Ohio State comeback stuns Penn State

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I’ll admit it. I was skeptical about JT Barrett after the Oklahoma game. I didn’t think he could fix the passing game and perform at a high level against a team like Penn State. JT proved me and plenty of other doubters wrong tonight.

JT was simply fabulous. He completed 33 of 39 passes for 328 yards, 4 TDs and no picks. The Buckeyes were down 21-3 at one point and then down 15 points two times in the second half, but JT put the team on his back and imposed his will on Penn State.

Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley started the game with a spectacular kickoff return for a touchdown, and followed that with a 36-yard touchdown run, but then was stuffed by the Ohio State defense for the rest of the game. He only gained a net 8 yards on his other 20 carries! He’s a hell of a talent, but the kid is human and tonight showed some of the hype had gotten to ridiculous levels.

The Buckeyes tried to give this game away with terrible special teams play and some questionable play calls in the red zone, but they moved the ball at will against Penn State and now have a clear shot at the College Football Playoff if they can win out. Penn State will likely need a lot of help.

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Fade Material: College Football Week 2 Predictions

University of Alabama head coach Nick Saban talks with Trent Richardson (3) during the first half of play against the University of Louisville in their NCAA football game at Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington, Kentucky, October 3, 2009. REUTERS/John Sommers II (UNITED STATES SPORT FOOTBALL)

My “Fade Material” in Week 1 actually wasn’t fade material at all, as I went 3-1 with my picks. I hit Boise State, Minnesota and Stanford, while Oregon ruined my shot at a perfect week. It’s a shame too because if you can’t trust a Duck, who can you trust?

TCU @ Air Force, 3:30PM ET
The Horned Frogs are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games against Air Force and 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss. The Falcons, meanwhile, are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win and 1-6 ATS in their lat seven conference games. I just don’t see TCU starting the year 0-2 and this is practically a pick’em.
THE PICK: TCU -1

Alabama @ Penn State, 3:30PM ET
The Crimson Tide are 7-0 against the spread in their last seven non-conference games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in September. They’re also 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and 4-1 ATS in their lat five games as a favorite. ‘Bama proved last year that Penn State didn’t belong on the same field as them and while things could be different this time around with the Nittany Lions play at home, I like the Tide defense to dominate in this one.
THE PICK: ALABAMA -10

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2011 College Football Program Power Rankings

Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor hands off the ball to tailback Dane Sanzenbacher in the third quarter at the Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans during the 77th Annual Allstate Sugar Bowl January 4, 2011. The Buckeyes won 31-26 UPI/Dave Fornell

Almost a year ago we decided to try to quantify the stature of college football programs so that we could rank them against one another. (Click here for the 2010 Rankings.) Then our football guru, Anthony Stalter, wrote a little bit about each program and the direction that it’s headed.

Here’s how the total points are determined — 20 points for a national championship, 10 for a BCS title game loss, seven for a BCS bowl win, five for a BCS bowl loss, five for a BCS conference championship, three for a mid-major conference championship, two for a BCS conference runner-up and one for a major bowl appearance (i.e. a bowl that has a recent payout of more than $2 million, so for 2011 that would be Capital One, Outback, Chick-fil-A, Cotton, Gator, Insight, Holiday, Champs Sports and Alamo.) You’ll see the total points in parenthesis after the team’s name.

We put some thought into the point values for each accomplishment, paying special attention to how the point values are relative to one another. For example, we figured that one national championship would equate to four BCS conference championships, or three BCS bowl wins. We only looked at the last five years, as college football has increasingly become a fluid and fickle sport, and that’s about how far back a recruit will go when deciding amongst a list of schools.

Lastly, since a program is so dependent on the guy in charge, we added or subtracted points if the program saw an upgrade or downgrade at the head coach position in the last five years. A max of 10 points would be granted (or docked) based on the level of upgrade or downgrade. Again, we tried to quantify the hire relative to the program’s other accomplishments. For example, hiring Nick Saban is probably worth two BCS bowl appearances, or 10 points. (Sure, he might lead Alabama to more, but he also might bolt for another job in a year or two.)

So, without further ado, here are the rankings. Every year we’ll go through and update the numbers based on what the program did that year (while throwing out the oldest year of data), so don’t fret if your team isn’t quite where you want them right now. Everyone has a chance to move up.

1. Ohio State (58)

Previous Rank: #2 (+1)
Some college football fans will take issue with the Buckeyes being No. 1 because of their “soft schedule.” But this is a team that has dominated its conference five of the past six years and has finished no worse than second in each of the past six seasons. They’ve also appeared in two title games (though they lost both) and nine straight BCS bowl games, winning the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl in the past two years. They’ve got an interesting season coming up though. Five of their players including quarterback Terrelle Pryor, running back Dan Herron and receiver DeVier Posey will miss the first five games next year after being suspended. Can the Buckeyes stay unscathed until those players return?

2. Florida (51)

Previous Rank: #1 (-1)
If it weren’t for Urban Meyer leaving the program (and their lousy 2010 season), the Gators would probably still be ranked No. 1. They have three conference championships and two national championships in two years, but the lose of Meyer hurts big-time in these rankings. But don’t fret Florida fans, if Will Muschamp gets the program back on the right track then the Gators won’t be at No. 2 for long.

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Big Ten title will be decided today (and probably by some computers tomorrow)

IOWA CITY, IA - NOVEMBER 20: Quarterback Terrelle Pryor  of the Ohio State Buckeyes celebrates with fans after beating the University of Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium on November 20, 2010 in Iowa City, Iowa. Ohio State won 20-17 over Iowa. (Photo by David Purdy/Getty Images).

After Friday’s games, today might be a little anti-climactic, but there’s still plenty to be determined on college football’s more traditional day.

The Big Ten title is still up for grabs, with three teams — Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State — all tied at the top with one loss. If all three win, the BCS standings will decide who goes to the Rose Bowl. That will likely be Wisconsin, which has that edge going into today. If Wisconsin loses and the other two win, the BCS will again decide who goes to the Rose Bowl, as Ohio State and Michigan State did not play each other. It’s a problem the Big Ten will have solved next year when there’s a title game (two title contenders not playing each other, that is. As the Big 12 showed us two years ago, the BCS can still decide a divisional race if all hell breaks loose).

If Wisconsin wins, however, and either Ohio State or Michigan State lose, it will be a lot more clear cut. The Spartans get the bid with an Ohio State loss as they have the head-to-head edge over Wisconsin. The Badgers get it if Michigan State loses, because they hold that same edge over Ohio State.

So those are your scenarios (sure, there’s the “all three lose” scenario, as well, where Iowa is back in the mix, but I don’t want to force that upon you before noon). Here’s how it will play out. Read the rest of this entry »

Will Cam Newton play? Will it even matter?

AUBURN, AL - OCTOBER 23: Quarterback Cameron Newton  of the Auburn Tigers reacts after scoring a touchdown against the LSU Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium on October 23, 2010 in Auburn, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

One of the beauties of getting XM radio is that I get to listen to the Paul Finebaum show on a daily basis. For those that don’t know, Finebaum’s show is technically now a national college football radio show, but it can’t get away from its southeastern roots.

Every four out of five callers is from Alabama or Mississippi, and they’re crazy. The conspiracies they come up with on the officiating and play-calling from week to week would make Glenn Beck proud.

But the Cam Newton scandal has sent these folks into overdrive, and forced me to spend more time inside my car while it was sitting still in my driveway than one person should. People are blaming the press, Mississippi State, the press, Florida, the press, Nike, the press, Florida and the press. One caller, minutes after ESPN’s Joe Schad hung up with Finebaum, basically threatened to beat him up. It was amazing.

I don’t have a conspiracy theory on this, which is sad. But it will be really interesting to see how Auburn and Newton play today after having to listen to all of this over the last week.

I’m not picking the game because I have no idea who’s taking the field, but if Newton doesn’t play, expect the Bulldogs to win. A.J. Green has made them a legit SEC team. If Newton plays, however, the Tigers will roll on. Read the rest of this entry »

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