Is the soap opera finally over? It looks like the Los Angeles Lakers are finally getting Dwight Howard as part of a 4-team deal:
The Lakers will send All-Star center Andrew Bynum to the Philadelphia 76ers, who also will receive shooting guard Jason Richardson from the Orlando Magic. The Sixers will send guard Andre Iguodala to the Denver Nuggets. The Magic will receive Arron Afflalo, Al Harrington, Nikola Vucevic, rookie swingman Moe Harkless and three first-round draft picks.
Earlier reports that Pau Gasol would be part of the deal didn’t materialize.
There has been so much focus on the big names in free agency that sometimes the complementary players are overlooked. Here’s a rundown of some of the mid-level names that have changed teams this summer:
Raymond Felton signs with the Knicks. (2/$15 M) When life gives you lemons… Donnie Walsh managed to sign Amare Stoudemire, but struck out on LeBron, Wade and Bosh. So instead of overpaying for another big-name free agent, or even re-signing David Lee, Walsh signed a capable point guard in Felton to run Mike D’Antoni’s up-tempo system. Most importantly, he negotiated a short, two-year contract (with a possible third season as a team option) to allow the pursuit of Chris Paul if/when he becomes a free agent in two years. Felton averaged 12-4-6 and shot 46% from the field for the Bobcats last season. His numbers are sure to rise in New York assuming he gets the same run (33 mpg).
Jermaine O’Neal signs with the Celtics. (2/$12 M) Rasheed Wallace is retiring, so the C’s needed to shore up its front line in order to contend with Dwight Howard, Carlos Boozer and Chris Bosh in the playoffs. O’Neal isn’t the player he used to be, but he averaged 14-7 and shot a career high (53%) for the Heat last season. He’s a big body and decent defender and he’s capable of hitting a face up jumper when given the opportunity. As long as he holds up, this is a nice signing by Boston.
Kyle Korver signs with the Bulls. (3/$15 M) Chicago lacked three-point shooting last season and Korver fills that need. He hit almost 54% from deep last season and is a career 41% shooter. He should be a nice fit as a spot up shooter with Derrick Rose and Carlos Boozer, but needs to shoot 40%+ from 3PT to justify a starting spot. He’s better defensively as a small forward than as a shooting guard, so it’s not clear how he and Luol Deng will play together. I expected Korver to get a full mid-level deal in this market so the Bulls got him for a relatively good price.
Tiago Splitter signs with the Spurs. (3/$11 M) This deal happened rather quietly, but San Antonio finally has its 2007 first round draft pick under contract… at a bargain. Splitter is a 25-year-old, 6-11 center who was named the MVP of the Spanish League last season. He averaged 16-7 and shot 58% from the field in 28 minutes a game. While he’s not a great rebounder, he’s good defensively and can take some of the scoring load off of Tim Duncan. At under $4 million a season, he’s a steal.
Al Harrington signs with the Nuggets. (5/$34 M) Harrington’s 18-6 line from last season needs to be taken with a grain of salt since he was playing for a pretty bad Knicks team that played at a very high pace. The Nuggets outbid the Mavs for Harrington’s services and Denver had to overpay to lock him up. The Nuggets will be without Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen to start the season and Nene is always a threat to miss time with injury, so Harrington gives the team a big body who can score when called upon. He’s 30, so this contract is not going to look very good in 2-3 years, but such is the market for big men.
What is a “thin line,” you ask? Well, I’m not 100% sure I coined it, but it’s my term for a player who scores, but brings almost nothing else — rebounds, assists, steals or blocks — to the table.
In order to determine who has the thinnest line in the NBA, I divided the player’s points by the sum of their rebounds, assists, steals and blocks to come up with the Thin Line Ratio (TLR). The bigger the number, the thinner the line.
To be eligible, a player has to average at least 20 minutes per game. And to be fair to the biggest scorers in the league, if their rebounds, assists, steals and blocks add up to 10+ per game, then they’re not eligible. So players like Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, Danny Granger and Kobe Bryant are in the clear. I figure any player who is posting 10+ in those four categories is bringing plenty to the table.
So here’s a look at the 10 thinnest lines in the NBA:
1. Kevin Martin (TLR: 2.89) 2. Jamal Crawford (2.79) 3. Marcus Thornton (2.69) 4. Ben Gordon (2.51) 5. Eric Gordon (2.43) 6. Ray Allen (2.43) 7. Jason Terry (2.36) 8. Richard Hamilton (2.33) 9. Corey Maggette (2.31) 10. J.J. Redick (2.28)
Surprise, surprise…that’s a list of nine or ten shooting guards, depending on how you classify Corey Maggette (and maybe Jamal Crawford). These are players whose job it is to shoot the ball and they obviously embrace that role. You won’t see these players battling for rebounds or doing a lot of penetrate and dish.
The top point guard in TLR? Aaron Brooks (2.19), winner of this year’s Most Improved Player award.
The top small forward (other than Maggette)? Josh Howard (2.12)
The top power forward? Bill Walker (2.14), but he played in just 35 games. Al Harrington (2.12) was the next highest PF on the list.
The top center? Andrea Bargnani (1.91), but is he really a center? The next highest eligible center is Channing Frye (1.33).
Who has the thickest line (i.e. the lowest TLR)?
PG – Jason Kidd (0.61) SG – Thabo Sefolosha (0.72) SF – Luc Mbah a Moute (0.78) PF – Jared Jeffries (0.71) C – Marcus Camby (0.43)
Jason Kidd plus four defensive specialists. Boy, that would be some ugly offense, but they’d be a bitch to score on.
With the trade deadline in the rear view mirror and players tied to their current teams at least until the summer, it’s a good time to take a look ahead at the free agent class of 2009. Given the state of the economy and how so many teams are saving up for the class of 2010, some are suggesting that this summer’s free agency could be a “nuclear winter” of sorts, no pun intended. The salary cap and luxury tax thresholds are likely to decline for the first time in years and that has GMs and owners around the league scrambling to cut salary where they can.
There are three types of free agents: players with early termination options (ETO) or player options (PO), restricted free agents and unrestricted free agents.
Players with ETOs or POs
This group includes Kobe Bryant, Jermaine O’Neal, Al Harrington, Jamal Crawford and Mehmet Okur, but it’s highly unlikely that any of these guys will hit the open market given the kind of money they’ll be making by extending their respective contracts. Of this group, Hedo Turkoglu, Anderson Varejao and maybe Carlos Boozer are the only big names that are likely to hit free agency. Boozer has already stated that he’s going to opt out, but he may decide against it if he doesn’t come back strong from his injuries. Turkoglu — the reigning Most Improved Player — is having another nice season, but he’s not playing quite as well as last year. Still, he can command more than the $7.3 million he’s due to make next season. Varejao could stay with the Cavs and make $6.2 million next season, but he and his agent (Dan Fegan) have been looking for more. Varejao wants a long term deal but it seems he and the Cavs disagree on how much he’s actually worth.
For the most part, guys in this group are going to be conservative and play out their contracts.
Al Harrington said he wanted out, and the Warriors have swung a deal to send the forward to the Knicks for Jamal Crawford.
Harrington went public with a trade demand just before the start of the season after privately urging Golden State to move him for months. New York had immediate interest, seeing the versatile and mobile Harrington as an ideal frontcourt fit in new coach Mike D’Antoni’s up-tempo system.
It will require the Knicks to part with Crawford, their leading scorer and another player they had pegged to flourish under D’Antoni. The Warriors, according to NBA front-office sources, see Crawford as a versatile guard who, although not a pure floor leader, can function well in coach Don Nelson’s system while Monta Ellis recovers from ankle surgery — and in tandem with Ellis once he returns.
Yet it’s believed that Walsh has multiple motivations for re-acquiring one of his favorites. Another sizable lure is Harrington’s contract, which pays him $9.2 million this season, $10 million next season and expires after the 2009-10 campaign. That meshes with New York’s intent to slice payroll and get as far under the salary cap as possible for the highly anticipated free-agent summer of 2010 to join the bidding for Cleveland’s LeBron James.
Crawford has a player option after this season that would extend his contract by two years and $19.4 million. He is likely to exercise that option, so the Knicks were smart to move him if the main goal is to cut salary prior to the summer of 2010, when a number of high-profile free agents may hit the market.
The combo guard is playing the best ball of his career, and at 28, he is in his prime. He should be a nice fit in Golden State with or without Monta Ellis at his side. Crawford can run the point, but his natural position is off guard. He’s a volume shooter, as he has only shot better than 42% once in his career. But when he gets hot, he’s an unstoppable scorer.
Al Harrington has seen his numbers decline over the last few seasons after falling out of favor with Don Nelson. He should be a good fit as a power forward in Mike D’Antoni’s up-tempo attack. He’s athletic and can hit the long ball pretty effectively. I’m not sure what this means for David Lee, who plays the same position as Harrington (albeit in a very different way). It’s possible that the Knicks will package Lee with Zach Randolph or Eddy Curry in order to sweeten the pot for potential trade partners. Getting rid of either contract would go a long way to clearing serious cap space in the near future.