TrueHoop has a nice piece on Louisville forward Earl Clark, a versatile 6’10″ forward who some believe has the most upside of anyone in this draft even though he’s projected to go in the middle of the first round. His advocates say that he’s a top five talent but his detractors say that he’s a tweener and doesn’t have the drive or intensity to succeed in the NBA.

Clark embodies this basketball archetype. When he falls below the radar on the court — whether it was in that horrendous game against UConn or in a hostile road environment like Morgantown, West Virginia — it isn’t so much that he’s unassertive. It’s often a case of not knowing which of his many skills to assert on a specific play. A player like Clark can look like he’s taking plays off when, in reality, he’s paralyzed by choice.

When Clark gets twitchy on a halfcourt possession, he often holds the ball overhead along the perimeter. He looks over at the weak side, then down low, then back up at his point guard. There’s a moment you think he’ll put the ball on the deck and drive past his defender, and sometimes he’ll start his dribble move that way. Only Clark doesn’t display the tunnel vision of a fierce slasher. You can riffle through dozens of clips before you see Clark simply put his head down and drive for the hole. He hesitates, will look for a kickout or a cutter, maybe back it out, or just stop in his tracks. It’s the tentativeness of someone with too many options.

Watching Clark at moments like these evokes memories of Lamar Odom’s early days with the Los Angeles Clippers. Odom came to the pro game with a vast array of skills, almost none of which were wholly NBA-ready. He’d recognize a mismatch — for instance, a hulking big man guarding him on the ball along the perimeter. Odom’s initial instincts would be spot on, and he’d blow by the big man without much effort. But he’d ease up before he got to the hole, which would allow a lanky weak side defender to challenge the play and force him to his weaker right hand. Prior to arriving in the NBA, Odom never needed more than 80% speed to finish an elementary play like that.

The Odom comparison is a good one. It’s frustrating to watch the Laker forward because at times he’s the best player on the floor. Other times, he barely makes an impact. I watched several Louisville games this season and Clark seems to be a background player. He doesn’t make a big deal when he makes a great play, and his points are often of the “quiet” variety. But that doesn’t mean that he isn’t effective.

He averaged 14.2 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.4 blocks and 3.2 turnovers per game during his senior year. He shot 46% from the field, 65% from the line and 33% from long range; none of those numbers are particularly good for a 6’10″ perimeter-oriented forward, but keep in mind that he was arguably the best player on a Louisville team that won the Big East Championship.

Clark’s draft stock was consistently in the top 10 most of the season and started to take a dip when all of these point guards — Jonny Flynn, Stephen Curry, Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday — began to emerge before and after the combine. Now he’s projected to go in the middle of the round, while the occasional mock will have him cracking the top 10, usually to Toronto at #9 or to Milwaukee at #10.

TrueHoop tracked down Brandon Jennings’ former teammate, Ibrahim Jaaber, to provide a scouting report on Jennings and Ricky Rubio.

Ibrahim Jaaber is uniquely situated to comment on both. It is much discussed that Jennings did not play much for his Italian team, Lottomatica Roma. That’s in part because Jennings played behind Jaaber, a former two-time Ivy League player of the year who has played in Europe since graduating in 2007.

Jaaber agreed to provide a scouting report on his former teammate, Jennings, as well as Rubio, whom Jaaber faced on the court last December. I don’t know if it’s fair to expect Jaaber to be unbiased — Jennings is a former teammate, and he has no such relationship with Rubio — but he assures he is speaking from the heart when he writes:

I look at both as players who will need to be nurtured and given a lot of attention in order to thrive in the NBA. After one or two seasons in the League, given the same coaching, opportunities and development, in my opinion, I think Brandon Jennings will be the overall better player. Which is not to say that Ricky won’t be successful. I just think Brandon has greater potential — and as they are both in my eyes players who will have to make great developments, I would invest my pick in the better athlete, Brandon Jennings.

The piece is longer, and Jaaber makes a case for both players, but he’d take Jennings over Rubio.

Jennings was a top 5 pick all season, but has seen his stock drop recently as concerns over his lack of playing time in Italy crossed with the emergence of several other point guard prospects, namely Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday, Stephen Curry and Jonny Flynn. Everything I’m reading points to the fact that Jennings is a great athlete and has outstanding quickness, but doesn’t have the same feel for the game as some of the other prospects do. His jumper seems to be falling and he has had several good workouts in recent days. He could go as early as #7 (to the Warriors) or possibly as late as #14 (to the Suns), and given the fluidity of this draft, even that’s not a solid range.

The draft is just a few days away, so it’s a good time to take one final stab at mocking the first round of this draft. I’ll continue to update the consensus draft this week, but this will be my last attempt at predicting what will happen this Thursday.

First, let’s take a look at the most recent consensus. Chad Ford released the most recent version of his mock draft today, NBADraft.net also updated today, while DraftExpress updated their mock yesterday.

Now I’ll go, pick by pick, through the first round, taking the consensus into account while also throwing in my $0.02 here and there.

#1 CLIPPERS
The Clips have shown no signs of trading away their opportunity to draft Blake Griffin. There is much fluidity with the next few picks, but the Oklahoma product is pretty much guaranteed to be the first pick. The Clippers will then (reportedly) try to move Zach Randolph or Chris Kaman, though it might be wise to move forward with Kaman and Griffin in the front court, Baron Davis at the point, and Eric Gordon and Al Thornton on the wing. Randolph is going to be tough to move. (I still can’t believe that Mike Dunleavy traded for him last season.)
Pick: Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma

#2 GRIZZLIES
The consensus says that Hasheem Thabeet will be the pick and I don’t disagree, even though he just pulled out of a workout with Memphis due to a shoulder injury. DraftExpress thinks that Memphis will go with James Harden and move O.J. Mayo to the point, which they say is his natural position. I don’t know that they’ve given up on Mike Conley yet, so I think they will go big with this pick. Their biggest need is at power forward, so trading down and drafting Jordan Hill is a possibility. But if they stand pat, Thabeet could very well be the pick, even though he doesn’t seem to want to play in Memphis.
Pick: Hasheem Thabeet, C, UConn

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Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard has been actively working the phones, as usual.

The Blazers have been making inquiries all over the first round. Their main target has been Pittsburgh’s DeJuan Blair, a burly power forward who plays with a toughness the Blazers lack and coach Nate McMillan would appreciate.

However, Sunday night, there was talk Pritchard has even grander plans. With point guard Ricky Rubio possibly slipping out of the top four, the Blazers are talking to the Wizards about acquiring the No. 5 pick.

There’s no question Pritchard also is trying to figure out a way to get maximum cap room this summer to use for a free agent or in a trade. The Magic’s Hedo Turkoglu gets the most mention, but sources say Portland’s real target is Bulls point guard Kirk Hinrich.

Portland drafted Jerryd Bayless last year, but he didn’t have a very good rookie season, and head coach Nate McMillan would like Pritchard to steer clear of drafting another rookie. Hinrich would be a great fit. He’s relatively cheap (three years, $26.5 million remaining), experienced, and is a good defender.

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How would the 2008 NBA Draft go if owners and GMs knew then what they know now?

Here’s my take…

#1 Chicago: Derrick Rose
The Bulls don’t want a mulligan. They are perfectly happy with their franchise point guard.

#2 Miami: Brook Lopez
Michael Beasley isn’t a bust, no matter what anyone says. But if the Heat had it all to do over again, they’d go with Lopez here, who posted 13.0 points and 8.1 rebounds in about 31 minutes of playing time.

#3 Minnesota: O.J. Mayo
I don’t think the T-Wolves would do anything differently. They’d still draft Mayo and trade with Memphis for Love. Why not?

#4 Seattle/OKC: Russell Westbrook
Likewise, the Thunder have to be happy with what they have in Westbrook, who averaged 20.6 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.9 assists in February.

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Chad Ford writes about why Ricky Rubio is being so selective in his workouts.

First of all, the idea that Rubio is the only one doing it is silly. James Harden has only worked out for four teams. Even the Knicks couldn’t get him in. Hasheem Thabeet will likely only work out for three. DeMar DeRozan has been really selective, and so has Stephen Curry.

It’s pretty simple as to why Rubio is being selective: He is going to have to pay a lot of money for the privilege to play in the NBA next season. His buyout will cost him something between $5 and $7 million of his own money. That’s a lot of money, especially when you consider that Rubio wasn’t making a ton of dough in Spain. He essentially will be signing over his paychecks for the next couple of years to his team in Spain.

The Kings have an obvious hole at point guard on a young team. It seems to be the place his camp wants him to land. If the Kings draft him, I don’t think there’s any question that Rubio would pay the buyout and come. The question is, will the Kings draft him? I think the odds are in Rubio’s favor, but it sounds like some in the organization still need to be convinced.

Rubio’s future might depend on something he has no control over — is Russell Westbrook a point guard? A statistical study I did a few weeks ago revealed that he was turnover-prone and shoot-first, though obviously as a young rookie, there is room for improvement. If the Thunder think he’s a point guard, then I doubt they take Rubio. They’ll take James Harden, who averaged 4.2 assists during his senior year even though he was taking 13 shots per game.

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On his draft buzz blog [Insider subscription required], Chad Ford dispelled the notion that the Warriors made a promise to Monta Ellis not to draft a point guard at #7. He spoke with GM Larry Riley, who said that the topic never came up. In an interview with KNBR, Ellis confirmed that the meeting was about getting everyone on the same page and said that if the team drafted a point guard, he was going to “do anything to help the team win.” Riley told Ellis that if they do use him at the point, his primary responsibility will be to “get guys more involved” and help his teammates “get off.”

Riley told Ford that he would “like to have a little beef” and said that the Warriors could “use more size and toughness.” Does this mean that they’ll draft Jordan Hill at #7, if available? Probably, but Riley also said that the Warriors didn’t “have a gaping hole at any position” so that they can “draft the best player available.”

Ellis thrived at off guard playing alongside Baron Davis two seasons ago, averaging 20.2 points, 3.9 assists and 4.9 rebounds, and shot an astounding 53% from the field.

Earlier in the day, I wrote about how Chad Ford is hearing that Ty Lawson is shooting up some draft boards, and now John Hollinger’s Draft Rater (where he takes college statistics and a few other metrics to predict a player’s production in the NBA) says that he’s the top player in this draft. Yes, he’s even ahead of Blake Griffin.

Lawson, who is coming off an electric performance in leading North Carolina to the championship, grades out highly for several reasons: Although he’s short for a point guard, his shooting numbers (47.1 percent on 3-pointers), strong assist rate and microscopic turnover ratio (9.1, first among point guard prospects) all point to him as an NBA keeper.

The Draft Rater puts Lawson slightly ahead of Griffin for first, but this doesn’t mean a team should take Lawson first. The standard error in the projections for point guards is higher than it is for big men, which means random noise could be putting Lawson ahead just as easily as on-the-court performance. If the consensus is that Griffin is the better player, I don’t think Lawson’s statistical record alone is strong enough evidence to refute it. Additionally, we’ve heard questions about Lawson’s work ethic and injuries.

But the rating is emphatic enough for me to say Lawson should be at the top of the college point guard ladder, ahead of Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague & Co. (If you’re wondering about Ricky Rubio, I’ll have more on him next week.)

Hollinger’s Draft Rater isn’t error-proof but it’s not a bad second opinion when trying to pick a player out of a group of two or more.

Or when you’re trying to avoid a bust…

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Chris Bosh discussed Miami as a possible destination next summer.

“As of right now, I’m not sure. I like Miami, don’t get me wrong. But I don’t know what comes along with being a part of that organization. I don’t even have any friends in Miami, which was the funniest part. A close friend of mine hit me yesterday and was like ‘Hey there’s another article out’ and I was like ‘What now?’ ‘Apparently a friend in Miami said you’re going to Miami.’ He sent me the article and I read it, and I’m like, ‘now they’re just making stuff up.’”

For Heat fans, re-signing Dwyane Wade and signing Bosh would be a dream scenario next summer. The best thing Miami has going for it (other than South Beach, of course) is Wade, so if Bosh signs he better hope that Wade doesn’t pull an Elton Brand and bolt. Speaking of…

Dwyane Wade discussed his hometown of Chicago as a possible destination next summer.

“I’m not ruling out a lot of places, including Chicago, but I’m not really thinking about those places. Like I said, 2010 is the year when I will sit down and open up my options and, hopefully, I’m still blessed and healthy to have those options and then go from there. But Miami is my number one option and I’ve made that clear. That’s where I want to be and, hopefully, we can get everything right here in Miami.”

Wade is just keeping his options open. He has said repeatedly that he’d like to stay in Miami, but he’s keeping the organization’s feet to the fire by insinuating that he still might leave if the franchise is unable to surround him with good players. The Heat are projected to have significant cap space next summer, so they could conceivably sign Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire or even LeBron James.

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Chad Ford and Draft Express updated their mocks, so it’s a good time to take another look at the consensus. I also added Rotoworld’s most recent mock to the equation, and added a column (“consensus”) that makes a pick if two or more of the mocks agree on a player.

A few random thoughts…

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