Fade Material: College Football Week 7 Predictions

REFILE – CORRECTING ID Wisconsin Badgers head coach Paul Chryst coaches against the TCU Horned Frogs during the third quarter of the 97th Rose Bowl game in Pasadena, California, January 1, 2011. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

Well I’ll be a son of monkey’s uncle: I had my first 4-0 Saturday of the year last week. Never thought I’d see the day.

I ate that chalk like it was no tomorrow with picks of Alabama (-29), Stanford (-29) and LSU (-13), but they all covered somewhat easily. My best pick wound up being a 10-point dog in Wake Forest, which won outright at home against Florida State. That pushes my season record to 14-8-2, which can only mean one thing: A 0-4 Saturday is right around the corner…

Indiana @ Wisconsin, 12:00PM ET
This is one of those games when you look at the line and say, “Thirty-nine and a half points? Indiana is getting 39.5 points? Oh, they have to cover that spread. All they need to do is show up!” Then you check the score two minutes in and it’s already 14-0 Wisconsin and they’re lining up to kick a field goal to add to their lead. The last time these two teams met, the Badgers put up 83 points on the Hoosiers in Indiana, without Russell Wilson under center. So no, I don’t mind laying the nearly 40 points with Wisconsin. If I get burned on a backdoor cover so be it. But this one won’t be close and it’s just a matter of when the Badgers will take their foot off the gas in the second half. Hopefully it’s well after they have a cover in hand.

South Carolina @ Mississippi State, 12:20PM ET
The Bulldogs have been one of the nation’s biggest disappointments after winning nine games a season ago. They started the year ranked in the top 20 but have quickly faded from memory. While South Carolina has one of the most feared running back-receiver duos in the country courtesy of Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffrey, I think this is the one day Mississippi State raises its game and pulls off the upset. The Gamecocks had to suffer through some turmoil early this week when Stephen Garcia was finally given the boot and now they have to hit the road against a SEC opponent looking for one signature victory to turn their season around. I think the Bulldogs get that victory here, although take the field goal as insurance.

Oklahoma State @ Texas, 3:30PM ET
Last Saturday was the first time all year that Texas faced an offense that could put points on the board and the Longhorns were absolutely crushed by high-powered Oklahoma. Even though they return to Austin this week, things don’t get any easier for Mack Brown and Co. The Cowboys own the nation’s top-ranked scoring offense, averaging more than 51 points per game. Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon should have a field day against a Texas secondary that was lit up by Landry Jones last weekend. Even though the Longhorns hold a 14-2 advantage over the Cowboys in Austin, I think it’s going to be a long day for Texas.

Idaho @ New Mexico State, 8:00PM ET
For my “Who cares?” pick of the week, I’m going with the Vandals, who are 5-1 against the spread in their last six trips to New Mexico State and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Aggies. The road team is also 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these two squads while the underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 overall meetings. For whatever reason this game stood out to be as a mistake by the oddsmakers (not that they make mistakes). I like Idaho to roll.

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