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2009 NBA Preview: Impact Rookies

Every year, first-year players greatly impact the NBA regular season. They tend to thrive on bad teams for two reasons: 1) the best players generally go early in the draft to struggling franchises, and 2) those teams need their services so they play heavy minutes. In fact, over the last three years, the players that made the All-Rookie First Team played an average of 29.0 minutes per game. Playing time is opportunity, and with opportunity comes production.

Over that span, players that were named to the All-Rookie First Team played on teams with a combined 500-730 (.407) record. Only four players — Andrea Bargnani and Jorge Garbajosa on the 2006-07 Raptors, Luis Scola on the 2007-08 Rockets and Michael Beasley on the 2008-09 Heat — played on teams with a winning record. The other 11 players were on teams that averaged 25 wins.

Looking ahead to the 2009-10 NBA season, there are a number of rookies that will get big minutes on bad teams. I’m going to rank them in order of what I perceive to be their talent plus their opportunity, because a rookie needs both to succeed in his first year. Fantasy hoopsters should take note: Rookies can be great picks on draft day, if you know which ones to pick.

1. Blake Griffin, Clippers
In the preseason, Griffin is averaging 14.7 points and 8.5 rebounds in 28.5 minutes per game. The Clippers found a taker for Zach Randolph to clear the way for Griffin to start at power forward, and he should be a fixture there for the next few years. I expect he’ll get 33-35 minutes per game during the regular season, so 16-17 points and 9+ rebounds are a reasonable expectation. From a fantasy perspective, he’s currently PF19 off the board, but will likely finish as the PF11 or better if he stays healthy. 10/27 Update: He didn’t stay healthy. Griffin will miss six weeks with a stress fracture in his knee.

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Raiders’ Seymour returns shot at Giants’ Pierce

Following the Raiders’ embarrassing 44-7 loss to the Giants in Week 5, New York linebacker Antonio Pierce said that the game felt like a “scrimmage” and that Oakland essentially didn’t give much of an effort.

But when the G-Men were steamrolled by the Saints in Week 6, Raiders defensive end Richard Seymour had a few choice words for Pierce.

From NFL Fanhouse.com:

“They got what they deserved this week,” Seymour said to the Daily News about the Giants’ 48-27 loss to the Saints. “I’m not sure how many points the Saints scored on them, but if I’m not mistaken, it was about half a hundred points. [Pierce]’s got enough to chew on with that.”

Granted, the Giants are still 5-1 and atop the NFC East, while the Raiders are 2-4 following their impressive victory over the Eagles last Sunday. But it’s kind of ironic that Pierce criticized the Raiders for a lack of effort and then the Giants went out and got their ass handed to them the following Sunday.

Pierce should have spent a little less time taking jabs at the Raiders and a little more time studying film on Drew Brees.

LeBron reaches out to Terrelle Pryor

Cleveland Cavs’ star LeBron James has recently started reaching out to Ohio State sophomore quarterback Terrelle Pryor, who has come under criticism lately after his poor performance in the Buckeyes’ loss to Purdue last Saturday.

From ESPN.com:

“[I’m] trying to mentor him and get him through ‘life in the spotlight,’ which I’ve been through,” James said after a preseason game in Columbus on Wednesday night.

James said he has been speaking to Pryor on the phone in recent weeks to try to help him deal with celebrity at a young age. James knows something about that, since he appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated under the headline “The Chosen One” while he was still in high school in Akron, Ohio.

“Being that No. 1 guy, how do you adjust to it and how do you get through it and still perform at a high level?” James said. “Sometimes it can be very difficult on [a young athlete]. I’m trying to be that guy who can really help him get through a lot of situations which he’s never seen before but now he’s seeing and understanding.”

Pryor said the bad game at Purdue had helped open his eyes.

“That opened me up to the world and opened me up to myself and who I am as a person,” Pryor said. “I think maybe that was the best thing to happen to us last week. Maybe we’ll learn from it. We’re having real good practices, and we’re just trying to get the fans back on our side.”

Pryor seems to have a good head on his shoulders and generally wants to excel at the collegiate level. Hopefully he doesn’t succumb to the pressure and criticism of the media and tanks the rest of his career because he has plenty of athletic talent.

This is when Jim Tressel needs to step up and do everything he can throughout the week and on Saturdays to ensure that Pryor succeeds. If that means scaling back the playbook and giving Pryor only 10 plays to master, then so be it. Spreading out the offense and trying to fit a round peg in a square hole won’t work and Pryor will only continue to struggle.

It’s great that a star like LeBron is willing to help a student athlete out. But he isn’t going to be around Pryor all the time like Tressel is. Maybe Tressel’s future at Ohio State should be tied to how Pryor develops over the next couple years. (If it isn’t already, that is.)

NFL Week 7 Odds & Point Spreads

Along with the complete list of odds, here are the four marquee matchups on the Week 7 schedule in the NFL.

Vikings (6-0) at Steelers (4-2), 1:00PM ET
Up to this point, nobody has been able to stop the combination of Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson. Defenses are loading the box in efforts to stop Peterson, and Favre is beating them with his pinpoint accuracy. The Vikings’ offensive line has also been outstanding, which obviously has played into how much success the team is currently having. But if there’s one defense that could shackle Minnesota’s offense, it’s Pittsburgh. Troy Polamalu is healthy again and the Steelers have been awfully tough to beat at home throughout the years. The Vikings gave up several big plays in the fourth quarter to the Ravens and Ben Roethlisberger has proven that he can make things happen in the vertical passing game. At 6-0, the Vikings are in good shape win or lose. But if they want to keep pace with the Saints for the top spot in the NFC, then they need to keep winning.
Odds: Steelers –4.

Bears (3-2) at Bengals (4-2), 4:15PM ET
Both of these teams are reeling after suffering defeats in Week 6. The Bears had several scoring opportunities last week against the Falcons and just never capitalized. Chicago is struggling to run the ball right now and is relying heavily on Jay Cutler and the passing game. The Bengals suffered more than just a loss last week, as defensive end Antwaan Odom suffered a season-ending injury. He was a difference maker on Cincinnati’s defense and without him, the Bengals might have trouble generating a pass rush. Both of these teams need a win right now to keep pace in their division.
Odds: Bengals –1.5.

Saints (5-0) at Dolphins (2-3), 4:15PM ET
The Dolphins have won their last two games and are fresh coming off the bye, but they’ve had issues with quarterbacks who can get the ball out of their hands quickly. They struggled to stop Peyton Manning and the Colts and Philip Rivers and the Chargers in previous weeks. The Saints are firing on all cylinders right now and won’t look past a Miami team playing with confidence under Chad Henne. Drew Brees could have another big day and as long as the Saints limit the effectiveness of Miami’s Wildcat, they should keep their undefeated record intact.
Odds: Saints –6.5.

Falcons (4-1) at Cowboys (3-2)
After the Patriots handed the Falcons their first loss in Week 3, Atlanta went into its bye hell-bent on fixing their defensive flaws. The past two weeks, the Falcons have held the 49ers to 10 points and the Bears to 14 points, respectively. They’ve also forced a combined six turnovers in those games and found a way to generate pressure. That’s not good news for Tony Romo, who has been turnover-prone at times this year and who hasn’t received the best protection from his O-line. This is a game Dallas needs to win in order to keep pace in the NFC East, especially with the Giants and Eagles both losing last week. Teams have done a great job bottling up Michael Turner, but have been unsuccessful stopping Matt Ryan. Will Wade Phillips and his defense be up to the challenge?
Odds: Cowboys –4.

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SEC suspends officials from Florida-Arkansas game

The SEC has suspended the officials that made some horrendous calls that favored Florida in their victory over Arkansas last Saturday.

From SI.com:

Referee Marc Curles’ crew called a personal foul on Arkansas defensive lineman Malcolm Sheppard in the fourth quarter as the Gators were rallying for a 23-20 victory. The league said there was no video evidence to support the call.

The same group of officials called the LSU-Georgia game earlier this month, which included a late unsportsmanlike conduct penalty the league said shouldn’t have been called.

“A series of calls that have occurred during the last several weeks have not been to the standard that we expect from our officiating crews,” SEC commissioner Mike Slive said Wednesday. “I believe our officiating program is the best in the country. However, there are times when these actions must be taken.”

SEC associate commissioner Charles Bloom said this is the first time the league has publicly suspended a football crew like this.
Good for the SEC. Those were brutal calls that affected the outcome of the game. The penalties gave the Gators excellent field position and the momentum needed for them to score and steal a win from the Razorbacks.

Granted, this won’t give Arkansas the win and Florida the loss, but hopefully the sack-less BCS voters are paying attention. The Gators should probably have one loss right now, making Alabama the undisputed No. 1 team in the nation.

Here’s video of the horrible calls:

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