What’s more Improbable: a No-hitter or no No-hitters?

As I’m sure you’ve heard by now, Johan Santana threw the first no-hitter in New York Mets history on June 1. It took the Mets 51 seasons and 8,020 games to get their first no-no, so it’s been a long time coming. Believe me, prior to Friday a significant portion of Mets fans counted down from 27 until the opposing team got their first hit every single game. I know I did.

A no-hitter is a rarity. It’s an unbelievable attraction that can spark a team, lift a fan base, and give meaning to an entire season. Just listen for Ron Darling’s yelp when you watch Johan get the final strike. As far as I’m concerned, my team won the World Series on Friday. But when you’ve been playing as long as the Mets have is it more improbable that they finally got a no-hitter or that it took until now to get it?

Ironically enough, Baseball Prospectus published an article about the unlikelihood of the Mets not having a no-hitter just three days before Johan’s occurred. BP used a (relatively) simple equation to calculate the probability and ended up with this: “Between the birth of the Mets in 1962 and May 27th, 2012, there were 209,764 starts made by major-league pitchers, with 131 ending up as no-hitters. This gives us a p(no-hitter) of .000625.” Based on those odds as well as a more complicated model used by Rob Neyer and Bill James, the Mets should have thrown five no-hitters through their first 8,008 games. Should.

But looking past the raw numbers is when the real fun (or agony) begins. Major League Baseball officially recognizes 275 no-hitters between 1876 and 2012, including Johan’s. Over the same time period, a player has hit for the cycle 293 times, which makes the two feats near equally common. The Mets have never had a problem with the latter accomplishment. Ten players have hit for the cycle while wearing a Mets uniform, the most recent being Scott Hairston on April 27.

Furthermore, of the 275 no-hitters in history, 24 were thrown by pitchers who played for the Mets at some point in their careers. Most notable is Nolan Ryan, who threw seven no-hitters after leaving the team, but Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, David Cone, Mike Scott, and Phillip Humber each got one after their Mets career ended. Additionally, Al Leiter, Don Cardwell, Brett Saberhagen, Dock Ellis, Kenny Rogers, John Candelaria, Scott Erickson, and Dean Chance threw one, and Warren Spahn two no-hitters before coming to the Mets. Just to pile it on, Hideo Nomo threw two no-hitters as well, one before and one after playing for the Mets. Let’s just keep piling it on: A.J. Burnett, who was drafted by the Mets (although he never played for them), threw a no-no in 2001, while Alejandro Pena and Octavio Dotel combined with others for no-hitters in 1991 and 2003 respectively; which, of course, was after they’d left the Mets.

But wait, there’s more! Do you know who the Mets traded Nolan Ryan for? Of course not, because it’s Jim Fregosi, who had an astonishing five home runs and 32 RBI in 146 games over a season and a half with the team. Young Met superstars Gooden and Cone pitched their no-hitters for the cross-town rival Yankees. Perhaps most egregious of all, Tom Seaver, who pitched for the Mets for over a decade and was accurately nicknamed “The Franchise” (he remains the only player wearing a Mets hat on his Hall of Fame plaque), threw his no-hitter in 1978, his first full season on another team.

Don’t worry, I’m still not done. The Mets have collected 35 one-hitters over the years. Seaver had five of those, and three were no-hit bids that he lost in the ninth inning. Damn you Jimmy Qualls! The team’s most recent one-hitter came from R.A. Dickey on August 13, 2010. Whoever got the lone hit in that game? Why, starting pitcher Cole Hamels of course. Yes, you read that right. Starting pitcher Cole Hamels.

Just one more story. This whole drought/half-century of misery thing could have been avoided but for a Joe Amalfitano single in the Mets’ very first season. In June 1962, rookie pitcher Al Jackson gave up that single in the first inning of a double header before “settling down.” He  went the next nine innings without giving up a hit. The New York Times headline the following day: “A Single in First Spoils No-Hitter.”

There you have it, a much-abridged version of our tale of anguish. So please don’t roll your eyes every time you read that the Mets “finally got a no-hitter,” even when “finally” is in italics. And don’t you dare say the team (and its fans) didn’t earn or deserve it, even if Carlos Beltran’s ball did hit the line.

Follow the Scores Report editors on Twitter @clevelandteams and @bullzeyedotcom.

Mikey’s MLB power rankings

We’re about 40% through the current major league baseball season. That means we’re about to enter the warmest part of the season both on the field and in the standings. Contenders will begin to emerge and pretenders will begin to fade if they haven’t faded already. So we thought it was a good time to have our first installment of MLB power rankings…..

1. Tampa Bay Rays (41-26)—Amazingly, the Rays have a better road record (23-11) than a home record (18-15). Also amazingly is how they jumped out of the gate and have stayed in front—with their usual formula of strong pitching (3.55 ERA leads the AL), speed (major league best 76 steals) and defense.

2. New York Yankees (41-26)—Don’t look now, but the Yankees have caught up to Tampa. They just have too much talent for the Rays to keep them down all season.

3. Boston Red Sox (41-28)—Struggling to keep pace with the Rays and Yanks, but now just one game back and right in the thick of it. Does anyone else feel bad for the Orioles and Blue Jays?

4. Atlanta Braves (40-28)—A huge surprise to be leading the NL East on June 19, but not as big a surprise as the Phillies sitting in third place.

5. Minnesota Twins (38-29)—Ignited by a new ball park and a fat new contract for their superstar catcher Joe Mauer, the Twins are going to run away with the AL Central because no one else wants to.

6. San Diego Padres (39-28)—Definitely the surprise of the first two months, Bud Black has this Padres team over-achieving. They recently relinquished first place, but took it right back, and the Padres may stay in the hunt because of how well they fare in those close, low-scoring games.

7. New York Mets (39-28)—Here’s another shocker. The Mets were picked by most pundits to be a fourth or fifth place team. And here they are battling the Braves for NL East supremacy. But the biggest surprise has been the starting rotation, where guys like Mike Pelfrey, RA Dickey and Jon Niese are reminding Mets fans of the Seaver/Koosman/Matlack days. And we haven’t even mentioned Johan Santana.

8. Los Angeles Dodgers (38-29)—They’ve quietly made their move from bottom feeders to frontrunners, and they have the talent to stay there. But seriously, Manny Ramirez has SEVEN home runs on June 19? Hmmmm.

9. Texas Rangers (39-28)—Everyone thought the Mariners would be the team to beat in the AL West this year, but they have one of the worst records in baseball at 26-41. Meanwhile, the Rangers are riding a frightening middle of the lineup (Guerrero/Hamilton/Cruz) to the division lead

10. San Francisco Giants (37-29)—With Barry Zito looking like his old self, this team is extremely dangerous with him, all-world Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez.

Tie 10. Detroit Tigers (37-29)--A 7-game winning streak has them right here and only a half-game back of the Twins.

Randy Johnson wins No. 300 in front of rain soaked crowd

It was a moment that had been hyped up since the start of the season, but due to Mother Nature (that whore), Randy Johnson won his 300th career game in front of a rain soaked crowd of about 10 people.

Nevertheless, he’s now a part of the illustrious 300-win club.

Johnson pitched six innings on Thursday, allowing just two hits and one unearned run in the Giants’ 5-1 victory over the Nationals. He got a fair amount of help from his bullpen, who pitched three scoreless innings in a steady rain to preserve the Giants’ lead, which had been 2-1 until the ninth inning when San Fran scratched across three more insurance runs.

With the win, the Big Unit became only the 24th pitcher to get to 300 victories and is the second-oldest pitcher to achieve the milestone. He’s also the first pitcher to get his 299th and 300th win in consecutive starts since Tom Seaver did it in 1985.

One moment that’ll surely be overlooked from this game is an amazing defensive play by Giants second baseman Emmanuel Burriss in the fifth inning. With the Giants up 2-0, Johnson gave up a hit to Elijah Dukes, who advanced to second on a passed ball the very next batter.

Johnson then walked Austin Kearns, which brought the leading run to the plate in Ronnie Belliard. Belliard then scorched a pitch that ricocheted sharply off the mound and looked to be heading into center field for a base hit. But Burriss made a diving stop and flipped the ball with only his glove to shortstop Edgar Renteria, who got the force out at second and then completed the double play by throwing out Belliard at first. Johnson then got Will Nieves to ground out to Burriss to end the inning and preserve the Giants’ 2-0 lead.

Even though nothing can take the moment away from the Big Unit, it’s a shame that not more people were in attendance to enjoy the victory. That said, his family was front and center and that’s all that matters. It’s a fantastic milestone for Johnson, a player that never cheated the game. (At least as far as we know, that is.)

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