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2011 Kentucky Derby Predictions

Exercise rider Nate Quinonez gallops Kentucky Derby hopeful Twice The Appeal on the track during early morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, May 5, 2011. REUTERS/Jeff Haynes (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT HORSE RACING)

Listen, I don’t mean to brag but I’m going to anyway.

I was good last year predicting the Triple Crown – I mean, real good.

I had Paddy O’prado to place in the Kentucky Derby (he finished third) and Super Saver (the winner) listed as one of the horses to “keep your eye on.” In the Preakness, I hit Lookin’ At Lucky for the win and nailed First Dude to finish in the money, which is noteworthy since he was a 20/1 long shot to open. Finally, in the Belmont, I predicted the top three (Drosselmeyer, Fly Down, First Dude) to finish in the money, although not in the correct order.

So basically what I’m saying is that if you don’t take my picks today and wager the deed to your house, your wife and/or your dog, that’s just dumb. LET IT RIDE!!!

I’m kidding – I’m not that arrogant, although I did mange to find some luck last year in my predictions so we’ll see how I fare this year. On second thought, you may want to avoid these three…

Win: Twice The Appeal (+1000)
Like I’m going to pass on taking Calvin Borel at Churchill Downs…when he’ll be coming out of the No. 3 post position. Ha! No way. Twice The Appeal has won three of his last four races, with his latest victory coming at the Sunland Derby on March 27. He does seem a little too good to be true, but I have faith in more Borel magic happening today.

Place: Archacharch (+1200)
Why isn’t this horse receiving more love? He drew the rail on Wednesday and his odds went from +900 to +1200. Granted, the rail hasn’t produced a winner since 1988 (Winning Colors) but it still has the most victories (12) in Kentucky Derby history. It’s a prime spot and for a horse that is coming off a victory at the Arkansas Derby to be listed at +1200, this feels like a nice value. If it weren’t for Calvin Borel’s magic at Churchill Downs, I would probably peg Archarcharch to win.

Show: Dialed In (+500)
Dialed In has been the favorite all week, even though his odds continue to drop. He was listed at +350 on Monday, +300 on Tuesday, and +250 on Wednesday when the post positions were drawn. Now he’s +500, which seems like a great value to me. He won the Florida Derby in his last outing on April 3 and also took first in the Holly Bull earlier this year. The only problem is that he doesn’t have much career experience, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he won the roses on Saturday. He’s a nice-looking horse.

Chargers to pursue Panthers’ WR Steve Smith?

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Steve Smith (L) is tackled by Baltimore Ravens cornerback Josh Wilson during an NFL football game in Charlotte, North Carolina November 21, 2010. REUTERS/Chris Keane (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, the Chargers are “monitoring” the Steve Smith situation in Carolina.

The Chargers’ interest, according to people with knowledge of the situation, can be characterized as monitoring and wait-and-see. That is comparable to how they went about signing free agent safety Bob Sanders in March, letting other teams woo Sanders before making an offer to a player who wanted to be a Charger.

Teams are not allowed to conduct player business during the ongoing NFL lockout. But the Panthers were known to be shopping Smith prior to the league’s shutdown on March 11.

The Chargers landing Smith could be a product of his wanting to play in a good offense, close to his Lynwood, Calif., birthplace coupled with the team’s need for a top-flight receiver.

Smith has already cleaned out his locker in Carolina, put his house on the market and has let the Panthers know that he would like to be traded to the Chargers, Raiders or Ravens. No word yet on if he plans to burn the words “Trade Me Now” into the grass at Bank of America Stadium, but there are rumors that that is his next step.

Smith would be a nice addition to San Diego’s offense and he would certainly appreciate working with Philip Rivers, who actually resembles a professional quarterback (unlike the puss that the Panthers have been trotting onto the field over the last couple of years). He would also benefit from playing opposite Vincent Jackson and not worrying about facing constant double-teams because he’s the only playmaker in the offense.

I’m sure I’ll revisit this story once the owners and players stop fighting over fans money.

Derrick Rose’s 44 points lead Bulls to 99-82 win

Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose (R) shoots over Atlanta Hawks guard Jeff Teague in the first half of their Eastern Conference semifinal NBA basketball game in Atlanta, Georgia May 6, 2011. REUTERS/Tami Chappell (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT BASKETBALL)

No other Chicago starter scored in double digits, but it doesn’t really matter when your point guard drops 44 points on 16-for-27 shooting like Derrick Rose did in Game 3. Joakim Noah had the Rodman-esque line of two points, 15 rebounds and five blocks, while Carlos Boozer and his turf toe scored six points (on 3-of-6 shooting) in just 22 minutes. Taj Gibson picked up Boozer’s slack, posting 13 points and 11 rebounds off the bench.

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