Category: Free Picks (Page 2 of 4)

      Fade Material: College Football Week 9 Predictions

      October 29, 2011 /
      Oklahoma State Cowboys quarterback Brandon Weeden throws the football in the first quarter against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field in Columbia, Missouri on October 22, 2011. Oklahoma State won the game 45-24. UPI/Bill Greenblatt

      My season record stayed status quo after finishing 2-2 last week. Alabama and Texas Tech (which won outright against Oklahoma) covered but neither Arkansas nor Boise State mustered enough points against Ole Miss and Air Force, respectively. In fact, Arkansas nearly lost outright and Air Force kept things relatively close all game against the Broncos.

      My season record is now 19-11-2 and I keep rotating between feeling confident and scared out of my mind with my picks this week.

      Oklahoma @ Kansas State, 3:30PM ET
      One of two things is going to happen today. Either the Sooners are going to come out pissed off about their loss last week to Tech and absolutely crush the Wildcats or they’re going to come out flat and potentially lose outright. What I don’t like about that scenario is the unknown. We know what we’re getting out of K-State: A solid football team with a dual threat quarterback that has been disrespected by oddsmakers all season. I think the spread should be closer to 10 instead of nearly two touchdowns. I get that oddsmakers are trying to protect themselves from a potential OU rout, but I still like Bill Snyder’s team today at home.
      THE PICK: KANSAS STATE +13.5

      Baylor @ Oklahoma State, 3:30PM ET
      It’s funny, the Cowboys keep rolling but the lines in their games always seem pretty reasonable for a team that’s 7-0 and 6-1 against the spread this season. It appears as though the sharp bettors keep going against them and it’s keeping the spreads low. I realize that Baylor can score on anyone and OK State’s defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed. But the Bears’ D isn’t anything to right home about either and if it’s going to be a shootout, I like Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon on their home turf, especially with Baylor coming off a humbling 55-28 loss to Texas A&M.
      THE PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE -14

      Colorado @ Arizona State, 6:30PM ET
      I thought the Buffaloes were going to keep things close at home against a banged up Oregon team. Instead, Colorado was crushed 45-2 in one of the more pathetic showings of any college team this year. With quarterback Tyler Hansen (concussion) not expected to play and redshirt freshman Nick Hirschman under center, I like ASU to roll. The Sun Devils haven’t exactly been lighting the stat sheet up but Colorado has been outscored by an average of 26.5 points in its four road losses this season. Brock Osweiler should have himself a big night.
      THE PICK: ARIZONA STATE -31

      Clemson @ Georgia Tech, 8:00PM ET
      Everyone keeps waiting for Clemson to implode and all they keep doing is winning. BIG. I was among the contingent that believed the Tigers would fall apart at some point but looking at their upcoming schedule they have a great opportunity to finish the season undefeated if they can play well on the road. Today marks the first of three road games that Clemson has left on its schedule. A trip to Atlanta to play Paul Johnson’s Yellow Jackets is never easy, but Georgia Tech has issues. Quarterback Tevin Washington has thrown four interceptions over the last three games, starting center Jay Finch is out with an injured leg and opponents have started to exploit Johnson’s run-happy offense. I have no qualms about laying the points with Clemson. I just hope the hook doesn’t burn me.
      THE PICK: CLEMSON TIGERS –3.5

      Last Week: 2-2
      Season Record: 19-11-2

      Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

      College Football, External Sports, Free Picks

      Fade Material: NFL Week 6 Predictions

      October 16, 2011 /
      Green Bay Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb (L) and quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) run off the field after their game against the New Orleans Saints at Lambeau Field on September 8, 2011 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers won 42-34. UPI/Brian Kersey

      Following my disastrous 0-4 effort in Week 4, I rallied to hit three-of-four last Sunday. The Bills, Patriots and Packers all covered while my lone loser, the Giants, had a day to forget against the Seahawks.

      That runs my sterling season record to 8-12 with a chance for .500 with a perfect Sunday today. (Ha! Perfect Sunday. Like those even exist…)

      San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions, 1:00PM ET
      I’ve been knee-deep in Lions’ Kool-Aid for weeks now, but I think 4.5 points is too much for them to give up against a 4-1 Niners team that is playing extremely well defensively. Detroit is coming off an emotional win against Chicago on Monday night and while I don’t expect the Lions to overlook the Niners today, I think this is a field goal game either way. I like San Fran and the points more than I dislike the Lions if that makes sense.
      THE PICK: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +4.5

      St. Louis Rams @ Green Bay Packers, 1:00PM ET
      Normally double-digit dogs are safe best in the NFL. But this hasn’t been a normal year. Teams are racking up the points and we’re seeing true mismatches play out on the field. The Packers got a scare from the Falcons in the first half last week and I think that will serve them well today. The Rams may be coming off their bye but I’m pretty sure Albert Pujols and John Jay are starting at cornerback. If Rodgers doesn’t throw for over 400 yards he should be embarrassed. Embarrassed I say!
      THE PICK: GREEN BAY PACKERS –14

      New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Bucs, 4:15PM ET
      The Saints make me nervous a little because this is their third-straight road game and they have a tendency to play more conservative away from the Superdome. That said, if they get rolling in this one Tampa Bay doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace. I hate laying nearly a touchdown with New Orleans but the Saints are 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games against the Bucs while the road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these two squads. Thus, I’m not going to over think this one.
      THE PICK: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS –6

      Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears, 8:20PM ET
      I don’t trust the Bears as far as I can throw them. Probably because every time I pick them they screw me, but that’s a personal problem between them and me and I won’t get you involved. Jared Allen may have a field day against Chicago’s suspect offensive line and Jay Cutler seems to be losing faith in Mike Martz’s offense by the week. The Vikings have played better than their 1-4 record would indicate but they need to play a full four quarters if they’re going to pick up a win tonight. With the Bears coming off a short week, I think Minnesota can win with Adrian Peterson playing havoc with Chicago’s thin defensive line. (A line that won’t have Julius Peppers.)
      THE PICK: MINNESOTA VIKINGS +3

      Last Week: 3-1
      Season: 8-12

      Check out Bullz-Eye.com for a list of Sunday’s NFL Odds.

      External Sports, Free Picks, NFL

      Fade Material: College Football Week 7 Predictions

      October 15, 2011 /
      REFILE – CORRECTING ID Wisconsin Badgers head coach Paul Chryst coaches against the TCU Horned Frogs during the third quarter of the 97th Rose Bowl game in Pasadena, California, January 1, 2011. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

      Well I’ll be a son of monkey’s uncle: I had my first 4-0 Saturday of the year last week. Never thought I’d see the day.

      I ate that chalk like it was no tomorrow with picks of Alabama (-29), Stanford (-29) and LSU (-13), but they all covered somewhat easily. My best pick wound up being a 10-point dog in Wake Forest, which won outright at home against Florida State. That pushes my season record to 14-8-2, which can only mean one thing: A 0-4 Saturday is right around the corner…

      Indiana @ Wisconsin, 12:00PM ET
      This is one of those games when you look at the line and say, “Thirty-nine and a half points? Indiana is getting 39.5 points? Oh, they have to cover that spread. All they need to do is show up!” Then you check the score two minutes in and it’s already 14-0 Wisconsin and they’re lining up to kick a field goal to add to their lead. The last time these two teams met, the Badgers put up 83 points on the Hoosiers in Indiana, without Russell Wilson under center. So no, I don’t mind laying the nearly 40 points with Wisconsin. If I get burned on a backdoor cover so be it. But this one won’t be close and it’s just a matter of when the Badgers will take their foot off the gas in the second half. Hopefully it’s well after they have a cover in hand.
      THE PICK: WISCONSIN –39.5

      South Carolina @ Mississippi State, 12:20PM ET
      The Bulldogs have been one of the nation’s biggest disappointments after winning nine games a season ago. They started the year ranked in the top 20 but have quickly faded from memory. While South Carolina has one of the most feared running back-receiver duos in the country courtesy of Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffrey, I think this is the one day Mississippi State raises its game and pulls off the upset. The Gamecocks had to suffer through some turmoil early this week when Stephen Garcia was finally given the boot and now they have to hit the road against a SEC opponent looking for one signature victory to turn their season around. I think the Bulldogs get that victory here, although take the field goal as insurance.
      THE PICK: MISSISSIPPI STATE +3

      Oklahoma State @ Texas, 3:30PM ET
      Last Saturday was the first time all year that Texas faced an offense that could put points on the board and the Longhorns were absolutely crushed by high-powered Oklahoma. Even though they return to Austin this week, things don’t get any easier for Mack Brown and Co. The Cowboys own the nation’s top-ranked scoring offense, averaging more than 51 points per game. Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon should have a field day against a Texas secondary that was lit up by Landry Jones last weekend. Even though the Longhorns hold a 14-2 advantage over the Cowboys in Austin, I think it’s going to be a long day for Texas.
      THE PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE –7

      Idaho @ New Mexico State, 8:00PM ET
      For my “Who cares?” pick of the week, I’m going with the Vandals, who are 5-1 against the spread in their last six trips to New Mexico State and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Aggies. The road team is also 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these two squads while the underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 overall meetings. For whatever reason this game stood out to be as a mistake by the oddsmakers (not that they make mistakes). I like Idaho to roll.
      THE PICK: IDAHO +1

      Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

      College Football, External Sports, Free Picks

      Fade Material: NFL Week 5 Predictions

      October 9, 2011 /
      New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning calls a play at the line of scrimmage against the St. Louis Rams during the first quarter of their NFL football game in East Rutherford, New Jersey, September 19, 2011. REUTERS/Mike Segar (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

      Oh, how I crashed and burned in glorious fashion last Sunday.

      I picked the Cowboys, who coughed up a 27-3 lead to the Lions.

      I had the Bears, who were covering with just over a minute to play before they allowed Cam “Backdoor Cover” Newton to waltz right down the field and score a meaningless touchdown on a fourth-and-goal with just seconds remaining.

      I had the Cardinals, who were beating the Giants with five minutes remaining in the game before losing and finally, I had the Broncos, who were promptly hammered by the Packers in Green Bay.

      For those scoring at home, that was an 0-4 Sunday, which runs my season record to 5-11 on the year. If you’re not cashing these puppies in, then I highly recommend you start doing so. The pickings don’t get any better than this…

      Eagles @ Bills, 1:00PM ET
      The Eagles’ offensive line, secondary, and run defense have struggled mightily over the last three weeks and yet Michael Vick and Co. still find themselves as 3-point road favorites in Buffalo. What a slap in the face to a good Bills team, which got a lesson in humility last Sunday in Cincinnati. Buffalo is a better team right now than Philadelphia, plain and simple. So I’ll gladly take the points with the home dog.
      THE PICK: BILLS +3

      Seahawks @ Giants, 1:00PM ET
      I’m going to eat a lot of chalk today but I don’t really mind. The Seahawks may have played well in the second half last week against the Falcons, but Atlanta inexplicably went to a shell defense in the third quarter and completely took its foot off the gas offensively. That allowed Tarvaris Jackson and the Seahawks to get back into a game they should have been blown out in. I thought Eli Manning and the Giants would suffer a letdown last Sunday in Arizona and for three and a half quarters, it looked like they would. But his New York team is playing with a ton of confidence right now and I like the G-Men to roll against a Seattle squad that is brutal on the road.
      THE PICK: GIANTS –9.5.

      Jets @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET
      I’m highly aware that the Jets went into Foxboro during the playoffs last season and beat the Patriots in impressive fashion. But Mark Sanchez and the Jets also have mystical powers that apparently only work in the postseason. During the regular season, Sanchez is liable to throw for 76 yards and two interceptions in any given game. New York can’t run the ball and has major issues on offense. If the Patriots get up big, don’t expect Bill Belichick to let up after his team was embarrassed in Buffalo after squandering a 21-0 first half lead. I think this game will be more like the 45-3 thrashing the Pats served the Jets in the regular season last year than the New England’s home playoff loss a few months later.
      THE PICK: PATRIOTS –7.5.

      Packers @ Falcons, 8:20PM ET
      This the second big mismatch on the Week 5 schedule behind Jets-Patriots. Forget the fact that the Packers went into Atlanta last year and drubbed the Falcons 48-21 in the playoffs. Green Bay is simply leaps and bounds better than Atlanta at this point in the 2011 season. The Falcons have major issues along the offensive line and Aaron Rodgers will feast on the likes of Dunta Robinson in the passing game. I think it was a bad omen that the Falcons blew a 27-7 lead last week in Seattle. They may have won the game but the coaching staff gets too predictable and too conservative once this team builds a lead. Fortunately for Mike Smith and Co, the Falcons probably won’t have too many leads come Sunday night.
      THE PICK: PACKERS –5.5

      Last Week: 0-4
      Season: 5-11

      Check out Bullz-Eye.com for a list of Sunday’s NFL Odds.

      External Sports, Free Picks, NFL

      Fade Material: 2011 College Football Week 6 Predictions

      October 8, 2011 /
      Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck scrambles for first quarter yardage during play against Virginia Tech in the 2011 Discover Orange Bowl NCAA football game in Miami, January 3, 2011. REUTERS/Hans Deryk (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

      If you haven’t hopped on this gravy train yet then shame on you because these picks are crashing and burning on a weekly basis now. After my 1-2-1 effort in Week 5, my season record is 10-8-2 but I’m now 4-7-1 over the past three weeks. It’s only a matter of time before that season record of mine gets below .500 and I’m providing true “Fade Material.”

      Here are my picks for Week 6. I see a couple of backdoor covers and one underdog that should be down by 21 points by the end of the first quarter…

      Florida State @ Wake Forest, 12:30PM ET
      The Seminoles are having a hell of a time trying to run the ball (they’re 115th in the nation in rushing offense) and injuries are starting to mount for FSU. Meanwhile, Wake Forest has won three straight games for the first time since 2007 and quarterback Tanner Price is off to the best four-game start in school history (1,119 yards). The ‘Noles are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games against the Demon Deacons, while the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams.
      THE PICK: WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS +10

      Florida @ LSU, 3:30PM ET
      It’s going to be a long day for freshman quarterback Jeff Driskel, who is subbing for the injured Jeff Brantley in Baton Rouge today. LSU is allowing just 12.8 points per game and is coming off a game in which it allowed just 155 total yards in a win over Kentucky. The Gators are just 2-6-1 against the spread versus a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last five October games. I doubt LSU will roll but I don’t envision Florida scoring more than 10 points.
      THE PICK: LSU TIGERS –13

      Vanderbilt @ Alabama, 7:00PM ET
      I’m choking on chalk this weekend but I don’t care. Vanderbilt is heading in the right direction under first-year coach James Franklin but very little is going to slow down this ‘Bama team from making a run at the national championship. The Tide are 15-1 all-time against Vanderbilt at Bryant-Denny Stadium and is outscoring opponents 45-8 in the fourth quarter this season. Nick Saban’s team doesn’t let up and even though this is a huge point spread, I like ‘Bama to produce a blowout for homecoming week in Tuscaloosa.
      THE PICK: ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE -29

      Colorado @ Stanford, 7:30PM ET
      Oddsmakers keep jacking up the point spread on Stanford and the Cardinal keeps covering. Thus, there’s no reason to hop off the Andrew Luck bandwagon now. Stanford is 6-0-1 against the number in their last seven conference games and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Meanwhile, the Buffs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog of 10.5 points or greater.
      THE PICK: STANFORD CARDINAL -29

      Last Week: 1-2-1
      Season: 10-8-2

      Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

      College Football, External Sports, Free Picks

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