Parity has ruled the NFL for over a decade but this might be the most up-for-grabs season in recent memory. There doesn’t appear to be a clear-cut favorite for several divisions and while the NFC is somewhat top-heavy, the AFC is a crapshoot.
Tag: Super Bowl Predictions
Technically the Giants aren’t favored for Super Bowl XLVI but they might as well be.
New York doesn’t have the most marketable player (that would be Tom Brady) or the most wins between the two teams this season, but the Giants are the hotter squad and have already proven that they won’t cower to New England in any situation. They have the pass rush to once again slay Brady, a vastly underrated passing game and a quarterback in Eli Manning that doesn’t get nearly the respect he deserves for what he does for this New York team.
From a betting standpoint things look awfully good for the Giants as well. They’re 5-1 against the spread in their last six games versus the Patriots, 8-0 ATS in their last eight playoff games as an underdog and 8-1 ATS in their last nine playoff games overall. New England, meanwhile, is 1-7 against the number in its last eight playoff games and 1-6 ATS in its last seven playoff games as a favorite.
Every bone in my body says that the Giants are going to win tonight. But I don’t think they will.
I think the Giants have managed to become overconfident the past few weeks and an overconfident Giants team is a losing Giants team. I think Rob Gronkowski is healthier than people think and he’ll have a big game. I think Bill Belichick will once again take away what an opponent does best and in this case, that’s the Giants’ passing game. I think Tom Brady will have one of those Tom Brady-esq games where he throws for 375 yards and three touchdowns all while being unstoppable in the fourth quarter. I think the Patriots will win.
I’m siding with my gut over my head: Patriots 23, Giants 20.
When I saw that oddsmakers had made the Packers 2.5-point favorites for Super Bowl XLV, my immediate reaction was: “Pittsburgh’s an underdog? Ha! Give me the Steelers…you’re welcome.”
Why wouldn’t you take the Steelers on Sunday? They’ve played in two Super Bowls the past six years and won them both. They have a more experienced head coach who oversees a more experienced quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger is 2-0 in the “big one” and thanks to Dick LeBeau’s guidance, Pittsburgh’s defense often resembles an immovable force.
But then I got to thinking: Tom Brady lost in the Super Bowl, as did Peyton Manning and Brett Favre. Bill Belichick has lost in the championship, as has Mike Holmgren, Bill Cowher and even Tom Landry.
Experience flies out the window once that ball has been kicked off the tee at the start of the game. What football essentially comes down to is execution, avoiding mistakes and beating the guy across from you.
Both of these teams can execute. Both of these teams can limit mistakes and both of these teams have the players on each side of the ball that can win individual battles. Which team will accomplish those three feats on Sunday is anyone’s guess, and that’s the great thing about this particular matchup – it’s so even.
But when you get down to the brass tacks, the Steelers have a big problem along their offensive line. Losing Maurkice Pouncey hurts, but having two offensive tackles that are below average pass-blockers is a bigger problem when you consider the Packers finished second in the league in sacks. Granted, Pittsburgh finished first in that category but I have more faith in Green Bay’s O-line protecting Aaron Rodgers than I do the Steelers’ front five protecting Big Ben.
I’m not a NFL coordinator and therefore won’t act like I hold the secrets on how either team can win Super Bowl XLV. (Wait a minute – I don’t hold any secrets? What the fu…)
When it comes down to it, putting together a solid game plan is only half the battle. The players still have to execute and avoid mistakes and a great scheme won’t save a team that turns the ball over and commits penalties. But here are five ways the Packers can get the upper hand on the Steelers and take home the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday. (Don’t worry Pittsburgh fan, I’ll do one for the Steelers, too.)
1. Get the Steelers’ base defense off the field.
Mike McCarthy is a smart guy but he’s not going to throw anything at Dick LeBeau that the defensive coordinator hasn’t already seen in his 35-plus years of coaching. That’s why it’s important that McCarthy doesn’t overthink things. Yes, James Starks gives Green Bay’s offense more balance. But James Starks isn’t going to win Super Bowl XLV – not when Pittsburgh is allowing just 61.6 yards per game. The strength of the Steelers’ defense is its front seven. When LeBeau can keep his base on the field, he can disguise his pressure and be as aggressive as he wants to be. When opposing teams have had success against Pittsburgh, they’ve forced the Steelers into their nickel package early. That’s why the use of three-and-four receiver sets is vital for the Packers. Aaron Rodgers has an outstanding release and he knows how to get the ball out of his hand quickly. Keeping a running back in to block will be key, as LeBeau will probably drum up pressure in efforts to keep Rodgers out of rhythm. But if the Packers can keep nickel back William Gay on the field and successfully attack Bryant McFadden (who was burned by Braylon Edwards earlier this season and who also has been dealing with an abdominal injury), then Green Bay should have plenty of success offensively. They certainly have the weapons to attack Pittsburgh’s secondary.
2. Shut down Mendenhall.
Excuse the simplicity of this point but it’s important: the Packers must stop Rashard Mendenhall because quite frankly, he may be the key to whether or not Pittsburgh wins on Sunday. When Mendenhall rushed for over 80 yards this season, the Steelers were 6-1 (which includes their win over the Jets in the AFC title game). In their four losses this year, Mendenhall rushed for only 79 (vs. Ravens), 71 (Saints), 50 (Patriots) and 99 yards (Jets). And in those losses, only once did he carry the ball over 20 times (against Baltimore in Week 4). Everyone saw what happened when the Packers took a two-touchdown lead against the Falcons in the Divisional Round: Michael Turner was rendered useless and Atlanta’s offense became one-dimensional. Green Bay’s run defense ranks a respectable 11th, but they’re allowing 107.7 yards per game this season. If Mendenhall rushes for a C-note, then the Packers could be in trouble because that could mean that the Steelers have control of the tempo. But take Mendenhall out (either with good offensive play or stout run defense) and Green Bay may win easily.
I fully believe that I would have a better shot of winning the lotto, reading a woman’s mind and fully comprehending what the Coen brothers were trying to convey in “No Country for Old Men” than predicting what will happen over the final three weeks of the 2008 NFL Season but I’m going to give it a shot anyway. (Seriously, that badass character in “No Country” just walks away at the end and we have no idea what happens to him?)
Here’s what we know: The Titans are the AFC South Champions, the Giants won the NFC East and the Cardinals have already claimed the NFC West.
Now grab your Advil because this is what we don’t know:
Three teams still have a shot to win the NFC South (Buccaneers, Panthers and Falcons), as well as the AFC East (Jets, Dolphins and Patriots). Barring a complete collapse, the Broncos will win the AFC West while Steelers have a slim one-game lead over the Ravens in the AFC North and the Vikings have a one-game lead over the Bears in the NFC North.
These teams are still alive for Wild Card berths in the AFC: Ravens (9-4); Colts (9-4); Jets (8-5); Dolphins (8-5), Patriots (8-5) and Chargers (5-8). (San Diego still has a shot because Denver hasn’t closed out the AFC West, but we can pretty much write the Chargers off at this point.)
These teams are still alive for Wild Card berths in the NFC: Buccaneers (9-3); Panthers (9-3); Falcons (8-5); Cowboys (8-5); Eagles (7-5-1); Bears (7-6); Saints (7-6); Redskins (7-6); Packers (5-8). (As of this writing, the Panthers and Buccaneers still have to play on Monday night, with the winner taking a one-game lead in the NFC South.)
Now that all of that has been sorted out, it’s time for the fun to begin. I will stick my neck out for all fans to chop it off and predict the rest of the NFL season – playoffs included. Get your pen and paper ready to jot down notes. The over/under of times someone calls me a moron in the comment section has officially been set at 47.
AFC Playoff Projection:
1. Titans
2. Steelers
3. Patriots
4. Broncos
5. Colts
6. Ravens
– The Titans and Steelers have two of the nastiest defenses in the league and should each win two of their final three games, although the Ravens have a shot at leapfrogging Pittsburgh in AFC North with a win against the Men of Steel this Sunday. While it’s tempting to take the feel-good Ravens to beat the Steelers, Pittsburgh’s defense will give Joe Flacco trouble again, just as it did in the second half of their meeting (a 23-20 overtime win for the Steelers) in Week 4 earlier this year.
– The Jets are imploding after losing two straight and they’re going to lose one more game the rest of the way (at Seattle in Week 15). But they should beat Buffalo this Sunday to get to 9-5 and following my predicted loss to the Seahawks, beat Miami in the season final at the Meadowlands. But the Patriots are going to win out and claim the AFC East at 11-5. They’re at hapless Oakland on Sunday, will host an Arizona team that hasn’t won a meaningful game on the road all season, and finish up the year at Buffalo against a Bills team that has scored 6 points in two weeks. You can just read the headlines in Boston now: Brady Who?
– The Broncos just need one more win to wrap up the AFC West, which they’ll get at home against the Bills in Week 16, if not Week 15 in Carolina.
– The Colts will be the most dangerous team in the playoffs. Not only have they won six in a row, but they could win nine in a row before it’s all said and done because they host the Lions this Sunday, play Jacksonville on the road and host a Tennessee team at the end of the year that could be resting starters. There’s a chance Indy could claim a Wild Card spot at 12-4 or 11-5.
– The Ravens host the Steelers and are at Dallas before hosting the Jaguars to end the season. They might lose two of their final three games, but they’ll beat Jacksonville and make the postseason at 10-6.
NFC Playoff Projection:
1. Giants
2. Buccaneers
3. Cardinals
4. Bears
5. Panthers
6. Falcons
– The Giants’ loss Sunday against the Eagles was a setback, but a small setback. Their final three games aren’t gimmies though – at Dallas, vs. Carolina, at Minnesota. But they should win two of their final three games, which would give them home field advantage throughout the postseason. They’ve got two major question marks though: Will Plaxico Burress’s situation be a distraction and will Brandon Jacobs be 100%? (He suffered a knee injury in Sunday’s loss vs. Philly.)
– Tampa could very easily lose to the Panthers on Monday night and next week against the Falcons in Atlanta, but they’ll win against the Chargers and Raiders at the end of the year to get to 12-4 or 11-5 and steal the No. 2 seed away from Carolina. That said, the defense will continue to carry this team but the offense has to get drastically better in the red zone.
– The Cardinals are in and could easily take the No. 2 seed, but I see them losing to New England in Week 15 and even if they beat the Vikings this Sunday and the Seahawks Week 17, they would only be 10-6 and therefore a game or two behind Tampa or Carolina.
– Flip a coin between the Vikings and Bears because they both have similar odds of winning the division. But I’ll give the nod to Chicago because they could potentially win out as they host the Saints and Packers the next two weeks before playing the Texans on the road. Plus Minnesota faces a lot of uncertainty with the pending suspensions of Pat and Kevin Williams, and now Gus Frereotte has back issues. I don’t see Tarvaris Jackson winning two of the Vikings final three games (at Arizona, vs. Atlanta, vs. NY Giants) if he had to. But trust me, this isn’t resounding support for the Bears, because they could easily lose two of their final three games, which would give Minnesota the division. But I’m taking a shot on the kids from Chi-Town.
– The Panthers could beat the Bucs on Monday, but their final three games are tough – vs. Denver, at NY Giants, at New Orleans. And considering their defense isn’t playing particularly well right now, the Broncos and Saints could light up the scoreboard. Still, this is a playoff team and one that has made some noise in the postseason the past couple of years.
– The Falcons need to prove they’re a true playoff contender by beating Tampa next Sunday at home. Because after that, they face a possibly depleted Vikings team in Minnesota and then host the Rams to wrap up the year – two winnable games. If they win two of their final three, they should be in because Dallas’s remaining schedule is brutal, while the Eagles, Redskins and Saints are still a full game back. But make no mistake – Atlanta put itself in a rough position by losing to New Orleans on Sunday.
Wild Card Playoff Predictions:
Colts over Broncos
Patriots over Ravens
Cardinals over Falcons
Panthers over Bears
Divisional Predictions:
Colts over Titans
Steelers over Patriots
Giants over Panthers
Buccaneers over Cardinals
AFC Championship Game: Steelers over Colts
NFC Championship Game: Giants over Bucs
Super Bowl: Giants vs. Steelers
It’s a little boring to predict a No. 1 vs. a No. 2 seed to meet in the Super Bowl, but I’m going with the two best defenses in the league. The Steelers have some glaring issues, mainly on the offensive line and with Ben Roethlisberger’s penchant for hanging onto the ball too long in the pocket. But Pittsburgh and New York are nasty environments to play in come January and again, I’m taking defense to trump all.
All right, your turn. Ready…aim…fire with your comments.
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