed to the deal in principle. A trade call to make the deal official is coming later Tuesday.

The move gives the Spurs a dynamic wing scorer to play alongside Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. The Spurs had promised to make their team better this summer and adding Jefferson for role players should give them a huge shot in the arm.

The Bucks incentive to make the trade is largely financial. Bowen, Oberto and Thomas are all in the last year of their contracts. The deal will clear $15 million off the books for the Bucks next season and give Milwaukee more flexibility for next year. It also saves them roughly $3 million this year. That may give the Bucks the wiggle room to sign one of their restricted free agents — either Charlie Villanueva or Ramon Sessions — next year.

Largely financial? How about purely financial, Chad?

For the Bucks, this is a straight salary dump. Jefferson has two years and $29 million remaining on his deal, and the Bucks are dangerously close to the luxury tax threshold. They have two pretty good free agents in Villanueva and Sessions that need to be addressed. It looks like they’ll have an extra $3 million this season to sign one or both to long-term deals.

The funny thing is that I just saw an interview with Bucks GM John Hammond where he said that the franchise wasn’t in a position where they had to dump salary just to dump salary. Yeah, right. Talent-wise, the Bucks just lost a big piece in this trade, but if they’re able to retain Sessions and Villanueva, they might be able to recover some of that talent. The move may be a sign that the team is ready to give Villanueva starter’s minutes at one of the forward spots while playing defensive specialist Luc Richard Mbah a Moute at the other forward position.

For the Spurs, if this trade does indeed go down, it will go a long way to getting the franchise back into serious contention in the West. Jefferson is an energetic defender who can hit the three and score on the break. He is just a good all-around player. The Spurs know that their championship window is closing, and if the do acquire Jefferson, they will prove they are willing to pony up to put a championship-caliber supporting cast around Tim Duncan.

Which NBA teams will have cap space this summer?

The NBA free agency period starts July 1st, and as that date approaches I’ll preview this year’s free agent class in more detail. But for now, I’d like to take a look at which teams have the cap flexibility to be major players in free agency this summer. (Mind you, just because a team has cap space, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll use it. Just sayin’.)

Not familiar with the NBA salary cap? Here’s a quick primer…

1. The cap for the 2008-09 season was $58.7 million. The general consensus is that the cap will stay flat or decrease slightly. We’ll assume it sticks at $58.7 million.

2. If a team is over the cap, the only free agents they can sign are their own, unless they elect to sign a player to the mid-level exception (~$5.8 million per season), the bi-annual exception (~$2.0) or to a minimum contract. (The bi-annual exception may not be used in two consecutive years.)

3. If a team is under the cap, they can sign any free agent they want as long as they do not exceed the cap. They can also take on salary via trade up to the cap, so a team like the Grizzlies (with almost $20 million in cap space) could conceivably trade their first round pick to the Suns for Amare Stoudemire or to the Raptors for Chris Bosh.

Here’s a list of the bigger names in the free agent pool this summer:

Unrestricted: Carlos Boozer, Ben Gordon, Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, Andre Miller, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, Hedo Turkoglu, Allen Iverson, Mehmet Okur, Rasheed Wallace, Mike Bibby, Anderson Varejao, Grant Hill, Kyle Korver, Trevor Ariza, Brandon Bass, Chris Andersen, Zaza Pachulia, Chris Wilcox and Drew Gooden

Restricted: David Lee, Paul Millsap, Ray Felton, Josh Childress*, Marvin Williams, Glen Davis, Ramon Sessions, Charlie Villanueva, Nate Robinson, Leon Powe, Hakim Warrick, Linas Kleiza, Jarrett Jack and Shannon Brown

* It appears that if Childress does return to the NBA, the Hawks still hold his rights, so he would be a restricted free agent.

There are eight teams that project to have more than $5.8 million (the value of the mid-level exception) in cap space this summer:

Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Cap Space: $19.7 million
Memphis has been reluctant to spend for several years now and is probably one of the franchises that’s struggling the most in the current economy. I lived in Memphis for three years, and given its small size and overall lack of wealth, I always thought that it would struggle to support a professional sports team. With a core of Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies have to feel pretty good about what they have at off guard, small forward and center. The big decision this summer is what to do with restricted free agent Hakim Warrick. When dealing with bad teams, numbers can be deceptive, because no matter what, somebody has to score and rebound, right? Warrick’s PER (16.91) is #24 amongst power forwards, so ideally he’d be coming off the bench for a playoff team. The Grizzlies projected cap space assumes they make the qualifying offer to Warrick ($3.0 million). Memphis is one of those teams that could really use the services of a Carlos Boozer, David Lee or Paul Millsap, but in this economy, are the Grizzlies willing to make that kind of a commitment? They could try to make a run at Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire next summer, but the odds are long that either guy would want to play for the Grizzlies.

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