Tag: Jimmy Rollins (Page 4 of 5)

      When in doubt, go for the healthy young guy

      March 6, 2009 /

      All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

      If you’re a fantasy baseball or football owner and you don’t read Rotoworld every day (or, in my case, several times a day), you’re not only missing out, but you may very well be costing yourself a chance at a league title. As far as free and comprehensive fantasy advice goes, nobody does it better than Rotoworld. Their player updates pull from all sorts of local and national sources and are updated throughout the day, and their columnists offer up plenty of great insight, both during the season and leading up to draft day. They even have their own draft guide, although you’ve got to pay $15 for that.

      Howard Megdal (who, as far as I can tell, is new to the Rotoworld staff this season) just posted a great article about the value of youth and health on draft day:

      So when I draft, I want as much predictability as possible. Therefore, my two touchstones are getting as many players in their age peak (roughly 25-30), with an added focus on injury history. Such a strategy provides no guarantees—no strategy does—but puts me in the best position to consolidate my gains. And as a bonus—a healthy player of peak age, more likely than not, is going to be a player who has that surprise season you were hoping for from the rookie, anyway.

      I’m always amazed by how many owners don’t pay attention to age or injury history during their drafts, especially in the early rounds. Every year, someone drafts a guy like AJ Burnett too early, and every year Burnett goes down with some kind of injury. Go ahead and take Lance Berkman in the second round — I’ll gladly wait another round or two and snag the younger Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder. Upside, upside, upside.

      Megdal goes on to target some of the likely first-rounders that he’s avoiding this year:

      Ian Kinsler is another top-12 player with red flags of the white bandage variety. For the third straight season, he showed that when healthy, he is an offensive force at a position, second base, with very few of them. But he played in just 121 games, this time due to a sports hernia, and his season-high through three seasons is 130. No reason he can’t help a fantasy team—but let someone else draft his injury history first.

      Also consider dropping Jimmy Rollins, who played in 137 games last season and already has back issues in spring training, and Carl Crawford, who was limited to 109 games with a finger injury last year. Crawford in particular appears to be healthy this spring—but grab the guy who just put up 150-160 games in 2008. An extra 10-15 games out of your best player could be the difference in some leagues.

      Instead of Kinsler, who averaged fewer than 124 games per season from 2006-2008, how about Brandon Phillips, who has averaged around 150 games per season? Phillips is 27, suggesting that his best year may come in 2009.

      I’m pretty high on both Kinsler and Phillips, as I noted in my second base preview, but while Kinsler is younger (by one year) and may arguably have a little more upside, Phillips has the much healthier track record and can be snagged a little later than Kinsler, which likely makes him the better value of the two. When you consider the premium you’ll need to pay for Kinsler (a late first or early second rounder), Phillips becomes that much more intriguing.

      Megdal wisely suggests not becoming a slave to this (or any) draft strategy, because remaining too loyal to a plan could close you out of any mid- to late-round bargains that may fall into your lap. But when it comes to debating the merits of Carlos Delgado vs. Adrian Gonzalez, AJ Burnett vs. Edinson Volquez, or Carlos Lee vs. Nick Markakis, you’d be wise to go with the younger, healthier guy.

      Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Football, General Sports, MLB

      2009 Fantasy Baseball Preview: Shortstops

      March 4, 2009 /

      All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings

      Before your 2009 fantasy baseball draft kicks off this year, do yourself a favor and repeat this three or four times to yourself: I will draft a shortstop in the first nine rounds.

      Not unlike third basemen, the shortstop position is weak this season. After Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins come off the board in the first two rounds, you’re left with roughly eight shortstops that will give you adequate to good production this season. We project those eight shortstops to be selected anywhere between the fifth and ninth round in standard mixed leagues, which is why we suggest nabbing one before the conclusion of the ninth.

      The good news is that in a 12-team league, you’ll definitely have the opportunity to land one of the big three (Ramirez, Reyes, Rollins) or scoop up one of the eight adequate-to-good shortstops that we’re referring to. The bad news is that shortstops can start flying off the board quickly and if you’re selecting in a snake draft, you could wind up on the wrong end of the spectrum when the run starts.

      That’s why to be safe, you will draft a shortstop in one of the first nine rounds because you don’t want to be the guy that’s trying to figure out whether or not Edgar Renteria will bounce back now that he’s in the NL again, or having to choose between Orlando Cabrera’s consistent .280 batting average and Khalili Greene’s 25-plus home run potential. (Side note: If you do wind up being that guy come draft day, it might be wise to select two shortstops back to back and hope you catch lightning in a bottle with one of them.)

      Obviously you still want to be smart on draft day; we’re not advising you to take Derek Jeter in the third because you’re spooked about failing to grab a shortstop before the ninth round. But taking one of the top 11 shortstops a round early might not be a bad idea considering what you’ll be left with later on.

      After Ramirez, Reyes and Rollins come off the board, here are the eight shortstops we’d suggest taking before the ninth round ends:

      Stephen DrewStephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks
      In his third season with the D-Backs last year, Drew was only the third shortstop in major league history to finish with 40 doubles, 20 home runs and 10 triples in 2008. At 26 years old, his ceiling is sky high right now as he enters the prime of his career and there is no doubt that he’s one of the bright young stars in baseball. If he builds off the success he had last year, Drew could easily hit 25 home runs, knock in 75 RBI, score 100 runs and chip in five stolen bases. He probably won’t sniff the .300-mark in terms of batting average, but he should be right around .290.

      Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
      Tulowitzki exploded onto the scene in 2007, helping the Rockies make a World Series appearance and setting a record for most home runs (20) in a season by an NL rookie shortstop. But injuries destroyed what was supposed to be a promising second season in 2008 and he obviously fell short of expectations. Still, he hit .300 over the second half of the season last year and he should once again build on his promising young career. He has the potential to hit 20-plus home runs, knock in 80 RBI, score 90 runs and add 10 stolen bases along with his .290 average. Tulowitzki is a star in the making and definitely one of the better young shortstops in the game.

      Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox
      Potential could be the one word to describe the Sox’s young shortstop. Ramirez has 20-home run and 20-stolen base potential and he could easily average .290 and score 100 runs. The one thing to keep in mind about him, however, is that last year was his breakout campaign and he could regress in ’09. Still, with Orlando Cabrera moving on in free agency, Ramirez will get every opportunity to build on his rookie performance and should have plenty of fantasy potential hitting in front of Carlos Quentin in the two-hole.

      Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians
      With most of the Tribe hitters taking a step back in ’08, Peralta came through with a fine season. If Travis Hafner is healthy again this year, Peralta will move back to the third or fifth spot in the order (he was hitting cleanup in Hafner’s absence last season) and should hit 25-plus home runs. He does strike out a lot and his average will probably teeter around .275, but he’ll also give you 80-plus RBI and score 100-plus runs. There’s talk of him moving to third base this year so keep an eye on that, but he’ll still qualify as a shortstop in all leagues.

      Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
      Tried and true – Jeter is more than capable of giving you quality production day in and day out. At 35 years old, his numbers are definitely on the decline but that doesn’t mean the veteran will crash and burn in 2009. He might not hit 20 home runs or steal 20 bases this year, but you can probably bank on 15 dingers and 15 swiped bags. Just don’t overvalue him, because there’s no doubt someone will based on name recognition alone.

      Rafael FurcalRafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers
      Obviously he’s a major injury risk, but if he’s healthy there’s no reason to believe Furcal can’t pick up where he left off in April of last year when he hit .367. He also returns to familiar stomping grounds after re-signing with the Dodgers, and he should have every opportunity to top 15 home runs and swipe 35-plus bases. Some owners will look at his name and take a pass given his age and injury concerns, but Furcal could be worth the risk come draft day, especially depending on how far he falls.

      J.J. Hardy, Milwaukee Brewers
      If you can put up with Hardy’s streaky production, he’s liable to blast 25 home runs, drive in 75 RBI and bat around .280. Depending on how your first five or six rounds turn out, the addition of Hardy could give you a boost in the power department without killing your team’s overall batting average. Not a lot of owners will jump at the opportunity to select him, but Hardy is an underrated player and after hitting 20-plus home runs the last two seasons, he looks like a reliable option.

      Michael Young, Texas Rangers
      Some owners might choose to go with a young sleeper like KC’s Mike Aviles over an aging vet like Young, but keep in mind how good the Rangers’ offense was last year. Young has the potential to hit .300 with12 dingers, knocking in 82 RBI and scoring 102 runs at the top of Texas’s lineup. Aviles might hit .300 again with 10-plus home runs, but it’s doubtful he brings what Young does to the table in terms of RBI and run production.

      Here is our official ranking of shortstops. Remember that all of these players qualify for your middle infield position, so don’t fall asleep and miss out on taking a potential sleeper or consistent veteran shortstop in later rounds.

      1. Hanley Ramirez, FLA
      2. Jose Reyes, NYM
      3. Jimmy Rollins, PHI
      4. Stephen Drew, ARI
      5. Troy Tulowitzki, COL
      6. Alexei Ramirez, CHW
      7. Jhonny Peralta, CLE
      8. Derek Jeter, NYY
      9. Rafael Furcal, LAD
      10. J.J. Hardy, MIL
      11. Michael Young, TEX
      12. Mike Aviles, KC
      13. Miguel Tejada, HOU
      14. Yunel Escobar, ATL
      15. Orlando Cabrera, OAK
      16. Elvis Andrus, TEX
      17. Edgar Renteria, SF
      18. Jason Bartlett, TB
      19. Ryan Theriot, CHC
      20. Khalil Greene, STL
      21. Jed Lowrie, BOS

      Fantasy Baseball, MLB

      Baseball tainted by Game 5 of Series

      October 28, 2008 /

      Phil Sheridan of the Philadelphia Inquirer blasts Major League Baseball for what transpired due to the driving rain that the Phillies and Rays had to play in before Game 5 of the World Series was finally called.

      2008 World SeriesSimply put, Game 5 is hopelessly tainted by what transpired between the time the game should have been called and the middle of the sixth inning, when it was finally suspended.

      Whatever happens when play resumes, whether the Phillies celebrate their first World Series championship or the Rays force a Game 6 in Florida, MLB can’t justify its decision or its decision-making process.

      The first problem here is TV’s insistence on scheduling these games for 8:30 p.m. or even later. There are plenty of lovely autumn afternoons – and yesterday was one of them – that give way to cold and blustery evenings. When baseball, like other sports, sold its soul to the networks and their craven need for prime-time sports programming, it created a situation where young fans couldn’t stay up to watch the most important games of the year.

      Rollins, rain pouring into his face, dropped that pop-up in the top of the fifth. The play was rather nastily ruled an error, as if it had occurred in acceptable conditions. Hamels got out of that inning without allowing a run. The Phillies led, 2-1, in the middle of the fifth.

      At that moment, a regular-season game would become official. A rainout would mean the game was over, with the Phillies winning.

      “This is not a way to end a World Series,” Selig said. “I would not allow a World Series to end this way.”

      Selig is right on that point. The problem is, it appears MLB allowed play to continue in unplayable conditions because the Phillies had a lead. It seems like more than a coincidence that play was suspended after the top of the sixth, when the Rays tied the game on a base hit by Carlos Pena.

      I agree with everything Sheridan said. I thought Selig would have made the right call not to allow the World Series to end that way, but if that was the decision anyway, why allow the game to continue? As Sheridan suggests, it’s almost like Selig was hoping the Rays tied the game so that he wouldn’t be under the microscope for having to change a rule. It’s just a mess.

      MLB

      Couch Potato Alert: 10/10

      October 10, 2008 /

      Oklahoma vs. Texas
      This year’s Red River Rivalry battle at the Cotton Bowl has more marquee value than in past years; as for the first time since 2004 both teams will enter the game ranked in the top five. Heading into this season, the Longhorns offense was thought to be their biggest strength. But it has been the Texas defense that has provided most of the swagger. The Longhorns are ranked fourth nationally in total defense and that is a big jump since the 2007 unit set a school record for most yards allowed in a season. They will get stiff competition come Saturday against top-ranked Oklahoma. The Sooners are in the top five nationally in all offensive scoring categories, led by the nation’s second-rated passer Sam Bradford. National coverage begins Saturday at 12 PM ET on ABC. Click here for the official Oklahoma-Texas smack thread.

      LSU vs. Florida
      “The Showdown at the Swamp” marks the first time the last two national champions have faced each other since Notre Dame defeated Miami, 29-20, in 1990. The stakes are high for both schools; Florida must win to maintain any realistic hope of staying in the hunt for a berth in the BCS championship game, while LSU needs the win to stay on course to repeat as National Champions. And the matchup got even more intense after Tigers defensive lineman Ricky Jean-Francois promised that the LSU defense will try to knock Gator quarterback Tim Tebow out of the game. Later in the week, Jean-Francois said his comments were misinterpreted by the press. National coverage begins Saturday at 8 PM ET on CBS.

      Major League Baseball LCS Series
      The animosity between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox is not ready to approach the level of the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry, but their contempt for each other is a good undercard. Back on June 5th, the Rays’ Game One starter, James Shields, hit Red Sox outfielder Coco Crisp with a pitch that triggered a bench-clearing brawl between the two teams. Has this issue been resolved? Stay tuned for the answer. Meanwhile, the National League Championship series boils down to how well the Los Angeles Dodgers left-handed pitchers throw to the Philadelphia Phillies lethal left-handed hitting. The Phillies led the NL with 214 homeruns, with Ryan Howard leading the way with 48 followed by Chase Utley with 33, and both players bat left-handed. The top of the Phillies’ lineup also includes switch-hitting Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino, who both have outstanding on-base percentages. NLCS Game Two is Friday at 4:30 PM ET and Game Three is on Sunday at 8 PM ET; all NLCS games are on Fox. ALCS Game One is on Friday at 8:30 PM ET and Game Two is on Saturday at 8 PM ET. All ALCS games can be seen on TBS.

      New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers
      Their franchise quarterback is out for the season, and somehow the Patriots have still put together a successful start to their 2008 season. On the other side of the field, the Chargers have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL. To avoid falling further back in the AFC standings, the Chargers must try to defeat a Patriots team that has eliminated them from the past two post-seasons. Inconsistent play on both sides of the ball has plagued the Chargers all season; they have lost three games by a total of 10 points. Coverage begins at 8:15 PM ET on NBC

      Bullz-Eye Sports Channel, College Football, Couch Potato Alert, General Sports, MLB, NFL, Television

      It’s all about the pitching

      October 9, 2008 /

      “Momentum is always as strong as your starting pitcher is the next day.”
      – Joe Maddon

      Leave it to the well-read Rays manger to come up with such a profound statement. Chances are this saying is nailed up in his teams’ clubhouse alongside others from the likes of Albert Camus and Jean-Paul Sartre. Maddon’s right, and he’s used this pitching-first philosophy to propel his team into the ALCS.

      If there’s one quality that ties each of the remaining four teams together, it’s that each of them can hit. They each have at least two big bats, lead-off men that can hit for average, and a bottom of the order that can consistently do some damage. When teams are this evenly matched at the plate, it’s often a single blunder on the part of a pitcher that can decide a game. As we’ve seen in the Division Series between the Angels and Red Sox, it comes down to the pitching. Both teams boasted fabulous rotations and excellent hitting, but it was the Red Sox middle relief and closer that really won the games.

      The same will go for both matchups in the Championship Series. The Phillies, Dodgers, Rays, and Red Sox all have three starters who can win games at home and on the road. However, these series are best out of seven games, which creates a dilemma for each of these ball clubs as there isn’t a strong fourth starter to be found. Subsequently, these teams might start their aces after three days rest, or even force them to pitch for a third time if the series extend to seven games. This will be a test of player’s stamina and sound decision-making on management’s part. While managers struggle with whether to start a tired arm or an unpredictable one, a bullpen becomes even more valuable. They can come to the rescue (Matsuzaka in the ALDS), consistently put the lid on a victory (Papelbon and Lidge all year), or sometimes pitch the majority of the game after a starter bombs (Wade, Park, Kuo, and Saito of the Dodgers).

      These games are going to be decided in the late innings, and this factor alone will make watching them gratifying. Here’s the breakdown:

      Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

      At their healthiest, the Dodgers have a better pitching staff than the Phillies. If set-up man Hong-Chi Kuo and closer Takashi Saito hadn’t injured themselves at the end of the season, this series would undoubtedly favor the Dodgers. As a result, they need their starters to go as long as possible. If Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda can each go seven innings in all of their starts, I think the Dodgers can rely on their bullpen to pull through. Chan Ho Park and Cory Wade are both capable of maintaining a lead. The problem lies in the intimidating left-handed Phillies hitting. The Dodgers only have three southpaws on their roster: starter Clayton Kershaw, reliever Joe Beimel, and the aforementioned Kuo. Word is that the left-handed Kuo has been comfortable in recent simulated sessions. The Dodgers have said that Kuo might pitch an inning per game. A successful eighth inning with Kuo in relief opens the door with recent go-to closer Jonathan Broxton. Of course, this is idealistic. Yet, the fact remains that the Phillies cannot match this formula. It’s true that Brad Lidge outshines any of the Dodgers relief, but he’s only as good as the lead he’s protecting. The Dodgers dominated the opposition’s starting pitching better than any other team in the Division Series. They pounded Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, and Rich Harden of the Cubs, a rotation far more intimidating than the Phillies’. During the regular season, the clubs were evenly matched, with each sweeping the other at home and splitting their decisions. What’s important now is how late into the game their starters can pitch before handing it off to their relief.

      The Dodgers have a couple advantages over the Phillies. The first lies in Derek Lowe. He’s thrown “Cy Young” quality pitching for the past two months and has more playoff experience than the Phillies starters combined. The Dodgers can pressure Lowe into pitching Games 1, 4, and if need be, 7. With a two or three run cushion, Lowe can hold steady into the eighth inning, even on three days rest. Given the Dodgers recent activity at the plate, they should be able to support their ace. If Lowe isn’t given the reins in Game 4, the Dodgers could either go with Clayton Kershaw or Greg Maddux. Both can outduel Joe Blanton of the Phillies. Kershaw, the likely choice, has pitched capably against Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard who have struggled against left-handed pitching.

      Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays

      The two best teams in the American League advanced. This statement is obvious as both the Red Sox and the Rays made due with critical injuries that severely altered their team’s chemistry. Josh Beckett’s recent injury was visibly apparent in Game 3 against the Angels, as he gave up three runs on eight hits in five innings. Still, Jon Lester, the strongest pitcher in the postseason, led the Red Sox to a Game 4 clincher. The Rays will likely be without veteran closer Troy Percival, who had a magnificent first half. With Percival gone, they’ve moved Dan Wheeler into his spot. Wheeler blew five out of 18 chances during the regular season. Even without a strong closer, the Rays offense produced a large enough lead for their starters to secure wins against the White Sox.

      Tampa Bay enters this series with the third best team ERA in baseball. Though they finished 10-8 against the Red Sox, both teams were swept twice at home. James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Andy Sonnanstine, and Matt Garza are a very good rotation, and they’ve proven they can hold a lead when given it. Nevertheless, Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Tim Wakefield stack up better pound for pound—when they’re injury-free. And they’re not. The Rays need to win all their games against an ailing Josh Beckett and a struggling Tim Wakefield. Also, it’s essential to build a lead substantial enough to render Papelbon useless. If Shields, Kazmir, or Garza can outpitch either Lester or Matsuzaka in at least one decision, the Rays have a very good chance.

      For Boston, Papelbon is just as key now as he’s ever been. Of the teams that remain, no other closer is as valuable. While the Rays have a fairly talented set-up in Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell, and David Price, Dan Wheeler doesn’t bring the sense of security that comes with Papelbon. If he’s on the mound, the Red Sox are going to win—there’s just no way around it. To advance to the World Series, the Rays need to get to Lester or Matsuzaka in one of their starts. It’s difficult, but not impossible.

      Any way you slice it, this year’s World Series is going to be entertaining. Each of these teams carry their own unique story. Whether it’s Manny and Torre in L.A., Charlie and the Phillies, the Red Sox domination, or the endearing Rays, whoever wins will be a deserving champion.

      MLB

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