Tag: NBA Draft (Page 4 of 8)

NBA Draft Do-Over: 2008

How would the 2008 NBA Draft go if owners and GMs knew then what they know now?

Here’s my take…

#1 Chicago: Derrick Rose
The Bulls don’t want a mulligan. They are perfectly happy with their franchise point guard.

#2 Miami: Brook Lopez
Michael Beasley isn’t a bust, no matter what anyone says. But if the Heat had it all to do over again, they’d go with Lopez here, who posted 13.0 points and 8.1 rebounds in about 31 minutes of playing time.

#3 Minnesota: O.J. Mayo
I don’t think the T-Wolves would do anything differently. They’d still draft Mayo and trade with Memphis for Love. Why not?

#4 Seattle/OKC: Russell Westbrook
Likewise, the Thunder have to be happy with what they have in Westbrook, who averaged 20.6 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.9 assists in February.

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NBA Rumors: Rubio, Boozer, T-Mac and more

Chad Ford writes about why Ricky Rubio is being so selective in his workouts.

First of all, the idea that Rubio is the only one doing it is silly. James Harden has only worked out for four teams. Even the Knicks couldn’t get him in. Hasheem Thabeet will likely only work out for three. DeMar DeRozan has been really selective, and so has Stephen Curry.

It’s pretty simple as to why Rubio is being selective: He is going to have to pay a lot of money for the privilege to play in the NBA next season. His buyout will cost him something between $5 and $7 million of his own money. That’s a lot of money, especially when you consider that Rubio wasn’t making a ton of dough in Spain. He essentially will be signing over his paychecks for the next couple of years to his team in Spain.

The Kings have an obvious hole at point guard on a young team. It seems to be the place his camp wants him to land. If the Kings draft him, I don’t think there’s any question that Rubio would pay the buyout and come. The question is, will the Kings draft him? I think the odds are in Rubio’s favor, but it sounds like some in the organization still need to be convinced.

Rubio’s future might depend on something he has no control over — is Russell Westbrook a point guard? A statistical study I did a few weeks ago revealed that he was turnover-prone and shoot-first, though obviously as a young rookie, there is room for improvement. If the Thunder think he’s a point guard, then I doubt they take Rubio. They’ll take James Harden, who averaged 4.2 assists during his senior year even though he was taking 13 shots per game.

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No promise was made to Monta Ellis

On his draft buzz blog [Insider subscription required], Chad Ford dispelled the notion that the Warriors made a promise to Monta Ellis not to draft a point guard at #7. He spoke with GM Larry Riley, who said that the topic never came up. In an interview with KNBR, Ellis confirmed that the meeting was about getting everyone on the same page and said that if the team drafted a point guard, he was going to “do anything to help the team win.” Riley told Ellis that if they do use him at the point, his primary responsibility will be to “get guys more involved” and help his teammates “get off.”

Riley told Ford that he would “like to have a little beef” and said that the Warriors could “use more size and toughness.” Does this mean that they’ll draft Jordan Hill at #7, if available? Probably, but Riley also said that the Warriors didn’t “have a gaping hole at any position” so that they can “draft the best player available.”

Ellis thrived at off guard playing alongside Baron Davis two seasons ago, averaging 20.2 points, 3.9 assists and 4.9 rebounds, and shot an astounding 53% from the field.

John Hollinger’s Draft Rater likes Lawson

Earlier in the day, I wrote about how Chad Ford is hearing that Ty Lawson is shooting up some draft boards, and now John Hollinger’s Draft Rater (where he takes college statistics and a few other metrics to predict a player’s production in the NBA) says that he’s the top player in this draft. Yes, he’s even ahead of Blake Griffin.

Lawson, who is coming off an electric performance in leading North Carolina to the championship, grades out highly for several reasons: Although he’s short for a point guard, his shooting numbers (47.1 percent on 3-pointers), strong assist rate and microscopic turnover ratio (9.1, first among point guard prospects) all point to him as an NBA keeper.

The Draft Rater puts Lawson slightly ahead of Griffin for first, but this doesn’t mean a team should take Lawson first. The standard error in the projections for point guards is higher than it is for big men, which means random noise could be putting Lawson ahead just as easily as on-the-court performance. If the consensus is that Griffin is the better player, I don’t think Lawson’s statistical record alone is strong enough evidence to refute it. Additionally, we’ve heard questions about Lawson’s work ethic and injuries.

But the rating is emphatic enough for me to say Lawson should be at the top of the college point guard ladder, ahead of Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague & Co. (If you’re wondering about Ricky Rubio, I’ll have more on him next week.)

Hollinger’s Draft Rater isn’t error-proof but it’s not a bad second opinion when trying to pick a player out of a group of two or more.

Or when you’re trying to avoid a bust…

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NBA Rumors: Bosh and Wade talk about 2010, David Lee to Portland, and more

Chris Bosh discussed Miami as a possible destination next summer.

“As of right now, I’m not sure. I like Miami, don’t get me wrong. But I don’t know what comes along with being a part of that organization. I don’t even have any friends in Miami, which was the funniest part. A close friend of mine hit me yesterday and was like ‘Hey there’s another article out’ and I was like ‘What now?’ ‘Apparently a friend in Miami said you’re going to Miami.’ He sent me the article and I read it, and I’m like, ‘now they’re just making stuff up.'”

For Heat fans, re-signing Dwyane Wade and signing Bosh would be a dream scenario next summer. The best thing Miami has going for it (other than South Beach, of course) is Wade, so if Bosh signs he better hope that Wade doesn’t pull an Elton Brand and bolt. Speaking of…

Dwyane Wade discussed his hometown of Chicago as a possible destination next summer.

“I’m not ruling out a lot of places, including Chicago, but I’m not really thinking about those places. Like I said, 2010 is the year when I will sit down and open up my options and, hopefully, I’m still blessed and healthy to have those options and then go from there. But Miami is my number one option and I’ve made that clear. That’s where I want to be and, hopefully, we can get everything right here in Miami.”

Wade is just keeping his options open. He has said repeatedly that he’d like to stay in Miami, but he’s keeping the organization’s feet to the fire by insinuating that he still might leave if the franchise is unable to surround him with good players. The Heat are projected to have significant cap space next summer, so they could conceivably sign Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire or even LeBron James.

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