Pay attention! Cavs/Celtics tonight

The Celtics are a game back of the Cavs and are still without the services of Kevin Garnett, but they’ll have home court advantage tonight when they host Cleveland in the third of four regular season meetings between the two teams.

The Cavs have won four straight and nine of their last ten, while the Celtics have split their last four, with losses to Detroit at home (ouch!) and to the Clippers in L.A. (double-ouch!). They are 4-3 without Garnett (if you count the game he was injured) and it’s unfortunate that he isn’t able to play in this crucial matchup.

What’s at stake? Well, since KG is out, the C’s have a built in excuse if they lose, so the psychological impact won’t be great (unless, of course, Boston can pull out a win without one of its stars). So far, the home team has won each matchup this season with the Celtics winning back in October and the Cavs rolling at home in January.

Home court is huge in the playoffs, so this game is doubly important. It’s one thing to win a game, but it’s another to win and hang a loss on your biggest rival for the #1 seed.

Tip-off is at 8 PM on ESPN.

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John Hollinger’s Eastern Conference playoff odds

John Hollinger is ESPN’s numbers guy for the NBA, and he has a statistical formula that predicts the playoff odds for every NBA team. Here’s a look at the East:

1. Cleveland (98.9)
2. Boston (95.9)
3. Detroit (90.1)
4. Atlanta (88.8)
5. Philadelphia (67.7)
6. Miami (63.6)
7. Orlando (63.6)
8. Indiana (63.1)
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9. Chicago (57.2)
10. Toronto (53.7)
11. Milwaukee (32.4)
12. New York (10.5)
13. New Jersey (7.6)
14. Charlotte (6.8)
15. Washington (0.2)

Things are obviously looking dire for the Wizards right now. They are 1-7 and will be without Gilbert Arenas for a while. It’s early, but unless they are able to put together some wins with the current lineup, it looks like they will indeed miss the playoffs this season.

With all that talent, I would be shocked if the Raptors miss the playoffs. Hollinger says they have a 54% chance, but with Jose Calderon, Chris Bosh and Jermaine O’Neal, I think it’s just a matter of time before Toronto gels and strings a few wins together. I suspect that Toronto will replace Indiana in the top eight. Chicago and Milwaukee are darkhorses – they need more consistent play and a healthy Kirk Hinrich and Michael Redd, respectively.

Interestingly, the Knicks are 6-5, but Hollinger says that they only have a 11% chance to make the postseason.

Offseason Blueprint: Miami Heat

Let’s see, Miami drafted their franchise-changing player, Dwyane Wade, in 2003, won a title in 2006, traded away their aging, overpaid center for a talented forward that’s in his prime, and now they have the #2 pick in the draft with a chance at another franchise-changing player?

I guess the lesson here is that if you’re going to tank… tank hard.

I’m not saying that the Heat planned all of this. They certainly went into the season hoping to eventually make a run in the Eastern Conference Playoffs, but a poor start and a series of nagging injuries to Wade forced the Heat’s hand. They found a desperate trade partner in the Suns and rid themselves of the overpaid and under motivated Shaquille O’Neal, landing an All-Star caliber forward (Shawn Marion) in the return. Now their consolation prize will likely be either Derrick Rose or Michael Beasley, whomever the Bulls don’t take. How convenient is it that either player should fit nicely alongside Wade and Marion?

Suddenly, the Heat’s short-term prospects are looking pretty good. Who would have said that six months ago?

The Heat have only five players signed past next season: Wade, Mark Blount, Udonis Haslem, Marcus Banks and Daequan Cook, assuming they exercise their option on his rookie contract. Haslem’s contract is very reasonable for what he brings to the table. Banks, who quickly fell out of favor in Phoenix, actually played pretty well for the Heat, averaging 9.5 points and 3.0 assists, while shooting 51.2% from the field and 40.5% from long range. If the team ends up with Beasley, it’s conceivable that a Banks/Wade backcourt could work. If the team drafts Rose, Banks could make a good backup.

The conventional wisdom is that Marion will likely exercise his player option, as he’s not going to be able to get that kind of money ($17.2 million) in the open market. This will allow the Heat to see if the Wade/Marion/rookie-to-be-named-later combo has potential. If it’s a disaster, they may be able to move Marion for a disgruntled or out of favor star before the trade deadline. If it looks like it’s going to work, then they can work out a more reasonable deal for Marion’s services.

Given the type of season they had (and the fact that they had Shaq’s albatross-like contract hanging over their heads for a few more seasons), the Heat are sitting pretty right now. They just simply have to sit back, draft whoever is there at #2, and maybe try to find a defensive-minded big man to man the middle for the mid-level.

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