Will the Browns trade their first round pick?

Steve Doerschuk of the Canton Repository speculates that the Browns could wind up trading their first round pick (No. 7 overall) based on Mike Holmgren’s draft history.

Is it a stretch to anticipate an 80-percent chance that Holmgren will pull off a trade involving the Browns’ first-round pick?

Not necessarily. In Holmgren’s 10 years as head coach in Seattle, the Seahawks made eight trades involving Round 1 selections.

Is that information deceiving in that Holmgren doubled as GM and head coach in only five of those years?

Quite the contrary.

In Holmgren’s first four seasons as GM, 1999-2002, he made five trades involving Round 1 picks — all involving first-round choices that hadn’t yet been made.

Within his first three months with the Browns, Holmgren has traded out two past first-round picks, quarterback Brady Quinn and linebacker Kamerion Wimbley.

It’s incredibly hard to trade out of the top 5, but it does get easier for teams that want to trade out of the top 6-10 picks. If the Browns want to trade down, quarterback Jimmy Clausen might be the key to them doing so. If a team wants to jump ahead of the Raiders, Bills and Jaguars in order to nab Clausen, the Browns are sitting in the perfect spot at No. 7. The only catch is that the Raiders (No. 8), Bills (No. 9) and Jaguars (No. 10) are the three teams that are most likely to pull the trigger on Clausen in the first round.

In my latest mock draft, I have the Browns selecting Tennessee safety Eric Berry at No. 7, although Florida cornerback Joe Haden and offensive tackles Anthony Davis (Rutgers) and Bryan Bulaga (Iowa) are possibilities as well. (Assuming Russell Okung and Trent Williams, the top offensive linemen in the draft, are off the board.) If Holmgren chooses to stay put at No. 7, it’s very likely that he’ll land a prospect that can contribute right away.


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2010 NFL Mock Draft Version 2.0

With the Redskins’ acquisition of Donovan McNabb, it’s a perfect time to update my mock draft. In my first mock, I had the Redskins taking Jimmy Clausen at No. 4, but with their need at quarterback being filled with the trade for McNabb, the dynamics in the top 10 have changed.

Here’s my second crack at predicting the first round of the 2010 NFL Draft.

(Side note: If I have the team selecting the same player as I did in my first mock, then my explanation of the pick will be the same in most occasions.)

1. St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
I have Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh rated as the unquestioned best player in this year’s draft. (Well, I don’t have an official ranking per se, but in my head he’s No. 1.) But that doesn’t mean I think the Rams will take him. Teams usually get quirky about the No. 1 overall pick. They feel as though they have to match the contract with the position in order to justify the player they’re taking, which is completely backwards when you think about it. A team should mostly be concerned with taking the right player that matches their scheme. But I digress. Bradford is the top rated quarterback and the Rams have a major need at the position now that the ultra-brutal Marc Bulger has been released. The Rams feel as though they need to breathe some excitement into their dull franchise and taking Bradford should do the trick. Is he the right player? That’s debatable.

2. Detroit Lions: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
Their trade for DT Corey Williams kind of throws me off a little, but I still think that if Suh is available the Lions won’t pass on him. Jim Schwartz built one hell of a defense in Tennessee centered around Albert Haynesworth and he could view Suh the same way. He’s a difference-maker up front and regardless of whether or not he and Williams play the same position, if Suh is as good as I think he is then Schwartz will find a way to utilize him. Offensive tackle Russell Okung has been mentioned at this pick but again, if Suh is available I can’t see the Lions leaving him on the board.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
If the Rams wind up taking Bradford with the top pick, you might be able to hear the sounds of screams and jubilation coming from Tampa. That’s because the Bucs would love to land one of the two stud defensive tackles in this draft and if Bradford goes No. 1, then either Suh or McCoy would slip to Tampa here. Some people are down on McCoy after he only benched 225 pounds 23 times at the combine, but that’s not a justifiable reason for his stock to slip. A lot of defensive tackles are forced to shed weight for the combine and when they do, they lose strength in the process. Besides, not taking a player because of how he performed on the bench at the combine is ridiculous notion anyway. McCoy would be a great fit for the Bucs.

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Will the Bills take Clausen at No. 9?

As I’ve discussed throughout the past couple of days, the Donovan McNabb trade is likely to cause a ripple effect in this month’s draft. While head coach Mike Shanahan said recently that the Redskins could still take a quarterback with the fourth overall pick, it’s hard to imagine that they’d select a signal caller that high when they have so many other pressing needs.

The Bills, however, are another story. They’ve seemingly given up on Trent Edwards and while Ryan Fitzpatrick is a fine backup, he’s not the solution either. That makes them an interesting possibility for Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen if he falls to them at No. 9.

But will he fall? Assuming the Rams take Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford at No. 1, the Seahawks, Browns and Raiders – three teams that could be interested in quarterback – all pick before the Bills. Seattle traded for Charlie Whitehurst a couple of weeks ago and the Browns added Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace early this offseason, so both of those teams could be out of the running. (In fact, the Seahawks most definitely are – Whitehurst is their future.) But Oakland was presumably in the mix for McNabb, so they could snag the Notre Dame product at No. 8, one spot ahead of Buffalo.

Of course, even if Clausen is available, the Bills still may take a pass. They have a glaring need for a left tackle and if they pass on someone like Anthony Davis or Bryan Bulaga at No. 9, they run the risk that a starting-caliber LT won’t be available when they pick again at No. 41. That said, if they believe that Clausen is a franchise quarterback, then they can’t pass on him. Having a good left tackle is vital, but quarterback trumps all other positions.

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2010 NFL Mock Draft Version 1.0

The full mock is finally completed!

I waited a lot longer than I normally do to compile my first mock draft of the year. Normally I whip up my first batch of mock draft right after the scouting combine, but this year I wanted to see what happened at the start of free agency before I even remotely considered whom teams would select in April.

I get as excited as any true draftnik about mock drafts, but how could anyone venture a guess at what player a team will select without knowing what big free agents signed where? It’s like taking a long road trip to a place you’ve never been before without your GPS. (Wow, have the times changed. A couple of years ago, I would have ended that sentence with “without your map” but that damn technology continues to track us down like a bear preying on an injured deer.)

Below is my first crack at predicting the first round of the 2010 NFL Draft. As usual, feel free to argue my picks as much as you like but please, debate with some dignity. Don’t be the doucher that ruins the fun of mock drafts by spewing venom in the comments section of a sports blog. There may not be anything more pathetic.

1. St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
I have Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh rated as the unquestioned best player in this year’s draft. (Well, I don’t have an official ranking per se, but in my head he’s No. 1.) But that doesn’t mean I think the Rams will take him. Teams usually get funny about the No. 1 overall pick. They feel as though they have to match the contract with the position in order to justify the player they’re taking, which is completely backwards when you think about it. A team should be most concerned with taking the right player that matches their scheme. But I digress. Bradford is the top rated quarterback and the Rams have a major need at the position with Marc Bulger proving over the past two years that he’s better suited to run the scout team offense in practice and then the first unit on Sundays. The Rams feel as though they need to breathe some excitement into their dull franchise and taking Bradford should do the trick. Is he the right player? That’s debatable.

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