Category: NFL Draft (Page 74 of 102)

An early look at the running back class for the ’09 NFL Draft

LeSean “Shady” McCoy has decided to forego his final two years of eligibility at the University of Pittsburgh and enter April’s NFL draft.

So how does McCoy stack up against the likes of Knowshon Moreno (Georgia), Chris “Beanie” Wells (Ohio State), Donald Brown (Connecticut), P.J. Hill (Wisconsin) and Shonn Greene (Iowa)? Let’s take a look.

Even though he had a major setback earlier in the year when he injured his foot/toe in the Buckeyes’ first game of season, Beanie Wells has all of the intangibles NFL teams look for in a back. He’s big (6’1” 237 pounds), fast (he should run in the 4.5-range for the forty at the combine) and might even grade out better than Darren McFadden, who was selected No. 4 overall a year ago. He has had some durability issues, but after watching him over the course of the second half of the season, it didn’t look like he was suffering any lingering effects from the injury. Ohio State head coach Jim Tressel believes that Beanie is a top-5 pick and when you look at the entire package, it’s hard to disagree.

Knowshon Moreno will probably go somewhere in the first round, but it’s hard to speculate at this point whether or not he’ll go in the top 15 or fall in the 20-25 range. He doesn’t have a ton of experience (he only played two seasons at UGA), but that also means he has fresh legs and he was incredible the two years he played at Georgia. He is being compared to Thomas Jones and Cadillac Williams in that he’s a grinder who doesn’t necessarily have great top-end speed, but makes up for it with outstanding instincts and vision. If he falls past the top 15 picks, he’s going to be a steal for whichever team grabs him.

At 5’11, 210 pounds, Shady McCoy isn’t the biggest back in the draft, but his change-of-direction skills are unrivaled. After what the Texans’ Steve Slaton (a similar back with great speed) was able to accomplish in his rookie season, as well as the growing popularity of the “Wildcat” formation in the NFL, a lot of teams are going to value McCoy’s versatility and athleticism. His ability to make people miss will certainly separate him come draft time and he should run a forty in the 4.4-range at the combine.

Shonn Greene is perhaps the most intriguing back in this draft because his stock couldn’t be higher after rushing for 1,850 yards and 20 touchdowns for the streaking Hawkeyes. He also won the Doak Walker Award, which is given to the nation’s top running back and given his powerful running style, he might be a sleeper pick in the top three rounds. He’s overshadowed by Wells, Moreno and McCoy, but his skill set is outstanding.

Donald Brown rushed for 2,083 yards at Connecticut this season and will likely draw comparisons to Kevin Smith of the Lions come April. Like Smith, Brown racked up a ton of yardage at the collegiate level, but doesn’t have elite speed or athleticism. Instead he excels because of his vision and creativity and unlike Smith (who played at Central Florida), Brown faced some decent defenses in the Big East so the “weak competition” knock shouldn’t be applied come draft day.

P.J. Hill will be a late round pick given his durability issues at Wisconsin and the fact that he’s not much of a pass-catcher. He’s a bowling ball of a runner, but won’t draw much consideration in the top three rounds.

Is it better to draft a wide receiver from a small school?

It seems like an inordinate number of small-school wideouts star in the NFL. This isn’t a new trend — six of the top 10 players who lead in all-time receiving yards are from non-BCS schools: Jerry Rice (Mississippi Valley State), Isaac Bruce (Memphis), Terrell Owens (Tennessee-Chattanooga), Henry Ellard (Fresno State), Randy Moss (Marshall) and Andre Reed (Kutztown Pennsylvania). Here’s a list of the top 30 fantasy receivers of 2008, the school they went to, and the round they were drafted by their NFL team. (I used point-per-reception fantasy stats because they give a nice overall view of a player’s total production — catches, yards and TDs.)

Andre Johnson (Miami) 1
Larry Fitzgerald (Pittsburgh) 1
Anquan Boldin (Florida State) 2
Brandon Marshall (Central Florida) 4
Roddy White (UAB) 1
Calvin Johnson (Georgia Tech) 1
Greg Jennings (Western Michigan) 2
Wes Welker (Texas Tech) U
Antonio Bryant (Pittsburgh) 2
Steve Smith (Utah) 3
Randy Moss (Marshall) 1
Reggie Wayne (Miami) 1
Terrell Owens (Tennessee-Chattanooga) 3
Santana Moss (Miami) 1
Hines Ward (Georgia) 3
Eddie Royal (Virginia Tech) 2
Dwayne Bowe (LSU) 1
Vincent Jackson (Northern Colorado) 2
T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Oregon State) 7
Derrick Mason (Michigan State) 4
Lance Moore (Toledo) U
Kevin Walter (Eastern Michigan) 7
Donald Driver (Alcorn State) 7
Isaac Bruce (Memphis) 2
Jerricho Cotchery (North Carolina State) 4
DeSean Jackson (California) 2
Laveranues Coles (Florida State) 3
Bernard Berrian (Fresno State) 3
Steve Breaston (Michigan) 5
Lee Evans (Wisconsin) 1

Notes:
– Eighteen players were from the so-called “power conferences” (BCS schools), while 12 were from non-BCS schools.
– There were nine 1st rounders, seven 2nd rounders, five 3rd rounders, three 4th rounders, one 5th rounder, zero 6th rounders, three 7th rounders and two undrafted players.
– Two players that most people would agree are amongst the top 30 WRs in the league — Marques Colston (Hofstra, 7th round) and Plaxico Burress (Michigan State, 1st round) — each missed half the season with injury.

So 40% of the top 30 fantasy wideouts are from non-BCS schools. Does this seem about right, or is it proportionately high when compared to other positions? If it’s the latter, is there something about the position that lends itself to players from small schools succeeding in the NFL?

Matt Millen’s explanation not nearly good enough

If you tuned into the NBC pregame show on Saturday, you would have seen a Matt Millen interview. Yes, the Matt Millen who steered the Detroit Lions to a 31-84 record — 31-97 if you count the losses after his dismissal. Dan Patrick asked him a few questions and he took the blame for the team’s performance. He didn’t go into much detail or offer any specifics, so it was kind of a waste of time. He simply looked like a guy who was trying to rehab his image. He knows that a job as an executive in the NFL is probably out of the question, but he could return as an analyst, which is kind of a joke in itself, considering that a big part of a GM’s job is analyzing players and coaches. Really, why should we listen to anything this guy has to say?

Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press had a few pointed comments about Millen’s appearance…

But when he broke his public silence Saturday during the network’s “Football Night in America” show, he told NBC’s Dan Patrick that it wasn’t as easy as merely blaming himself.

“There’s a lot more to it than that,” Millen told Patrick. “I could give you excuses. I could give you reasons. To me, that’s just an excuse after the fact. You take the hit and move on.”

Millen blew it again. Detroit deserves a detailed explanation for what went so horribly wrong from those who perpetrated the deed. Simply saying that you’re responsible for the disaster doesn’t make you accountable. That requires serving a penance. If Millen truly seeks atonement, he must delve deeper into those additional “reasons” of which he spoke.

Was there a lack of uniformity between Millen and his front office, Millen and his coaches? Was there an even greater lack of organizational confidence within the locker room than what already has been documented? Did ownership interfere even more than what already has been reported?

I’m really tired of the Lions’ “There’s nothing more to say” defense regarding past failures.

I have an idea — Millen should write a book. Imagine this: an insider’s account of the worst franchise in the NFL. He could go into detail about every bad (and good) decision that he made, along with the conflicts he had with players, coaches and ownership. I, for one, find the whole GM game fascinating and would love to read a tell-all about the Lions. It would be a moneymaker for Millen (not that he really needs the dough) and would be cathartic for Lions fans everywhere.

But to promote a book, he’d eventually have to appear in front of (real) members of the media. Patrick probably had his hands tied (and for that, NBC is to blame), but Sharp is right — Millen went into zero detail about what went wrong.

One of Sharp’s lines really stands out…

Simply saying that you’re responsible for the disaster doesn’t make you accountable.

Truer words have never been spoken. The fans in Detroit deserve an explanation — a real one.

Here’s the interview…

Top 10 Erroneous Columns of 2008

In one of the coolest features I’ve seen compiled in a long time, RealClearSports.com put together a list of the top 10 erroneous columns of 2008.

Patriots-Giants Super Bowl XLII1. Pats Can’t Lose

“Crown them Now. Pats Can’t Lose” – Jay Mariotti, Chicago Sun-Times

“…[I]f you’re expecting a Super Bowl…please be aware that the New England Patriots already have won their fourth Vince Lombardi trophy in seven years. They clinched it Sunday, while sitting around their TV sets, watching the only team that possibly could have beaten them, the Indianapolis Colts, lose at home to the San Diego Chargers … Beyond a mass kidnapping, nothing will stop the Patriots from their destiny. They’ve overcome close calls with great escapes, and now, just two wins short of the greatest season in American team sports since the Bulls’ 72-10 title year, no opponent in this solar system will beat them … Crown them. We know exactly who the Patriots are: the perfect football team.”

Sorry, Jay. Take solace in the fact that you were one of millions who was very, very wrong. Unfortunately, your words got printed.

I love when Jay Mariotti is called out. I don’t know, it just makes me feel all warm inside.

Some of the other erroneous columns discussed:

“Mets Won’t Collapse Again” – Mike Vaccaro, New York Post
“Rays Won’t Make Playoffs” – Mike Vaccaro, New York Post
“Picking Ryan ‘Highly Debatable'” – Terence Moore, Atlanta Journal-Constitution
“Lakers Will Win Title” – Michael Ventre, NBC Sports
“McNabb’s Reign Likely is Over” – Ashley Fox, Philadelphia Inquirer

Correcting ESPN The Mag, Part 1

Regular readers might be familiar with my occasional posts — “Correcting Bill Simmons” and “Correcting Rick Reilly” — where I try to help out my better-paid, less-informed counterparts by pointing out when/where they’re wrong. This time, I’m going to tackle the December 29th, 2008 issue of ESPN The Mag as a whole. I know I’m going to hear some guy at the sports bar regurgitate this “analysis” as his own opinion and I won’t have the wherewithal or the energy to call him on it, so I might as well do it here.

Let’s start with everyone’s favorite blowhard — and I doubt he’d take that as an insult given his commentary stylings — Stephen A. Smith. In his “Up Front” column, he criticizes Oscar De La Hoya for not knowing when to give it up.

Help, someone! Pretty Please!

It would be really nice if someone could muster some plausible explanation as to why a fighter like Oscar De La Hoya, beyond his prime for quite a while before the Manny Pacquiao bout, still chose to step into the ring and get his brains beat out. The mismatch was so obvious that Oscar’s wife, Millie, was screaming for him to quit before he had the common sense to do it himself.

It’s really easy to knock De La Hoya after the match is over when it’s clear that he shouldn’t have fought the fight. But one quick look at the pre-fight odds (-165 Hoya / +135 Pacquiao) reveals that this fight fooled a LOT of people, not just the Golden Boy. According to the betting public, De La Hoya was the clear favorite in the fight, so why would Oscar think that he was about to step into a beatdown? The betting public clearly doesn’t know everything, but it’s a pretty good gauge of public opinion and if the public is fooled, why would De La Hoya — who has an ego of a big-time fighter — know any better?

If Smith writes this column before the fight, I’d give him props. But this is classic kick-’em-while-they’re-down writing.

Let’s move on to Mike & Mike (Golic & Greenberg) who answer “The Big Question” — if the best players in college sports don’t make any noise in the pros, what’s their legacy?

GOLIC: If you think about it, we have two players this year who could end their college days as two of the all-time greats in their sports: Tyler Hansbrough and Tim Tebow. But neither one of them appears to have the type of skills that would make them excel as pros.
GREENY: It’s probably the best illustration we’ll ever see of the difference in athleticism from one level to the next. In college, guys can still dominate even if they’re not athletically superior to the competition. I don’t care how hard you work; if you’re not freakishly gifted physically, you are not going to be a star in the NFL or NBA.

I don’t have any idea if Tim Tebow can make it as a QB in the NFL, so I’ll let Anthony Stalter field that question. As for Tyler Hansbrough, I think he’s going to be a productive power forward at the NBA level. Whether or not he’s going to be a “star” depends on your definition of the word.

Is he going to turn into another Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire? Probably not. But if a team can land a starter in the late lottery, that’s considered a success. I see Hansbrough as a player who will focus on defense and rebounding. In fact, he could be a Dennis Rodman-type who can hit a 15-foot jumper. The Worm had the innate ability to rebound, and while Hansbrough doesn’t quite have his nose for the ball, he does have the work ethic, and then some. If he plays 30 minutes a game, I see him averaging 10 rebounds at a minimum. He has really improved his face up game, so if defenders help off of him, he’ll be able to make them pay. He should be especially productive in the regular season — while his opponents are loafing through three-quarters of the game, he and his non-stop motor will be running around like a kid on a sugar high. Work ethic is something that is often overlooked when it comes to the NBA draft and I think Hansbrough is a guy that has the drive to make himself the best player he can be. Other guys might have higher ceilings, but it doesn’t matter if they don’t have the heart to reach them.

Mike & Mike also discussed the upside/downside of a college football playoff…

Golic: As the bowl season ramps up, I cannot stress enough the need for a college football playoff. March Madness is the best tourney of the year, and a deep run by a Cinderella is one of the best parts of it. In the BCS, teams like Boise State and Utah will never play in the championship game.

Greeny: Cinderellas are all well and good, but they should know their place. The regular season is the one thing college football still gets right. A Cinderella team winning it all in a playoff would put that at risk.

Was the editor drunk on egg nog when he reviewed this? Golic’s point is clear, but what is Greeny talking about? Forget about the fact that he seems to be defending the current system — his response is nonsensical. First, he says that Cinderellas “should know their place.” Huh? An undefeated team like Utah or Boise St. should just shrug their shoulders and admit that they don’t belong because they only beat one ranked team all year? Who’s to say that they don’t have the talent and execution to play with the big boys? What’s worse, Greeny just contradicted his point from the previous topic — that, at the college level, a player can still dominate without being athletically superior to the competition.

He goes on to claim that a Cinderella winning it all in a playoff would put college football’s regular season at risk. I don’t have any idea what this means, so I’m not even going to try to speculate. I will say this — whoever wins a playoff deserves to be the champ, and I don’t see how a team like Utah winning three playoff games against the best competition in the country can hurt college football’s regular season.

Lastly — and this is a relatively minor point but it hits close to home because I am (admittedly) a fan of the Milwaukee Bucks — in the “NBA Insider” section, under the article heading “Contract Killers,” Chris Broussard lists a number of guys that are not living up to the contracts they signed this offseason, beginning with Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand. He goes on to say this…

Chicago locked up Luol Deng for $71 million; he’s scoring 13.9 ppg, Baron Davis got $65M from the Clips; he’s shooting 39%. Andrew Bogut ($60M) and Emeka Okafor ($72M) are checking in below their career scoring averages.

Granted, Luol Deng’s FG% is down (48% last year to 44% this year), Baron Davis is not shooting well (actually 37% now, but he’s a career 41% shooter so no big surprise there) and Okafor’s scoring numbers are down (though his FG% is up 5.5% and his PER is the second highest of his career). But why does Broussard have to bag on Bogut?

Sure, he’s averaging 11.5 ppg, down from 14.3 last season. But, in case Broussard hadn’t noticed, the Bucks added Richard Jefferson (and his 14.4 shots per game), so it’s no surprise to see that Bogut’s attempts are down almost three shots a game. His rebounds (10.7) and FG% (55.3%) are at career-high levels even though he missed three games with a knee injury in late November. And it’s no coincidence that the Bucks lost those three games.

Considering that his deal ($12 million per year) was the most affordable on that list of bad contracts, the guy doesn’t deserve to be listed amongst the other “contract killers.”

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