2009 NBA Mock Draft Version 2.0

It has been about two weeks since I published my first mock draft, so it’s a good time to check back in with all the news and rumors and take another stab.

Like I said in the intro of my first mock, it’s tough for me to make predictions about what teams will do because I’m constantly thinking about what they should do. These are obviously two very different things.

For this go-around, I’m going to try something a little different. I’ve compiled the picks for four mock drafts from sites that I respect — ESPN (Chad Ford), Dime Magazine, DraftExpress and NBADraft.net — and then I’ll provide my own picks taking their picks into account, to form some sort of consensus.

Let’s get on with it…

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NBA free agency and draft rumors

Charlie Villanueva is open to joining the Cavs, and given the current state of the economy, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the best he’ll be able to do is a deal at the mid-level (~$5.8 million). The Bucks first have to decide whether or not to make the qualifying offer (~$4.6 million) and they may elect not to in order to avoid going over the luxury tax threshold (~$71 million, and could drop). Without Villanueva (and Ramon Sessions, who is also slated to become a restricted free agent), the Bucks’ payroll is at about $61 million with only eight players under contract. Villanueva would give the Cavs a good matchup for Rashard Lewis. Both players are slender power forwards who can shoot the ball, though Charlie V isn’t known for his defense.

– UFA Andre Miller doesn’t have a problem with the Sixers’ hire of head coach Eddie Jordan. The Sixers are over the cap but well under the luxury tax, so I’d expect them to sign the 33 year-old to a one- or two-year deal in the $6-7 million range. He is unlikely to get that on the open market, but Portland is a team with cap space that could use his leadership.

– Toronto GM Bryan Colangelo plans to keep Chris Bosh and try to surround him with better players, unless the talented power forward expresses serious doubts about re-signing. By sending Jermaine O’Neal to the Heat for Shawn Marion (and his expiring contract), the Raptors have about $10 million in cap space heading into the summer. While that may not be enough to land someone like Carlos Boozer, it is enough, coupled with the team’s mid-level exception, to add two or three pretty good players to the roster. How about Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva/Chris Andersen? I’d expect the Bosh rumors to heat up next season if Toronto struggles again early on.

– Hoopsworld says that there’s a rumor making the rounds that the Thunder might take DeMar DeRozan #3. This sounds a little fishy to me because everything I’m seeing shows DeRozan slipping a little after poor agility and sprint tests at the combine. James Harden has the better standing vertical and is just 1.5″ off of DeRozan’s max vertical. Harden also beat DeRozan soundly in the agility and sprint tests and is the much more polished offensive player at this point. DeRozan is 1.5″ taller, but Harden has a higher reach because he has a longer wingspan.

– With Jonny Flynn and Jrue Holiday climbing the draft charts, Ricky Rubio is suddenly open to interviews and workouts with teams picking #2 to #4, which includes Memphis, Oklahoma City and Sacramento. Rubio apparently didn’t play very well in his season finale, and his camp may be worried about him slipping out of the top four if those teams in question find a guy they like better.

2009 NBA Mock Draft Version 1.0

With the NBA Draft Lottery behind us, we now know the exact order of the first 14 picks. The Los Angeles Clippers hit paydirt when they won the right to draft Oklahoma forward Blake Griffin with the first overall pick. The Grizzlies moved up from #6 to #2, and the Thunder moved up one spot to pick #3. The big losers Tuesday night were Sacramento and Washington, who had the best and second-best shot at the top pick, but instead fell to #4 and #5, respectively.

Mock drafts are tough for me because I’m usually thinking about what teams should do instead of trying to predict what they will do. This mock will be more predictive, but if I disagree with a selection, I’ll say so. Over the next few weeks, I’ll update this mock to jive with the latest news from around the league. It’s still very early in the process so things are very fluid. One mock has a player going #11 while another may have him going #29.

I’m just going to make picks for the first fourteen slots on the first go-round and then provide the picks of a few different mocks that I respect for #15-#30, along with a short writeup for each team.

#1 LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Even Mike Dunleavy can’t screw this one up. Barring something obscenely out of the blue, Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin will be the first overall pick. The Clippers could use a power forward to replace Elton Brand, and Griffin is the only “sure thing” in this draft. He’s strong, skilled and athletic, and he has an improving offensive game. He has star written all over him.
Pick: Griffin, PF

#2 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
The Grizzlies were reportedly one of the few teams more interested in UConn’s 7’3” center Hasheem Thabeet than they were in Blake Griffin. The Grizzlies already have 7’1” Marc Gasol, so Thabeet wouldn’t fill a need like Jordan Hill, Ricky Rubio or Brandon Jennings would (assuming the team isn’t sold on Hakim Warrick or Mike Conley), but Thabeet has the potential to become a dominant defensive center along the lines of Dikembe Mutombo. But will he be willing to put the work in to become an effective post player?
Pick: Thabeet, C

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Four observations about the Midwest Region

1. Louisville is a class above the rest, but they have a serious flaw.
No major conference team comes into the tournament hotter than Louisville. They have won 10 straight games, including wins over Providence (twice), Marquette, West Virginia and Villanova. They even beat a red-hot Syracuse team to win the Big East Championship. They have the country’s second-best adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for strength of schedule), and aren’t too shabby offensively, either. But the conventional wisdom is that you need strong guard play to win a title, and the Cardinals don’t have a guard that averages more than 7.8 points per game. However, Louisville’s little guys can really defend, and that might be enough.

2. There are some live dogs.
I doubt there were any coaches out there hoping to get a first round matchup with Arizona this week. With future NBA’ers Chase Budinger, Nic Wise and Jordan Hill in the lineup, the Wildcats can play with anyone. But will they show up? #10-seed USC is hot as a pistol right now and the Trojans actually might be the favorite in their matchup with #7-seed Boston College. Freshman phenom DeMar DeRozan has averaged 19.8 points over the last five games, all USC wins. #13-seed Cleveland State is 29th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. What does this mean? The Vikings can really defend. That’s bad news for the Demon Deacons, who shot just 30% in their ACC tourney matchup with Maryland last week.

3. That Kansas/WVU pick is a tough one.

Not only is this a great matchup between two very good teams, but with the winner’s date with the vulnerable Michigan State Spartans in the next round, this one might have huge bracket implications as well. Should we pick the Mountaineers, who recently beat Pittsburgh and Villanova, and lost by five to a hot Syracuse team in the Big East semis? Or do we pick the Jayhawks, who beat Oklahoma, Missouri and Texas before laying an egg against Baylor in the Big 12 tournament? Maybe the best plan to enter two pools so we can pick both.

4. The longshots can shoot the long ball.
The three-point shot is the great equalizer, and the favorites in the Midwest better not fall asleep on the perimeter, or they might be in for a long day. #14-seed North Dakota State has a four-pack of players that make an average of 6.2 three-pointers a game, highlighted by leading scorer Ben Woodside’s 22.8 points per game and 43% accuracy from long range. #15-seed Robert Morris has Jeremy Chappell (2.5 3pg, 41% 3PT) and Jimmy Langhurst (1.9 3pg, 43% 3PT), who can both really light it up. So, Kansas and Michigan State — don’t say you weren’t warned…

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