Author: John Paulsen (Page 618 of 937)

John Hollinger’s Eastern Conference playoff odds

John Hollinger is ESPN’s numbers guy for the NBA, and he has a statistical formula that predicts the playoff odds for every NBA team. Here’s a look at the East:

1. Cleveland (98.9)
2. Boston (95.9)
3. Detroit (90.1)
4. Atlanta (88.8)
5. Philadelphia (67.7)
6. Miami (63.6)
7. Orlando (63.6)
8. Indiana (63.1)
============
9. Chicago (57.2)
10. Toronto (53.7)
11. Milwaukee (32.4)
12. New York (10.5)
13. New Jersey (7.6)
14. Charlotte (6.8)
15. Washington (0.2)

Things are obviously looking dire for the Wizards right now. They are 1-7 and will be without Gilbert Arenas for a while. It’s early, but unless they are able to put together some wins with the current lineup, it looks like they will indeed miss the playoffs this season.

With all that talent, I would be shocked if the Raptors miss the playoffs. Hollinger says they have a 54% chance, but with Jose Calderon, Chris Bosh and Jermaine O’Neal, I think it’s just a matter of time before Toronto gels and strings a few wins together. I suspect that Toronto will replace Indiana in the top eight. Chicago and Milwaukee are darkhorses – they need more consistent play and a healthy Kirk Hinrich and Michael Redd, respectively.

Interestingly, the Knicks are 6-5, but Hollinger says that they only have a 11% chance to make the postseason.

Correcting Rick Reilly, Part 1: Rick should stop trying to be funny

Regular readers might be familiar with my ongoing series, Correcting Bill Simmons. Now that I’m forcibly exposed to Rick Reilly’s back page column in ESPN The Mag, it’s time to start a new series with Reilly as the star.

This week, he wrote a somewhat touching piece about how Jay Cutler’s dealings with Type 1 diabetes has affected children all over the country. Reilly isn’t bad at the heart-warming stuff, but when he tries to be funny, he just comes off as stiff. Take this paragraph:

Shy and mop-haired, he led the league in shrugs. He looked like he had terminal influenza. The bags under his eyes had bags. And yet he’d sleep 10 hours at night and three more after practice. He lost 35 pounds in the 2007 season alone. He couldn’t concentrate. He was starting to look like the biggest bust since Lindsay Lohan. And that’s when he found out he had diabetes. Or rather, it had him.

All right, there are two problems here. The first is the statement that Cutler was a bust when he hit the league. I don’t know if Reilly is talking about Cutler’s first or second season, but he played pretty well even prior to getting diagnosed with diabetes. In 2006, he played in five games and threw for an average of 200 yards, 1.8 TD and 1.0 INT. In 2007, he played in all 16 games and finished with 3497 yards, 20 TD and 14 INT. What about these numbers says “bust”?

When I found out that a pre-diagnosed Cutler was still able to be a decent fantasy QB despite losing 35 pounds and much of his strength, I put him at the top of my sleeper QB list heading into 2008. Needless to say, that has paid off.

Then there’s the comparison to Lindsay Lohan.

He was starting to look like the biggest bust since Lindsay Lohan.

What does this mean? Is he saying that Lohan was a bust in that she was destined for big things but has since fallen from grace? Or is he saying that she has big knockers? If it’s the former, I don’t know how relevant it is to refer to actors as “busts.” They weren’t drafted in the first round and they weren’t given big contracts before playing in the big leagues. If it’s the latter – which is far less likely considering Reilly’s typically PG-rated fare – I could think of a dozen well-endowed starlets that would make for a better joke. (There’s Pamela Anderson, Scarlett Johansson, Jennifer Love Hewitt, Penelope Cruz, Salma Hayak, Jennifer Tilly, Catherine Bell, just to name a few.)

Then there’s this attempt at humor, referencing Cutler’s regular blood tests, which require him to prick his fingers over and over…

What Cutler wants to be is a normal QB, but he never will be. From now on, he’ll have more holes than a Jessica Simpson movie.

Really? More holes than a Jessica Simpson movie? Reilly can’t find another “actress” to kick around. Simpson hasn’t been in a major motion picture in two years (2006’s “Employee of the Month”), which I haven’t seen. She was in “Dukes of Hazzard” in 2005, but I don’t really remember it being filled with plot holes. (It was just a bad, bad movie.)

Maybe Reilly should take a shot at Kate Hudson, who has been in no fewer than six horrid romantic comedies in the last five years. I’m thinking of “How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days,” “Alex & Emma,” “Raising Helen,” “You, Me & Dupree,” “Fool’s Gold” and “My Best Friend’s Girl.” If you’re a big-wig Hollywood studio exec and you’re about to greenlight a bad rom-com, Kate Hudson should be on speed dial.

This is just a case of Rick Reilly trying to be Bill Simmons. He thinks that if he shoehorns some pop culture reference in as a joke that it will make his stuff seem fresh and funny. But it just makes him look tired.

He should stick to the sappy, sentimental stuff. The world only has one Bill Simmons, and that’s plenty.

What would a college football playoff look like this year?

First, my assumptions…

There will be an eight-team playoff, with the six BCS-conference champs getting an automatic bid. If a conference champ has three or more losses on the season, they give up their automatic bid and it becomes an at-large bid.

Seeds and at-large bids are distributed based on the current BCS standings. Certainly, these standings can be tweaked, but they are fine for now. If an at-large team has a better BCS ranking than a conference champion, they will get a higher seed.

There will be three rounds of playoffs. The first round will be held at the home stadium of the higher-seeded team. The semifinals and the finals will rotate amongst the four BCS cities (Miami, Pasadena, Tempe and New Orleans).

And off we go…

#8 Cincinnati @ #1 Alabama

#5 Oklahoma @ #4 Florida

#7 Penn State @ #2 Texas Tech

#6 USC @ #3 Texas

Unfortunately, #7-ranked Utah wouldn’t make the cut because #19 Cincinnati finished with just two losses (assuming they win out, of course) and #8 Penn State won the Big Ten with just one loss. The Utes would have a shot to move up with a win over BYU along with a loss by one or more of the teams ahead of them.

There were three at-large bids (since the ACC winner had at least three losses) and those bids went to Texas, Florida and Oklahoma.

Of course, as the season winds down, the BCS rankings will stay fluid, so we’ll re-visit this potential playoff schedule once the regular season is over.

So how does it look?

Surprise, surprise…the Rockets are nicked up again

Tracy McGrady has a sore knee. Yesterday, he proclaimed that he was probably going to have to shut it down, but he was able to practice today and is listed as questionable for Wednesday’s game.

Yao Ming has a foot injury, but the x-rays were negative, so he should be able to play.

Ron Artest sprained his ankle, but should be able to go.

As part of our 2008 NBA Preview, I wrote the following about the Rockets…

Keep Your Eye On: The Rockets’ injury report
If T-Mac, Yao Ming and Ron Artest can all play 75+ games and are healthy for the playoffs, this team will be very competitive. But as history has shown us, that is a HUGE “if.” Yao hasn’t played more than 57 games in any of the last three seasons and McGrady is averaging 61 games played over the same span. So the Rockets can’t really hope that the duo will stay healthy, they just have to hope that whatever injuries T-Mac and Yao do sustain aren’t of the season-ending variety.

The Rockets were a popular preseason pick to make some serious noise come playoff time, but the team needs its three stars to be healthy at the end of the season. Rockets fans surely have their fingers crossed, but already each star has his own nagging injury. It’s going to be interesting to see if Houston can stay healthy all season.

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