2010 Kentucky Derby Predictions

We don’t cover much horse racing here at The Scores Report, but I always take upon myself to hand out predictions for the Triple Crown races because I know our readers depend on them. (What? They don’t? Well to hell with them then.)

It’s apparently going to be a sloppy track at Churchill Downs today, which means that it’s really anyone’s race. Last year, 50/1 long shot Mine That Bird shocked the field by winning on a sloppy track, so who knows what will happen this evening.

Here is my crack at the top 3:

Win: Sidney’s Candy (9/1)
Sidney’s Candy doesn’t have a lot of experience on dirt tracks, but he’s already beaten Lookin at Lucky (the Derby favorite) once this year and is coming off three straight wins. He reportedly looked great in workouts this week, which helps ease the concerns about his ability to compete on a dirt track. He’ll start from the No. 20 post position, which I’m indifferent about. I think he’ll lead at some point and my money is on him being ahead at the finish.

Place: Paddy O’prado (10/1)
Paddy O’prado has already competed in three races this year at distances of 1 1/8 miles, which will certainly help him at the Kentucky Derby. The only problem is that he finished seventh in his only dirt race, albeit on a sloppy track in poor conditions. He claimed victory at the G3 Palm Beach on March 6 and will be ridden by jockey Kent Desormeaux, who has three Kentucky Derby victories under his belt.

Show: Line of David (20/1)
This is my sleeper today. Line of David will start of the No. 5 post position, which has produced 12 Derby winners since 1900. He also went from allowance winner to a Grade 1 winner in a smoothness transition and seems like a breakout candidate after he upset the field at the Arkansas Derby. I don’t think he has enough to win wire to wire (which is almost impossible to do at the Kentucky Derby), but I like him to finish in the money.

Keep your eye on:

There is something about these horses that I like as well, and wouldn’t be surprised to see them finish in the money.

Lookin at Lucky (7/1)
He’s the clear favorite, but I just don’t like his starting position and the fact that he lost to Sidney’s Candy earlier in the year. The rail position hasn’t produced a winner since 1937.

Super Saver (7/1)
Super Saver seems due for a breakout and he has one huge advantage in jockey Calvin Borel, who has won two of the last three Kentucky Derby races. It seems like causal bettors are all over this horse because of Borel.

Conveyance (30/1)
I absolutely love this speedhorse, but they tend to struggle at the Derby because of the distance. I wouldn’t be surprised if he jumped out to a big lead at the front, but that backstretch is a killer for fast horses.

Awesome Act (11/1)
Awesome Act is suited to run long-distances and has shown flashes of being able to rally late.

Ice Box (8/1)
Ice Box’s trainer, Nick Zito, has already won two Kentucky Derby races and the 3-year-old colt has shown the ability to close on leaders down the stretch. The problem is that he’s coming off a six-week layoff.

American Lion (22/1)
American Lion has proven that he can run on dirt, but trainer Eoin Hartly has never won a Derby.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

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