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      Filling out your bracket? I’m here to help. (Updated 3/18)

      March 18, 2009 /

      3/18 Update: I’ve modified a few picks with the news that Ty Lawson may not be able to go tomorrow because of the injury to his toe. This news casts serious doubt about just how healthy he can get over the next three weeks, and I no longer see North Carolina as a Final Four team. I have modified my picks so that North Carolina loses to Gonzaga in the Sweet Sixteen. I project the Bulldogs to go on and beat Syracuse in the Elite Eight, which means that Gonzaga is now one of my Final Four teams. (I know, I can’t believe it either.)

      This column is dedicated to the millions of Americans that will be filling out their March Madness brackets over the next few days.

      You might be thinking — why should I bother listening to this joker?

      Well, this is the third time that I’ve written this column and in the previous two seasons (2007, 2008), I successfully picked the winner both times.*

      * Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

      I’m still tweaking my method, but the crux of it is simple: Start with Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings and go from there. Over the past two seasons, teams that had a 2+ point advantage in Sagarin’s “Predictor” category went a combined 82-15 (85%). That’s a good place to start. Even when the teams are closely seeded (within 1-3 seeds), Sagarin’s ratings are solid. Last year, in games that were closely seeded, teams with a 2+ point Sagarin advantage went 14-2 (88%). In 2007, they went 8-4 (67%). So over the last two seasons, that’s a combined 22-6 (79%). Not bad.

      LOCATION

      Last year, there were five games where tight (< 2 point) Sagarin matchups were won by teams with a distinct location advantage. Davidson beat Gonzaga in Raleigh, Mississipi State beat Oregon in Little Rock, Kansas State beat USC in Omaha, Stanford beat Marquette in Anaheim and Texas beat Stanford in Houston. In fact, there weren’t any tight matchups that were won by the team that was at a distinct geographical disadvantage. This year, I am going to make this my first tiebraker for tight Sagarin matchups.

      SEED DIFFERENTIAL

      Seed differential is also a consideration, as teams with a four- to nine-seed advantage win at about a 75% clip. The data for the previous 16 seasons was compiled by BostonSportsHub, but since they are no longer updating their site, I added the seed records for the 2008 tournament. Here is a summary of the 17 years worth of data.

      So if Sagarin calculates that the teams are within two points, and there are no geographical considerations, then the next thing I look at is seed. If the differential is four or more, I am going with the better-seeded team barring some overriding factor. In 2008, this methodology was 2-1, winning the Oklahoma/St. Joseph and Purdue/Baylor matchups, while losing the USC/Kansas St. matchup. (Interestingly, all three winners had a slight advantage according to Sagarin, even #11-seed KSU.) Had I gone with KSU’s location advantage, this part of the system would have gone 2-0.

      POMEROY RATINGS

      Last season, I used Points Per Shot (PPS) to pick seven games and went 3-4. I still believe that PPS is a vital stat, but it doesn’t take into account turnovers, which is key when trying to determine just how good a team is. Ken Pomeroy has offensive and defensive efficiency stats that take into account pace and strength of schedule, and those are compiled to calculate his Pythagorean Winning Percentage.

      Here’s how the last few winners were ranked at the end of the tournament in this statistic: Kansas (1), Florida (2), Florida (1), North Carolina (1) and Connecticut (2). Clearly, when picking the overall winner, we don’t want to stray too far from this ranking.

      Let’s take a look at the Final Four participants for the last five years and see how they finished, keeping in mind that their final ranking does take into account how they performed during the tournament.

      2008: Kansas (1), Memphis (2), UCLA (3), North Carolina (4)
      2007: Florida (2), Ohio St. (4), Georgetown (5), UCLA (6)
      2006: Florida (1), UCLA (3), LSU (10), George Mason (23)
      2005: North Carolina (1), Illinois (2), Louisville (5), Michigan State (7)
      2004: UConn (2), Georgia Tech (7), Duke (1), Oklahoma St. (3)

      So, excluding the outlier (George Mason), the average Pythagorean ranking for Final Four teams over the last five years has been 3.6. I wish the site showed the pre-tourney rankings, because it would be helpful to know where these teams were ranked when they started the tournament. Since all we have to go by is where they stand now, it would seem unwise to pick a team outside of the top 10 to reach the Final Four.

      I used the Pythagorean method back in 2007, and through the second round of the tournament, it had picked 37 of 48 winners. I stopped using it at that point, and I’m not sure why. This year, I’ll keep track of its accuracy throughout the end of the tourney, though I think it’s important to use the static, pre-tourney rankings because that’s all we have to go by when we fill out our bracket.

      We’ll see how much I use this statistic as we dig into the bracket.

      So, without further ado…

      Continue reading »

      College Basketball, March Madness, Television

      Ty Lawson’s big toe is a big problem

      March 18, 2009 /

      North Carolina is supposed to march to the Final Four, but they’re going to have a tough time if they’re without ACC Player of the Year Ty Lawson.

      Coach Roy Williams says the Atlantic Coast Conference player of the year must practice Tuesday and Wednesday in order to play in Thursday’s NCAA matchup against Radford. Lawson has been hobbled since injuring his right big toe before the regular-season finale against Duke, an injury that sidelined him at last weekend’s ACC tournament.

      Williams says Lawson’s recovery is going slower than he had expected. Lawson said at the ACC tournament that he was feeling better after several days of rest.

      The good news is that the Tar Heels play their first two games in Greensboro, which is only about an hour away from campus. Lawson doesn’t have to travel, which can take its toll on a player’s health.

      “Williams says Lawson’s recovery is going slower than he had expected.”

      Boy, it’s a bad sign when the words “recovery” and “slower” appear in the same sentence. Even if he can play, there’s a substantial risk of re-injury. North Carolina can’t win a title without him. And if he’s not practicing now, and it doesn’t look like he’s going to be ready to go tomorrow, I highly doubt that he’s going to get to that 90-95% threshold required to get the Tar Heels over the hump.

      In my annual bracket column, I had North Carolina going through to the Final Four because all (or was it most?) of the signs pointed to Lawson being ready to go. If he’s hobbled, I don’t think North Carolina gets past Gonzaga in the Sweet Sixteen.

      It looks like I have to go change my picks…

      College Basketball, March Madness

      Bengals to take a look at Beanie Wells in first round?

      March 18, 2009 /

      According to the Dayton Daily News, the Bengals are believed to be high on Ohio State running back Chris “Beanie” Wells and could take him with the sixth overall pick.

      One impact player ranked high on the team’s list is Ohio State running back Chris “Beanie” Wells. The Bengals have a need for a playmaker at the running back position behind starter Cedric Benson and Wells is scheduled to visit the organization in Cincinnati the first week of April.

      Wells may have put himself back in the running as a potential Top 5 pick after an explosive performance at the school’s pro day on March 13, rebounding from a so-so showing at the Scouting Combine last month.

      The 6-foot-1, 235-pound Wells was clocked as low as 4.34 and as high as 4.42 in the 40-yard dash. I’m told that he also fared well during position drills, grabbing the attention of all 32 team representatives in attendance.

      The Seattle Seahawks with the No. 3 pick and Cleveland Browns at No. 5 have expressed interest in the running back. Other teams at top of the draft board expressing interest include Green Bay, Jacksonville, Denver and Cincinnati of course.

      Wells worked out privately for the Broncos on Tuesday, March 17. According to a source with knowledge of the situation, the workout went extremely well.

      Wells hasn’t showed any lingering affects from the injury he had early in the ’08 college season and he has absolutely blown away scouts in private workouts. He’s a big, strong back that can not only run effectively through the tackles, but also shows great speed in the open field.

      Surprisingly, there hasn’t been a lot of talk surrounding Wells so far. One reason could be the amount of depth there is at the running back position in this year’s draft. Georgia’s Knowshon Moreno, Pittsburgh’s LeSean “Shady” McCoy, Connecticut’s Donald Brown, N.C. State’s Andre Brown and Iowa’s Shonn Greene are all talented prospects that teams could land in any of the top three rounds.

      But out of that group, Wells still has the best combination of size, strength and speed. He shouldn’t be overlooked.

      NFL, NFL Draft

      Bears need dramatic upgrade at wide receiver

      March 18, 2009 /

      Earl BennettAccording to the Chicago Sun Times, the Bears are giving former third round pick Earl Bennett every opportunity to start at wide receiver opposite Devin Hester this season. Bennett, mind you, is the same dropped-prone receiver who didn’t catch one pass last year because he was inactive for seven of the 16 games and couldn’t beat out stalwarts Marty Booker, Rashied Davis and Brandon Lloyd on the depth chart.

      The Bears need to do something about their receiving corps and soon. Torry Holt has lost a step, but he would be an instant upgrade at the position and could serve as a tutor for guys like Hester and Bennett. Holt is apparently out of the country right now on vacation and won’t be visiting teams for the next couple days, but the Bears would be wise to get the 32-year old’s agent on the phone, like, now.

      The draft is also littered with receivers and while I certainly don’t advocate the Bears taking one in the first round (everything GM Jerry Angelo touches in the first round turns to rabbit turd anyway), prospects like Hakeem Nicks (North Carolina) and Brian Robiskie (Ohio State) should be there in the second.

      I had a chance to watch the scouting combine on the NFL Network in February and Robiskie was impressive. Out of all the receivers who worked out, Robiskie seemed to run the smoothest routes and was very fluid in his motions. He’s not the fastest prospsect (his 40 is a good but not great 4.51), but Robiskie is the son of an NFL assistant (Falcons’ wide receiver coach Terry Robiskie), so you know he’s received a fair amount of coaching throughout his playing career. The Ohio State product looks like one of the more polished receiver prospects in the draft.

      Whatever route the Bears want to take in acquiring a receiver doesn’t matter. But they dramatically need to upgrade the position this offseason because I highly doubt Hester and Bennett give quarterback Kyle Orton the best chance of succeeding.

      NFL, NFL Draft

      Team USA heading to WBC semis

      March 18, 2009 /

      Thanks to David Wright and Kevin Youkilis, Team USA is heading to the semis of the World Baseball Classic.

      David Wright delivered a game-winning single in the bottom of the ninth to propel Team USA past Puerto Rico and into the semis of the World Baseball Classic.

      Talent won out in the end, even though Team USA has constantly stepped on its own feet by trying to get everyone into the game and still not play matchups at all. Down 5-3 in the ninth, Team USA got back-to-back singles from Shane Victorino and Brian Roberts against J.C. Romero. Derek Jeter then grounded out, advancing only the lead runner. However, Roberts stole second base and Jimmy Rollins walked to load them, resulting in Romero’s departure. After Fernando Cabrera came in, Kevin Youkilis, who homered earlier, walked to force in a run, and Wright dumped a ball into right field to score two runs. It was his third hit of the game.

      I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t think that USA’s pitching staff would carry them this far. And really, the pitching hasn’t been that great (USA’s team ERA is 6.10) but guys like Wright, Roberts, Victorino, Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn and Jimmy Rollins have been killing the ball. Hopefully the bats stay alive and we can all see a Team USA gold medal.

      MLB

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