2010 Preakness Stakes Predictions

All right, so I was a tad off in my Kentucky Derby predictions two weeks ago. Sidney’s Candy (the colt I predicted to win) ran out of gas down the stretch and I’m pretty sure Line of David (my prediction to show) still hasn’t come out of the posts yet.

That said, my choice of Paddy O’prado to place was partly correct as he finished in the money, but third instead of my prediction of second. Had he not tired down the stretch, he would have held off Ice Box for second place, but I was happy that at least one of my predictions finished in the money. I also noted that Conveyance would probably jump out to a big lead at the front – which he did – but tire down the stretch (which he also did). But that prediction doesn’t really count for anything; I’m just trying to make myself feel a little better considering the picks didn’t pan out.

I’ll try to do better today with the Preakness, as the second leg of the Triple Crown takes place at 6:15PM ET.

Win: Lookin at Lucky (3/1)
Lookin at Lucky was the favorite heading into the Kentucky Derby, but he fought traffic out at the start and finished a disappointing sixth. That said, he spotted the field over 20 lengths, battled through traffic and still managed to finish sixth. The last horse to pull off a similar feat was Curlin in 2007, who lost to Street Sense at the 133rd running of the Kentucky Derby and then won the Preakness two weeks later. Had Lucky not drawn the awful rail position for the Derby, we might have seen a different outcome. But now that he is coming out of the No. 7 post, he shouldn’t have to battle as much traffic at the start and he can run his race throughout. If he does that, he beats the field.

Place: Super Saver (2/1)
Super Saver is a versatile runner in that he can rally or stalk the pace, which is one of the keys in the Preakness. He’s coming off a victory at the Derby, is being ridden by elite jockey Calvin Borel and has a best Beyer of 104. It’s probably foolish of my to bet against Borel (who won the Preakness aboard Rachel Alexandra last year), but I still think Lookin at Lucky is the better horse. That said, with Super Saver’s credentials I wouldn’t be surprised if he emerged victorious today.

Show: First Dude (20/1)
This is my long shot sleeper today. First Dude hasn’t run in five weeks, which is problematic, but in two Grade 1 stakes races this year, he finished fifth and third. The mere fact that he’s run against good competition this year and has done well is encouraging, and even though he doesn’t have a stakes win to show for it, there’s something about him that’s special. I don’t think he has what it takes to overcome Lookin at Lucky or Super Saver, but I like him to upset the rest of the field and finish in the money.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Paddy O’prado, Dublin and/or Jackson Bend finished in the money today either.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

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