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Will the Nationals Shut Down Stephen Starsburg? Should they?

It’s been one of the franchise’s biggest questions since before the season even began: Will the Washington Nationals shut down Stephen Strasburg? If so, after how many innings? And even if the team is in the midst (or at the front) of a pennant race?

Since the preseason, it’s been floating around that the team would shut down their ace after 160 innings. Strasburg underwent Tommy John surgery toward the end of the 2010 season before returning to throw just 24 Major League innings in September, 2011. Throughout the season, the Nationals have maintained the line that they would limit Strasburg’s innings regardless of their position in the standings. But now, with Strasburg having logged 127.1 innings and the Nats sitting at 67-43—the best record in the National League—the moment of truth has finally arrived.

Everyone and their mother has an opinion on the matter, but there’s really only a few whose voices really count: the team’s ownership, management (both on the field and behind the scenes), and the man himself. During an interview on last week on ESPN’s “Pardon the Interruption,” Nationals manager Davey Johnson indicated that the team is likely to shut Strasburg down after 160 innings, stating that the team was not willing to risk the 24 year-old Cy Young candidate’s future for one playoff race. Last year, the Nats did shut down another great young pitcher, Jordan Zimmerman, after 161.1 innings, but as Johnson acknowledged on “PTI,” the team was in third place at the time. Johnson said that it’s “a little different this year. But you do what’s best for the player, not only for today, but for the long haul.”

General manager Mike Rizzo has claimed that their is no “magic number” for Strasburg, and that he and he alone would decide when the pitcher’s season would end. But in July, Strasburg, who’s 12-5 with a 2.97 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 160 strikeouts, told MLB Network Radio that if the team tells him he can’t pitch in the playoffs or World Series, “They’re going to have to rip the ball out of my hands.”

If the Nationals do decide to sit Strasburg down, the rationale is simple: they hope the All-Star righty still has a good many years of baseball in front of him (and preferably in a Nationals’ uniform). That said, it’s still a gutsy move to pull on a fanbase that has yet to see a winning season. Their best year to date since moving to the nation’s capital was their first, 2005, when they went .500 exactly, 81-81. Sure the Nats have the best record in the NL, but there’s a whole lot of season left, and at the moment they’re only four games in front of the Atlanta Braves. If, without Strasburg, the team fell into a wild card spot, well, they’d be putting themselves in a real uncomfortable position. As I discussed two weeks ago, playoff spots are no longer created equal. Even the wild card team that wins the one-game play in is put at a significant disadvantage as they have to put up their two, three, and four pitchers against their opponent’s one, two, and three. If Strasburg is already out of the picture, then they’re another spot back in the rotation when the “real” playoffs begin. And that’s all assuming they win that 163rd game. How quickly will Nats fans forgive Mike Rizzo if they lose the play in game with someone other than Strasburg on the mound? If they weren’t already second guessing his decision, which they are, imagine the fallout of playing just one extra game in what’s looking like it can be “their year.”

Perhaps protecting Strasburg’s arm for years to come is the right decision, it’s not going to change our culture of instant gratification. And while it’s easy to understand why the team would rather wait and see what their ace can bring them in years to come, there is an argument to be made for letting him off the leash. On Saturday, ESPN’s Beth Ann Clyde and Eli Marger laid down their case for letting Strasburg play.

First off, Clyde and Marger analyzed the stats of the 20 pitchers since 2001 who have fit a profile similar to Strasburg’s: they had to be 23 years of age or younger and in the midst of their first season throwing more than 150 innings. They found that there was no major statistical differences in those pitchers’ performances from the beginning of the season through the end of July and August through the season’s end. Secondly, they looked at two cases of young pitchers who underwent Tommy John surgery—A.J. Burnett and the aforementioned Zimmerman—and argued that they actually got better than time, not worse. Of course, the Nationals may be worried less about stats and more about Strasburg getting hurt.

The fact is we won’t ever know which is the right way to go. Strasburg is likely going to sit, and we won’t ever know what could have been.

Follow the writer on Twitter @NateKreichman.

 

 

Brandon Weeden will start in Cleveland

This should be a very interesting NFL season for a lot of reasons, but watching rookies like Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Brandon Weeden begin the season as rookie starters will definitely make for an interesting storyline.

The Browns names Weeden the starter today, which wasn’t a surprise at all. He’s looked very good in camp, as has Trent Richardson and Josh Gordon. Expect a completely different offense in Cleveland.

NBC Fail

NBC is getting a ton of heat for not showing many of the premium sporting events in The Olympics live for the American audience. Given what they paid, it’s understandable that they want to maximize prime time viewership, and NBC’s defenders are quick to point out the record rating for these Olympics.

But the NBC strategy was seriously flawed for the 100 meter final featuring the fastest human Usain Bolt. The race took place live at around 4:30 PM EST on Sunday. Since when is a Sunday afternoon a bad time to show a premium sporting event? People all around the country would have made time on a Sunday afternoon to take in this epic final. I understand NBC’s general strategy, but this decision is an epic fail.

Curtis Martin, The Factory of Sadness, replacement refs and more NFL Quick-Hits

Every Sunday our NFL columnist Anthony Stalter provides his quick-hits from the week that was in the NFL.

+ Curtis Martin’s induction speech at the Hall of Fame this weekend was fascinating. He admitted to not wanting to play football after former Patriots head coach Bill Parcells called him on draft day back in 1995 and also lamented on how he didn’t have a strong passion for football, specifically running the ball. How naturally gifted do you have to be to rank fourth on the NFL’s all-time rushing list despite not being passionate about the game? That’s incredible. I’ve always felt that Martin never really got his due. He wasn’t the biggest or the fastest back but when only Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton and Barry Sanders are listed ahead of you on the all-time rushing list, you could play the game. And Curtis Martin could play the game, regardless of how passionate he was about the sport.

+ Roger Goodell made a great point recently about the situation with the replacement referees. Said Goodell, “You know, we had this experience in 2002, and the big impact we had in 2002 when we had the replacement officials was, you didn’t get a lot of the holding calls and some of the other calls.” First of all, who remembers that the NFL used replacement officials in 2002? It completely slipped my mind, which goes to show you that this situation isn’t as big a deal as some have made it. Yes, whether or not these replacement refs will be able to keep the peace is a major concern. Whether or not they’ll be abreast of all the rules is a key factor as well. But blown calls are going to happen whether there’s replacement refs or not. They’re part of the game. But as Goodell pointed out, the game might actually be more fast-paced because there will be fewer holding and pass interference calls, which are the two penalties that affect the game the most. Nobody wants to see a bunch of missed calls and rule-breaking but how many times have fans said, ‘Let the guys play!’ following a costly penalty? Well, those fans may get their wish thanks to these replacement officials.

+ The Cleveland Browns remain a fascinating story, although mostly for wrong reasons. Randy Lerner sold the team to Tennessee businessman Jimmy Haslam for more than $1 billion this week and as someone put it so perfectly on Twitter, who knew that the entire city of Cleveland was worth $1 billion, let alone the Browns? Now Haslman has to decide whether to make tweaks to the front office or completely gut the thing and start over. Granted, Mike Holmgren has had a rocky two-plus seasons as team president but it’s not as if he took over a playoff contender or even a franchise that was trending upwards. It’s as if the Browns have been stuck in purgatory for the better part of a decade and while some men enter, no man gets out alive. The thought of the Browns starting over yet again must frustrate fans. It would be nice to see Holmgren have at least another year or two to finish what he started but it would appear as though he won’t receive that opportunity. Then again, when you spend $1 billion on a football team you can do whatever you want with it. Browns fans can only hope that Haslam has a clear vision for what he wants the team to accomplish in the next three to five years because if not, this franchise will continue to flirt with the very definition of insanity.

+ Speaking of The Factory of Sadness, the loss of Chris Gocong is huge. The weakside linebacker has been diagnosed with a ruptured right Achilles’ tendon and is done for the season. He was a 16-game starter each of the past two years for the Browns, whose front seven continues to take hit after hit this offseason. Hopefully Ahtyba Rubin won’t suffer any setbacks after having surgery to repair a slight pelvic tear in June, because if not Cleveland’s run defense will be even worse this year than it was a season ago.

+ Robert Gallery announced his retirement on Saturday. His eight-year NFL career ended with zero All-Pro nominations and zero Pro Bowls. He played for two different organizations including six seasons with the Oakland Raiders, who drafted him with the second overall pick in 2004. Some would say Gallery shouldn’t be considered among the top 20 or 25busts of all time but how could he not? When the Raiders eventually kicked him inside to guard he had a serviceable career. But he was drafted to be a left tackle, one of the most vital positions in football. It wasn’t like Oakland took him in the middle rounds, moved him to guard after he struggled on the outside and were happy they at least got six serviceable years out of him. No, they thought he was going to anchor their O-line for years to come. There have been many draft busts throughout the years and you wouldn’t have to strain very hard to find 25 players that were bigger flubs than Gallery. But he at least deserves mention considering that back in 2004 he was viewed as a future Pro Bowler and a can’t-miss prospect (not that those exist).

+ I had an opportunity to attend the Rams’ “scrimmage” on Saturday. I put quotation marks around the word “scrimmage” because it was more of a practice. While walking out of the Edward Jones Dome the first thing that struck me was how under whelmed I was while watching the workout. Thanks to Jeff Fisher, there’s a lot of optimism building in St. Louis right now and there’s no doubt this is a much improved Rams team. That said, the first-team offensive line looked inconsistent, as did Sam Bradford, rookie running back Isaiah Pead and most of the receivers. Danny Amendola dropped at least three passes during the workout, and he’s normally as sure-handed as they come. But after thinking about it some more, what did I really expect? The Rams have only been practicing for about a week and Saturday was just the third padded practice that the team partook in. Half the roster is new, the head coach is new, the offensive coordinator is new, and the position coaches are all new. That was not going to be a well-oiled machine at the Dome, and it wasn’t. It’s going to take some time but Fisher will put his stamp on things because he’s a good coach and he’s surrounded himself with a great staff. The key is that the Rams are building some excitement around the team and eventually, the roster will be good enough to compete.

+ Mike Wallace’s holdout situation has been the focal point in Pittsburgh this offseason but one of the more captivating storylines is Todd Haley. The former Chiefs head coach takes over for Bruce Arians at offensive coordinator and the early reports have all been positive. Haley is going to allow the Pittsburgh receivers to improvise and react to what the defense is doing, which plays extremely well into Ben Roethlisberger’s freelancing ways. But Haley isn’t exactly a mild-mannered coach. He’s intense and it’s going to be interesting to see how the dynamics play out between him and Big Ben, who has never been afraid to speak his mind when it comes to the way his offense is being ran. The marriage could work as long as the Steelers’ offense doesn’t suffer any hiccups and hey, for the first time in a long time the offensive line is trending up. But the situation could also be a train wreck if the combustible Haley doesn’t mesh with Roethlisberger.

+ There are many signs that point to Chris Johnson having a bounce back year in Tennessee, none bigger than him reporting to camp on time and in shape after he skipped offseason workouts last year due to a contract holdout. But there’s another reason that Johnson should rebound and his name is Steve Hutchinson. Tennessee’s offensive line struggled with run-blocking last year, particularly from the interior. Hutchinson is getting long in the tooth but he’s an upgrade over what the Titans had last year and he reportedly has already made a positive impact on his teammates. Johnson should enjoy running behind the future Hall of Famer this season.

+ Yesterday was a great day for former Saints and Chiefs offensive tackle Willie Roaf, so I hate to focus on the negative. But how in the name of Zeus did it take Roaf two tries to be elected into the Hall of Fame? He was an 11-time Pro Bowler, six-time All-Pro Selection and one of the most dominant tackles to ever don a NFL uniform. He swallowed defensive linemen whole with his massive frame and perfect technique. It’s a sin that he wasn’t a first-ballot selection but it’s great to see Roaf get his due.

+ Chris Doleman was Michael Strahan before there was Michael Strahan. Not a ton of flash to his game ; he just got the quarterback and he did so on a consistent basis. And you know what, defensive ends will always be graded and measured by sacks but Doleman was truly an all-around player. Whether lined up as an outside linebacker or with his hand in the dirt, the guy played the run as well as he did the pass.

+ As the Saints get ready to take on the Cardinals in Sunday night’s Hall of Fame game, the focus will once again be back on the bounty scandal. But keeping it on the field, it’s going to be extremely interesting to see what kind of impact Steve Spagnuolo can make in his first year as defensive coordinator for the Saints. Spags wasn’t a very good head coach but the one thing the Rams did well during his time in St. Louis was rush the passer. Giants fans are also well aware that Spags brought the heat but does he have enough weapons in New Orleans? Will Smith is suspended for four games and unless Sedrick Ellis or Cam Jordan play over their heads New Orleans could have issues generating pressure. And considering the Falcons are installing more of a vertical offense, the Bucs’ offense will be more physical under new head coach Greg Schiano, and the Panthers bring an explosive dynamic to the field thanks to Cam Newton, the Saints’ defense could really struggle this season despite Spagnuolo’s previous success.

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