Tag: Andrei Kirilenko

Great Quotes: Andrei Kirilenko

“I don’t think the money is going to be an issue. I understand that I look at the world realistically. I understand my value is going to be a little lower than it is right now. I’m not worried about that. Money has never been an issue. It’s good to have a good contract and money. But my priority is basketball.”

— Andrei Kirilenko, via FanHouse.com

I don’t want to get on the guy too much here, because he probably doesn’t want to devalue his game, but he says his value is going to be “a little lower”?

Kirilenko’s contract is one of the more interesting deals in the game. He signed a six-year contract worth $86 million at the start of the 2004-05 season after averaging 17-8-4 with 1.8 steals and 2.8 blocks per game in 2003-04. But that was before Carlos Boozer arrived and Matt Harpring was the team’s second leading scorer. Since the addition of Boozer and, later, Deron Williams, Kirilenko has taken a back seat offensively and he has become one of the most overpaid players in the league.

But it’s not his fault that the Jazz paid him that much. In 2004, with the dearth of talent in post-Stockton/Malone Utah, he was just 23 and looked like a superstar in the making. His PER in 2003-04 was 22.79 and it even jumped to 24.44 the following season. Over the last three seasons, he has averaged in the 16-17 range, so he’s still an above average forward in terms of stats. He’s due to make $17.8 million next season and will become a free agent in 2011, at the age of 30. My guess is that the next deal he signs will be around the mid-level (~$6 million per season). So, yeah, his value will drop off a little bit.

The bigger thing to take from this story is that Kirilenko isn’t looking for a payday. He wants to stay with the Jazz — and that’s admirable.

The top 10 first round steals of the last 10 years

Everyone loves to focus on the lottery, but there are good players to be had in the late first round as well. A while back, I put together a list of the top second round picks of the modern era, so now I’m going to focus on those players that were drafted between pick #21 and pick #30 in the first round. (Note: If a player was drafted in the second round, even if they were taken with the #29 or #30 pick overall, they are ineligible to make the list. Sorry, Gilbert.) Since there are more star-quality players available in the 20’s, I’m limiting this list to the last ten drafts (i.e. 1999 through 2008).

It is sometimes tough to rank older players with newer players, but even if a younger player holds more trade value right now, I am going to take into account each player’s entire career. For the young guys, I have to project a little bit, so keep that in mind as you read and react. I feel great about the top eight guys, but there are a few players that missed the list that are pretty interchangeable with #9 and #10.

On with the list…

10. Aaron Brooks, Rockets
26th pick in 2007
I had to decide between Brooks and Nate Robinson here and went with Brooks given his fine performance in the playoffs this season (16.8 ppg, 3.4 apg, 42% from 3PT) and how Robinson’s numbers are a little inflated playing for Mike D’Antoni. Brooks is not a natural point guard, but his sharpshooting is a good fit given Houston’s inside-out attack. He’s small, but he’s quick and is able to score at the rim when given some daylight. The Rockets feel good enough about Brooks to trade Rafer Alston away midseason, so you have to like his upside.

9. Kendrick Perkins, Celtics
27th pick in 2003 (drafted by the Grizzlies)
In the world of “big” guys, I also considered Boris Diaw here, but it’s tough to pass on a 6’10” 24-year-old who averaged 8.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game on a team loaded with vets. Without Kevin Garnett in the playoffs, the C’s needed Perkins to step up his game and he responded with 11.9 points, 11.6 boards and 2.6 blocks per contest. He also did a pretty good job on Dwight Howard, who had his worst numbers of the playoffs against the Celtics.

8. David Lee, Knicks
30th pick in 2005
Isiah Thomas couldn’t make a good trade to save his life, but he could spot talent in the draft. Lee has turned out to be a steal with the last pick in the 2005 draft. He’s an athletic lefty whose best traits are his hustle and smarts. In just his fourth season, Lee averaged 16.0 points and 11.7 rebounds per game, which made him one of the most consistent double-double guys in the league. His stock is so high right now that the Knicks might be able to use him as trade bait in order to land Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. Maybe they’d be better off sticking with Lee…

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The NBA’s 68 worst contracts

The economy is really starting to take its toll on professional sports, and the NBA is no different. Bad contracts are bad even when the economy is pumping, but they really stand out in tough times like these. So I decided to look through the payrolls team-by-team to try to identify the worst contracts in the NBA. I expected to list 15-20 names, but I ended up scribbling down 68. That’s right, there are no fewer than 68 bad contracts in the NBA.

I didn’t include any of the players that are in the final year of their contracts because…well, what’s the point? They’ll be off the books in a few months anyway. Instead, I wanted to focus on those contracts that are going to haunt teams for years to come, so to be eligible, players have to have at least a year left on their current deals.

It’s tough to compare someone making superstar money to an average, everyday role player, so I split these 68 contracts up into three groups: the Overpaid Role Players, the Not-So-Super Stars and the Injury-Prones. I will rank them from least-worst to most-worst with the thinking that I wouldn’t trade the player for anyone further down the list but I would trade him for anyone previously mentioned. So, for example, if a guy is listed #7 within a particular group, I’m not trading him for anyone ranked #6-#1, but I would think seriously about moving him for a guy that is ranked #8+.

So let’s start with the role players and go from there…

(Note: In most cases, I don’t blame the player himself for his outrageous contract. The fault lies with the general manager that inked the guy to the deal. However, this rule goes out the window if the player has a history of only producing in his contract year – I’m looking at you, Tim Thomas.)

THE OVERPAID ROLE PLAYERS

Guys That I Wouldn’t Mind Having On My Team

36. Shane Battier (two years, $14.3 million)
6.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg
I know he’s supposed to be the “no-stat MVP,” but $7 million per season seems like a lot to pay for a defensive specialist who only gets 0.7 steals per game. Plus, when he shaves his head, you can almost see his brain.

35. Jason Maxiell (four years, $20 million)
5.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg
Maxiell’s Player Efficiency Rating (15.79) is above average. But why pay the guy if you aren’t going to play him?

34. Andres Nocioni (three years, $21.0 million)
10.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 41% FG%
Nocioni can ball, but $7 mil a season is a steep price to pay for 11 and 4. We’ll see if he blossoms now that he’s outside of Luol Deng’s shadow.

33. Nick Collison (two years, $13.2 million)
7.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg
You’d think this guy would have a killer 18-footer by now.

32. Ronny Turiaf (three years, $12.5 million)
5.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg
He plays hard, but any number of guys in the D-league and overseas that can do what he does at a fraction of the price.

I Only Want Him On My Team In A Contract Year

31. Tim Thomas (one year, $6.5 million)
9.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg
“Tiny” Tim is the poster boy for guys that only produce when they’re playing for a new contract. Ernie Grunfeld, GM of my beloved Bucks, signed him back in ’00 to a six-year deal worth $68 million and then, six underachieving years later, the Clippers were so enamored with his performance against them in the playoffs that inked him to a four-year deal worth $24 million. This clown has a career average of 11.7 points and 4.2 rebounds and he has made more than $84 million thus far. Sorry, I have to go throw up…

…okay, I’m back.

The Expiring Contracts

30. Darko Milicic (one year, $7.5 million)
6.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg
29. Mike James (one year, $6.5 million)
8.6 ppg, 3.2 apg
28. Antonio Daniels (one year, $6.6 million)
4.4 ppg, 2.8 apg
27. Earl Watson (one year, $6.6 million)
6.0 ppg, 5.7 apg, 37% FG%
26. Tony Battie (one year, $6.3 million)
4.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg
25. Brian Cardinal (one year, $6.8 million)
2.0 ppg, 1.8 rpg
24. Etan Thomas (one year, $7.4 million)
3.1 ppg, 2.6 rpg
23. Mark Blount (one year, $8.0 million)
3.9 ppg, 1.8 rpg
22. Jerome James (one year, $6.6 million)
3.0 ppg, 1.5 rpg
21. Kenny Thomas (one year, $8.8 million)
0.8 ppg, 1.9 rpg
20. Bobby Simmons (one year, $11.2 million)
8.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg
Expect to hear “__________’s expiring contract” a lot next February. Seriously, these guys will be involved in all sorts of trade scenarios, but in this economy, most teams will just hold onto them and let their salaries come off the cap. What’s sad is that most of these guys are useless, yet they’ll make more in one season than most of us will in our lifetimes.

Great, now I’m depressed.

All They Can Do Is Shoot, But That’s Something

19. Jason Kapono (two years, $12.9 million)
8.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg
18. Sasha Vujacic (two years, $10.5 million)
5.7 ppg, 1.6 apg
17. Daniel Gibson (three years, $12.5 million)
8.1 ppg, 38% FG%
16. Vladimir Radmanovic (two years, $13.4 million)
10.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.6 apg
15. Morris Peterson (two years, $12.2 million)
5.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg
After signing a three-year deal, setting himself up for life, Vujacic’s shooting numbers have dropped eight percent from the field and almost nine percent from three-point range. (Like he needed to be more annoying.) And I don’t think the Cavs had 38% shooting in mind when they inked Boobie to a long-term deal; the play of Delonte West has made Gibson expendable. As for Radmanovic, he is arguably the worst defender in the league. Really. Just watch him on that end of the court sometime. He’s totally lost. His awareness in NBA 2K9 should be zero.

One Good Year Does Not a Starting Point Guard Make

14. Marcus Banks (two years, $9.4 million)
2.7 ppg, 1.3 apg
13. Beno Udrih (four years, $26.7 million)
10.9 ppg, 4.3 apg
12. Marko Jaric (two years, $14. 7 million)
1.8 ppg, 0.9 rpg, 27% FG%
Sure, Udrih is overpaid and the Kings were dumb to sign him long-term. But the guy can run an offense and that’s still something. But I wonder — does Marko’s new bride (Victoria’s Secret model Adriana Lima, pictured below) know that he’s not getting any minutes for one of the worst teams in the league? Does she care? Does he care?

After looking at that picture, do I care?

The Not-So-Special Specialists

11. Reggie Evans (two years, $10 million)
2.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg
10. Jared Jeffries (two years, $13.4 million)
4.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg
Here we have the Rebounder and the Defender. Too bad that’s all either guy can do. Jeffries is a poor man’s Battier. (I don’t really know what that even means.)

The Big Stiffs

9. Darius Songaila (two years $9.3 million)
6.7 ppg, 2.6 rpg
8. Joel Pryzbilla (two years, $14.3 million)
5.2 ppg, 8.1 rpg
7. Erick Dampier (one year, $12.1 million)
5.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.3 bpg
6. Nazr Mohammed (two years, $13.4 million)
2.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg
5. Dan Gadzuric (two years, $14.0 million)
3.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg
Now that’s a list of overpaid backup centers. The Bucks drafted Andrew Bogut in June 2005 then sign Gadzuric to a long-term deal two months later. How does this make sense? Since when does being seven-foot and being able to get up and down the court in a reasonable amount of time entitle you to a multi-million dollar contract?

What In the World Were They Thinking?

4. Jamaal Tinsley (two years, $14.9 million)
No stats in 2008-09
The Pacers have been trying to get rid of Tinsley for a while now but they can’t find any takers. I wonder why…

3. Matt Carroll (four years, $16.4 million)
3.3 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 39% FG%
The Mavs had to take on Carroll’s brutal contract to get rid of the #1 guy on this list, so this is actually an improvement for Mark Cuban. Carroll is proof positive that if you can average double-digit points in your contract year for one of the worst teams in the league, you can parlay that into a deal worth $20 million. Right place, right time…

2. Luke Walton (four years, $21.6 million)
4.9 ppg, 2.5 apg, 2.5 rpg
I’m of the school that Luke wouldn’t have signed this big of a contract if his last name wasn’t “Walton.” Hell, if not for that family name, I’d argue that he wouldn’t even be in the NBA. He’s a 6’8” white dude who can’t shoot but I’m told that “he knows how to play the game.” Seriously, there are a half a dozen guys like that in my rec league (and they can shoot it better than he does).

1. DeSagana Diop (four years, $26.8 million)
3.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.8 bpg
How does a guy that has never averaged more than 3.3 points or 5.4 rebounds a game get a five-year deal worth $31 million? He’s a great shot-blocker, you say? His career high in blocks is 1.8 – that’s worth $6 million per season? Really? I thought America was a meritocracy…

THE (NOT-SO-SUPER)STARS

18. Vince Carter (two years, $33.6 million)
20.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 4.8 apg
Is he playing well? Absolutely. Is he worth every penny? Not so much. The Nets couldn’t give him away at the trade deadline.

17. Richard Jefferson (two years, $29.4 million)
18.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.4 apg, 43% FG%
He’s helped the Bucks stay competitive, but the franchise is in dire financial shape. He’s worth $10-$11 mil per season, not $15 million.

16. Rashard Lewis (three years, $58.7 million)
18.4 ppg, 5.9 rpg
Yes, he’s overpaid, but at least he can shoot – and he’s perfect for what Orlando wants to do.

15. Mike Dunleavy (two years, $20.4 million)
15.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.4 apg
Mike, Jr. finally lived up to his bloated contract last season and then he got hurt. Perfect. Man, it’s been a rough year for the Dunleavys.

14. Antawn Jamison (three years, $40.1 million)
21.6 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 2.0 apg
It’s hard to know how bad this contract will look in a year or two. He’s still producing, albeit for a bad team.

13. Andrei Kirilenko (two years, $34.3 million)
12.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 3.0 apg
This contract has looked awful for a long time now. He inked his deal before the arrival of Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams and the Jazz have been counting the minutes since.

12. Troy Murphy (two years, $23.0 million)
13.9 ppg, 11.8 rpg
Call me crazy, but at essentially the same price, I’d rather have Murphy for two years than the next guy for five.

11. Emeka Okafor (five years, $62.5 million)
14.1 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 1.7 bpg
Welcome to cap hell, Charlotte.

10. Andre Iguodala (five years, $68.6 million)
18.0 ppg, 5.4 apg, 6.0 rpg
Don’t get me wrong – Iggy is a solid player. Just not $13.7 mil-per-season solid.

9. Luol Deng (five years, $61.7 million)
14.1 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.9 apg
A 14/6 guy is worth $12 mil a year? Really? Someone call Drew Gooden and tell him he’s in for a payday this summer. (Relax, Bulls fans, at least Deng is just 23.)

8. Kirk Hinrich (three years, $26.5 million)
9.4 ppg, 4.2 apg, 43% FG%
What happened to him? His career was on the slide even before Derrick Rose came to town. This is a guy that is in desperate need of a change of scenery.

7. Larry Hughes (one year, $13.7 million)
11.9 ppg, 1.9 apg, 2.9 rpg
6. Ben Wallace (one year, $14.0 million)
3.0 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.4 bpg
Hey, at least these ridonkuous contracts only last one more year. I am sick and tired of talking about how they’re overpaid.

5. Stephen Jackson (four years, $35.6 million)
21.1 ppg, 6.4 apg, 41% FG%
4. Corey Maggette (four years, $39.7 million)
19.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg
While Jackson’s numbers are decent, he’s a volume shooter and he’s already 30 – imagine how bad this contract is going to look in a couple of years. The same goes for Maggette. Don’t forget that playing in Golden State inflates those numbers. Geesh!

3. Baron Davis (four years, $53.8 million)
15.3 ppg, 7.9 apg, 3.5 rpg, 36% FG%
I wonder if the Clips want a do-over. Davis is a good player, but not $13.5 million-per-year good. What’s sad is that I really like watching Davis play. He should be playing for a contender. Elton Brand really did a number on this guy.

2. Zach Randolph (two years, $33.3 million)
21.8 ppg, 10.5 rpg
Don’t be fooled by those numbers. Randolph is a $9 million-per-year player in a $16 million-per-year contract. He makes a killing scoring and rebounding for terrible teams.

1. Peja Stojakovic (two years, $27.7 million)
13.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg
Sure, he’s averaging almost 14 points per game, but he’s shooting just 40% from the field. This trade actually forced the Hornets to try to give their third-best player, Tyson Chandler, away. Since they acquired Peja, New Orleans has had absolutely no cap flexibility. This is the move that may ultimately keep the Hornets out of the Finals, at least for the next couple of seasons. They rolled the dice that Peja could still shoot and it came up snake eyes.

THE INJURY-PRONES

14. Shaquille O’Neal (one year, $21 million)
18.2 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg
Yes, he’s having a good year, but he’s not worth $21 million. While the next guy is the better center, at least Shaq has proven he can take a team to the Promised Land. The Cavs may ultimately regret not adding him at the expense of Wally Szczerbiak and Sasha Pavlovic at the trade deadline.

13. Yao Ming (two years, $34.1 million)
19.8 ppg, 9.6 rpg
Don’t get me wrong – Yao has a great game. I love it. But I don’t think you can build around a guy who has missed more than a third of his games in the last three seasons. And his foot problems are only going to get worse, right?

12. Nene Hilario (three years, $33.5 million)
14.8 ppg, 7.9 rpg
He’s productive when he plays, but this guy is an injury waiting to happen. Prior to this season, he missed 40% of Denver’s games over his first six years.

11. Andrew Bogut (five years, $60.0 million)
11.7 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 1.0 bpg
I like Bogut’s hard-nosed style, but it seems to be taking its toll on his body. He has missed more than a quarter of his games over the past three seasons. Now he has back pain — that’s easy to fix, right?

10. Jason Richardson (two years, $27.8 million)
17.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.2 apg
J-Rich is a solid player. Just not $13.9 mil-per-season solid.

9. Michael Redd (two years, $35.3 million)
21.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.7 apg
Over the last three years, Redd has missed 36% of the Bucks’ games. I think it’s safe to say he’s injury-prone. I do love this former second round pick, but he’s not living up to his contract. I want to see an efficent, 18+ point season with the Bucks getting out of the first round of the playoffs. Then I’ll be happy.

8. Jermaine O’Neal (one year, $23.0 million)
13.5 ppg, 6.9 rpg
In the previous four seasons, O’Neal has missed 37% of his team’s games. Wowsers. The guy still has skills, if he can only stay upright.

7. Tracy McGrady (one year, $22.5 million)
15.6 ppg, 5.0 apg, 4.4 rpg, 39% FG%
One more year and the Rockets will be able to free themselves from this albatross of a contract. Remember when people used to argue about who was the better shooting guard – Kobe or T-Mac? That seems like such a loooooong time ago.

6. Kenyon Martin (two years, $32.2 million)
12.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg
Hey, at least K-Mart is healthy and contributing! (Nugget fans know what I’m talking about.) Martin has one of those contracts that was untradeable the moment he signed it. Then he played a total of 58 games in the ’05-’06 and ’06-’07 seasons. Believe me, Denver fans are happy for the 12 and 6.

5. Samuel Dalembert (two years, $25.1 million)
6.3 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 1.8 bpg
As time goes on, this contract looks more and more ridiculous.

4. Elton Brand (four years, $66.2 million)
13.8 ppg, 8.8 rpg
Methinks the basketball gods are giving Elton a little payback for leaving Baron Davis high and dry. Karma is a bitch.

3. Eddy Curry (two years, $21.8 million)
2.0 ppg, 2.0 rpg
A 6’11” center who can’t rebound or stay healthy? Great. His game has such a bad rep that he’s been unmovable for years.

2. Monta Ellis (five years, $55 million)
13.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.8 apg
Yet another bright career gets derailed by a wild moped ride in Mississippi. How many times does this happen before we all stand up and say “NO” to Mississippi moped rides?

1. Gilbert Arenas (five years, $96.4 million)
No stats in 2008-09
To think, the Wizards actually seemed happy to be getting Agent Zero at a “hometown discount.” But who exactly were they bidding against? If he doesn’t return to his All-NBA form, the franchise will be hamstrung for years to come. This is yet another Ernie Grunfeld gem.

Picking the 2009 NBA All-Stars

The NBA All-Star Game is part meritocracy and part popularity contest. First, the fans vote, and the top five vote getters – two guards, two forwards and a center – from each conference are the starters. Then the coaches vote on the remaining seven reserves for each team.

The current vote count can be seen here, but I thought I’d put together my own list – five starters and seven reserves – for each team. To me, when it comes to naming All-Stars a winning record is just as important as great stats, so given two players with similar numbers, I’m probably going to give the nod to the guy on the better team. I’ll list the player’s Player Efficiency Rating, which gives a nice overview of the guy’s per-minute statistical production this season.

And off we go…

EASTERN CONFERENCE STARTERS

Dwyane Wade, Heat
PER: 29.14
D-Wade is back with a vengeance. He’s averaging 29.0 points, 7.1 assists and 5.1 rebounds, and is (almost) single-handedly keeping the Heat in the playoff hunt. With 24% accuracy, I don’t know why he’s shooting so many threes (3.0 per game), but that’s just nitpicking. He’s third in the league in steals (2.25).

Joe Johnson, Hawks
PER: 19.84
JJ is averaging 22.3 points, 6.1 assists and 4.6 rebounds, and has the Hawks in a battle for the #4 spot in the East. His three-point shooting is down two points, but his overall FG% is up a point. Remember when everyone laughed at the Hawks for giving up future MIP Boris Diaw and two first round picks for him?

LeBron James, Cavs
PER: 32.04
LeBron is the front-runner for the MVP thus far. He’s posting 27.7 points, 6.6 assists and 6.6 rebounds a game. His numbers are down, but that’s because the Cavs can afford to rest him an additional four minutes per game. It’s great to see his FG% over 50% (50.8%) and FT% approaching 80% (78.8%). LeBron has always been a statistical stud, but it’s the Cavs’ stellar record that has him leading the MVP race.

Kevin Garnett, Celtics
PER: 20.87
KG’s scoring is down, but given the Raptors’ struggles, he’s still the most deserving PF (over Chris Bosh) in the East. His numbers are virtually identical to last season other than a mysterious drop in free throw attempts per game (-2.1). Is KG still taking the ball to the hole?

Dwight Howard, Magic
PER: 25.71
I’d like to see Howard’s free throw accuracy (57.3%) improve, but it’s hard to argue with Orlando’s success this season. Howard is averaging 20.1 points and leads the league in rebounding with 13.8 per game. He also leads the league in blocks (3.28).

EASTERN CONFERENCE RESERVES

Devin Harris, Nets
PER: 24.88
From a statistical standpoint, Harris is outplaying all other Eastern Conference guards save for Dwyane Wade, so he is deserving of a spot in the starting lineup. However, Joe Johnson’s Hawks are playing quite a bit better, so Harris will have to settle for a spot on the bench.

Chris Bosh, Raptors
PER: 23.37
The Raptors are struggling this season but it’s not the fault of Bosh, whose numbers are virtually identical to last season. He has averaged at least 22.3 points and 8.7 rebounds in each of the last four years.

Paul Pierce, Celtics
PER: 18.32
Despite the Celtics recent struggles, The Truth is still a no-brainer All-Star pick. He’s averaging 19.0 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.7 assists and while his FG% is down a smidgen, he’s over 40% from long range for the first time since the 2001-02 season.

Danny Granger, Pacers
PER: 21.93
Granger is clearly one of the league’s best young small forwards. He’s averaging 26.4 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists, while shooting a solid 46% from the field. The Pacers aren’t great, but they’re competitive, and Granger is the main reason why. Moreover, he’s averaging an eye-popping 33.3 points per game in January.

Tayshaun Prince, Pistons
PER: 16.37
The Pistons have the fifth-best record in the East right now and deserve to have a player on the All-Star team. Prince’s numbers aren’t eye-popping, but he averages 7.3 points per game and contributes in all areas despite having to cover the opponent’s best perimeter player every night.

Jameer Nelson, Magic
PER: 19.91
Given that Orlando has virtually the same personnel as last season, it’s a bit of a surprise at how much better Nelson is playing. His ppg jumped from 10.9 to 16.4 and his FG% jumped from 46.9% to 50.4%, which is tremendous for a guard. His three-point shooting (43.8%) is outstanding. Rashard Lewis (PER: 18.05) may get the nod, but I think Nelson is more deserving.

Vince Carter, Nets
PER: 21.89
I’m not a huge fan of Vinsanity, but he’s averaging 22.7 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.9 assists while shooting better than 40% from long range. Truthfully, this spot could go to a number of guys from better teams – Rajon Rondo, Mo Williams, Allen Iverson, Mike Bibby, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Rashard Lewis – but Carter smokes them all numbers-wise.

Bubbling under: Rajon Rondo, Mo Williams, Allen Iverson, Caron Butler, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Mike Bibby, Jose Calderon, Rashard Lewis

WESTERN CONFERENCE STARTERS

Chris Paul, Hornets
PER: 30.53
After a rough 5-5 start, Paul has the Hornets back in the thick of the hunt for the #2 playoff spot in the West. He has the second-highest PER in the league and is averaging 20.4 points and 11.3 assists per game. He also leads the league in steals (2.82) and is on the short list of serious MVP candidates.

Kobe Bryant, Lakers
PER: 25.48
Kobe’s minutes are down 3.0 per game, which explains why his numbers have taken a bit of a dip. Still, he’s averaging 27.0 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.6 assists, and his FG% is up over 48% for the first time in his career. The Lakers have the best record in the West and Kobe would be favored to win his second consecutive MVP if not for the Cavs’ winning ways.

Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks
PER: 23.78
If Carmelo Anthony hadn’t gotten injured, he might have earned this spot, but Dirk’s Mavs are just three games back of the Nuggets in the standings and he’s having another great season. He is averaging 25.3 points and 8.4 rebounds, and is shooting better than 40% from the field.

Tim Duncan, Spurs
PER: 24.33
Two words: sustained excellence. TD is averaging 20.4 points and 10.1 rebounds while shooting almost 52% from the field. Plus, he’s one of the best (if not the best) defensive big men in the game.

Yao Ming, Rockets
PER: 22.67
Yao has had to play without Tracy McGrady for a good portion of the season, but the Rockets are right in the thick of the playoff hunt in the West. He leads the Rockets in scoring, rebounding, blocks and is shooting almost 87% from the free throw line.

WESTERN CONFERENCE RESERVES

Brandon Roy, Blazers
PER: 25.06
Roy’s scoring is up to 22.8 points per game this season (from 19.1 ppg last season) in no small part due to his increased accuracy (+2.1%) from the field. The Blazers look like a playoff team and Roy is a big reason why.

Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets
PER: 18.18
‘Melo’s Nuggets are playing well even though his FG% has taken a dive to 43.7% this season. His scoring is down, but he’s rebounding well (7.3) and his three-point accuracy is up to 42%, which is a huge improvement.

Tony Parker, Spurs
PER: 23.23
Parker is setting career highs in points (21.3) and assists (6.7), he’s never been more accurate from long range (40.0%) or from the charity stripe (81.5%). Manu Ginobili has been solid, but Parker is the second-most deserving Spur this season.

Pau Gasol, Lakers
PER: 22.49
Despite the return of Andrew Bynum, Gasol’s rebounding (9.4) as well as he ever has, and he’s continuing to thrive in his role as Kobe’s sidekick. He’s averaging 17.8 points and is shooting over 55% from the field.

Amare Stoudemire, Suns
PER: 22.44
Stoudemire is averaging 21.8 points and 8.5 rebounds, and is shooting almost 55% from the field. Even though the Suns have slowed the pace down, Stoudemire’s numbers are still stellar.

Chauncey Billups, Nuggets
PER: 20.98
Billups is averaging 18.7 points and 6.8 assists for the Nuggets, but more importantly he has brought a defensive culture to Denver (and that’s not easy to do).

Shaquille O’Neal, Suns
PER: 23.75
A revitalized Shaq is producing 17.4 points and 9.0 rebounds in just 30.1 minutes. There are a number of players that could replace him on the All-Star team, but I think everyone around the league recognizes just how good Shaq is when he’s motivated.

Bubbling under: Manu Ginobili, Al Jefferson, David West, Paul Millsap, LaMarcus Aldridge, Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko, Mehmet Okur

Voting continues at NBA.com through January 19th.

1/22/09 Update: The starters have been announced.

2008 NBA Preview: #5 Utah Jazz

Offseason Movement: The Jazz exercised a couple of no-brainer contract options on Ronnie Brewer and Paul Millsap, and signed Deron Williams to a long-term deal. The other main acquisition was center Kosta Koufos via the draft.
Keep Your Eye On: Carlos Boozer
Boozer has another year on his deal, but it’s a player option, and considering he can make more on the open market, he’ll probably opt out. That doesn’t mean that he’s leaving Utah, but given Boozer’s history, the team is justifiably worried. Utah has a lot of money tied up in Andrei Kirilenko (three years, $49 million) and it would be much better spent on a new deal for Boozer. Complicating matters is Mehmet Okur, who can also opt out next summer. The good news is that the Jazz locked up Deron Williams, so that should encourage both Boozer and Okur to stay.
The Big Question: Is this group good enough to get over the hump?
Utah has a nice roster, but it’s unclear if the current core – Williams, Boozer, Okur, AK-47 – is good enough to get past the West’s elite. Can Williams and Boozer raise their respective games? Will another player (Brewer, Koufos) turn into a star?
Outlook: The Jazz are right on the cusp and they’ll always play hard for Jerry Sloan, so they’ll be in the thick of things come playoff time. That means that they’re likely to advance to the Western Conference Semis or Western Conference Finals and meet a roadblock like the Lakers, Hornets or Spurs. I’d like to see Jerry Sloan make another trip to the Finals, but the odds are against that happening this season.