It’s been one of the franchise’s biggest questions since before the season even began: Will the Washington Nationals shut down Stephen Strasburg? If so, after how many innings? And even if the team is in the midst (or at the front) of a pennant race?

Since the preseason, it’s been floating around that the team would shut down their ace after 160 innings. Strasburg underwent Tommy John surgery toward the end of the 2010 season before returning to throw just 24 Major League innings in September, 2011. Throughout the season, the Nationals have maintained the line that they would limit Strasburg’s innings regardless of their position in the standings. But now, with Strasburg having logged 127.1 innings and the Nats sitting at 67-43—the best record in the National League—the moment of truth has finally arrived.

Everyone and their mother has an opinion on the matter, but there’s really only a few whose voices really count: the team’s ownership, management (both on the field and behind the scenes), and the man himself. During an interview on last week on ESPN’s “Pardon the Interruption,” Nationals manager Davey Johnson indicated that the team is likely to shut Strasburg down after 160 innings, stating that the team was not willing to risk the 24 year-old Cy Young candidate’s future for one playoff race. Last year, the Nats did shut down another great young pitcher, Jordan Zimmerman, after 161.1 innings, but as Johnson acknowledged on “PTI,” the team was in third place at the time. Johnson said that it’s “a little different this year. But you do what’s best for the player, not only for today, but for the long haul.”

General manager Mike Rizzo has claimed that their is no “magic number” for Strasburg, and that he and he alone would decide when the pitcher’s season would end. But in July, Strasburg, who’s 12-5 with a 2.97 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 160 strikeouts, told MLB Network Radio that if the team tells him he can’t pitch in the playoffs or World Series, “They’re going to have to rip the ball out of my hands.”

If the Nationals do decide to sit Strasburg down, the rationale is simple: they hope the All-Star righty still has a good many years of baseball in front of him (and preferably in a Nationals’ uniform). That said, it’s still a gutsy move to pull on a fanbase that has yet to see a winning season. Their best year to date since moving to the nation’s capital was their first, 2005, when they went .500 exactly, 81-81. Sure the Nats have the best record in the NL, but there’s a whole lot of season left, and at the moment they’re only four games in front of the Atlanta Braves. If, without Strasburg, the team fell into a wild card spot, well, they’d be putting themselves in a real uncomfortable position. As I discussed two weeks ago, playoff spots are no longer created equal. Even the wild card team that wins the one-game play in is put at a significant disadvantage as they have to put up their two, three, and four pitchers against their opponent’s one, two, and three. If Strasburg is already out of the picture, then they’re another spot back in the rotation when the “real” playoffs begin. And that’s all assuming they win that 163rd game. How quickly will Nats fans forgive Mike Rizzo if they lose the play in game with someone other than Strasburg on the mound? If they weren’t already second guessing his decision, which they are, imagine the fallout of playing just one extra game in what’s looking like it can be “their year.”

Perhaps protecting Strasburg’s arm for years to come is the right decision, it’s not going to change our culture of instant gratification. And while it’s easy to understand why the team would rather wait and see what their ace can bring them in years to come, there is an argument to be made for letting him off the leash. On Saturday, ESPN’s Beth Ann Clyde and Eli Marger laid down their case for letting Strasburg play.

First off, Clyde and Marger analyzed the stats of the 20 pitchers since 2001 who have fit a profile similar to Strasburg’s: they had to be 23 years of age or younger and in the midst of their first season throwing more than 150 innings. They found that there was no major statistical differences in those pitchers’ performances from the beginning of the season through the end of July and August through the season’s end. Secondly, they looked at two cases of young pitchers who underwent Tommy John surgery—A.J. Burnett and the aforementioned Zimmerman—and argued that they actually got better than time, not worse. Of course, the Nationals may be worried less about stats and more about Strasburg getting hurt.

The fact is we won’t ever know which is the right way to go. Strasburg is likely going to sit, and we won’t ever know what could have been.

Follow the writer on Twitter @NateKreichman.

Randy Johnson will go for career win No. 300 when the Giants take on the Nationals tonight at 7:05 p.m. ET. Johnson hasn’t won back-to-back starts all season and he’s coming off a win over the Braves on May 27.

Some believe the Big Unit is a shoe-in to win No. 300 tonight because he’s taking on a Washington team that’s just 14-36 on the year and lost six straight before beating San Fran 10-6 last night. But the Nats have scored the 12th most runs in baseball and are ninth in home runs, which Johnson has served plenty of this season (10 in 10 starts to be exact).

Johnson’s performance so far this season matches his stats line, which is to say he has been very average. He’s currently 4-4 with a 5.71 ERA and while he’s pitched well his last two outings, he also hasn’t reached the seventh inning in eight of his 10 starts. He simply runs out of gas when the game reaches the fifth and sixth inning, which means the Giants bullpen has often been the deciding factor in whether or not the Big Unit is victorious.

I don’t want to piss on his parade, but I don’t see Johnson winning tonight. Jordan Zimmerman is throwing for the Nats and the Giants don’t have a good enough offense to jump out to a big lead early and allow the Big Unit to cruise. As much as I would love to watch history tonight, I’ve got a gut feeling Johnson will be stuck at 299 by the end of the night.

Still, the Giants are always in tight ball games, so it would be cool to see Johnson throw six strong innings and then watch as the bullpen tries to preserve the victory for him. As much as SF closer Brian Wilson gets jacked for games, it would also be sweet to see him have to come in for a save in ninth with Johnson’s No. 300 hanging in the balance.

Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman is reporting that the Washington Nationals will select San Diego State University pitcher Stephen Strasburg with the #1 overall pick in next month’s MLB amateur draft.

The feeling in baseball was that the Nationals might be scared off by the set negotiation price of $50-million-plus from Strasburg’s adviser Scott Boras to secure the youngster’s signature on a contract. But that doesn’t seem to be the case anymore within the organization.

Acting Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo wouldn’t guarantee who he’s taking, but said regarding Strasburg when reached by phone, “It’s fair to say, going into it, he’s the No. 1 player on our board. We can say it. There’s not anybody who can jump ahead of us.” Rizzo added. “He’s an outstanding talent. He’s got all the tools to be a great player.”
Rizzo wouldn’t absolutely commit since the draft is a month away. But he did say, “As of now, he’s the top guy.”

The Nats remain one of the worst teams in baseball, and recently brought up young pitchers Shairon Martis and Jordan Zimmerman to gain major league experience in their starting rotation. Their hope for Strasburg is to join their rotation by July; scouts project him to be major-league ready coming out of college. Strasburg is 10-0 with 147 strikeouts and 15 walks for SDSU this season.

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Offseason Movement: Perhaps the Nats’ biggest addition was 1B/OF Adam Dunn, who will add some pop to the lineup, as well as a fair amount of strikeouts. Washington also acquired OF Josh Willingham and LHP Scott Olsen in a trade with the Marlins and signed free agents Daniel Cabrera, Alex Cintron and Javier Valentin. In the deal to land Willingham and Olsen, the Nationals agreed to send 2B Emilio Bonifaci, INF Jake Smolinski and RHP P.J. Dean to Florida.

Top Prospect: Jordan Zimmerman, RHP
Zimmermann is a serious Rookie of the Year candidate and is turning in a fantastic spring. As of this writing, he has allowed only six hits, two walks and has struck out 16 batters over 12 1/3 scoreless innings. He seems to be over shadowed on a national level, but that’s mostly because the Nationals have yet to officially hand him a spot in the starting rotation. But that should change soon and as long as he doesn’t let the bright lights of the Big Leagues eat him alive, the 22-year old could be a future star.

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