It’s easy to sit here and play armchair Pro Bowl GM, and while indeed all of us have the ability to influence the player selections, that doesn’t mean as a collective group that we get it right. So as always, there were a few players, even after injury substitutions were announced, who are home this weekend instead of playing in the Pro Bowl in Miami—players who truly deserved a spot on the NFC or AFC roster. Here are a few glaring omissions as we see it:

Cedric Benson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals—For as good as the Bengals’ defense was in 2009, they won all those games early in the season in part because their running game was downright dominant. And a big reason for that was Benson, whose 96.2 yards per game was second only to Tennessee’s Chris Johnson. Benson, who just turned 27 in December, has been injury prone most of his young career, but this was by far his best season, and he even led the NFL in rushing for a bit before Johnson caught fire. Of course, Benson’s six touchdowns are probably what kept him out of the Pro Bowl (Maurice Jones-Drew had 15 and Johnson 14), but there is no question about how valuable he was to the Bengals, helping them to exceed all expectations.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers—With all due respect to every other QB in the AFC, how do David Garrard and Vince Young get in ahead of Big Ben? I can sort of understand Young, who took the Titans on his back and may have even warranted MVP consideration. But Garrard? Roethlisberger had 4328 yards, 26 TDs and 12 picks, while Garrard threw for 3597 with 15 TD throws and 10 interceptions. Of course, Ben also dealt with concussions, so I can understand an injury keeping him out, but he’s not listed with the injured players selected, so that means more people than not left him off the roster. Does that make sense to anyone?

Brent Celek, TE, Philadelphia Eagles—This one was purely a numbers game, because you absolutely can’t argue with Jason Witten and Vernon Davis getting in ahead of Celek. But that’s not his fault. Look, I’m a Giants fan so it’s not easy for me to admit this, but I love this kid as a football player. He’s tough, makes big catches with consistency, and is always open for Donovan McNabb in the end zone. He’ll also take a defender’s head off if they get in his path. Of course, Celek’s numbers were stellar too–he caught 76 passes for just under 1000 yards (971) with 8 scores. They should have allowed an extra NFC tight end just this once.

Andre Carter, DE, Washington Redskins—I get why Jared Allen and Trent Cole made the Pro Bowl roster, but I don’t get how Andre Carter missed out while Julius Peppers got in. Peppers has the name recognition, but Carter led all defensive ends in solo tackles (48) and had twenty more total tackles than Peppers (62 to 42). He had 11 sacks to Peppers’ 10.5, sure, but when you look at the whole picture, somebody blew an assignment. And the thing is, everyone talks about Albert Haynesworth, but Carter never gets the credit he deserves, not even on his own team.

James Laurinaitis, LB, St. Louis Rams—I get why Jon Beason is the top dog at ILB for the NFC, and I also get why London Fletcher finally made the roster when Jonathan Vilma’s Saints reached the Super Bowl. I’m just not sure why rookie Laurinaitis didn’t make it in ahead of Vilma. Laurinaitis led all rookies in solo tackles with 107 (Vilma had 87), and in the NFL he trailed only Patrick Willis, Beason and Kirk Morrison in that department. Laurinaitis also had 2 sacks and 2 interceptions. This kid was a beast in the middle on a team that won only 1 game in 2009, and short of having to pay dues, I’m not exactly sure how he was left off the Pro Bowl roster.

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
1:00 pm ET
TV—FOX

Of any player that needed the bye week, you have to believe 40-year-old Brett Favre did the most. He might not say so, because in many ways, the man who had an incredible “comeback” season (4202 yards, 33 TDs, 7 picks) thinks he’s still 18. Dallas, meanwhile, has been on quite a roll ever since they upset the Saints in New Orleans in Week 15. They are playing lights out on both sides of the ball, and Tony Romo (whose boyhood hero growing up in Wisconsin was Favre) along with Jason Witten and Miles Austin are going to give the Vikings’ sixth ranked D all they can handle. On defense, the Cowboys rank ninth overall, and even though they are 20th against the pass, that’s skewed a bit because they terrorized Donovan McNabb for two weeks straight, and virtually shut down Drew Brees’ Saints for three quarters in that upset game. The Vikings will likely turn to all-world RB Adrian Peterson a bit more than usual, to try and soften Dallas’ front seven for Favre to take shots down the field with big receiver Sidney Rice and speedy rookie Percy Harvin. And pass rushing specialist Jared Allen will have fun chasing Romo all day. This one has all the makings of a classic, and it’s even more intriguing because these teams have not played each other since 2007. Upset? Don’t be surprised. THE PICK: COWBOYS 27, VIKINGS 20

New York Jets at San Diego Chargers
4:40 pm ET
TV—CBS

Imagine a tug of war where the other team lets go of the rope halfway through the contest. That’s basically what happened to the Jets when the Colts pulled their starters in Week 16, and a 15-10 Colts’ lead turned into a 29-15 Jets’ upset. Since then, the Jets routed the Bengals 37-0, when Cincinnati also basically rested their players most of the game. But rookie head coach Rex Ryan doesn’t think his team had any advantage or luck or whatever, and he proved it last week when his Jets went into Cincinnati and upset the Bengals at full strength, and on the road, 24-14. That #1 defense of the Jets is no mirage, so Philip Rivers and that fifth ranked passing offense will really have their hands full. They do have LaDainian Tomlinson, but based on the fact the Chargers are ranked 31st in rushing offense, either LT or his supporting cast is not the same. So the Jets will likely try to stop Rivers, along with big receivers Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates first, but they can’t make the mistake of paying no attention to Tomlinson or the speedy change-up back, Darren Sproles. The Jets will try and use their top ranked run game to speed up the game, and with the Chargers ranked 20th against the run, they just might be able to do that a bit. What’s likely here is that the team which makes the most mistakes will lose. And the Jets are due for one of those games. THE PICK: CHARGERS 23, JETS 13

New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals
4:30 pm ET
TV—NBC

Last Sunday night, the Jets closed out the actual regular season history of “old” Giants Stadium the way the Giants wanted to the week before, turning a win-and-in situation into a rout against the Bengals, 37-0. The Jets and their # 1 pass defense held the Bengals to zero passing yards for the game. That’s right, ZERO passing yards. That’s not likely to happen again today, when the Jets visit the Bengals for a rematch that will determine who goes home and who moves on to the divisional round of the playoffs. Bengals’ head coach Marvin Lewis held RB Cedric Benson out of the Week 17 game, and only let QB Carson Palmer play a few series before letting some bearded guy named J.T. O’Sullivan take over. Lewis didn’t want to show too much, but what he may have shown in the process was that his team is fading fast and may have won games early in the season with smoke and mirrors. The Bengals’ defense is also solid, ranked #7 against the rush and #6 against the pass, but if they allow Thomas Jones and the Jets’ running game to control the clock again, this could very well be another dominant performance by the Jets. And don’t forget the way Jets’ all-world CB Darrelle Revis shut down WR Chad Ochocinco on the field and then on Twitter. The hotter Jets should prevail again, but either way, this is a game featuring two of the NFL’s best defenses, so it’s likely to be ultimately determined by who makes the least mistakes.
THE PICK: JETS 17, BENGALS 13

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
8:00 pm ET
TV—NBC

For as surprising as the Jets’ thrashing of the Bengals was last weekend, the fact that the Cowboys shut out the Eagles may have been the biggest surprise of Week 17. Sure, the Cowboys have been on a roll since handing the Saints their first loss of the season a few weeks back, and haven’t given up a point since then. But the Eagles had won six in a row and were (insert cheesy line here like “flying high” or “soaring”). Despite having Brian Westbrook back, the Eagles have fallen to 22nd in the NFL in rushing offense and have been living by the big pass play most of the season, with second year WR DeSean Jackson changing games by himself on offense and special teams. The Cowboys, however, have beaten the Eagles twice this season, and their only losses came to the Giants twice (in games that could have gone either way), Denver, Green Bay and San Diego. They can run the ball (7th overall), pass with Tony Romo, Miles Austin and Jason Witten (6th overall) and they can stop the run (4th overall). The only blemish for the Cowboys is they are prone to big pass plays, but they seem to have remedied that recently, and with DeMarcus Ware coming off the edge, Donovan McNabb has to have eyes on the side and back of his head at all times. This game will certainly be close, and maybe come down to a field goal. And in that case, would you rather have David Akers or (gulp) Shaun Suisham as your kicker? That’s what I thought.
THE PICK: EAGLES 27, COWBOYS 24

Through all of the criticism that Wade Phillips has received while he’s been the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, he’s always been reprieved in one area: His defense.

Even though the Cowboys faded down the stretch last year, they still owned the eighth best defense in the NFL thanks in large part to Phillips. Dallas ranked fifth in passing yards allowed and 12th in rushing yards allowed, which helped Phillips retain his job over the offseason.

But in two games so far this season, Dallas has surrendered 54 points. In their 33-31 loss to the Giants on Sunday night, the Cowboys were routinely beat through the air as Eli Manning threw for 330 yards and two touchdowns on 25 of 38 passing. And in case you’ve forgotten, he doesn’t have Plaxico Burress at his disposal anymore, nor has Amani Toomer found the fountain of youth and returned to New York to give Eli a solid possession receiver.

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When you are drafting your fantasy football team, you’re picking running backs, receivers and quarterbacks first. Tight ends and kickers are usually taken in the mid-late rounds because their value isn’t as high, and, especially in the case of kickers, you can still get a decent one in the draft’s final round. Here is a look back at the 2008 leaders at the two positions and how we think those numbers will project to 2009:

TIGHT ENDS

1. Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs—During a season in which he was kind of auditioning for other teams, Gonzalez had one of his best campaigns—96 catches for 1058 yards and 10 touchdowns. Those are, like, Torry Holt numbers. Gonzo is now with the Atlanta Falcons, where he should have the opportunity to put up similar numbers in 2009.

2. Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers—Gates had a disappointing season overall, with zero 100 yard games. But he was hurt most of the year, so even when he played he was hobbling. Still, 704 yards and 8 scores is not too shabby. This season, Gates should top that by at least 50%.

3. Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts—Clark was injured to start the 2008 season, but he really came on strong toward the end of it, just like his Colts team did. Clark owners were treated to a 12-catch, 142-yard, 1 TD game in week 15, and overall he finished with 77 catches for 848 yards and 6 touchdowns. There is no good reason to expect any less in ’09.

4. Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota Vikings—Shiancoe made more headlines for inadvertently showing his bare ass on camera, but he finished the season with one huge game to pad his 2008 stats, too. That was in Week 16, known in the fantasy world as title week—so Shiancoe no doubt helped some of you win your league by catching 7 passes for 136 yards and 2 scores, giving him totals of 42-596-7 on the season. But dude is too streaky to consider drafting earlier than the 12th round or so.

5. Anthony Fasano, Miami Dolphins—Fasano was streaky but, like Shiancoe, he had a 2-TD game in Week 16, which boosted his season value. Fasano finished with 34 catches for 454 yards and 7 TDs, but I’d be surprised if he’s even drafted by 50% of you. I mean, Jason Witten didn’t even make this list due to being hurt most of ’08.

KICKERS

1. Stephen Gostkowski, New England Patriots—The Patriots didn’t score as many TDs as they did in 2007 so Gostkowski only had 40 extra points as opposed to 74 the year before. That meant more field goal opps, and he converted 36 of 40 to lead all kickers with 148 points. He also had four field goals and five PATs in week 16 to help some win titles. With Tom Brady back, there is no reason to think Gostkowski’s numbers will dip much, but he may have more extra points in ’09.

2. David Akers, Philadelphia Eagles—He’s had a history of injuries, but when he’s in the lineup, Akers is one of the game’s most accurate kickers. Last season he had two 4-field goal games and three 3-field goal games. The Eagles are going to put points on the board, so Akers is draft material for sure.

3. John Carney, New York Giants—This was almost a fluke, as Carney had to fill in for the injured Lawrence Tynes. He did so well that he made the Pro Bowl, kicking 35 of 38 field goals and 38 of 38 on extra points. But with Tynes healthy, Carney is once again looking for work in ’09.

4. Matt Bryant, Tampa Bay Bucs—Bryant had to endure the death of his infant son a few games in, but he battled admirably. However, this is the Bucs we’re talking about, and they only allowed Bryant 36 PAT chances. Overall he had 32 of 38 field goals and 35 of the 36 extra points. But guys like Bryant are valuable because they play on teams that don’t score a lot of TDs, giving them more field goal chances. He should have similar numbers this season.

5. John Kasay, Carolina Panthers—Kasay had a 4-field goal game in week 1 and another in week 17, but only 20 field goals in the other 15 games. I’m just saying, I probably wouldn’t draft the guy.