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      John Hollinger’s Draft Rater likes Lawson

      June 18, 2009 /

      Earlier in the day, I wrote about how Chad Ford is hearing that Ty Lawson is shooting up some draft boards, and now John Hollinger’s Draft Rater (where he takes college statistics and a few other metrics to predict a player’s production in the NBA) says that he’s the top player in this draft. Yes, he’s even ahead of Blake Griffin.

      Lawson, who is coming off an electric performance in leading North Carolina to the championship, grades out highly for several reasons: Although he’s short for a point guard, his shooting numbers (47.1 percent on 3-pointers), strong assist rate and microscopic turnover ratio (9.1, first among point guard prospects) all point to him as an NBA keeper.

      The Draft Rater puts Lawson slightly ahead of Griffin for first, but this doesn’t mean a team should take Lawson first. The standard error in the projections for point guards is higher than it is for big men, which means random noise could be putting Lawson ahead just as easily as on-the-court performance. If the consensus is that Griffin is the better player, I don’t think Lawson’s statistical record alone is strong enough evidence to refute it. Additionally, we’ve heard questions about Lawson’s work ethic and injuries.

      But the rating is emphatic enough for me to say Lawson should be at the top of the college point guard ladder, ahead of Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague & Co. (If you’re wondering about Ricky Rubio, I’ll have more on him next week.)

      Hollinger’s Draft Rater isn’t error-proof but it’s not a bad second opinion when trying to pick a player out of a group of two or more.

      Or when you’re trying to avoid a bust…

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      NBA, NBA Draft

      What is the class of 2006 worth?

      June 18, 2009 /

      Around this time last year, I tried to estimate the kind of contracts the big name players from the class of 2004 and 2005 would sign, and here’s how I fared:

      All in all, I think I did a pretty good job. Of the 12 players that signed a contract last summer, I correctly predicted the range for seven and was within $1.5 million for the other five. Granted, I underestimated what the Lakers would give Vujacic, but I find him so annoying that I have a tough time objectively determining his worth. (Though it should be noted that he didn’t do anything this season to justify $5.0 million per season.)

      This year, I’m going to list the top names from the class of ’06 to try to determine what kind of extension they’ll get if their current teams choose to lock them up this summer instead of letting them hit restricted free agency in 2010. (I’ll tackle the restricted free agents of the class of ’05 in my free agency preview, which will run on 6/29.)

      Due to the economy and the unwillingness of most owners to spend, the summer of 2009 promises to be tougher for free agents than years past, so we may see a few players stubbornness get the best of them. One executive predicted a “nuclear winter” of sorts, so at the very least, it will be interesting.

      So here are the top players from the class of ’06 and my best estimate of the kind of money they’ll command. I’ll list their age, Player Efficiency Rating (PER), along with a few comparables.

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      NBA, NBA Draft, Rumors & Gossip

      If Favre signs with Minnesota, will Jackson get the boot?

      June 18, 2009 /

      Vikings owner Zygi Wilf told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune that it’s up to Brett Favre whether or not Minnesota signs Brett Favre, so essentially the team is waiting on Brett Favre. (Brett Favre.)

      While Minnesota waits to hear whether or not Favre is healthy enough to come back (apparently he threw at a local high school recently and still had pain), Vikings beat writer Judd Zulgad wonders aloud if the team would release Tarvaris Jackson if good ol’ No. 4 comes aboard.

      In a recent chat, Zulgad said that he wouldn’t be surprised if Jackson got the axe if Favere were signed. The fourth year player is in his final year of his contract and the Vikings apparently don’t want to cut former USC QB John David Booty because they like his potential. Plus, the Vikes traded for Sage Rosenfels in the offseason, so that would leave Jackson on the outside looking in.

      Whether the Brett Favres sign the Vikings or not, it looks like Jackson’s time in Minnesota is running out. If the team still had confidence in him, they wouldn’t have traded for Rosenfels and wouldn’t be so hell bent on signing Favre if they thought Jackson could still have a bright future in Minnesota.

      Maybe Jackson should be secretly hoping for a release. He would certainly catch on somewhere and sometimes a change of scenery is exactly what a struggling player needs. He has always been talented, but he remains unpolished despite entering his fourth season. Maybe a different setting and a good coaching staff could get Jackson to realize his potential.

      Brett Favre.

      NFL

      Jefferson-for-Stoudemire, your dumb rumor of the day

      June 18, 2009 /

      Earlier today, the Boston Globe reported that the Suns and T-Wolves were working on a trade that would send Al Jefferson and the #6 pick to Phoenix for Amare Stoudemire.

      Hours later, that rumor was shot down.

      An NBA source said today that Minnesota forward-center Al Jefferson is not being traded to the Suns with the sixth overall pick for Suns All-Star forward Amare Stoudemire. An NBA executive told The Globe on Wednesday that the teams discussed the trade. But another source acknowledged the discussion, but also said the Suns were quickly turned down.

      This is the sort of rumor that just doesn’t pass the smell test. Forget the #6 pick, why would the T-Wolves trade Jefferson, who is already a 23/11 guy at the age of 24 and is locked into a pretty reasonable deal for four more years at the tune of $13.5 million per, for Stoudemire, a 26-year-old 21/8 guy who can opt out of his contract after the season and has already had microfracture and eye surgery in his career? I wouldn’t even make that deal straight up, much less throw in the #6 pick.

      Ridiculous.

      NBA, NBA Draft, News, Rumors & Gossip

      Ryan Leaf to turn himself in after being arrested at border

      June 18, 2009 /

      Customs agents arrested former NFL quarterback and colossal moron Ryan Leaf on Wednesday as he returned to the United States from Canada. He had been wanted in Texas for drug and burglary charges, posted $45,000 bond and will now return to Texas to turn himself in.

      What’s amazing (besides the fact that this guy was once considered a franchise NFL quarterback) is that he was picked up coming back into the United States. If he wanted to evade authorities, why wouldn’t he just take up shop in Canada and call it a day? Or better yet, how about he not try to steal prescription drugs from one of the players he used to coach at West Texas A&M by breaking into the player’s house? What an idiot.

      How does something like this happen? How does a guy go from being one of the best quarterback prospects to enter an NFL draft, to being wanted in the state of Texas for something as stupid as breaking into someone’s house in attempt to steal prescription drugs? It’s mind-boggling.

      Apparently he went and successfully completed drug rehab. Great – now a little jail time might do him some good. Dude needs to mellow out a little.

      NFL

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