The closer we get to Thursday’s NFL draft, the more muddled Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert’s stock appears to be.

According to NFL Network’s Mike Lombardi, Gabbert’s draft stock is “slipping” and the 49ers, who hold the seventh overall pick, are only “lukewarm” on the Missouri product. Lombardi even suggests that Gabbert “could easily slide out of the top 10.”

I don’t buy this. I can see the 49ers not being interested in Gabbert, but I don’t see him falling out of the top 10. Yes, the fact that he played in the spread at MIZZOU raises concerns. But Sam Bradford proved last year that just because a QB played in the spread in college, doesn’t mean he won’t be able to tie his shoes without falling over as soon as he reaches the pros.

Gabbert is a big, strong-armed passer with above-average athletic ability and a good football I.Q. Is he unpolished? Yes, much like all quarterback prospects are at this stage. Is he a sure thing? No, but no prospect is a sure thing heading into the draft.

Assuming Carolina passes on him with the first overall pick, the Bills, Bengals, Cardinals, 49ers, Titans and Redskins are all possibilities for Gabbert in the top 10. In fact, I really like him at No. 8 overall to Tennessee, which will obviously need a quarterback once it dumps Vince Young. I’m not as connected as Lombardi and I would need a calculator to add up how many times I’ve missed on observations when it comes to previous drafts (a fact readers are never shy to remind me about…a-holes). But I don’t see a well put-together quarterback prospect like Gabbert slipping out of the top 10.

According to a report by FOX Sports’ Jay Glazer and Alex Marvez, Georgia DE/LB Justin Houston tested positive for marijuana at February’s scouting combine. Iowa DL Christian Ballard also failed a drug test, which isn’t good considering he’s already facing question marks about his lack of production in relation to his immense talent.

In Houston’s case, the failed drug test could cost him the opportunity to be selected in the first round. He’s too good of a talent to fall out of the second round, but teams were already wary of his abilities to stand up and produce as an outside linebacker in a 3-4. For those observers who have watched tape on the former Bulldog, most of them say that he’s better with his hand in the dirt as a DE in a 4-3.

The other thing that was already hurting Houston’s draft stock was the fact that the defensive line position is deep in this year’s draft. When you couple the failed drug test with the questionable tape, it stands to reason that eight or nine defensive ends could be selected before Houston comes off the board. Granted, that may have happened anyway (even before FOX’s report came out), but the positive drug test certainly doesn’t help.

It never ceases to amaze me how NFL prospects are willing to potentially lose thousands (if not millions in some players’ cases) of dollars just so they can smoke a little ganja. Hopefully the crap Houston smoked was worth potentially falling into the second round and costing him guaranteed money on his first pro contract.

While appearing on FOX Sports Radio with the Charlotte Observer’s Darin Gantt, Panthers’ general manager Marty Hurney suggested that Carolina will take a quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick on Thursday.

“This is a quarterback league,” Hurney said. “Look at the order of the draft. The ones who have them are picking low, and the ones who don’t are pick high.”

Hurney went onto say that “this has nothing to do with Jimmy Clausen.” It’s noteworthy that Gantt is convinced that the Panthers will take Cam Newton with the top pick, although that conflicts with Tony Softli’s prediction over the weekend that Carolina will take Alabama DT Marcell Dareus. Softli is a former high-ranking executive with the Panthers, so take his Dareus prediction for what it’s worth.

Hurney could be setting up a smokescreen with his comments about quarterbacks, although the only benefit there would be if some team were interested in trading up for Newton. If no team is, then there’s really no reason for Hurney to be coy about the Panthers’ draft plans at this point. It’s not like someone is going to sneak up ahead of them seeing as how they hold the first overall pick.

My gut says Newton and when I release my final mock draft on Thursday, I don’t imagine that you’ll see anyone else’s name written into that top spot.

In his column about character assessments, Nolan Nawrocki of Pro Football Weekly writes that Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett confirmed to NFL teams during the scouting combine that he at least experimented with drugs during his college years.

Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett — One GM said Mallett was the first quarterback ever to admit his drug usage to him in interviews, and his willingness to be honest about his past and acknowledge issues is viewed as a positive. Concerns about his history of use could impact his draft position, though. Although Mallett did not produce an official positive test at Arkansas, he has been arrested for public intoxication and carries a reputation as a “big party guy,” per sources who have interviewed him. How much teams believe he has matured will weigh into his draft status. “I would not take him at any point,” one executive not in need of a quarterback said. He still figures to be drafted in the second round.

If I were an NFL draft evaluator I would be more concerned about his work habits than his drug use. Just because a player experimented with drugs in college doesn’t mean he’s going to be a loose cannon in the NFL. Granted, giving him millions of dollars and more free time usually only fuels young players’ appetites for partying but again, that doesn’t mean they’ll be a malcontent in the NFL. I would be more concerned if Mallett was lazy, failed to show up to meetings and practice on time, or if he generally couldn’t grasp a playbook.

That said, I don’t blame any team for wanting to stay away from him. You invest that much money in a player, he better eat, sleep and drink football until his career is finished or else why draft him? There’s a reason why a guy like Peyton Manning is viewed as the best: because he’s willing to work at the game he loves. If teams get the sense that Mallett is the second coming of Ryan Leaf, then why bother even having him on their draft board?

If Mallett does wind up falling into the second round, one team I’d keep an eye on is Oakland. The Raiders run a vertical offense with Hue Jackson at the helm and Al Davis doesn’t give a squat about whether or not a prospect has questionable character. Granted, quarterback isn’t necessarily a need for the Raiders but Davis has always been a guy who is attracted to big-time talent.

Despite a report a week ago that stated the Redskins were trying to move up in the first round, Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com writes that Washington is actually trying to trade down.

According to a league source, the Redskins are looking to trade down in the first round with the idea they will draft either Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder or TCU quarterback Andy Dalton.

The Redskins, who pick 10th overall, would like to get a second-round pick from a team in exchange for moving back to their spot in the first round. They could then use their two second-round picks to bolster the defense.

For a team that doesn’t have a third-round pick, this scenario makes a lot more sense than trying to trade up.

The X-factor here would be if Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert were to fall to them at the 10th spot. The Redskins would likely take him there, rather than trading back.

I share in Prisco’s thoughts exactly. Teams can’t trade 2012 draft picks without a CBA in place, so it would be difficult for a team like the Redskins to move up in the first round without having enough 2011 selections to make a deal. Besides, why would the Redskins want to sacrifice maybe first, second and fourth round selections to move up a couple of spots when they don’t have a third rounder? I get that if a team is in love with a player, you move up and get him. But the Redskins may wind up sacrificing their entire draft for one player if they traded up, which might not be worth it in the end.

It sounds like if Gabbert is there at N0. 10, the Skins will take him. If he doesn’t fall, then they could wait to see if Ponder or Dalton is there in the second or third. (Assuming of course that they trade down and acquire a third round pick.)