College Football Week 15, NFL Week 14 Free Picks Posted by Anthony Stalter (12/06/2013 @ 6:41 pm) SEC Championship Game, 4:00PM ET Both Missouri and Auburn were predicted to finish near the bottom of their respective divisions in the SEC and yet both shocked the masses by meeting in the SEC title game. Even though this is an even matchup, all anyone can talk about is Auburn after the Tigers pulled off the upset over Alabama last Saturday. A very underrated Mizzou team isn’t getting the attention it deserves. Dorial Green-Beckham and L’Damian Washington create mismatch problems against Auburn’s smaller defensive backs, and Mizzou owns one of the most balanced offenses in the nation led by proficient QB James Franklin. On the other side, Auburn’s rushing attack has been a headache for opponents all season, which includes Alabama and its stout front seven last weekend. That said, Mizzou has an athletic front seven capable of stretching out Auburn’s ground attack and at least limiting its effect. Mizzou won’t be able to contain Auburn because nobody has. But if it can build a lead with its passing game and force Auburn to be somewhat one-dimensional, Mizzou will win this game. Mizzou is 4-0 against the spread in its last four conference games, 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games overall, and 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win. FREE PICK: MISSOURI +1 Big Ten Championship Game, 8:17PM ET Based on Michigan State’s vastly underrated defense, many expect this game to be low-scoring. But Ohio State struggled with Michigan’s offense last week despite Devin Gardner’s regression all season. Yes, you can throw out the records when Ohio State and Michigan meet. Thus, it wasn’t shocking that the Wolverines hung with the Buckeyes on their home turf last week. But what was surprising is that Gardner put on a show and a Michigan offense that hadn’t been firing on all cylinders in over a month racked up 41 points on the Buckeyes. Despite Michigan State’s success this season defensively, Braxton Miller and that Ohio State offense will get theirs in the end. Granted, the Big Ten has only held two championship games in its existence. But both games sailed over the total as Wisconsin edged Michigan State 42-39 in 2011 and the Badgers thumped Nebraska 70-31 last year. Look for more fireworks on Saturday night at Lucas Oil. FREE PICK: OVER 51.5 Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State, 12:00PM ET The only reason this contest could wind up being close is because its a rivalry game and the Sooners’ defense should keep things interesting, at least at the start. But Oklahoma’s offense has been punchless in big games this season, unless you consider its 38-point outburst over an overrated Texas Tech team back in October. The Sooners could only muster 12 points versus Baylor in early November and scored 20 in a 36-20 loss to Texas in mid-October. If Oklahoma State’s offense is firing on all cylinders, this one should get ugly in the second half. The Cowboys are 6-0 against the spread in their last six conference games and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Look for OK State to roll. FREE PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE -10 Panthers vs. Saints, 8:30PM ET The Saints were embarrassed in Seattle on Monday night so look for Sean Payton’s squad to come out fired up with first place in the NFC South up for grabs on Sunday night. Carolina’s defense is criminally underrated but New Orleans’ offense operates at another level at home compared to on the road. Payton is a more aggressive play-caller, Drew Brees is a more accurate passer, and the skill position players are usually unstoppable in their one-on-one matchups. The Saints are 21-6 against the spread in their last 27 home games and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The only reason the spread has been set as low as it has is because New Orleans played so poorly on a national stage last Monday. The Saints represent value. FREE PICK: SAINTS -3 College Football Week 13, NFL Week 12 Free Picks Posted by Anthony Stalter (11/22/2013 @ 10:12 pm) Missouri vs. Ole Miss, 7:45PM ET Some pundits didn’t expect Mizzou to win six games this season and now the Tigers are knocking on the door of playing in the SEC championship game. They have two more hurdles to overcome, however, as they need to beat Ole Miss on Saturday night and then Texas A&M in their final game of the regular season. Fortunately their starting quarterback James Franklin is set to return from injury to take the place of redshirt freshman Maty Mauk, who filled in admirably while Franklin was out with a shoulder injury. Before he was knocked out of a win against Georgia earlier this season, Franklin was completing 67.7 percent of his passes and was one of the top quarterbacks in the nation from a statistical standpoint. One mismatch that Franklin can take advantage of is the one-on-one issues that the Tigers’ receivers will give the Rebels’ cornerbacks. L’Damian Washington stands 6’4″ while future NFL prospect Dorial Green-Beckham is 6’6″ and Marcus Lucas is 6’5″. Conversely, Ole Miss’ starting corners are 5’9″ (Senquez Golson) and 5’8″ (Mike Hilton). As long as Mizzou’s stout defense can limit Bo Wallace’s ability to freelance and connect for big plays, they should win. FREE PICK: MISSOURI -2.5 Oregon vs. Arizona, 3:30PM ET Oregon is back on track to being the top seed from the Pac-12 and it knows style points will count tomorrow in Arizona. The Wildcats, meanwhile, have failed to cover in three straight games and are coming off a lifeless performance versus Washington State last week. The Ducks are 12-2 against the spread in their last 14 road games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 conference games. Arizona doesn’t have the hosses up front to dominant Oregon in the trenches. These are the types of matchups where the Ducks thrive. FREE PICK: OREGON -20.5 Cowboys vs. Giants, 4:25PM ET The Giants have won four straight but take a look at the quarterbacks they beat during that stretch: Josh Freeman, who didn’t know the playbook, Nick Foles before he became Nick Foles, a hobbled Terrelle Pryor and then Scott Tolzien last Sunday. Not exactly a Murderer’s Row of signal-callers. Granted, the Cowboys’ defense has been brutal under Monte Kiffin this season but Eli Manning hasn’t been sharp himself. The Cowboys are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games following a straight up loss and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Take the dog. FREE PICK: COWBOYS +1 Panthers vs. Dolphins, 1:00PM ET There isn’t a team hotter right now in the NFL than the Carolina Panthers, which is why they’re probably due for a letdown. They’re coming off back-to-back wins versus the 49ers on the road, and the Patriots at home on Monday night. Seeing as how they’re coming off a short week and now have to make the trip down to Miami, this is a perfect time to fade the Panthers. The Dolphins have been a mess both on and off the field over the past three weeks but they picked up a nice home win last week against the Chargers and are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games versus the Panthers. FREE PICK: DOLPHINS +4 Posted in: College Football Tags: Arizona Wildcats, Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, college football free picks, Dallas Cowboys, free picks, Missouri Tigers, New York Giants, nfl free picks, Ole Miss Rebels, Oregon Ducks
College Football Week 11, NFL Week 10 Free Picks Posted by Anthony Stalter (11/09/2013 @ 11:51 am) LSU vs. Alabama, 8:00PM ET This shouldn’t be the typical LSU-Alabama defensive slugfest for four quarters. The Tigers have had communication issues in their defensive backfield all season, which has led to some big plays for the opposition, and their pass rush has been inconsistent as well. On the other side, the Tide’s secondary is thin and the defense as a whole hasn’t looked as dominant as it has in recent years. But perhaps the biggest difference in this year’s matchup compared to recent meetings is that LSU finally has a quarterback capable of making plays down the field. Zach Mettenberger has given the Tigers a true vertical passing game and with that, scoring shouldn’t be an issue in this one. FREE PICK: OVER 54.5 Houston vs. Central Florida, 7:00PM ET Despite being 7-0 and 4-0 in conference play, Houston has received no love from oddsmakers. That’s been great for bettors, however, as the Cougars have covered the number in all but one game this season (last week versus South Florida when they won but failed to cover as a 19-point favorite). Houston is 5-0 against the spread in its last five road games and 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a bye week. The Cougars are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in November and 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win. Take the points. FREE PICK: HOUSTON +12.5 Cowboys vs. Saints, 8:30PM ET When teams are able to generate pressure from the interior of their defensive line and push the pocket into Drew Brees’ face, he struggles. That’s what happened last week when the Jets shocked the Saints in East Rutherford. That said, the Cowboys don’t employ Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson or Quinton Coples on their defensive line, so Brees and the Saints should have a bounce back game on Sunday night. New Orleans is 20-6 against the spread in its last 26 home games, 5-2 ATS in its last seven games versus NFC opponents and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games in Week 10. The Saints are simply a different team at home and should win this one by a touchdown-plus. FREE PICK: SAINTS -7 Raiders vs. Giants, 1:00PM ET Let’s see, neither of these teams can run the ball with much success and both defenses have been downright brutal this season – smells like an over to me. The Raiders allowed Nick Foles to throw for seven touchdown passes last week and while Eli Manning is in the midst of another down season, he should pick apart Oakland’s ragtag secondary. The over is 4-1 in the Giants’ last five home games and 5-2 in the Raiders’ last seven games in November. This one should sail over. FREE PICK: OVER 44 Posted in: College Football, NFL Tags: Alabama Crimson Tide, college football free picks, College football odds, Dallas Cowboys, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, free picks, LSU Tigers, New Orleans Saints, nfl free picks, NFL odds
College Football Week 10, NFL Week 9 Free Picks Posted by Anthony Stalter (11/01/2013 @ 7:03 pm) Miami vs. Florida State, 8:00PM ET These are two very different 7-0 teams. On one side you have the Hurricanes, who trailed in the fourth quarter in each of their last two games. On the other you had Seminoles, who have scored 40 or more points in seven consecutive games and the closet thing they came to losing was beating Boston College by double-digit points. Miami’s offense has been inconsistent of late and while its defense has held strong since the start of the season, no opponent has been a hurdle for Heisman candidate Jameis Winston. The Seminoles are 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games and 4-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record. Lay the points. FREE PICK: FLORIDA STATE -21 Iowa State vs. Kansas State, 3:30PM ET Outside of the Miami-FSU tilt on Saturday night, there aren’t many sexy matchups on the Week 10 schedule. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be had. Kansas State is 0-4 against the spread in its last four games following a straight up win while Iowa State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games versus a team with a losing home record. The road team is also 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams while the underdog is 4-1-1 against the number in the last six meetings. The Cyclones are 1-6 on the year but take a closer look at their losses prior to their beat down at Baylor and last week versus Oklahoma State. They covered rather easily against Texas Tech and should have beaten Texas if it weren’t for a last-second collapse. The Wildcats, meanwhile, couldn’t be further from the team that opened the 2012 season winning its first 10 games. Take the points on this inflated spread. FREE PICK: IOWA STATE +17 Saints vs. Jets, 1:00PM ET One would think that with this being the “Ryan Bowl” that we’ll see plenty of defense. But who knows the tendencies of the Ryan-led defenses better than the offenses for the Saints and Jets? Despite Jimmy Graham playing on an injured foot, Drew Brees threw for five touchdowns last week in a win over Buffalo, including two TD passes to his banged up tight end. Meanwhile, the over is 5-1 in the Jets’ last six games overall, 4-1 in their last five games versus a team with a winning record and 13-5-2 in their last 20 games in November. With New York’s front seven taking away the Saints’ running game, look for Brees to pick on the Jets’ secondary. This game won’t lack for big plays. FREE PICK: OVER 45.5 Chargers vs. Redskins, 1:00PM ET Washington’s defense has been putrid this season while allowing 32.7 points per game (31st in the NFL). In fact, the over is 7-2-1 in Washington’s last 10 games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game (its allowed over 80 points the past two weeks ago), and 7-3 in its last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in its previous game. On the other side, the over is 7-1 in the Chargers’ last eight games in Week 9 and 39-18-4 in their lat 61 road games. Points shouldn’t be a problem on Sunday in Washington. FREE PICK: OVER 51 Posted in: College Football, NFL Tags: college football free picks, Drew Brees, Florida State Seminoles, free picks, Jameis Winston, jimmy graham, Miami Hurricanes, New Orleans Saints, nfl free picks, Rex Ryan, Rob Ryan, Washington Redskins
College Football Week 7, NFL Week 6 Free Picks Posted by Anthony Stalter (10/12/2013 @ 7:00 am) No. 25 Missouri vs. No. 7 Georgia, 12:00PM ET The Tigers are back in the AP top 25 for the first time in two years and are coming off a 51-28 drubbing of Vanderbilt on the road last Saturday. Quarterback James Franklin has looked sharp in the early going and has weapons at his disposal in Henry Josey and dynamic playmaker Dorial Green-Beckham. On the other side, No. 7 Georgia barely escaped Knoxville with a victory last weekend and is severely banged up offensively. The Bulldogs will be without running backs Keith Marshall and Todd Gurely, as well as recievers Michael Bennett and Justin Scott-Wesley. And while quarterback Aaron Murray has put on a show in back-to-back weeks, the defense still has plenty of holes after losing a handful of starters to the NFL draft back in April. Georgia is tough to beat in between the hedges, but look for Mizzou to keep things tight. FREE PICK: MISSOURI +7.5 No. 9 Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss, 8:30PM ET Two weeks ago there was plenty of chatter surrounding the 3-0 Rebels as they headed into Tuscaloosa. But following a 25-0 blanking at the hands of Alabama and a 30-22 upset last week versus Auburn, Ole Miss has once again fallen off the map. On the other side, A&M has completely regrouped following its loss to Alabama. The Aggies thumped a hapless SMU squad 42-13 before out-pacing Arkansas 45-33 two weeks ago in Fayetteville. Kevin Sumlin’s team is well rested coming off the bye and more importantly his defense has started to show signs of life. The spread is too low for this game, as “Johnny Football” and Co. should roll. FREE PICK: TEXAS A&M -6 Steelers at Jets, 1:00PM ET It was impressive to watch Geno Smith lead the Jets to a huge road victory over the Falcons on Monday Night Football, but suddenly the national media has made him into Randall Cunningham. Thanks to a rash of injuries the Falcons were without their starting running back, left tackle, middle linebacker, one of their outside linebackers, one of their starting defensive ends and were forced to play a hobbled Roddy White and Julio Jones because their reciveving corps is so thin. In other words, what the Jets did was impressive but they didn’t exactly beat the same Atlanta team that came within 10 yards of going to the Super Bowl last year. The Steelers are coming off their bye and thus, should have had plenty of time to regroup and iron out their issues on both sides of the ball. While it’s shocking to see the Giants at 0-6 on the year, it would be even more surprising to watch the Steelers fall to 0-5. FREE PICK: STEELERS +1 Rams at Texans, 1:00PM ET The Texans are in the middle of a freefall because quarterback Matt Schaub can’t protect the football. He’s had an interception returned for a touchdown in four straight games and has seemingly lost his confidence. That said, Houston’s running game has remained effective and its defense still boasts the likes of Brian Cushing and J.J. Watt, who is the best interior defensive lineman in the league. The Rams are coming off a win over the winless Jaguars but they still struggle with penalties, third down conversions on both sides of the ball, and run defense. Sam Bradford has also reverted back into a check-down machine and should be under constant duress in Houston. Look for the Texans to get back on track on Sunday. FREE PICK: TEXANS -7.5 Posted in: College Football, NFL Tags: college football free picks, free picks, Geno Smith, Georgia Bulldogs, Houston Texans, Johnny Manziel, Matt Schaub, Missouri Tigers, New York Jets, nfl free picks, Pittsburgh Steelers, St. Louis Rams
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