Fade Material: College Football Week 7 Predictions

REFILE – CORRECTING ID Wisconsin Badgers head coach Paul Chryst coaches against the TCU Horned Frogs during the third quarter of the 97th Rose Bowl game in Pasadena, California, January 1, 2011. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

Well I’ll be a son of monkey’s uncle: I had my first 4-0 Saturday of the year last week. Never thought I’d see the day.

I ate that chalk like it was no tomorrow with picks of Alabama (-29), Stanford (-29) and LSU (-13), but they all covered somewhat easily. My best pick wound up being a 10-point dog in Wake Forest, which won outright at home against Florida State. That pushes my season record to 14-8-2, which can only mean one thing: A 0-4 Saturday is right around the corner…

Indiana @ Wisconsin, 12:00PM ET
This is one of those games when you look at the line and say, “Thirty-nine and a half points? Indiana is getting 39.5 points? Oh, they have to cover that spread. All they need to do is show up!” Then you check the score two minutes in and it’s already 14-0 Wisconsin and they’re lining up to kick a field goal to add to their lead. The last time these two teams met, the Badgers put up 83 points on the Hoosiers in Indiana, without Russell Wilson under center. So no, I don’t mind laying the nearly 40 points with Wisconsin. If I get burned on a backdoor cover so be it. But this one won’t be close and it’s just a matter of when the Badgers will take their foot off the gas in the second half. Hopefully it’s well after they have a cover in hand.

South Carolina @ Mississippi State, 12:20PM ET
The Bulldogs have been one of the nation’s biggest disappointments after winning nine games a season ago. They started the year ranked in the top 20 but have quickly faded from memory. While South Carolina has one of the most feared running back-receiver duos in the country courtesy of Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffrey, I think this is the one day Mississippi State raises its game and pulls off the upset. The Gamecocks had to suffer through some turmoil early this week when Stephen Garcia was finally given the boot and now they have to hit the road against a SEC opponent looking for one signature victory to turn their season around. I think the Bulldogs get that victory here, although take the field goal as insurance.

Oklahoma State @ Texas, 3:30PM ET
Last Saturday was the first time all year that Texas faced an offense that could put points on the board and the Longhorns were absolutely crushed by high-powered Oklahoma. Even though they return to Austin this week, things don’t get any easier for Mack Brown and Co. The Cowboys own the nation’s top-ranked scoring offense, averaging more than 51 points per game. Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon should have a field day against a Texas secondary that was lit up by Landry Jones last weekend. Even though the Longhorns hold a 14-2 advantage over the Cowboys in Austin, I think it’s going to be a long day for Texas.

Idaho @ New Mexico State, 8:00PM ET
For my “Who cares?” pick of the week, I’m going with the Vandals, who are 5-1 against the spread in their last six trips to New Mexico State and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Aggies. The road team is also 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these two squads while the underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 overall meetings. For whatever reason this game stood out to be as a mistake by the oddsmakers (not that they make mistakes). I like Idaho to roll.

Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

Follow the Scores Report editors on Twitter @clevelandteams and @bullzeyedotcom.

Fade Material: 2011 College Football Week 6 Predictions

Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck scrambles for first quarter yardage during play against Virginia Tech in the 2011 Discover Orange Bowl NCAA football game in Miami, January 3, 2011. REUTERS/Hans Deryk (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

If you haven’t hopped on this gravy train yet then shame on you because these picks are crashing and burning on a weekly basis now. After my 1-2-1 effort in Week 5, my season record is 10-8-2 but I’m now 4-7-1 over the past three weeks. It’s only a matter of time before that season record of mine gets below .500 and I’m providing true “Fade Material.”

Here are my picks for Week 6. I see a couple of backdoor covers and one underdog that should be down by 21 points by the end of the first quarter…

Florida State @ Wake Forest, 12:30PM ET
The Seminoles are having a hell of a time trying to run the ball (they’re 115th in the nation in rushing offense) and injuries are starting to mount for FSU. Meanwhile, Wake Forest has won three straight games for the first time since 2007 and quarterback Tanner Price is off to the best four-game start in school history (1,119 yards). The ‘Noles are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games against the Demon Deacons, while the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams.

Florida @ LSU, 3:30PM ET
It’s going to be a long day for freshman quarterback Jeff Driskel, who is subbing for the injured Jeff Brantley in Baton Rouge today. LSU is allowing just 12.8 points per game and is coming off a game in which it allowed just 155 total yards in a win over Kentucky. The Gators are just 2-6-1 against the spread versus a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last five October games. I doubt LSU will roll but I don’t envision Florida scoring more than 10 points.

Vanderbilt @ Alabama, 7:00PM ET
I’m choking on chalk this weekend but I don’t care. Vanderbilt is heading in the right direction under first-year coach James Franklin but very little is going to slow down this ‘Bama team from making a run at the national championship. The Tide are 15-1 all-time against Vanderbilt at Bryant-Denny Stadium and is outscoring opponents 45-8 in the fourth quarter this season. Nick Saban’s team doesn’t let up and even though this is a huge point spread, I like ‘Bama to produce a blowout for homecoming week in Tuscaloosa.

Colorado @ Stanford, 7:30PM ET
Oddsmakers keep jacking up the point spread on Stanford and the Cardinal keeps covering. Thus, there’s no reason to hop off the Andrew Luck bandwagon now. Stanford is 6-0-1 against the number in their last seven conference games and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Meanwhile, the Buffs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog of 10.5 points or greater.

Last Week: 1-2-1
Season: 10-8-2

Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

2010 Championship Week Odds

TUSCALOOSA, AL - NOVEMBER 26: Quarterback Cam Newton  of the Auburn Tigers looks to the sidelines for a play call against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium on November 26, 2010 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 19 South Carolina, 4:00PM ET
About midway through the second quarter of last week’s Auburn-Alabama game, every college football fan around the nation was wondering how things would play out in the BCS once the Tigers lost. Then Cam Newton found his Superman cape and promptly led Auburn to its greatest comeback of the season. But it was nothing new for the Tigers, who have trailed many times before in big games throughout the year, only to rally and put the clamps on their opponents in the fourth quarter. One of those rallies came against South Carolina earlier this season when they trailed 20-7 midway through the second. The Tigers went on to score two touchdowns and blanked the Gamecocks in the fourth to win, 35-27. Now the two schools meet in the SEC Championship and Auburn will once again put its national title hopes on the line. It’s pretty simple: Win and play for a national championship or lose and hope that TCU still disgusts voters.

No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 13 Nebraska, 8:00PM ET
Nebraska hasn’t won a Big 12 title since 1999 and with its move to the Big Ten next year, this will be the Huskers’ final chance to win one. They’ve have an opportunity on Saturday to avenge their 13-12 loss to Texas in last year’s Big 12 title game, a heartbreaking defeat that still is on Bo Pelini’s mind. Oklahoma earned a meeting with Nebraska thanks to its wild 47-41 victory over Oklahoma State last Saturday. The win created a three-way tie atop the South Division along with OK State and Texas A&M, but the Sooners go the nod because they were the highest ranked BCS team of the trio. Will Nebraska’s defense be able to contain Landry Jones and DeMarco Murray? Furthermore, will Taylor Martinez be healthy enough to play? He’s day-to-day with an ankle injury and even if he’s healthy enough to go, sophomore Cody Green could see some playing time.

No. 21 Florida State vs. No. 15 Virginia Tech, 7:45PM ET
What a wild ride the Hokies have been on this year. They lost to Boise State 33-30 in the opener and then followed up that performance by losing to James Madison 21-16 the next week. But then Frank Beamer’s squad got it together and rattled off 10 straight to get to where they are now, which is a date with Florida State in the ACC title game. The Seminoles and Hokies have combined to win three of the five ACC championship games throughout the year. FSU has its own hot streak going, as they’ve won three in a row following a two-game skid. VA Tech’s Tyrod Taylor has gotten more accurate as a passer throughout the season, while FSU’s Christian Ponder has battled through nagging injuries and now wants a crack at the Orange Bowl. If Ponder and the Seminoles are to be victorious, they better figure out a way to score in the fourth quarter because VA Tech’s defense (which has allowed just six fourth-quarter touchdowns this season) has been outstanding in crunch time this year.

No. 2 Oregon vs. Oregon State, 3:30PM ET
Oh, to be Oregon State. Not only do the Beavers have to figure out a way to slow Oregon’s explosive offense, but they’re also facing a Ducks team that can’t be too pleased that Auburn replaced them as the No. 1 team in the BCS standings last week. The plan is simple for Oregon: Beat Oregon State in the 114th edition of the Civil War and play for a national title. Lose, and then hope that TCU doesn’t leapfrog them in the rankings. But Oregon State won’t be a pushover, as a win would make the Beavers bowl eligible. Jacquizz Rodgers and company have been pesky this year against top ranked teams, so don’t assume that it’s going to be a blowout in Corvallis this weekend.

2010 Championship Week Odds & Point Spreads

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2010 College Football Week 12 Odds

November 8, 2008: Texas A&M wide receiver Ryan Tannehill #17 is tackled by Oklahoma defensive back Lendy Holmes #11 after a 55 yard reception in the second quarter of the NCAA Football game between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field in College Station, TX. The Sooners defeated the Aggies 66-28. Tom Mayes/CSM Photo via Newscom

No. 8 Nebraska @ No. 19 Texas A&M, 8:00PM ET
The Aggies certainly look like a different team since the benching of preseason SEC Offensive Player of the Year Jerrod Johnson was benched for Ryan Tannehill. After three straight losses in the middle of the season, Texas A&M has won four in a row thanks to Tannehill. The Aggies will have their work cut out for them this week against Nebraska, which is 10th in the nation in scoring defense.

No. 9 Ohio State @ No. 20 Iowa, 3:30PM ET
The Hawkeyes are likely out of contention in the Big Ten after losing to Northwestern last Saturday. But that doesn’t mean they won’t take solace in ruining the Buckeyes’ title hopes. Ohio State needs two more wins to claim at least a share of the Big Ten title and there’s only two teams left on its schedule: Iowa and Michigan next Saturday at the Horseshoe. The Buckeyes have won six of their past seven games against the Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium, so they’re traveling to a place where they’ve had success in the past.

No. 16 Virginia Tech @ No. 24 Miami, 3:30PM ET
After losing to Boise State and James Madison to start the year, the Hokies have rattled off eight in a row. Now they can clinch the ACC Coastal Division on Saturday if they can beat conference rival Miami. Jacory Harris still isn’t healthy enough to suit up, so that means Stephen Morris will make his third straight start for the Hurricanes, who have won two in a row. The last time these two teams played in Miami, the Canes beat the Hokies 16-14 in 2008.

No. 13 Arkansas @ Mississippi State, 7:00PM ET
For the second week in a row, the Bulldogs will have their hands full with a tough SEC foe. A week after losing to Alabama, Mississippi State will host an Arkansas team that ranks third in the nation in passing offense and 13th in points scored. Considering what Alabama’s Greg McElroy (227 yards, 2 TDs) did against the Bulldogs’ last week, it’s scary to think what Ryan Mallett can accomplish this week. Still, if Mississippi State can get its rushing attack back on track after being held below their average last week, the Bulldogs will make a game of it in Starkville.

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2010 College Football Week 10 Odds

Dec 23, 2009, San Diego, CA, USA; Utah Utes players react after their 37-27 victory over the California Golden Bears in the 2009 Poinsettia Bowl at Qualcomm Stadium. Photo via Newscom

No. 3 TCU @ No. 5 Utah, 3:30PM ET
Let me get this straight. ABC is going to show Nebraska-Iowa State but not TCU-Utah? ESPN is going to show Illinois-Michigan but not TCU-Utah? ESPN3 is going to show Nevada-Idaho but not TCU-Utah? I’m sure there’s nothing these networks can do contractually to show what they want to show, but what a rip off for college football fans. This is the best game of the week and nobody outside of the Mountain West coverage areas will see it. Last year the Utes traveled to TCU and were gorilla-smacked 55-28. But two years ago in Utah, the Utes held the Horned Frogs to just 10 points in a 13-10 victory. Can Utah pull off the upset in their biggest home game of the year? Or can TCU use this game as a catalyst to get into the BCS title game should Oregon or Auburn (or Boise State for that matter) fall? In what will be the Utes last year in the MWC before they move to the Pac-12, this should be one heck of a bout.

No. 6 Alabama @ No. 10 LSU, 3:30PM ET
It’s rare that a huge SEC matchup like this takes a backseat to a Mountain West game, but with TCU and Utah playing this Saturday it’s easy to forget that Bama and LSU will square off. (Although not to SEC fans, of course.) Both teams are coming off bye weeks, although the Tide thumped Tennessee 41-10 two weeks ago and the Tigers fell to Auburn, 24-17. Alabama got the benefit of both Michigan State and Missouri losing last week and has now climbed back into title contention. A win over LSU this week on the road would catapult them into the top-5 because somebody will obviously lose between No. 4 TCU and No. 5 Utah. But they’ll have to get through LSU first, which is 14-1 under Les Miles while coming off a loss.

No. 15 Arizona @ No. 13 Stanford, 8:00PM ET
This matchup features teams tied for second place in the Pac-10, as Stanford is off to its best start in 40 years and Arizona has the tools on defense to shut down Andrew Luck and the Cardinal offense. Stanford currently is fifth in the FBS in scoring at 42.4 points, while Arizona is seventh in the nation in scoring defense at 14.4 points. Something has to give. Luck completed 19-of-26 passes for 192 yards with a touchdown and also ran for a 51-yard score in a 41-0 beatdown of Washington last Saturday. The Wildcats, who are having their best season since 1998, tipped UCLA 29-21 last Saturday. Should be a great one in the Pac-10 this weekend.

No. 18 Arkansas @ No. 19 South Carolina, 7:00PM ET
It’ll be a battle of two-loss teams in the SEC when the Razorbacks travel to Williams-Brice Stadium to take on the Gamecocks. South Carolina is in a familiar situation, as this is the third time in four seasons in which the Gamecocks are 6-2. Of course, this is usually the point in the season when things go downhill for Steve Spurrier’s squad. They lost their final five games to finish 6-6 in 2007, their final three games in 2008 to finish 7-6 and four of five last year to finish 7-6. On the other side, Ryan Mallett just lost his best receiver Greg Childs for the season. Childs suffered a patella tendon injury against Vanderbilt last week and is now done for the year. He led the team with 46 catches for 659 yards and six touchdown receptions.

2010 College Football Week 10 Opening Point Spreads

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