Tag: Fantasy football draft strategy (Page 5 of 20)

      Projected carries in KC, Houston, Indy, Buffalo and Oakland

      August 18, 2010 /
      DENVER - JANUARY 03: Jamaal Charles #25 of the Kansas City Chiefs rushes against the Denver Broncos at Invesco Field at Mile High on January 3, 2010 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)

      Chris Wesseling of Rotoworld has released updated carry projections for the entire AFC, but let’s focus on five teams: the Chiefs, Texans, Colts, Bills and Raiders.

      We’ll go one by one:

      Jamaal Charles: 220
      Thomas Jones: 140
      Kestahn Moore: 30

      Charles emerged as the Chiefs’ MVP last year, averaging 20 carries and 121 rushing yards once hit he the starting lineup at mid-season. The projection above accounts for Jones in slightly more than a Willis McGahee-type short-yardage/inside role, giving Charles just under 14 carries per contest. Throw in three receptions per week and it’s enough to leave Charles as a borderline RB1.

      Obviously, these numbers disregard the fact that TJ is still atop the depth chart and the head coach is telling the press that Charles’s role is ‘undefined.’ While it would seem incomprehensible to fantasy owners that Haley would limit Charles’s touches given how well he played last season, the news out of KC should not be ignored. TJ has been overlooked everywhere he’s went and while I’m hoping for a 60/40 split like we see here, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s more 50/50.

      Arian Foster: 215
      Steve Slaton: 125
      Jeremiah Johnson: 20
      Chris Henry: 10

      The line for now trendy Foster love starts behind Rotoworld. We were hyping the former Tennessee star as a Dynasty deep sleeper once the Texans snatched him up after last year’s draft while promoting him as the potential answer in Houston by mid-November. Although Ben Tate’s season-ending broken fibula has killed Foster’s sleeper potential for this year, it certainly offers more clarity in this backfield: Foster is Batman; Slaton is Robin. Draft accordingly.

      I didn’t jump on the Foster bandwagon until earlier this summer, but with Tate’s injury, he looks like he should vastly outplay his current draft position (9.02 over the last week). Look for his ADP to continue to rise. I’d start thinking about picking him in the 7th or the 8th. He played very well at the end of last season, has drawn rave reviews from the coaching staff this summer, and it’s clear that the team doesn’t view Slaton as a feature back any longer.

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      Ben Tate’s season is over — grab Arian Foster

      August 15, 2010 /

      HOUSTON - JANUARY 03: Running back Arian Foster #37 of the Houston Texans slips past a diving line backer Gary Guyton #59 in the third quarter at Reliant Stadium on January 3, 2010 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)

      Per the Houston Chronicle…

      Tate suffered a broken ankle in the 19-16 preseason loss at Arizona. He’s expected to undergo surgery on Tuesday.

      Tate, the second-round pick from Auburn, was third team behind Foster and Slaton. Kubiak wanted to see him play for two quarters against the Cardinals. Tate was injured at the end of a 12-yard run when he was tackled by rookie linebacker Daryl Washington.

      Tate will be placed on injured reserve.

      I was already a fan of Arian Foster this summer, but with Tate out, I like his chances even more. Here’s what I wrote in my sleeper RBs piece.

      Of everyone on this list, Foster could very well turn out to be the best value if things break his way. Houston’s offensive line is decent, and Foster had a couple of nice games late last season — 19 carries, 97 yards, TD versus Miami and 23 touches, 145 yards, 2 TD against New England — giving him some momentum heading into 2010. His head coach called the 23-year-old ‘mature beyond his years’ and says he’ll be tough to unseat atop the Texans’ depth chart. Meanwhile, rookie Ben Tate ‘has a long way to go’ while Steve Slaton is spending time in camp working on his kick return skills. This points to Foster as the opening day starter. As long as he doesn’t fumble away the job, Foster’s ADP is bound to move into the middle rounds as the preseason wears on.

      With Tate out, I’m now targeting Foster in the 7th or the 8th round. He should make a solid third RB and could be a RB2 in a pinch in a flex league that only requires two RB starters. Kubiak lost confidence in Slaton last season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Foster crack the top 20 assuming he stays healthy and doesn’t start coughing up the ball.

      Here’s a quick look:

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      Randy Moss’s offseason regimen

      August 12, 2010 /
      FOXBORO, MA - JANUARY 10: Randy Moss #81 of the New England Patriots runs a route against Dominique Foxworth #24 of the Baltimore Ravens during the 2010 AFC wild-card playoff game at Gillette Stadium on January 10, 2010 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

      I tend to shy away from Randy Moss on draft day, mainly due to the reputation that he earned in Oakland of being a malcontent. But the Raiders will make anyone a little crazy, right?

      After watching some video of how he spent his summer, I’m definitely considering taking him in the late first/early second.

      Tim Martin, who has trained Moss the past eight years and is the innovator of the workout, believes the Patriots receiver doesn’t get enough credit for how well he’s maintained his body over time, and how hard he’s worked to stay at the top of his game.

      “Yeah, he is very talented, but he outworks 99 percent of the NFL,” said Martin, when reached by phone last week. “I heard Jerry Rice talk about how hard Larry Fitzgerald works. I’ve seen his workout … if people take a look at what myself and Randy do, you’ll see a lot of things you don’t see other people doing. I’d put our regimen up against anyone else’s.”

      During camp, Moss has had that quick first step and extra gear, particularly on the long bomb routes, as he’s easily beaten many of the younger corners, Darius Butler and Devin McCourty. The past few days during the joint practice sessions with New Orleans, he also made the Saints secondary look slow.

      You can see highlights of his workout regimen here.

      Since joining the Patriots, Moss has averaged 83-1255-15.7 in three seasons. Even if we throw out his monstrous ’07 campaign (98-1493-23), he has averaged 76-1136-12 over the last two years, and that included playing an entire season with Matt Cassel instead of Tom Brady. Brady returned in ’09 and Moss posted 83-1264-13.

      If he’s healthy, and it sure looks like he is, there’s no reason to believe that he’s not capable of putting up similar numbers in 2010. This makes him an intriguing pick in the late first round/early second round as fantasy owners have to decide whether or not to go stud WR or take one of the second- or third-tier RBs that are still there.

      External Sports, Fantasy Football, News, NFL

      2010 Fantasy Football Preview: The Perfect Draft

      August 10, 2010 /
      OAKLAND, CA - JANUARY 03: Zach Miller #80 of the Oakland Raiders catches a touchdown pass in the second quarter against the Baltimore Ravens during an NFL game at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on January 3, 2010 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

      Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve outlined my strategy for the upcoming fantasy football season in the various segments of the 2010 Fantasy Football Preview. In this post, I’ll attempt to pull them all together to provide a (somewhat) coherent strategy that you can, if you so choose, use on draft day.

      Below is an overview of the various components. Note: I’m assuming this is a 12-team, TE-required PPR league.

      1. Quarterback By Committee (QBBC)
      This year, I am recommending that fantasy owners draft Eli Manning in the 7th round and Ben Roethlisberger in the 9th (since it looks like Roger Goodell is going to shorten his suspension to four games and in effect, raise Ben’s fantasy stock). I’m going with 7th/9th because it looks like Eli’s ADP is creeping up as the fantasy preseason wears on. If Eli goes before your pick in the 7th, then go with Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or Carson Palmer, in that order. Their schedules all mesh well with Big Ben’s.

      2. Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC)
      I’m targeting the Chargers in the 14th, and then using my next pick on the Patriots, Dolphins, Colts or Bears, in that order. If you miss out on the Chargers, there are various other options outlined in the DTBC piece.

      3. Draft Zach Miller in the 8th round.
      Here’s what I wrote about Miller in our TE preview:

      Jason Campbell is in as the starter in Oakland, which means that for the first time, Miller will have a capable QB throwing the ball. Campbell loved throwing it to Chris Cooley in Washington, so Miller projects to have a nice year. He caught 37 passes over his final six games and with a solid QB under center, he should be able to build off of that success.

      Of course, if Tony Gonzalez or Brent Celek somehow slip into the 8th, I’d take either over Miller, but barring that, Miller is my man in the 8th.

      The rest is fill in the blanks and it largely depends on your draft position and who you like in each round. I put together the table below as an outline. Along the top you’ll see different picks (1-4, 5, 6-7, 8-12) which represents all the picks in the first round. (Note: You can see a bigger version of the table by clicking on it.)

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