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      Fade Material: College Football Week 2 Predictions

      September 10, 2011 /
      University of Alabama head coach Nick Saban talks with Trent Richardson (3) during the first half of play against the University of Louisville in their NCAA football game at Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington, Kentucky, October 3, 2009. REUTERS/John Sommers II (UNITED STATES SPORT FOOTBALL)

      My “Fade Material” in Week 1 actually wasn’t fade material at all, as I went 3-1 with my picks. I hit Boise State, Minnesota and Stanford, while Oregon ruined my shot at a perfect week. It’s a shame too because if you can’t trust a Duck, who can you trust?

      TCU @ Air Force, 3:30PM ET
      The Horned Frogs are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games against Air Force and 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss. The Falcons, meanwhile, are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win and 1-6 ATS in their lat seven conference games. I just don’t see TCU starting the year 0-2 and this is practically a pick’em.
      THE PICK: TCU -1

      Alabama @ Penn State, 3:30PM ET
      The Crimson Tide are 7-0 against the spread in their last seven non-conference games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in September. They’re also 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and 4-1 ATS in their lat five games as a favorite. ‘Bama proved last year that Penn State didn’t belong on the same field as them and while things could be different this time around with the Nittany Lions play at home, I like the Tide defense to dominate in this one.
      THE PICK: ALABAMA -10

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      College Football, External Sports

      Tommy Rees is the absolute right choice against Michigan

      September 10, 2011 /

      Much was made of the quarterback change at Notre Dame earlier this week as Brian Kelly named Tommy Rees the starter over Dayne Crist.

      It wasn’t much of a surprise after Rees came into the game for Crist in Notre Dame’s 23-20 opening week loss against South Florida, and was much more productive. But for the first night game in the Big House, against a defense like Michigan’s, Rees is the perfect choice.

      Rees is unflappable, meaning the moment of playing under the lights in front of 110,000 screaming banshees won’t bother him. Rees’ first three starts were at Notre Dame, Yankee Stadium and USC. He’s used to big-time environments. Then again, anyone who plays at Notre Dame is.

      He also doesn’t get down on himself when he makes mistakes. A year ago, he threw three interceptions against USC, but he never got down on himself, and made plays down the stretch to help the Irish pick up their first win against USC since the Bob Davie era. It’s part of the reason Notre Dame fans have taken to subtly comparing him to Joe Montana (this is beyond a stretch, but when you haven’t competed for a national title since 1993, sometimes you stretch).

      Rees is going to make mistakes, but Crist would have made them, too. Rees will be able to overcome those mistakes in front of 110,000 people, while Crist hasn’t shown the ability to do that, even on his homefield.

      But Rees being the right pick goes beyond the mental aspect of the game. Crist has the bigger arm and is a better runner than Rees, but he isn’t quick to make a decision as his three-star counterpart. Against Michigan’s secondary, there are going to be openings, and Rees will see them early and exploit them. A less decisive quarterback would miss those. Michigan’s also going to bring a lot of heat, which again forces the quarterback to make quick decisions.

      Rees is likely to be the guy for the rest of the season, but even if Crist had played well against South Florida, I feel like Rees would have been a better choice in this game. Does that mean Notre Dame is going to win the game? That will depend more on their defense than anything, but it definitely gives them a good shot.

      College Football, External Sports

      Could Manning’s injury open the door for the Colts to take Luck next year?

      September 9, 2011 /
      Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck celebrates his third quarter touchdown pass to receiver Coby Fleener during play against Virginia Tech in the 2011 Discover Orange Bowl NCAA football game in Miami January 3, 2011. REUTERS/Hans Deryk (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

      In 1997, David Robinson suffered a broken foot in preseason and wind up missing the entire regular season for the San Antonio Spurs, who were devastated by the injury. But Robinson’s misfortunate actually turned out to be a massive blessing in disguise for he and the Spurs.

      San Antonio was so bad that season that they wound up having the No. 1 pick in the 1997 NBA Draft, allowing them to select Tim Duncan out of Wake Forest. Four championships, two MVP awards, and 13 All-Star selections later and Duncan is viewed as one of the greatest players to have ever donned a NBA uniform.

      And none of it would have happened had Robinson not broke his foot that year, which is a little morbid when you think about it but hey, it worked out for everyone in the end. (Robinson won two titles playing alongside Duncan.)

      If the Indianapolis Colts wind up having a wretched season due to Peyton Manning’s neck injury, they may find themselves in a somewhat similar situation. Granted, it’s too early to tell how long Manning will be sidelined after having his second neck surgery in less than four months. Maybe he’ll return halfway through the season and lead the Colts to the playoffs once again. Or maybe he’ll be out all season and will return next year at full strength.

      Or maybe he’ll never play again.

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      College Football, External Sports, NFL

      Is progress being made in the NBA labor talks?

      September 9, 2011 /
      The president of the National Basketball Association players’ association, Derek Fisher, speaks to reporters after taking part in contract negotiations between the NBA and the players association in New York June 30, 2011. The NBA was on the verge of its first work stoppage in 13 years after negotiations over a new labor deal collapsed hours before the current collective bargaining agreement expires, the union representing players said on Thursday. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT EMPLOYMENT BUSINESS BASKETBALL)

      ESPN’s TrueHoop dissected comments from player representative Derek Fisher and wonders if the two sides are holding something back:

      The two sides have agreed not to characterize the talks to the media. And in the spirit of keeping that promise, Stern and Fisher peppered their talks with let’s-not-get-carried-away language. Stern said, “I don’t know if it’s positive or negative,” that the groups’ meeting will expand next week. Similarly, Fisher said, “It doesn’t imply that we’re somehow on the verge,” and added that, “We still haven’t found that place where we can come out and say here’s where we are, here’s where progress is being made.”

      But it’s hard to talk for 15 unscripted minutes, as Fisher did, without dropping some hints as to what has happened behind closed doors.

      The most alarming of the hints came when Fisher explained expanding the meetings: “From our perspective, we want to make sure that our executive committee members who aren’t in the room are able to really fully understand the deal, the deal points, all the information that’s being thrown around the room, all the ideas that we’re going back and forth with.”

      A deal? Deal points? There are deal points?

      The post has more positive quotes from Fisher which do sound encouraging.

      Is it possible that the NBA could reach a deal soon? It doesn’t seem likely given the reported chasm between the two sides, but compared to media attention surrounding the NFL labor negotiations, the NBA and NBAPA have been able to negotiate in relative anonymity.

      A month ago I would have pegged the chances of the season starting on time somewhere in the 0%-5% range. Now I’d give the two sides a 15%-20% of coming to an agreement by mid-October.

      External Sports, NBA, News

      Sixteen Questions for 16 NFL Playoff Contenders

      September 8, 2011 /
      Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning watches his team play the San Diego Chargers from the sidelines during the fourth quarter of their NFL game in Indianapolis November 28, 2010. REUTERS/Brent Smith (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

      After tonight there are no more predictions, no more projections and no more speculation. After tonight, the NFL season will have begun and it’s time to put the pre–season prognosticating to rest and let teams settle things on the field.

      But for one last time before the games start counting for real, let’s examine what could potentially trip up contenders in both conferences. Below are 16 postseason contenders for the 2011 NFL season, along with 16 questions that revolve around concerns that that team has heading into the new year.

      Patriots: What about the last line of defense?
      The Patriots did a fantastic job this offseason addressing their need for more pass-rushers. But Bill Belichick may have created another weakness by leaving himself awfully thin at safety with the release of veterans Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders. Granted, Meriweather was less than impressive a year ago and Sanders has been injury prone throughout the years. For Meriweather, he often took bad angles to the ball last season and was caught out of position numerous times throughout the year. But in releasing both he and Sanders, Belichick is putting a lot of faith in Patrick Chung and 2010 rookie free agent Sergio Brown to man both safety positions. If Chung and Brown stay healthy and hold their own, then Belichick will once again look like a genius in his personnel decisions. If they falter, it doesn’t appear as though Belichick has left himself with a plan B.

      Jets: Can Sanchez step up in the regular season?
      If Mark Sanchez played as well in the regular season as he has in the postseason then maybe the Jets wouldn’t have to win playoff games on the road every year. Sanchez did take a step forward in his development last year but his consistency week-to-week remains an issue. This is a Jets team that could contend for a Super Bowl berth but not if Sanchez doesn’t continue to raise the level of his play. The goal for Rex Ryan and his team shouldn’t be the Super Bowl: it should be supplanting the Patriots in the AFC East first. Then they can set their sights a little higher.

      Colts: How long will Peyton be out?
      There’s no bigger question that needs to be answered for the Colts. With Manning they’ll once again be favored to win the AFC South. Without him they’ll probably sink to the bottom of the division. Kerry Collins may be able to keep this team afloat for a game or two, but without Manning the Colts will inevitably fall over a 16-game season. Hopefully for Indy’s sake Manning will return in a few weeks and more importantly, he’ll be close to 100-percent healthy. But there are reports that he’ll be out “a while” and if so, the next team on this list will have its shot to win the AFC South crown.

      Texans: Is the defense really fixed?
      Regular readers know that I fully believe this is the Texans’ year. I love the hiring of Wade Phillips, who has a long history of turning teams around in his first year as either head coach or defensive coordinator. This team also went a long way in shoring up a weakness with the signing of free agent cornerback Jonathan Joseph. But question still remain on that side of the ball. Is Mario Williams a linebacker? Can Kareem Jackson make strides in his second year? Will the safety position be a spot opponents can exploit? Arian Foster’s hamstring is a concern, as is whether or not Matt Schaub is the right man to get this team over the hump. But if the defense hasn’t been fixed then it won’t matter how much Foster or Schaub contribute because the Texans will fall short of expectations once again.

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      External Sports, NFL

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