Category: Fantasy Football (Page 120 of 324)

Surprises and Busts: Trying to predict the unpredictable in fantasy football

Most fantasy owners draft a running back in the first round and oftentimes their season depends on how that player fares. If he misses a few games with an injury and is bothered by it for a few more, his production will suffer and it will put his fantasy team in a tough spot. This can be offset if his owner is savvy enough to draft one of the “surprise” backs that inevitably crash the top 10 every season.

But how does one pluck one of these backs out of the middle rounds? Better yet, how can we avoid drafting an early round bust in the first place?

As a forewarning, this is not a tight article. I ponder, deliberate and meander as I go along. Trying to predict the future is nebulous at best and futile at worst, so please bear with me as I muddle my way through this topic.

Here’s a list of the top RBs from 2008…

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Correcting ESPN The Mag, Part 2

On page 75 of ESPN The Magazine’s fantasy football preview, Ken Daube argues that owners drafting late in the first round should take WRs with their first two picks. Generally, I agree with the theory, but a few of the assumptions that Daube made appear to be incorrect. Here’s what I wrote on his fan wall at ESPN

Hi Ken, I was reading “The Turn Is No Place For Running Backs,” and while I agree in principle with the strategy of going WR/WR with your first two picks at the first turn, I have a couple of questions.

1) In the second table, you show team #2 getting a 1-5 WR in the third round while team #4 gets a 6-10 WR. In round four, teams #1 and #3 get a 11-15 RB, while team #2 gets a 16-20 RB. Why the inconsistency?

2) Team #1 and #3 get an 11-15 RB at the start of the fourth round, but from ESPN’s live draft results, only guys in the 18+ range are available there.

3) Team #2 gets a 1-5 WR at the end of the third, and team #4 gets a 6-10 player, when only 12+ WRs are available there.

When I recalculate the totals to account for these problems, team #1 finishes with 1050 points, team #2 with 1011 points, team #3 with 1039 points and team #4 with 976 points. The theory still stands, but the execution is confusing.

I’m assuming that this is a 12-team league, which appears to be Daube’s assumption since he mentions pick #12 in the opening paragraph.

Does anyone else have this issue handy? If so, are you seeing the same things I’m seeing?

I’ll update this post if Daube responds.

AskMen.com’s 2009 Great Male Survey

Ah, the modern man – just who and what is he? If he were rich, would he prefer a sports car or SUV? What is his favorite sporting event of the year? Does he fantasize about his girlfriend’s friend? (Yes please!)

AskMen.com put together a cool feature that delves into figuring out who the modern man is by polling over 50,000 of its readers with questions like the ones above.

The 2009 Great Male Survey rolls out over the next four weeks and discusses a series of poll questions ranging from sports, cars and entertainment to dating and lifestyle. To check out The 2009 Great Male Survey, click the link provided.

Here’s one of the sports questions that was asked (along with the results):

Q. Who is the hottest female associated with sports?
32% – Erin Andrews
28% – Maria Sharapova
17% – Danica Patrick
13% – Ana Ivanovic
10% – Natalie Gulbis

Some of the other sports questions include: What is your favorite sporting event of the year? Does gambling factor into your love of the NFL? Does fantasy football factor into your love for the NFL? Who is your top pick for your 2009-2010 NFL fantasy football team?

The results to the questions are pretty interesting and entertaining so be sure to check them out, along with the poll results for the questions in the other topics.

Top 10 active NFL field goal percentage leaders

It’s almost fantasy football time, and many of you, like me, have already been doing your research. So let’s take a look at a category that you may not pay much attention to, and many experts will tell you not to anyway. That’s field goal percentage. I realize choosing a kicker is like throwing spaghetti against the wall to see what sticks, but good references are to pick those on good offensive teams, or those that can’t score TDs and create more field goal attempts. But it’s also good to pick an accurate kicker, whether that kicker plays in a dome or not. I mean, why take your chances on someone who kicks 25 field goals but misses another 25? So here is a list of the active Top 10 in field goal percentage. You can thank me later.

1. Nick Folk, Dallas Cowboys (86.79%)—For as good as Folk’s rookie season was in 2007, he had less attempts but was even more accurate in 2008, kicking 20 of 22 field goals (90.9%). Which reminds me, what the hell ever happened to Mike Vanderjagt?

2. Nate Kaeding, San Diego Chargers (86.13%)—Sure, he kicks mostly in warm weather, but Kaeding is about as automatic as they come.

3. Robbie Gould, Chicago Bears (85.94%)—If you’re hitting better than 17 out of 20 times when your home field is in the WINDY city, you’re damn good.

4. Shayne Graham, Cincinnati Bengals (85.64%)—One of the lone bright spots on a team that is perpetually going nowhere.

5. Stephen Gostkowski, New England Patriots (85.56%)—No Adam Vinatieri? No problem. This kid stepped in as a rookie in 2006 and has improved each year, hitting 36 of 40 field goal attempts last season (90%) and leading the NFL in total points (148).

6. Rob Bironas, Tennessee Titans (84.50%)—Bironas is extremely dependable, but nothing topped his 2007 All-Pro campaign, when dude kicked an NFL record 8 field goals against Houston.

7. Matt Stover, free agent (83.70%)—The amazing thing about Stover is that he’s been doing it for so long. He broke in with the Browns in 1991 and moved with the team to Baltimore in 1996, where he played until last season.

8. Phil Dawson, Cleveland Browns (82.81%)—One of the original “expansion” Browns, Dawson, like his counterpart Graham in southern Ohio, has been a bright spot on a bad team for years.

9. Jeff Reed, Pittsburgh Steelers (82.65%)—Every year they seem to talk about how hard it is to kick in Heinz Field, so the fact that Jeff Reed is even on this list says a lot about his ability. I’d love to know what the guy could do playing in Minnesota for a year.

10. John Carney, free agent (82.59%)—Carney stepped in for Lawrence Tynes last season and all he did was hit 35 of 38 field goal attempts, an amazing 92.1% clip. It’s even more amazing because Carney played half his games in windy Giants Stadium, and because he did it at the age of 44.

Source: Pro Football Reference

Middle School Prospects?

http://internal.usn.org/enews/e-news/2008enews/090408/USNfootball.jpg

Norman Chad, the Couch Slouch, over on Sports Illustrated’s website brings to light a rather interesting development in professional scouting:

Just the other day, while grazing the Internet over a glass of Santa Margherita Pinot Grigio 2006, I discovered the following information on the home page of JuniorRank.com:

“At 6-4 and over 230 pounds, Kyle Bosch of St. Charles, Illinois is no ordinary 8th grade tight end. With good hands, good grades and a ‘nasty’ disposition on the field, this JuniorRank.com Preseason Regional ‘Top 20’ candidate is definitely ‘One to Watch.'”

There was even a photo of Kyle lifting weights.

I marked him in my notebook as a top-5 prospect for the 2017 NFL draft.

(Of course, Hoopscooponline.com has been scoping out stellar basketball-playing SIXTH GRADERS for years. It’s tireless work that must be done.)

Facetiousness aside, Mr. Chad asks the very real question of “How young is too young?” While I don’t feel quite so hard lined about athletes skipping college in order to go pro, I think there are some times where people need to butt out of kids playing games. Perhaps we need a moratorium on scouts going south of high school.

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