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      Championship Week Primer: Bubble teams and #1 seeds

      March 9, 2009 /

      Strap ‘em up, kids. Championship Week is upon us!

      Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s square off tonight in the final of the WCC tourney (9 PM ET, and why isn’t this game on national television?), and with the Gaels’ #45 RPI, they could really use a win to guarantee a NCAA tourney berth. The good news is that their leading scorer, Patrick Mills, is back, scoring 12 points in 35 minutes in yesterday’s win over Portland. If Saint Mary’s loses to the ‘Zags, it would put the Gaels squarely on the bubble. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has Saint Mary’s as a #10 seed, but I think that assumes that the committee will take Mills’ injury into account. After all, he was out of the lineup for three of the team’s five losses. Lunardi says that the Gaels are safe, but they don’t have a marquee win and are just 2-2 against the RPI top 50, so anything can happen.

      But let’s move on to the “major” conference tournaments that will take place this week. I’m going to tackle these one-by-one in the order of Jeff Sagarin’s conference rankings.

      ACC

      Lunardi projects six ACC teams – UNC, Wake Forest, Duke, Clemson, Florida State and Boston College – to make the Dance, and of those teams only BC really has anything to worry about. The Eagles (#57 RPI) are probably safe, but a first round loss on Thursday against Virginia might make BC squirm a bit on Selection Sunday.

      Miami, Maryland and Virginia Tech are three teams that could play themselves into an NCAA berth with a nice ACC tourney run. What do I mean by “a nice run”? Well, Virginia Tech and Miami square off on Thursday, so if whomever wins gives North Carolina a great game on Friday, that might be enough. The Hurricanes are a bit closer than the Hokies, so VT would probably have to pull the upset against the Tar Heels to earn a bid. Miami could potentially get in with an 18-12 record and a #53 RPI (against the 26th-toughest schedule) if they were to lose to North Carolina.

      Meanwhile, Maryland has to beat N.C. State on Thursday and then (at least) pull the upset against the seemingly vulnerable Demon Deacons on Friday.

      As far as #1 seeds go, North Carolina pretty much sewed one up with their second win against Duke on Sunday. Neither the Blue Devils nor Demon Deacons would seem to have a shot at one of the other three #1 seeds. It’s conceivable that Duke would be able to make a case if they win the ACC Tournament (beating Wake and UNC in the process) and a few of the teams ranked ahead of them have poor conference showings. Despite the brutal schedule (#3) and stellar RPI (3), Duke is realistically shooting for a #2 or #3 seed.

      ACC Tournament bracket

      BIG TEN

      It’s funny, because the conventional wisdom is that the Big Ten is down this season, but it is 2nd in Jeff Sagarin’s rankings and Lunardi projects eight Big Ten teams to make the NCAA tournament, the most of any conference. The list includes Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Penn State. Three of those teams – Penn St., Minnesota and Michigan – play in the first round on Thursday and they really need a win (against Indiana, Northwestern and Iowa, respectively) to keep their postseason hopes alive.

      In the next round, Minnesota would need to compete with Michigan State, Michigan with Illinois and Penn State with Purdue to clinch a spot. If any of these teams are blown out in the next round, they’ll be right back on the bubble. With an RPI of 38, the Badgers look to be safe, but a win against Ohio State would seal a bid (and vice versa, if the Buckeyes were to win).

      The only team with a legitimate shot at a #1 seed is Michigan State. The Spartans have the #6 RPI and the 8th-toughest schedule, so if they win the Big Ten tourney, they have a great shot to move up to the top line.

      Big Ten Tournament bracket

      BIG EAST

      The Big East Championship serves as the actual championship for the conference –they don’t recognize a “regular season” champion. It kicks off on Tuesday with the #9-#16 seeds (on BIGEAST.tv) and then on Wednesday the #5-#8 seeds – Marquette, Syracuse, West Virigina and Providence – start play. At 8-10 in conference, Cincinnati is out barring an unlikely four wins in four days scenario. Lunardi currently projects West Virginia as a #7 seed, so they are safe. Likewise, Syracuse (#6 seed) and Marquette (#7 seed) are both safely in.

      So the Big East team that can help itself the most is Providence. Lunardi projects the Friars to miss the cut, and with an 18-12 record and a #70 RPI, it’s easy to see why. However, if Providence can beat the winner of the Cincinnati/DePaul game in convincing fashion and then give Louisville a great game, it might be enough to earn them a bid. After all, the Friars did beat #1 Pitt just two weeks ago. But a near win against Louisville probably won’t be enough; realistically, Providence needs to beat Louisville to secure a berth. That would give the Friars 20 wins and a couple of marquee victories over two of the top teams in the nation.

      On the other end of the spectrum, there are three Big East teams — Louisville, Pitt and UConn — that have a legitimate shot at a #1 seed. In fact, Lunardi projects all three as #1 seeds right now, but it is likely that one or more will fall off as the Big East Championship progresses. The Huskies seem to be on the most tenuous footing, given their two head-to-head losses against Pitt in the last three weeks. If both teams survive, Pitt and UConn are projected to meet on Friday, with the winner having a golden opportunity to clinch a #1 seed by winning the next night as well.

      Big East Championship bracket

      PAC-10

      Lunardi says that four Pac-10 teams – Washington, UCLA, Cal and Arizona St. – are already in, while Arizona is holding on for dear life. In fact, he says that they are the very last team in. The Wildcats don’t have a great RPI (52), but their SOS (#32) works in their favor.

      Arizona is in a tough spot as the #5 seed in the conference tourney because they play a good team (ASU) right off the bat. A win would probably secure a berth, but a loss would probably knock them out. (And you can bet that after living in Arizona’s considerable hoops shadow for years, that the Sun Devils would like nothing more than to be the ones to knock their arch-rival out of the postseason.)

      On the flip side, it’s conceivable that a tournament win would push Washington up to the next line. The Huskies have a strong RPI (13) and have played a tough schedule (#14), so if they can beat UCLA or Cal in the Pac-10 final, they may be rewarded with a #2 seed.

      Pac-10 Tournament bracket

      BIG 12

      Joe Lunardi currently projects six Big 12 teams – Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas and Oklahoma St. – to make the NCAA tournament. Those teams are seeded #9 or above, so all six would seem to be safely in. The team that can play its way into the tournament is Kansas State. The Wildcats have a 21-10 record, but their RPI (#76) and schedule (#111) are lacking. After a string of victories that included wins against Missouri, Texas and Texas A&M in late January/early February, the Wildcats have gone 4-3 over their last seven, including losses to Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma St. What’s worse, there isn’t a good win amongst the four in that stretch. They are likely to play Texas on Thursday, and that’s absolutely a must-win game.

      If things break the right way, both Kansas and Oklahoma could play themselves into a #1 seed. It would help if they faced each other in the tourney final, and if they beat good competition on the way there (Oklahoma St., Missouri for OU and Texas for the Jayhawks). With a Big 12 tourney win, I think the Sooners have a great shot at a #1 seed if the committee takes into account their 0-2 record without POY candidate Blake Griffin, who was out with a concussion.

      Big 12 Championship bracket

      SEC

      According to Jeff Sagarin, the Southeastern Conference is a good bit weaker than any of the other five majors, and this makes sense when Lunardi only picks three SEC teams to make the tourney. (That’s one fewer than the Mountain West!) The fact of the matter is that the SEC is much more of a football conference than it is a basketball conference right now.

      LSU and Tennessee are safely in, and Lunardi projects South Carolina to be a #12 seed so the Gamecocks (along with the Gators) are very much on the bubble. South Carolina needs to win its game on Friday (vs. the winner of the Georgia/Miss. St. game) and could seal a bid with a win (or at least a good showing) in a potential matchup with LSU on Saturday. Regardless of whom they play, the Gamecocks would probably get a berth with two wins in the SEC tourney. Likewise, Florida can play themselves into strong consideration with wins against Arkansas and a pretty good Auburn team. Clearly, a third win (over Tennessee?) would put the Gators back in the Big Dance.

      Both LSU and Tennessee are currently projected to be #6 seeds, but a tourney championship for either team could bump the winner up a line or two, especially if the two teams square off in the final.

      SEC Tournament bracket

      College Basketball, March Madness, Television

      Athlete Profile: Mark Sanchez

      March 9, 2009 /

      If it seems as though Mark Sanchez is handling the constant comparisons to fellow top QB prospect Matthew Stafford in stride, that’s because the former USC signal-caller knows a thing or two about competition.

      After all, he starred for a school that in the last 6 years has produced four NFL quarterbacks – Carson Palmer (’03), Matt Cassel (’05), Matt Leinart (’06) and John David Booty (’08). Now, Sanchez stands poised to become the fifth.

      Competition was so stiff at quarterback for USC that Sanchez didn’t even become a full-time starter until this past season. But he made the most of it, shredding defenses to the tune of 3,207 yards and 34 touchdowns while leading Southern Cal to a 12-1 record. He capped off his season by leading the Trojans to a 38-24 Rose Bowl victory over Penn State in which he completed 80 percent of his passes for 413 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions, while also rushing for a score.

      Despite his stellar season and even better bowl game performance, some question Sanchez’s NFL value because of his relatively limited time under center in college.

      Count USC Head Coach Pete Carroll among his doubters. During a press conference in which Sanchez announced his intention to declare for the NFL Draft, Carroll said he disagreed with his quarterback’s choice, citing numerous cases and statistical data that suggest quarterbacks who leave school early struggle in the NFL.

      His coach’s lack of confidence aside, Sanchez certainly has the physical tools of an NFL quarterback. The 6’3″, 225-pound signal caller possesses a quick release, displays solid arm strength, above average athleticism and great field vision. He’s also known to be something of a gym rat – a quality that will certainly come in handy as he tries to break the mold of quarterbacks that entered the NFL draft early. It’s also important to note that Sanchez is a fourth-year junior, and will walk away from USC this year with his degree.

      As for those comparisons to Stafford, it appears that the University of Georgia product is winning the battle in the minds of pro scouts and draft pundits. Scouts love Stafford’s arm strength and claim he can make all the throws necessary for a quarterback to succeed in the NFL. Sanchez certainly is not backing down, choosing to perform every drill at the combine, both physical and throwing drills, while Stafford opted to sit out. Sanchez can also claim a slight advantage in on-field performance, as he threw for nine more TDs than Stafford did, while the Georgia QB engineered the Bulldogs to two more losses than Sanchez’s Trojans.

      No matter what team he ends up with, or how many quarterbacks are taken before him, it’s safe to say Sanchez will welcome the head-on competition. After all, he hasn’t backed down from a single battle yet.

      The latest on Sanchez

      Widely regarded by draft scouts as the second-best quarterback available in the draft behind Matthew Stafford, Sanchez should still go in the first round, possibly in the first 15 picks.

      Mel Kiper Jr. has him going no. 3 to the Kansas City Chiefs

      SI.com’s Don Banks says the Jacksonville Jaguars will take him no. 8

      Todd McShay says he will go no. 15 to the Houston Texans

      Sanchez on the Web

      ESPN.com profile

      Career and year-by-year statistics

      USC profile

      Stats and personal information

      Wikipedia page

      Loads of information and links on Sanchez

      New York Times feature from September 2008

      Billy Witz writes of the emphasis Mark’s dad Nick put on education

      ESPN The Magazine preseason 2008 feature (with video of the Sanchez family)

      Jose Arangure, Jr. writes about Sanchez’s upbringing, and his Mexican-American heritage

      USA Today article on Sanchez at the combine

      Jim Corbett describes Sanchez’s drive to prove himself worthy of the top pick in the draft

      Fan site

      Bio, news and videos

      Video of Todd McShay breaking down Sanchez’s game

      ESPN’s draft guru points out Sanchez’s strengths and weaknesses

      Video of Sanchez and USC roommate Stanley Havili showing off their crib

      They’ve got a pet snake named Katrina

      Video of every single one of Sanchez’s Rose Bowl passes

      Shield your eyes, Penn State fans

      Video of Pete Carroll upset over Sanchez leaving early

      Sanchez Says

      On interviewing with so many NFL teams at the combine in a short time span:

      “It’s like speed dating.”

      On whether or not he should be the no. 1 pick instead of Matthew Stafford:

      “Absolutely. I’d better think that. I think he should think that too.”

      On USC Coach Pete Carroll saying Sanchez would have been better off returning to school:

      “If you know coach, you know how competitive he is. I took that as a sign of respect. A very good football coach wanted me back on that team.”

      College Football, NFL, NFL Draft

      Alex Rodiguez has torpedoed my fantasy draft strategy

      March 9, 2009 /

      All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

      The collective groan you heard when Alex Rodriguez announced that he would have “hybrid” surgery to repair his injured hip was not solely the work of the Yankee faithful. The ramifications in fantasy circles are staggering, especially if you, like me, happen to have the fifth pick in your draft.

      Just a few days ago, I thought I had my draft strategy all figured out. The first round would simply be a matter of which of the Big Five (Hanley, Reyes, Pujols, A-Rod, Wright) fell to me. The mock drafts I conducted a few weeks ago indicated that Wright would be my guy, which was fine with me. The post-surgery view from the five-hole, however, is bleak. The Big Five is now the Big Four – Rodriguez is currently sitting at #49 in my draft room – and whichever player I take with my first pick now feels like a reach. However, after doing some stat sorting, I found my guy. He’s a former MVP with pop and speed. So why don’t I want to take him?

      Because it’s the same guy I drafted with my first pick last year: Jimmy Rollins.

      Before you Philly fanatics start throwing batteries at me, let me state for the record that I think Rollins is a damn fine ball player (obviously, or I wouldn’t have drafted him last year). My reluctance to take him is something that sabremetricians never factor into their projections: keeper fatigue. Truth be told, I’m kind of bored with Rollins. I was really looking forward to owning Wright, or Rodriguez, or someone else, anyone else, besides Rollins. It’s nothing personal; his stats are phenomenal, especially at one of the thinnest positions in the game. I just wanted some variety.

      So why not draft someone else, then? Grady Sizemore is sitting at #6, screaming my name. He’s 27 – unlike rock stars, 27 is a great year to be a baseball player – and has 40-40 written all over him (plus, my wife thinks he’s cute). So why not take him? Two words: position scarcity. Actually, here are two more words: points league. I play in a league that keeps track of 34 different stats (17 for hitters, 17 for pitchers), and the combination of various hits plus stolen bases minus strikeouts, errors and getting caught stealing (once, when I was five) produces some strange results. Case in point: Johnny Damon scored more points last year than Aramis Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera and even Ryan Howard. Rollins, like Damon, isn’t as sexy a pick as he once was, but the simple fact is that it’s a lot harder to find a shortstop that can score over 500 points (there are three) than it is to find an outfielder (18) or first baseman (seven) that can do the same. In fact, the gulf between Rollins and the next shortstop is nearly 150 points. He was even injured last year, and still outscored the next shortstop by 90 points. The gap between Sizemore and the next outfielder, by comparison, is 30 points, so I can definitely get Sizemore-type production in the second or third round. It’s a no-brainer, really.

      And I still don’t want to do it. Ugh.

      That’s only half of my dilemma, though; what on earth do I do with Rodriguez? He had the surgery today and is scheduled to return in early May. There is just one problem: we have no idea when he’ll really return, and what kind of frame of mind he’ll be in when he does. Will the steroids talk have died down for good – insert your own “injury” conspiracy theory here – or will another wave of bad press hit between now and then? Personally, I’m not counting on him playing a game until Memorial Day, but will the other managers downgrade him as much as I am? It’s like playing Texas Hold ‘Em with baseball players. Hmmm, maybe that’s why there has been so much pious talk about how disappointed everyone is with Rodriguez because he tarnished the game, or whatever. People just want to devalue him so they can steal him in the seventh round.

      But is even that a safe pick? There are dozens of other, healthier, and most importantly younger players out there. Would a full season of a lesser player be better than four and a half months of Rodriguez? Or are injuries overrated when it comes to the studs? After all, I passed up Pujols in the second round last year because I thought he was one bean ball away from Tommy John Surgery on that elbow of his. Man, did he show me.

      So let me hear it, fellow fantasy dorks. What are you planning on doing with A-Rod? Avoiding him altogether, or waiting until the price is right? And what is the right price?

      Fantasy Baseball, MLB, News

      Lions to take Matthew Stafford with first pick?

      March 9, 2009 /

      Lions’ beat writer Nicholas J. Cotsonika believes that Detroit will select Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford with the first overall pick in April’s draft.

      I don’t think they have settled on Stafford by any means. He didn’t throw at the NFL scouting combine, and he hasn’t had his pro day yet. It also might come down to contract talks. The Lions want to get something done before the draft and plan to negotiate with at least three top candidates.

      But I think Stafford could fit and the Lions are set up to take him. He has a big arm to get the ball to the Lions’ best player, wide receiver Calvin Johnson. He is compared to Jay Cutler. And for whom did the Lions just try to trade? Jay Cutler. Stafford could sit behind Daunte Culpepper for a while. He doesn’t have to be thrown into the fire the way Joey Harrington was.

      When I talk to writers from other cities, they are amazed that Curry or a left tackle would be a more popular choice than Stafford for the first pick. They assume the fans would go ga-ga over a quarterback. They don’t understand how Lions fans have been burned by huge draft misses at offensive skill positions.

      Still, I’m amazed at how afraid some Lions fans are of taking a quarterback. You have to learn from the past, but you can’t let past failures paralyze you. The Lions can’t force it. They can’t just take a quarterback for the sake of taking a quarterback. But I don’t think they will.

      This is a long-term project, and quarterback is a good place to start when you’re starting from scratch. I think if they think Stafford has what it takes to lead this franchise to a championship, they will take him and groom him as carefully as they can.

      One thing everyone has to remember is that the Lions have to believe that Stafford (specifically) is their long-term fix at quarterback. It’s not about taking a quarterback because you need a quarterback or taking an offensive lineman because you need an offensive lineman. That player obviously has to fit a team’s scheme, philosophy and overall makeup. That may seem like an obvious statement, but the more and more I listen to fans and some media members, you’d think that drafting a quarterback is as easy as shopping for toilet paper.

      Curry will give Stafford a run at the No. 1 pick – I guarantee you. He’s arguably the best overall player in the draft, can play multiple linebacker positions and seems to have a good head on his shoulders. He would be a great new defensive toy for new head coach Jim Schwartz.

      NFL

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