UFC 121 Picks and Predictions

Nov 15, 2008 - Las Vegas, Nevada, USA - UFC's BROCK LESNAR celebrates his victory over Champion RANDY COUTURE in their title fight Saturday, Nov. 15, 2008 in Las Vegas, NV. Lesnar won the title and the fight in 3:07 of the second round after the referee stopped the fight Photo via Newscom

UFC 121: Lesnar vs. Velasquez takes place Saturday night from the Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif. featuring a monumental main event for the UFC Heavyweight Championship. Here is my take on the card and who will win the main card bouts.

UFC Heavyweight Championship – Brock Lesnar (5-1) vs. Cain Velasquez (8-0): This is the biggest heavyweight bout the UFC could put together right now and Velasquez has a great chance to win the belt. The key will be for him to be able to stop the takedown attempts and keep the fight standing, where he has better striking and faster hands. Lesnar showed that he can be hurt in his last fight against Shane Carwin, but I think Velasquez has the endurance to see the victory through.

UFC Welterweight Bout – Jake Shields (25-4-1) vs. Martin Kampmann (17-3): Shields is making his UFC debut and many are penciling him in as the next to challenge Georges St. Pierre for the welterweight title, but I actually like Kampmann in an upset here as he has an all-around and aggressive style that can give Shields problems. Kampmann has only lost to strikers in his career, and Shields is far from an elite striker. I like Kampmann to win by decision in this one.

UFC Welterweight Bout – Diego Sanchez (23-4) vs. Paulo Thiago (13-2): Thiago has beaten some solid contenders in the welterweight division, but he has struggled with superior grapplers, losing to Jon Fitch and Kampmann. Sanchez got dominated in his last two fights and is desperate for a win, and I think he will come out motivated and looking to control the fight from the start with his pacing and wrestling. I like Sanchez to squeak out a decision against Thiago.

UFC Light Heavyweight Bout – Tito Ortiz (16-7-1) vs. Matt Hamill (10-2): Ortiz hasn’t won a fight since 2006 and while Hamill is lacking in some key areas, I think he has a better all-around game than Ortiz, who is pretty one dimensional with wrestling as his strength. Look for Hamill to move around and work kicks before scoring some late takedowns to get a decision win over Ortiz.

UFC Heavyweight Bout – Brendan Schaub (7-1) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (11-5): Schaub has a lot of promise and is an up-and-comer while Gonzaga is still holding on to a little bit of relevance, but has lost four of his last seven fights, with all of the losses coming by TKO. Schaub has won his last two fights by quick KO, so this fight should have plenty of fireworks. Look for Schaub to get the win as he has the quicker hands and is the better technical striker.

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UFC 115 Picks & Predictions

UFC 115: Liddell vs. Franklin takes place tonight from the General Motors Palace in Vancouver, British Columbia. The card is pretty solid but not overwhelming. Here are my thoughts on each of the main card bouts.

Light Heavyweight Bout – Chuck Liddell (21-7) vs. Rich Franklin (27-5) – Both of these guys are past their prime and looking for another win to add to their career list. Liddell looks to be in great shape for the fight but unless he changes the way he fights, he is probably in trouble. Franklin is a more technical striker and he utilizes body kicks, which Liddell will have trouble with. I expect Franklin to use his jab to keep Liddell and bay and slowly wear him down before scoring a big punch that leads to a finish in the third round.

Heavyweight Bout – Mirko Cro Cop (26-7) vs. Pat Barry (5-1) – This should be a very entertaining fight as neither fighter wants it to go to the ground and both are excellent with their kicks. Unfortunately for Cro Cop, he has lost his killer instinct that made him a star and his apprehension will allow Barry to set the tone with his brutal leg kicks. Look for Barry to win this fight by a TKO in the second round.

Welterweight Bout – Paulo Thiago (13-1) vs. Martin Kampmann (16-3) – Kampmann seems to be getting overlooked in this fight as he is a tough guy to beat and he is very well-rounded. Thiago is probably over-confident in his striking after his last win over Mike Swick, but that will play into Kampmann’s favor. Look for the Dane to get a decision victory as he dictates the pacing and location of the bout.
Heavyweight Bout – Ben Rothwell (30-7) vs. Gilbert Yvel (36-14-1) – These are two big sluggers that are going to probably tire themselves out early in the fight. The key to victory will be the bigger size and better wrestling skill of Rothwell, who should be able to use his weight to lay on Yvel and tire him out quicker. Once Yvel is gassed, look for Rothwell to pounce and score a second round TKO win.

Welterweight Bout – Carlos Condit (24-5) vs. Rory MacDonald (10-0) – There is a lot of promise in MacDonald, who is just 20-years-old, but he is stepping up in competition with this fight against the experienced Condit. Condit will be ready anywhere the fight goes and MacDonald still has some learning to do before he can get into contender status. Look for Condit to out-class MacDonald on their feet and on the ground as he scores a decision win.

UFC 100 Preview & Predictions

The Ultimate Fighting Championship celebrates a monumental landmark tonight with UFC 100. To celebrate the 100th Pay Per View show for the Mixed-Martial Arts company, the UFC has put together a stacked feature card headlined by three main-event caliber fights. Overall the main card has five fights, including two championship bouts. The show takes places from the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas at 10 p.m. ET. Here are my predictions for the main card bouts.

Heavyweight Championship (265 pounds): Champion Brock Lesnar (3-1) vs. Frank Mir (12-3) – This fight is tough to call. Mir one the previous meeting at UFC 81 in February of 2008, but since, both fighters have vastly improved. Lesnar has been over-powering and shown solid boxing in his wins over Heath Herring and Randy Couture. Mir has been on a tear in his last three fights, picking up quick wins over Antoni Hardonk, Lesnar, and Minotaro Nogueira. Mir became the first to stop Nogueria back at UFC 92, which set up the rematch with Lesnar. In this fight, I think Mir’s improved boxing will play a big factor. In the first meeting, Lesnar landed big punches early and pounced on Mir, nearly stopping the fight before Mir pulled of a knee-bar submission. In this fight I think Mir will be able to dictate where the fight goes more than he did in the first meeting. With Mir’s composure and elite level submission ability, I see Mir surviving Lesnar’s early onslaught and then successfully pulling off a submission. I take Mir by submission in round three.

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