Five ways the Packers beat the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV
I’m not a NFL coordinator and therefore won’t act like I hold the secrets on how either team can win Super Bowl XLV. (Wait a minute – I don’t hold any secrets? What the fu…)
When it comes down to it, putting together a solid game plan is only half the battle. The players still have to execute and avoid mistakes and a great scheme won’t save a team that turns the ball over and commits penalties. But here are five ways the Packers can get the upper hand on the Steelers and take home the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday. (Don’t worry Pittsburgh fan, I’ll do one for the Steelers, too.)
1. Get the Steelers’ base defense off the field.
Mike McCarthy is a smart guy but he’s not going to throw anything at Dick LeBeau that the defensive coordinator hasn’t already seen in his 35-plus years of coaching. That’s why it’s important that McCarthy doesn’t overthink things. Yes, James Starks gives Green Bay’s offense more balance. But James Starks isn’t going to win Super Bowl XLV – not when Pittsburgh is allowing just 61.6 yards per game. The strength of the Steelers’ defense is its front seven. When LeBeau can keep his base on the field, he can disguise his pressure and be as aggressive as he wants to be. When opposing teams have had success against Pittsburgh, they’ve forced the Steelers into their nickel package early. That’s why the use of three-and-four receiver sets is vital for the Packers. Aaron Rodgers has an outstanding release and he knows how to get the ball out of his hand quickly. Keeping a running back in to block will be key, as LeBeau will probably drum up pressure in efforts to keep Rodgers out of rhythm. But if the Packers can keep nickel back William Gay on the field and successfully attack Bryant McFadden (who was burned by Braylon Edwards earlier this season and who also has been dealing with an abdominal injury), then Green Bay should have plenty of success offensively. They certainly have the weapons to attack Pittsburgh’s secondary.
2. Shut down Mendenhall.
Excuse the simplicity of this point but it’s important: the Packers must stop Rashard Mendenhall because quite frankly, he may be the key to whether or not Pittsburgh wins on Sunday. When Mendenhall rushed for over 80 yards this season, the Steelers were 6-1 (which includes their win over the Jets in the AFC title game). In their four losses this year, Mendenhall rushed for only 79 (vs. Ravens), 71 (Saints), 50 (Patriots) and 99 yards (Jets). And in those losses, only once did he carry the ball over 20 times (against Baltimore in Week 4). Everyone saw what happened when the Packers took a two-touchdown lead against the Falcons in the Divisional Round: Michael Turner was rendered useless and Atlanta’s offense became one-dimensional. Green Bay’s run defense ranks a respectable 11th, but they’re allowing 107.7 yards per game this season. If Mendenhall rushes for a C-note, then the Packers could be in trouble because that could mean that the Steelers have control of the tempo. But take Mendenhall out (either with good offensive play or stout run defense) and Green Bay may win easily.
3. Win the line of scrimmage defensively.
The main reason the Ravens built a 21-7 halftime lead in the Divisional Round is because their defensive line was beating Pittsburgh’s O-line like a rusted, old Chevy. Cory Redding’s 13-yard fumble return for a touchdown at the end of the first quarter was set up when Terrell Suggs beat Flozell Adams around the edge. (It also helped that nobody thought to jump on the loose ball, even though no whistle had been blown.) Ben Roethlisberger is skilled at buying himself more time by moving around the pocket but if he constantly has to do it because Clay Matthews and B.J. Raji are in his face, then he’ll eventually make a mistake. The Packers have a serious advantage in the trenches now that Maurkice Pouncey isn’t playing. Doug Legursky is a fine backup, but that’s a matchup that Raji has to win. Likewise for Matthews, who provides a mismatch against either Adams or Jonathan Scott, who are below average pass blockers. It’s important that the Packers’ rushers don’t bite on Big Ben’s pump fakes. He’ll use them to buy himself extra time and hang defenders out to dry.
4. Stay Aggressive.
As John Paulsen pointed out a couple of weeks ago, Mike McCarthy has a tendency to take his foot off the gas when his team takes a lead. He did against the Eagles and kept Philadelphia in the game, although he learned his lesson the following week and Green Bay cruised to any easy win over the Falcons. He tried to stay aggressive against Chicago, even though the Bears’ defense played well after the first quarter. The bottom line is that McCarthy can’t rest on his laurels if the Packers build a lead. I can see him trying to force the running game in the third or fourth quarter when he should be keeping the game in the hands of Aaron Rodgers. Even though James Starks has provided their offense with more balance, McCarthy can’t forget what brought him to the dance: Rodgers and his passing game.
5. Continue to play well along the O-line.
The Packers’ offensive line has its hands full with the likes of James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley, but they’re no pushovers either. Josh Sitton was one of the best guards in the league this season and didn’t allow a single sack. Rookie Bryan Bulaga was beaten badly by Miami’s Cameron Wake earlier in the year, but he’s been solid ever since. Perhaps Green Bay’s biggest concern is that Chad Clifton doesn’t get injured. When he was replaced by T.J. Lang for a couple of series in the NFC title game, Julius Peppers took over. But all things considered, Clifton is healthy and should be rested after not playing for two weeks. As mentioned in point No. 1, McCarthy would also be wise to leave a running back in for protection, especially when the Packers use three-and-four receiver sets.
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I didn’t see anything about safteys in there . . . Are the Packers going to do like the Jets and completely avoid Polomalu? Are the Steelers going to test out the Packers backfield early? (I think yes.)
And do the Steelers have an answer for the Packers
?I thought about mixing in a point about Polamalu but it didn’t fit and besides, yes, I think GB will largely stay away from his side or try to throw underneath him.
I’m going to write the Steelers’ “5 ways they will beat the Packers” post today and talk about how they can attack Green Bay’s defensive backfield. (Is that the backfield you were talking about testing?) And I hate that jumbo package that GB runs. I don’t see the point in lining up three running backs in the backfield so close to the quarterback and then handing the ball off to one of them. They basically take two blockers and make them irrelevant. Why not put the extra blockers on the line of scrimmage and go single back?
There just anyway the Packers can do it. The Steelers have the big game moxie. The Pack is young and will be back but dont think they can overcome the playoff tested Steelers. Experience is a big factor.
Didn’t you just read the previous postings about “experience” in the SB, Jack?
Experience doesn’t mean (cue Matt Foley) JACK SQUAT!
Sorry A.S., I was referring to the Packers secondary . . . that’s what I get for posting at 6:25 a.m. pacific before coffee.
But the “jumbo” package I was referring to was the 1-ton goalline package Green Bay debuted against Atlanta a couple weeks ago . . .
What are the chances GB gets to the goalline only to have to risk it against the Steelers? I don’t think it’s that slim . . .
Ah, you meant bringing out the “Freezer” in B.J. Raji! I was referring to when the line up three running backs next to each other in the backfield, turn the ball off, hand it to one of those running backs who has no momentum and no lead blocker and then watch him get stuffed for no gain. I’m sure they’ll bring Raji out for an offensive play or two if/when they get close.
I don’t know why every team doesn’t go play action on the goal line at least once when they get inside the three. I don’t have hard facts, but it seems like it works 100% of the time. There’s always a tight end or full back wide open in the end zone because a linebacker or safety over-commits to the run, yet how many times do teams try to run the ball inside where everybody is? I swear, it drives me nuts!
And yeah, I think the Steelers will stick with their vertical game. They need to run the ball b/c GB has had some trouble this year with power running games, but Pittsburgh can’t get away from it’s vertical attack. It’s been great all year. Maybe we’ll see them test the Packers deep right away in order to get the butterflies out quickly.
I like the old Danny White play myself . . . Handoff to a right-side sweep, pause, throw to the QB on the left side for a TD.
TROY CAN AND WILL BE NEUTRALIZE..THROW SHORT IN HIS AREA AND THEN GO LONG AND IT WILL DRIVE TROY NUTS