Tag: A.J. Burnett (Page 4 of 8)

      Are the Yankees better off without A-Rod?

      March 9, 2009 /

      Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.com writes that there is no way the Bronx Bombers are better off without A-Rod in the lineup.

      The Yankees need him — badly. They can find a stopgap at third base and patch together a lineup while he misses the first part of the season. But if Rodriguez does not return from hip surgery as the A-Rod of old — or something close to it — then the team will be in trouble.

      Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu — all posted on-base percentages of .370 or better last season while combining for 87 homers and 299 RBIs. Giambi and Abreu left as free agents. Rodriguez is now questionable. Mark Teixeira cannot replace all three.

      The offense already had offensive issues; the Yankees finished only seventh in the American League in runs last season. Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui are coming off surgeries. Either Brett Gardner or Melky Cabrera will likely be a below-average producer in center field. And Teixeira, for all his gifts, is a .259 career hitter in April.

      The Yankees should be far better at run prevention now that they’ve added CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett to their starting rotation, and the return of a healthy Rodriguez in May would make them reasonably whole.

      But no one should assume that Rodriguez will simply return to his normal level of production, not when he will require further surgery at the end of the season.

      Anyone who thinks the Yanks will be better without A-Rod is dreaming. Their pitching staff has dramatically improved over last year’s staff, but it’s hard to replace a bat like A-Rod’s (he hit .302 last year with 35 dingers and 103 RBI) with Cody Ransom, even with guys like Teixeira, Posada and Jeter in the lineup.

      Maybe the clubhouse will be free of distraction without Rodriguez present, but the current Yankee players will still have to field questions about A-Rod’s absence and his steroid issues no matter what. Granted, those questions should fade after a while, but Rodriguez will return at some point and then the circus will start up again.

      The bottom line is that the Yanks need A-Rod’s bat if they want to compete with the Red Sox, Rays and Angels this year in the AL.

      MLB

      When in doubt, go for the healthy young guy

      March 6, 2009 /

      All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

      If you’re a fantasy baseball or football owner and you don’t read Rotoworld every day (or, in my case, several times a day), you’re not only missing out, but you may very well be costing yourself a chance at a league title. As far as free and comprehensive fantasy advice goes, nobody does it better than Rotoworld. Their player updates pull from all sorts of local and national sources and are updated throughout the day, and their columnists offer up plenty of great insight, both during the season and leading up to draft day. They even have their own draft guide, although you’ve got to pay $15 for that.

      Howard Megdal (who, as far as I can tell, is new to the Rotoworld staff this season) just posted a great article about the value of youth and health on draft day:

      So when I draft, I want as much predictability as possible. Therefore, my two touchstones are getting as many players in their age peak (roughly 25-30), with an added focus on injury history. Such a strategy provides no guarantees—no strategy does—but puts me in the best position to consolidate my gains. And as a bonus—a healthy player of peak age, more likely than not, is going to be a player who has that surprise season you were hoping for from the rookie, anyway.

      I’m always amazed by how many owners don’t pay attention to age or injury history during their drafts, especially in the early rounds. Every year, someone drafts a guy like AJ Burnett too early, and every year Burnett goes down with some kind of injury. Go ahead and take Lance Berkman in the second round — I’ll gladly wait another round or two and snag the younger Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder. Upside, upside, upside.

      Megdal goes on to target some of the likely first-rounders that he’s avoiding this year:

      Ian Kinsler is another top-12 player with red flags of the white bandage variety. For the third straight season, he showed that when healthy, he is an offensive force at a position, second base, with very few of them. But he played in just 121 games, this time due to a sports hernia, and his season-high through three seasons is 130. No reason he can’t help a fantasy team—but let someone else draft his injury history first.

      Also consider dropping Jimmy Rollins, who played in 137 games last season and already has back issues in spring training, and Carl Crawford, who was limited to 109 games with a finger injury last year. Crawford in particular appears to be healthy this spring—but grab the guy who just put up 150-160 games in 2008. An extra 10-15 games out of your best player could be the difference in some leagues.

      Instead of Kinsler, who averaged fewer than 124 games per season from 2006-2008, how about Brandon Phillips, who has averaged around 150 games per season? Phillips is 27, suggesting that his best year may come in 2009.

      I’m pretty high on both Kinsler and Phillips, as I noted in my second base preview, but while Kinsler is younger (by one year) and may arguably have a little more upside, Phillips has the much healthier track record and can be snagged a little later than Kinsler, which likely makes him the better value of the two. When you consider the premium you’ll need to pay for Kinsler (a late first or early second rounder), Phillips becomes that much more intriguing.

      Megdal wisely suggests not becoming a slave to this (or any) draft strategy, because remaining too loyal to a plan could close you out of any mid- to late-round bargains that may fall into your lap. But when it comes to debating the merits of Carlos Delgado vs. Adrian Gonzalez, AJ Burnett vs. Edinson Volquez, or Carlos Lee vs. Nick Markakis, you’d be wise to go with the younger, healthier guy.

      Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Football, General Sports, MLB

      Five MLB storylines to watch in 2009

      March 1, 2009 /

      The A-Rod steroid mess is finally boiling over, the World Baseball Classic is fast-approaching and making GMs and managers nervous, and the 2009 regular season is a little over a month away. It’s hard to believe we crowned the Phillies world champs a third of a year ago, but time does fly like Jose Reyes around the bases. With that, let’s look at some interesting questions that beg to be answered in 2009:

      1. Who will be the surprise team this year? Last year it was the Tampa Bay Rays, who not only won the ridiculously competitive AL East, but also beat the Red Sox in the ALCS to reach the World Series, which they eventually lost to the Phillies. In 2007, the Colorado Rockies won 21 of 22 games after September 17, including sweeping the Cubs and D-Backs in the playoffs before losing to Boston in the Fall Classic. In 2006 it was the Cardinals who squeaked into the postseason with an 83-78 record, ultimately winning it all. Who is going to do it this season? Or will it be a big-market, big-money World Series match up such as Yankees/Mets or Red Sox/Cubs? It’s almost impossible to say I told you so at this point to this type of question, but here are the teams I’m telling you to keep an eye on: Indians, A’s, Giants, Marlins.

      2. How will the choking of recent seasons affect the Mets, Cubs and Angels? The Mets’ bullpen imploded two years in a row, and GM Omar Minaya went and picked up not one, but two lights-out closers in K-Rod and JJ Putz. Still, the Mets are not going to have an easy go of things in the NL East, and their lineup and starting rotation are bordering on suspect. The Cubs and Angels keep beating everyone up in the regular season only to flame out early in the playoffs. Do these two teams lack what it takes to win, or has the luck and clutch hitting of other teams been their demise? Honestly, you can’t keep talented teams like these three down for very long, and I expect all of them to be playing deep into October this time around.

      3. Is Manny Ramirez going to play in 2009? Scott Boras keeps dangling his star client out there and keeps upping his asking price. Does this guy not want his commission? Yes, it’s downright irresponsible to try and rape MLB franchises in this economy, but Manny is the one guy in baseball who can shift the balance of power in a division with his insane offensive skills. I think eventually the Dodgers are going to re-sign Manny, but at what price and for how long? And before or after the season starts?

      4. Who is going to win the AL East? You’ve got the mighty Yankees, who went out and bought another 10 or 15 wins by signing CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett and Mark Teixeira. You’ve got the Red Sox, who despite falling short last year against Tampa are still technically the team to beat in the division. And you’ve got the upstart Rays, who no one thought could keep up their winning ways for seven months and did just that. I just think the Sox are too talented and the Rays are going to drop to second or even third place in 2009, and I think the Yankees are going to make the playoffs but not win the division. Money just can’t buy team chemistry, ever.

      5. Will Tim Lincecum be as brilliant in 2009 as he was in 2008? Or will his arm fall off? This kid, and he’s a 25 year old who looks like he’s 17, has some of the nastiest stuff in the majors and ran away with the NL Cy Young Award last year by going 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA and 265 strikeouts in 227 innings. You want perspective? The Giants only won 72 games last year, so Lincecum had a quarter of their wins. That’s just insane. But history shows that guys like this can’t keep it up long-term unless they’re named Clemens or Smoltz. I see another great season in 2009 but I’d temper expectations beyond that. And the Giants may just sneak into the playoffs in a less-than-stellar NL West this year.

      Bullz-Eye Sports Channel, Fantasy Baseball, MLB

      Hot Stove League: Pitchers Flying Off Shelves

      January 17, 2009 /

      This past week, John Smoltz officially signed with the Red Sox and the Braves inked Derek Lowe to a four-year, $60 million deal, something Atlanta’s rival New York Mets could not match. Imagine that. But what runs deeper here is that the second and even third tier of pitchers continue to be signed and many position players remain team-less.

      Less than a month before pitchers and catchers report, here are some of the big names still available: Manny freaking Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Ken Griffey, Orlando Hudson, Frank Thomas, and to a lesser extent, Kevin Millar (20 homers last season) and Orlando Cabrera. To put this in perspective, the Astros signed pitcher Russ Ortiz to a minor league deal a few days ago, the Dodgers signed reliever Guillermo Mota, the Angels inked Darren Oliver for one year, and the White Sox brought back a Bartolo Colon who is on the downside of his career. Clearly, it’s a pitchers’ market this off-season, and it’s almost mind-boggling that Ramirez has gone almost three full months without being signed.

      Part of the problem here is that the big spenders (ahem, New York teams) have blown their collective load on the likes of CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Mark Teixeira, Francisco Rodriguez, etc., leaving a team like the Dodgers the likely scenario for Man-Ram in 2009, which at the end of the day is probably best for both sides anyway. But some of those other guys are going to have trouble finding work, or they are going to take a recession-friendly deal from a team they wouldn’t have signed with otherwise. It’s already happened with Pat Burrell in Tampa and Jason Giambi with Oakland.

      In other more recent news, the Red Sox avoided arbitration with Kevin Youkilis on Thursday, agreeing to terms on a four-year deal. And the Dodgers finally released beleaguered outfielder Andruw Jones, who the Braves are considering bringing back for the league minimum salary. The Braves are also mulling over whether to bring back injury-plagued LHP Tom Glavine for one more season.

      Bullz-Eye Sports Channel, Fantasy Baseball, MLB, Rumors & Gossip

      The Braves gave Derek Lowe how much?

      January 14, 2009 /

      After losing long-time veteran John Smoltz to the Red Sox, the Braves decided to fill the hole in their starting rotation with former Dodger pitcher Derek Lowe. They also paid him $60 million.

      Derek Lowe10: I understand the desperate need for a starter and Derek Lowe’s leverage played huge roles in the decision. But don’t you find it interesting that Braves general manager Frank Wren, who didn’t want to take any “risks” with the pitching staff next season, just gave a four-year, $60 million contract to a 35-year-old?

      9: Lowe is solid but not what you’d call spectacular: 68-60 with a 3.91 ERA over the last five years. He has averaged 206 innings in that span. A $15 million a year pitcher? No. But he’ll help. Given the collapse of Pompeii, Wren didn’t have much of a choice. But if Lowe starts to look his age in two years, this contract has the potential of being a Hamptonian albatross.

      Sixty million is a lot of dough for a 35-year old pitcher who doesn’t have dazzling numbers, but the Braves are probably still better off with him at a cheaper rate than A.J. Burnett, who signed a five-year, $82.5 million contract with the Yankees. Lowe is more dependable than Burnett, as well as more consistent.

      But $60 million? I thought baseball GM’s were trying to cut down on ridiculous salaries?

      MLB

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