Are the Miami Hurricanes back now that Manny Diaz is at the helm? We’ll see tonight as they take on the #8 Florida Gators to open the college football season.
Much of the talk regarding Miami has centered around freshman QB Jarren Williams beating out Tate Martell for the starting job, but the bigger factor may involve the Miami’s lack of experience along the offensive line.
The spread has stayed around Florida -7 leading up to game time. This should be a fun one.
The ranks of the undefeated are starting to thin out.
First, the Big 12 showed again how pathetic college defenses can look as Texas defeated rival Oklahoma 48-45 to hand the Sooners their first loss of the season. Texas almost squandered a huge lead but then let the Sooners tie it up late. They sealed with win with a 40-yard field goal from freshman Cameron Dicker.
Meanwhile, Ohio State transfer Joe Burrow had LSU ranked in the top ten without a loss heading into Florida, but the Gators sealed the win with a late pick 6.
Finally, Auburn was handled on the road against Mississippi State, 23-9.
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Less than an hour before kickoff of the Florida/LSU game in Baton Rouge comes this tweet from Tracy Wolfson:
Jacoby Brissett out warming up. Jeff Driskell not.
This is bad news for a lot of people: Will Muschamp, Charlie Weis, Driskel, Brissett and Verne Lundquist, who is likely to fall asleep by halftime of what is sure to be an absolute blowout. It looks like the true freshman will be replacing the other true freshman against the second ridiculously scary defense the Gators have had to face in as many weeks.
Driskel replaced John Brantley last week against Alabama after the Tide knocked him out of the game. Now Driskel seems questionable at best leaving Brissett as the next option. A kid who has never played a down of college football, taking his first snap in the Bayou against the nation’s No. 1 team. Good luck with that.
LSU isn’t literally an NFL defense like you may hear often today. That’s hyperbole. But will most all of the players Brissett sees today one day be in the NFL? Yes. And he’s going to see a lot of them, mostly charging through his offensive line while frothing at the mouth.
If I was Florida offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, I’d think of getting the ball out of Brissett’s hands as quickly as possible, just to protect your future investment. Although that might leave Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps open to certain injury, and you don’t want to lose them. Maybe take a knee on every down and just punt? This literally may be Florida’s best option.
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Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck scrambles for first quarter yardage during play against Virginia Tech in the 2011 Discover Orange Bowl NCAA football game in Miami, January 3, 2011. REUTERS/Hans Deryk (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)
If you haven’t hopped on this gravy train yet then shame on you because these picks are crashing and burning on a weekly basis now. After my 1-2-1 effort in Week 5, my season record is 10-8-2 but I’m now 4-7-1 over the past three weeks. It’s only a matter of time before that season record of mine gets below .500 and I’m providing true “Fade Material.”
Here are my picks for Week 6. I see a couple of backdoor covers and one underdog that should be down by 21 points by the end of the first quarter…
Florida State @ Wake Forest, 12:30PM ET The Seminoles are having a hell of a time trying to run the ball (they’re 115th in the nation in rushing offense) and injuries are starting to mount for FSU. Meanwhile, Wake Forest has won three straight games for the first time since 2007 and quarterback Tanner Price is off to the best four-game start in school history (1,119 yards). The ‘Noles are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games against the Demon Deacons, while the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams. THE PICK: WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS +10
Florida @ LSU, 3:30PM ET It’s going to be a long day for freshman quarterback Jeff Driskel, who is subbing for the injured Jeff Brantley in Baton Rouge today. LSU is allowing just 12.8 points per game and is coming off a game in which it allowed just 155 total yards in a win over Kentucky. The Gators are just 2-6-1 against the spread versus a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last five October games. I doubt LSU will roll but I don’t envision Florida scoring more than 10 points. THE PICK: LSU TIGERS –13
Vanderbilt @ Alabama, 7:00PM ET I’m choking on chalk this weekend but I don’t care. Vanderbilt is heading in the right direction under first-year coach James Franklin but very little is going to slow down this ‘Bama team from making a run at the national championship. The Tide are 15-1 all-time against Vanderbilt at Bryant-Denny Stadium and is outscoring opponents 45-8 in the fourth quarter this season. Nick Saban’s team doesn’t let up and even though this is a huge point spread, I like ‘Bama to produce a blowout for homecoming week in Tuscaloosa. THE PICK: ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE -29
Colorado @ Stanford, 7:30PM ET Oddsmakers keep jacking up the point spread on Stanford and the Cardinal keeps covering. Thus, there’s no reason to hop off the Andrew Luck bandwagon now. Stanford is 6-0-1 against the number in their last seven conference games and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Meanwhile, the Buffs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog of 10.5 points or greater. THE PICK: STANFORD CARDINAL -29
Alabama Crimson Tide head football coach Nick Saban runs onto the field before their NCAA football game with the Duke Blue Devils in Durham, North Carolina September 18, 2010. REUTERS/Jim R. Bounds (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)
After a strong start I’m heading right downhill, which is good considering I’ve named this column “Fade Material.” After all, I don’t want to be made out to be a liar.
Arizona, Vanderbilt and Arkansas were all losers last week while Clemson was my only winner. That put me at 1-3 for the week and 9-6-1 on the season, which isn’t bad although I’m only 3-5 in the past two weeks. Let’s see if I can’t put together my first 4-0 or 0-4 Saturday…
Georgia Tech @ NC State, 3:30PM ET The Wolfpack have looked horrible at times this season, but if they could just cut down on the turnovers they could stop sabotaging themselves. The underdog is 6-1 against the spread in the last seven meetings between these two teams and I’m a sucker for home dogs. Georgia Tech is 4-0 on the year and has covered in every game thus far, but the Jackets are due to suffer a scare. THE PICK: NC STATE +10
Texas @ Iowa State, 7:00PM ET The Cyclones don’t blow you away statistically but this is a decent Iowa State team this year. Not only are they 3-0 thus far, but they also covered the spread outright as underdogs to Iowa and Connecticut the last two weeks. Can they make it three wins in a row as a dog? I’m doubtful, but I like them to cover the spread against a Texas team that’s 0-5 in its last five conference games. THE PICK: IOWA STATE +9
Alabama @ Florida, 8:00PM ET The game of the week is in the SEC as the Gators host the Crimson Tide in the “Swamp.” In 58 games as head coach at Alabama, Nick Saban has allowed less than 300 yards of total offense 33 times and the Tide have held opponents to 10 points or less 26 times during that span. Florida has been explosive offensively at times this year but I think Alabama’s defense puts the clamps down in the second half. The Crimson Tide are 7-1-1 against the number in their last nine games against the Gators and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. THE PICK: ALABAMA –4
Notre Dame @ Purdue, 8:00PM The underdog is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings between these two teams while the Irish are 1-5 against the number in their last six games as a road favorite. Meanwhile, Purdue is 3-1-1 against the spread in its last five games as a home dog and 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or greater. The games between these two teams tend to be tight, so I like the Boilermakers to keep the score within 10 points. THE PICK: PURDUE +11.5