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      Lombardi: Vick to wind up east of the Mississippi

      August 6, 2009 /

      Mike Lombardi of the National Football Post is reporting that free agent quarterback Michael Vick will likely sign with a team east of the Mississippi.

      Back to Vick. By the way, did you see him working out with those kids on the high school field? He looked good, throwing the ball around softly. In fact, I mentioned on the air that we should send him some new NFL footballs. Quarterbacks cannot be properly evaluated unless they have the right footballs. So where does this leave Vick? I put my thinking cap on (yes, Raiders fans, I have one) and, based on the east of the Mississippi clue, my best guess is Carolina. I still feel Jacksonville is in play, especially because they went after Andrew Walter and failed to land him, despite the fact their offensive coordinator, Dirk Koetter, coached Walter in college. Carolina badly needs a backup quarterback and has seen firsthand how Vick can create problems with his running skills. It makes sense, but it’s still a guess. I’ll keep working on the clues.

      One thought being floated around the web is that Vick will wind up in a southern state because dog fighting is more widely accepted in the south. But that kind of seems like a ridiculous, fabricated notion and I think any team that signs Vick will do so knowing that PETA will be on their front lawn as soon as he reports to their facilities.

      The Panthers are an interesting team that never crossed my mind in terms of who Vick could potentially sign with. Jake Delhomme just signed a new contract, but there’s nothing guaranteed about his play (see last year’s divisional round playoff loss to the Cardinals) and Vick could give Carolina better depth at the quarterback position.

      But again, it all comes down to which team is willing to take the risk of signing him. Financially he’s probably worth it, seeing as how he’s probably going to have to take the first offer presented to him. But any team that signs him risks alienating their fan base and turning their facilities into a daily media circus.

      NFL

      Fantasy Football: Quarterback By Committee (QBBC)

      August 5, 2009 /

      With the relative depth at the position, one approach to drafting a fantasy quarterback is to spend the first six or seven rounds drafting running backs, wide receivers and even a tight end. Then, in the eighth round or later, start to think about drafting a QB. Oftentimes, the players available in the 4th or 5th round won’t drastically outscore those QBs taken in the 8th or later.

      Why is this? Well, one reason is that, once fantasy owners have a starting QB, they tend to draft for depth at running back and wide receiver instead of drafting a backup QB, whom they know probably won’t sniff their starting lineup, except as a bye week fill in.

      Another reason is that most leagues require two starting running backs, which means 24 starting RBs in total (assuming a 12-team league). With more and more real NFL teams utilizing a RBBC, the position is much thinner than QB, which requires 12 fantasy starters of 32 real world starters.

      Typically, this results in good depth at the QB position, where the expected production from QB10 isn’t all that different than QB20. This year the QB10 off the board is Matt Ryan (7.01) while the QB20 is Joe Flacco (11.02). To illustrate my point, in a “high performance” scoring system (4 pts per pass TD, 1 pt per 20 yards passing), Footballguys projects Ryan to score 255 fantasy points and Flacco to score 235. Are those 20 fantasy points worth burning a 7th round pick instead of an 11th? Over a 17-game schedule, that works out to less than 1.2 fantasy points per week.

      In other words, it’s probably not going to cost you too many wins to go with Flacco instead of Ryan. In fact, you’ll probably be better off because the WR or RB you draft in the 7th round (Santana Moss?) is likely to vastly outperform his 11th-round counterpart (Michael Jenkins?). Footballguys projects Moss to outscore Jenkins by 75 points, a 4.4-point per week advantage. So by going with a Moss/Flacco combo instead of a Ryan/Jenkins combo, you’re gaining a net of 3.2 points per week.

      Going one step further: why not draft two middle- to late-round quarterbacks whose schedules mesh well together to create a Quarterback By Committee (QBBC)? That way, you can load up on RB, WR and TE talent in the first seven or eight rounds knowing that you’ll still be able to get good QB play from a couple of later picks by taking advantage of the ebbs and flows of each player’s schedule.

      To that end, I took the QB strength of schedule data from Footballguys and calculated the per week projections (by using the aforementioned Footballguys projected stats) for every starting quarterback in the league.

      Continue reading »

      Fantasy Football

      Jeff Passan’s 25 things you didn’t know about baseball

      August 5, 2009 /

      Skip

      Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports recently discovered FanGraphs, a great baseball website which uses complicated algorithms to determine attributes about players. Passan compiled 25 intriguing stats that the common fan would never realize unless they went to this site.

      1) The best fastball in baseball is 88.4 mph.

      And it belongs to Jarrod Washburn. He also throws a slider, cutter, curveball and changeup, but his average-velocity fastball is the dagger of the bunch. At 22.4 runs above average this year, it has been more effective than the fastest (Ubaldo Jimenez) and the slowest (Jamie Moyer). The most amazing part: Washburn’s fastball was actually 8.3 runs below average last year.

      6) The best pitch in baseball is a changeup, and you’ll never guess who throws it.

      Tim Lincecum came up heralded for his blazing fastball and hammer curveball, and neither is close to his best pitch. Lincecum’s changeup has been 27.5 runs above average this year, the highest total for any pitch and almost double the second-best change, Brian Tallet’s 14-runs-above special. It’s not like Lincecum piles up the runs above average by throwing the changeup egregiously. His 5.62 runs above per 100 changeups thrown is also the best for that pitch.

      15) One person has three pitches that are among the five best in runs above average.

      More evidence that Dan Haren is the business: He’s got the best splitter in baseball (7.2 runs above average), the fourth-best cutter (13.7 above average) and the fifth-best fastball (19.3 above average).

      25) Six players in baseball do not have a weakness on a specific pitch.

      As you know, Pujols isn’t one of them. Joe Mauer is an easy guess, and it would be correct. Same with Cabrera, who has the privilege of being the only player above average in all six categories – knuckleball included. Torii Hunter(notes) just makes it, one-one hundredth a run in the black on curveballs, and his center field peer Adam Jones(notes) joins him. The two National League representatives come from the Central Division. Cincinnati first baseman Joey Votto(notes) is a monster. The other is not. He hits .292. He slugs .386. He is the epitome of utility. The final player without a weakness: Skip Schumaker(notes).

      If I’m a professional baseball player, I’m checking this site everyday, as it reports useable statistics scouts are even missing. The people they have contributing to the site are all very serious and spend days mapping out an athlete’s progression or regression in various areas. Be sure to check out Passan’s entire list as well as the FanGraphs page.

      And what about that Dan Haren? These stats show that he has the stuff of a Cy Young-worthy pitcher. It should either be he or Lincecum who ends up with the award in the NL. While the Diamonbacks have no chance of making the playoffs, at least Haren can accomplish this feat on his own. As for Lincecum, his team is looking better by the day.

      MLB

      Training Camp Notes: Bush, Smith, Marshall

      August 5, 2009 /

      New Orleans Saints:
      Reggie Bush was limping noticeably after cutting Wednesday morning’s practice short, although he says his knee is fine. An MRI was taken on Bush’s knee earlier this week and apparently the results were positive, so the running back might just have to miss the next few days as a precaution. (FOX Sports.com)

      San Francisco 49ers:
      Apparently Alex Smith has pulled ahead in the starting quarterback derby according to 49ers beat writer Matt Maiocco. While Hill still seems like the more physically gifted quarterback between the two, it’s good to see that the franchise isn’t giving up on Smith (a former first overall pick) just yet. But Smith could also play himself out of the starting role in preseason, so stay tuned. (Matt Maicco on Twitter)

      Denver Broncos:
      Brandon Marshall continues to sit out with an undisclosed injury that he suffered last weekend. The Denver Post suggests that the injury was due to Marshall’s offseason hip surgery, although head coach Josh McDaniels refuses to comment on the situation. (Denver Post)

      Kansas City Chiefs:
      Head coach Todd Haley has reportedly been impressed with how good running back Larry Johnson has looked so far in camp. Teammates have apparently marveled at how good of shape the 29-year-old running back is in this season. Kansas City’s offensive line still needs some work, but it’s good enough to give a motivated LJ a chance to shine again this season. Maybe Johnson will be one of the surprise performers in ’09. (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

      Atlanta Falcons:
      Harry Douglas was carted off the field on Wednesday with a left leg injury and it apparently the situation doesn’t look good for the Falcons young receiver. Atlanta’s already in a heap of trouble at the wideout position with Roddy White holding out for a new contract. If Douglas has to miss significant time, GM Thomas Dimitroff (who traded promising WR Laurent Robinson to the Rams for half a can of original Pringles earlier this offseason) might be forced to get a deal done soon with White. (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)

      New York Jets:
      Quarterback Kellen Clemens continues to struggle with his pocket presence according to a report by the New York Daily News. Considering the Jets have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, this seemingly is a huge problem, even though it’s still early in camp. Maybe this news bodes well for rookie Mark Sanchez starting right away. (New York Daily News)

      Green Bay Packers:
      The Packers are having trouble signing first round pick B.J. Raji and according to ESPN 540’s Scott Wisniewski, the two sides are far apart on a deal. Rotowold speculates that Raji’s agent could be waiting on No. 10 overall pick (Raji was the No. 9 overall pick) Michael Crabtree to sign a deal with the 49ers before he gets something done for Raji in Green Bay.. (Rotoworld)

      NFL

      Minnesota judge says Williams Wall can play

      August 5, 2009 /

      A Minnesota judge has ruled that Vikings defensive tackles Kevin Williams and Pat Williams, who were appealing four game suspensions for violating the NFL’s policy on anabolic steroids, can play the entire season according to a report by the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.

      Per the report, the only way this ruling won’t be upheld is if a federal court claims jurisdiction over the Williams Wall’s lawsuit, challenging the NFL’s drug-testing procedures.

      (District Court Judge Gary) Larson stayed action in his courtroom until the U.S. District Court determines whether it has jurisdiction on some of the players’ claims. U.S. District Judge Paul Magnuson said the court does not, but a federal three-judge panel is hearing an appeal of his ruling in St. Paul on Aug. 18.

      If the federal court determines the case should be conducted in state court, Larson wrote, “it is not likely that the [Hennepin County] court would, or could force [the players] into trial during the middle of a playing season, based on the court’s schedule.”

      This is obviously huge for the Vikings, who have the best run defense in the NFL with the Williams Wall intact. If Minnesota hopes to build upon the success it had last year, than it’ll need their stud defensive tackles manning the interior of its defensive line all season.

      I wonder what this means for Saints defensive ends Will Smith and Charles Grant, who, like the Williams Wall, were given four-game suspensions as well. I’m assuming that since the Williams Wall will be able to play, so will Smith and Grant.

      This is the never-ending saga.

      NFL

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